shoddycollins
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Time for a little update on the runners and riders:
14th - Oldham - 36 points
DDDWW
Dino Maamria
widely fancied for the drