Athletic Article: League One and Two Seasons to be abandoned next week

valefan16 · May 9, 2020

The half way table doesn’t work as for example we played Mansfield twice before facing Swindon once.

For what it’s worth the top 4 now likely would have been three of those which made it, Cheltenham were flying and fancied them to nick 2nd or 3rd whilst Swindon had an easy run in on paper and great form against the bottom half sides.

Crewe had been relatively consistent and Plymouth had also come on strong with Exeter in the main falling away somewhat after we’d beaten them and Swindon followed it up they’d stuttered a bit.

No one looks at it neutral, Swindon, Crewe and Cheltenham fans are defending PPG as expected and Tranmere fans are not keen on that idea as expected. The line about “even if my team wasn’t in that position I’d think the same” is being mentioned a lot!

No one has earned promotion to be “rewarded” as it’s been mentioned, teams have had easier runs that others on paper so without everyone playing everyone else twice it’s farcical and in the same reasoning no one has yet been relegated so has deserved that punishment of that. Tranmere would rightly be angered by this, you play to what the targets are at the start... for instance if this was known to be the likely fate of the season those last weeks teams would have played at a different intensity or desire, it’s just pure luck that this has happened on week X when team X happened to be in a set position.

It’s close in L2 and let’s be honest L1s promotion race is even more chaotic in situations where differing methods of calculating PPG give different outcomes and the team 7th I think (Wycombe) could go up!

Whatever happens mind the integrity of League One and Two will be compromised if it isn’t finished on the pitch rather than promotions or relegations by a statement on twitter.

I feel this may get messy, see McAnthony is not happy and sure if relegated Tranmere will have something to say on it. In this case I have to be honest I’d keep Tranmere up on how tight it is (Bolton and Southend we’re doomed) and maybe just do the top 3 in L2 as 4th is not a set promotion spot.

Chris FGR · May 9, 2020

This integrity of the league bollocks annoys me. Means absolutely fuck all in the long run if due to exceptional circumstances this season isn't finished on the pitch. No one will care in a couple of years time.

TrinidadsNumberOne · May 10, 2020

Arsenal were promoted to the top flight in dubious circumstances 100 years ago, they finished 3 places below promotion but were promoted for mysterious reasons (surely bungs).

They've never been relegated since. And no one cares about what happened back then, even though if they hadn't been promoted, they may not have experienced the success they later experienced. So the Corona scenario and PPG isn't the first time football has done something against the grain. Although this affects even more clubs than a select few...

Indian Dan · May 10, 2020

RLC said:
You are clearly getting desperate now. Teams in play off positions should not be promoted unless a play off competition is completed.

But that doesn’t affect you at all - whether 4th is promoted. You said you be OK about being replaced by a team in the automatic promotion places, which you would be, but not by a team in 4th.

That is exactly the position you’d be in - replaced by a team in the autos. As I’ve said before, you’ve also had the advantage of there only being 3 relegated sides. It’s really your own fault you’re in this position.

dedwardp · May 10, 2020

Chris FGR said:
This integrity of the league bollocks annoys me. Means absolutely fuck all in the long run if due to exceptional circumstances this season isn't finished on the pitch. No one will care in a couple of years time.

Yes, in the grand scheme of things it is completely irrelevant. Fast forward another ten years or so and I'm sure we'd still be in either the third or fourth tier playing the likes of Tranmere, Crewe and Swindon regardless of who has shifted about a few times in the meantime.

Huntsman94 · May 10, 2020

Chris FGR said:
It does seem like a harsh situation for clubs that lose out, but can't see a better solution then ppg tbh. If you have promotion, which imo you definitely should, then it is hard to argue against relegation in a sporting context.

And at least there would be some poetic justice if Tranmere came straight back down after their behaviour on and off the pitch in last seasons play-offs.

If you think “poetic justice” is a team who worked hard in getting promoted twice in two years getting relegated in this manner, then you need to give your head a wobble.

As for morale standards, I don’t think I’ve ever seen a more ungracious team when it came to you beating us at Wembley in the National League Playoff Final. So don’t even try going down that route!

Greenacres · May 10, 2020

Huntsman94 said:
As for morale standards, I don’t think I’ve ever seen a more ungracious team when it came to you beating us at Wembley in the National League Playoff Final. So don’t even try going down that route!

Which is completely different to my experience, where I thought we were humble in victory and the Tranmere fans gracious in defeat...my memories of that occasion are tainted by the behaviour of the Tranmere fans at the end of the play-off second leg last season where they invaded our pitch after the final whistle and one of our players was assaulted. There are of course always two sides to every story.

Boletus Edulis · May 10, 2020

chipmunx said:
I think large factors in the stats from what others have posted here and elsewhere is 1) the fact that many in the BAME community are in low paid service lobs (or in the NHS) which puts them at more risk of contacting people who have it and 2) the BMI issue. Players don't tend to be in either of those groups;- but I can understand anyone BAME or not being concerned at present.
Also what constitutes as BAME? - this isn't the question you might think as my maternal Grandfather was 25% Jamaican which puts me at around 6.25%. With some people who have mixed ancestry 2/3 generations back you can tell - but in others you can't - but the percentage is still there and comes up on the ancestry tests.

I understand the logic of what you say, but without supporting data it is only a hypothesis. I am sure whether social and economic factors will be tested, but so will whether there are biological factors too. I would not blame a player not wanting to take a risk until there is definite evidence.

Huntsman94 · May 10, 2020

Greenacres said:
Which is completely different to my experience, where I thought we were humble in victory and the Tranmere fans gracious in defeat...my memories of that occasion are tainted by the behaviour of the Tranmere fans at the end of the play-off second leg last season where they invaded our pitch after the final whistle and one of our players was assaulted. There are of course always two sides to every story.

To be fair my grips was more with your players, coaching staff and owners rather than your fans to be fair. I’m not massively again pitch invasions in big moments but was unaware of an assault on one of your players which isn’t right.

Could well be rivalries resumed next season!

Devon_Lad · May 10, 2020

valefan16 said:
The half way table doesn’t work as for example we played Mansfield twice before facing Swindon once.

You can still take the season on everyone's first match against a team though..your second match against Mansfield would just be ignored.

To me, the season should just be null and voided. Nobody has secured any positions mathematically, everyone has played a completely different set of fixtures to one another so nobody can realistically argue any position has been deserved because a certain team is doing better than another based on a completely different fixture list and route. If the season cannot be completed it must be voided.

Ppg will be quickly turned over via the courts anyway, so unless they find a more satisfactory approach it'll have to be voided.

Indian Dan · May 10, 2020

I presume that if ppg is, indeed, used there can be no legal blowback. That method would have been voted on by member clubs and if passed, used to calculate the tables.

If the majority have voted yes, in accordance with EFL rules, there can be no come back

Devon_Lad · May 10, 2020

Indian Dan said:
I presume that if ppg is, indeed, used there can be no legal blowback. That method would have been voted on by member clubs and if passed, used to calculate the tables.

If the majority have voted yes, in accordance with EFL rules, there can be no come back

Yes there can because this isn't written into the charter at all. Peterborough have already said they'll be taking this to court.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1258755944021966849

valefan16 · May 10, 2020

I don’t get why it can’t be just voided without huge financial implications if it can’t be completed anyway?

TrinidadsNumberOne · May 10, 2020

Devon_Lad said:
You can still take the season on everyone's first match against a team though..your second match against Mansfield would just be ignored.

To me, the season should just be null and voided. Nobody has secured any positions mathematically, everyone has played a completely different set of fixtures to one another so nobody can realistically argue any position has been deserved because a certain is doing better than another based on a completely different fixture list and route. If the season cannot be completed it must be voided.

Ppg will be quickly turned over via the courts anyway, so unless they find a more satisfactory approach it'll have to be voided.

Null and void isn't going to happen due to the crippling costs involved that would sink PL clubs let alone the vast majority of EFL clubs. Because the season will have been for nothing, broadcasters have effectively shown a product that has never existed, they've lost billions from paused and cancelled subscriptions and they'll be demanding compensatory repayment. This isn't just BT and Sky either. It's worldwide overseas broadcasters too!

If the PL was voided for instance, they'd have to pay back £775 million (25% of games remaining of a £3.1 billion annual TV deal including overseas rights on top of domestic rights) just for this season between all 20 clubs to domestic and foreign broadcasters before penalty clauses and would then be liable to have the remaining two years of their deal vastly reduced which would have a significant impact on solidarity payments to Champ, L1, L2 and NL clubs. This would cost clubs with parachute payments between £3-8.5 million for this season, those Champ clubs without under £1 million, L1 clubs £140,000 and L2 clubs £100,000 in the form of a rebate (20% of a £119 million annual TV deal, money that not many clubs can afford in the current climate) before the next two years of reduced solidarity payments would inevitably kick in which could be an even greater sum on top of that.

Even worse, that could also couple with Sky demanding a renegotiation of the EFL TV rights simultaneously, which would see the Championship be forced to pay back 20% of this seasons deal (£20 million between them) before penalty clauses and a renegotiated TV deal kick in. For League One that would be £2.8 million between them, whilst clubs in our league it'd be £2 million between us And the sums we get for the remaining four years of the deal would end up being drastically reduced. So between now and 2024, you could genuinely argue a void season could cost a club like Exeter a figure well into the millions and that's before you have loss of gate revenue for this season and other losses added in as well.

The scary thing is that fans think broadcasters will be benevolent and waive rights fees for the sake of clubs survival. These broadcasters didn't get to a lofty position from being benevolent during their lives. If this was the pre-PL era, voiding would've happened weeks ago to no significant cost. But times have changed. Every L2 club will lose £200,000 solidarity/TV money for this year + loss of 4/5/6 home game revenue + potentially transfer income if clubs higher up in the food chain are in no position to pay for players. And that's before penalty clauses and reduced income kick in for the next four years. It will cost every club in this division at least a couple of million pounds in the long run. It's why it can't be done. I don't want it to be this way either, but TV has our entire game staring down the barrel of a loaded shotgun and we have to educate ourselves of the risk rather than demand null and void without thinking of the sheer costs. It's why many Chairmen see PPG as a far lesser evil than the catastrophic scenario of null and void in the first place!

Trapdoor · May 10, 2020

If PPG took into account the future games to be played during run-ins and compensated for results which are not possible (e.g. 2 promotion sides playing each other and both getting 3 points,) I would have a lot more sympathy for the method.

The fact is that the algorithm proposed is producing impossible results. If it does go ahead there will surely be legal challenges against it.

It's sad that they dont even try to compensate for trends like weather based performance as well. Some teams perform statistically better in worse/better weather. This would be easy to compensate for. I guess that's a far cry when they cant even produce an algorithm which doesnt do the basics correctly.

Devon_Lad · May 10, 2020

Trapdoor said:
If PPG took into account the future games to be played during run-ins and compensated for results which are not possible (e.g. 2 promotion sides playing each other and both getting 3 points,) I would have a lot more sympathy for the method.

The fact is that the algorithm proposed is producing impossible results. If it does go ahead there will surely be legal challenges against it.

It's sad that they dont even try to compensate for trends like weather based performance as well. Some teams perform statistically better in worse/better weather. This would be easy to compensate for. I guess that's a far cry when they cant even produce an algorithm which doesnt do the basics correctly.

The current proposals are ridiculous, considering when we were on the same amount of games as Cheltenham are on now (36) our ppg were better than theirs, by them playing a game less than us they are by default getting promoted. And people say that's fair..

Indian Dan · May 10, 2020

Devon_Lad said:
Yes there can because this isn't written into the charter at all. Peterborough have already said they'll be taking this to court.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1258755944021966849

He’s full of more hot air than one of Branson’s balloons.

If clubs want to chuck money at lawyers, good luck to them. Better off getting a decent striker.

It’s a shit way to settle things but all the whining from fans with a vested interest boils my piss. You appear to be in the ‘if we can’t go up then I don’t want anybody to go up’ camp. I just wish people would come out and admit they are for or against it just because of the way if affects their club and not using all this faux indignation about integrity and unfairness and, the worst of all, the ‘I’d have the same opini9n even if my club benefitted from ppg’. Utter bullshit.

Ppg is a pretty good reflection of an 80% season

Devon_Lad · May 10, 2020

TrinidadsNumberOne said:
Null and void isn't going to happen due to the crippling costs involved that would sink PL clubs let alone the vast majority of EFL clubs. Because the season will have been for nothing, broadcasters have effectively shown a product that has never existed, they've lost billions from paused and cancelled subscriptions and they'll be demanding compensatory repayment. This isn't just BT and Sky either. It's worldwide overseas broadcasters too!

If the PL was voided for instance, they'd have to pay back £775 million (25% of games remaining of a £3.1 billion annual TV deal including overseas rights on top of domestic rights) just for this season between all 20 clubs to domestic and foreign broadcasters before penalty clauses and would then be liable to have the remaining two years of their deal vastly reduced which would have a significant impact on solidarity payments to Champ, L1, L2 and NL clubs. This would cost clubs with parachute payments between £3-8.5 million for this season, those Champ clubs without under £1 million, L1 clubs £140,000 and L2 clubs £100,000 in the form of a rebate (20% of a £119 million annual TV deal, money that not many clubs can afford in the current climate) before the next two years of reduced solidarity payments would inevitably kick in which could be an even greater sum on top of that.

Even worse, that could also couple with Sky demanding a renegotiation of the EFL TV rights simultaneously, which would see the Championship be forced to pay back 20% of this seasons deal (£20 million between them) before penalty clauses and a renegotiated TV deal kick in. For League One that would be £2.8 million between them, whilst clubs in our league it'd be £2 million between us And the sums we get for the remaining four years of the deal would end up being drastically reduced. So between now and 2024, you could genuinely argue a void season could cost a club like Exeter a figure well into the millions and that's before you have loss of gate revenue for this season and other losses added in as well.

The scary thing is that fans think broadcasters will be benevolent and waive rights fees for the sake of clubs survival. These broadcasters didn't get to a lofty position from being benevolent during their lives. If this was the pre-PL era, voiding would've happened weeks ago to no significant cost. But times have changed. Every L2 club will lose £200,000 solidarity/TV money for this year + loss of 4/5/6 home game revenue + potentially transfer income if clubs higher up in the food chain are in no position to pay for players. And that's before penalty clauses and reduced income kick in for the next four years. It will cost every club in this division at least a couple of million pounds in the long run. It's why it can't be done. I don't want it to be this way either, but TV has our entire game staring down the barrel of a loaded shotgun and we have to educate ourselves of the risk rather than demand null and void without thinking of the sheer costs. It's why many Chairmen see PPG as a far lesser evil than the catastrophic scenario of null and void in the first place!

They wouldn't pay back games that have already been broadcasted, is that what your entire post is based on? Blimey haha

TrinidadsNumberOne · May 10, 2020

Devon_Lad said:
They wouldn't pay back games that have already been broadcasted, is that what your entire post is based on? Blimey haha

You do realise that the PL have been given the full amount of broadcasting money from broadcasters but have failed to show 25% of the season?

You do realise that the EFL have been given the full amount of broadcasting money from Sky but have failed to show 20% of the season?

If you hired a builder to do an extension but you gave them full payment but they only finished 75% of the project, you'd want your money back wouldn't you?

If the season was "null and void" (for nothing), penalty clauses would kick in as the league have failed to provide a champion, promoted teams, relegated teams and have received a full payment for not delivering the full value of their product. It's simple economics. There's nothing protecting the leagues money from a pandemic or act of god either. I'm pretty confident that if the leagues took legal action, they'd lose.

Devon_Lad · May 10, 2020

Indian Dan said:
He’s full of more hot air than one of Branson’s balloons.

If clubs want to chuck money at lawyers, good luck to them. Better off getting a decent striker.

It’s a shit way to settle things but all the whining from fans with a vested interest boils my piss. You appear to be in the ‘if we can’t go up then I don’t want anybody to go up’ camp. I just wish people would come out and admit they are for or against it just because of the way if affects their club and not using all this faux indignation about integrity and unfairness and, the worst of all, the ‘I’d have the same opini9n even if my club benefitted from ppg’. Utter bullshit.

Ppg is a pretty good reflection of an 80% season

No, I'd rather it was null and voided than any method, even one that saw us go up. Going up by default when you can't celebrate properly for us just to go down again or spend the next 5 years in the bottom third of league 1 without even getting the euphoria of getting promoted? No thanks. But if it is going to finish, which it shouldn't, then it has to actually be done a fair way - and ppg is by any way you look at it, the least unfair. Either do it on games that have been played not ones that haven't been played and trying to guess - Or do it from a sensible point where you just take every single result from the first time a team played another - That way nobody has played more weaker sides than others etc skewing any ppg nonsense.

Indian Dan · May 10, 2020

So you’d be happy with the season finishing and the league positions staying as they are now?

And, if you wouldn’t want to go up via ppg why are you so against it?

Boletus Edulis · May 10, 2020

TrinidadsNumberOne said:
Null and void isn't going to happen due to the crippling costs involved that would sink PL clubs let alone the vast majority of EFL clubs. Because the season will have been for nothing, broadcasters have effectively shown a product that has never existed, they've lost billions from paused and cancelled subscriptions and they'll be demanding compensatory repayment. This isn't just BT and Sky either. It's worldwide overseas broadcasters too!

If the PL was voided for instance, they'd have to pay back £775 million (25% of games remaining of a £3.1 billion annual TV deal including overseas rights on top of domestic rights) just for this season between all 20 clubs to domestic and foreign broadcasters before penalty clauses and would then be liable to have the remaining two years of their deal vastly reduced which would have a significant impact on solidarity payments to Champ, L1, L2 and NL clubs. This would cost clubs with parachute payments between £3-8.5 million for this season, those Champ clubs without under £1 million, L1 clubs £140,000 and L2 clubs £100,000 in the form of a rebate (20% of a £119 million annual TV deal, money that not many clubs can afford in the current climate) before the next two years of reduced solidarity payments would inevitably kick in which could be an even greater sum on top of that.

Even worse, that could also couple with Sky demanding a renegotiation of the EFL TV rights simultaneously, which would see the Championship be forced to pay back 20% of this seasons deal (£20 million between them) before penalty clauses and a renegotiated TV deal kick in. For League One that would be £2.8 million between them, whilst clubs in our league it'd be £2 million between us And the sums we get for the remaining four years of the deal would end up being drastically reduced. So between now and 2024, you could genuinely argue a void season could cost a club like Exeter a figure well into the millions and that's before you have loss of gate revenue for this season and other losses added in as well.

The scary thing is that fans think broadcasters will be benevolent and waive rights fees for the sake of clubs survival. These broadcasters didn't get to a lofty position from being benevolent during their lives. If this was the pre-PL era, voiding would've happened weeks ago to no significant cost. But times have changed. Every L2 club will lose £200,000 solidarity/TV money for this year + loss of 4/5/6 home game revenue + potentially transfer income if clubs higher up in the food chain are in no position to pay for players. And that's before penalty clauses and reduced income kick in for the next four years. It will cost every club in this division at least a couple of million pounds in the long run. It's why it can't be done. I don't want it to be this way either, but TV has our entire game staring down the barrel of a loaded shotgun and we have to educate ourselves of the risk rather than demand null and void without thinking of the sheer costs. It's why many Chairmen see PPG as a far lesser evil than the catastrophic scenario of null and void in the first place!

Thank you TNO for providing a comprehensive explanation for why anyone who expects the season to be null and void is going to be disappointed. Can we move on from this now please.

Boletus Edulis · May 10, 2020

I feel I should contact Nobel prize winner Daniel Kahnemann and offer this board as an experiment proving his theory of unconscious bias. The vast majority of comments, including my own, reflect the self-interest of the team the poster supports.

TrinidadsNumberOne · May 10, 2020

Boletus Edulis said:
I feel I should contact Nobel prize winner Daniel Kahnemann and offer this board as an experiment proving his theory of unconscious bias. The vast majority of comments, including my own, reflect the self-interest of the team the poster supports.

The thing is if this happened in 2016 when we were dead adrift bottom of League One, I know I wouldn't want the season voided to benefit us as I'd be disgusted we'd stayed up on a technicality despite being so hopeless and bereft of enthusiasm and ideas on the pitch. In 2015 we'd stayed up on a technicality (Notts County collapsed against a Gillingham side with nothing to play for) and I left the ground thinking we got away with a deserved relegation.

If we were in Vale/Colchester/Northampton's position, I'd obviously be more disappointed with PPG to decide the league and a scrapped playoff tournament, but then you see the risks of a void season and you have to hold your head up and say, rather than be vindictive and selfish, the good health of ALL clubs is paramount to football being prosperous and at the forefront of sporting entertainment in the country than seeing your own club be shafted by an extraordinary set of circumstances in an extraordinary period of our history.

Indian Dan · May 10, 2020

Boletus Edulis said:
I feel I should contact Nobel prize winner Daniel Kahnemann and offer this board as an experiment proving his theory of unconscious bias. The vast majority of comments, including my own, reflect the self-interest of the team the poster supports.

As indeed it should. Turkeys don’t vote for Xmas.

It’s all the pretend indignation at the unfairness of it - yet people then come up with methods and formulas which would, surprise surprise, benefit their club.

Nobody is saying it’s fair but it does need sorting and bringing the season to a conclusion. With the very real possibility of some clubs not existing much longer, there’s a good chance any league will have to be realigned anyway.

Trapdoor · May 10, 2020

If they are going to use a statistical method to calculate a ppg estimation, at least make it robust.

It's not fucking hard.

Look at what games are left to be played and generate a future ppg based on possible outcomes.

If Swindon are playing Cheltenham for example both teams cannot be awarded 3 points. There is a total of 3 or 2 points on offer, that number cannot be exceeded. Fix the fucking algorithm.

dannyc5 · May 10, 2020

Indian Dan said:
So you’d be happy with the season finishing and the league positions staying as they are now?

And, if you wouldn’t want to go up via ppg why are you so against it?

He suggests that he would be happy if only the results of playing every other team once counted. Call me cynical, but I think that maybe, just maybe this would result in his team being promoted? Whereas, PPG means his team finishes 5th.

Boletus Edulis · May 10, 2020

Indian Dan said:
As indeed it should. Turkeys don’t vote for Xmas.
.

My point exactly.

Boletus Edulis · May 10, 2020

For selfish reasons I am happy with some form of PPG. My personal preference is for the league to be finished off whenever we can play again. This might well mean we don’t go up. Then have short break and start the next season whenever. However, I cannot see us playing before 2021, not sure the EFL and clubs would be happy to be in stasis for a year.

Devon_Lad · May 10, 2020

Indian Dan said:
So you’d be happy with the season finishing and the league positions staying as they are now?

And, if you wouldn’t want to go up via ppg why are you so against it?

I'd be happy with the season being void - I'm against PPG more than anything as it's the least fair and logical. Second to that is finishing as they are now - Also not fair but at least its done on games played rather than guessing future results.

My preferred scenario is the season being voided as its incomplete. Im still trying to get my head around the comment RE money from TV companies as it makes zero sense and the % are way out given.

My second preferred option is basing it on the first half of the seasons results.

Any other solution isn't acceptable in the slightest to me and I'd hope we as a fan own club would complain and put in a legal challenge. Nobody has earned any position, positions mean nothing until a position is secured. Arguing a team has earned a position more than another team from winning a completely different set of fixtures has zero logic. This overlaps with ppg although ppg has even bigger issues as I've already showed with us against Cheltenham on that.

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Athletic Article: League One and Two Seasons to be abandoned next week

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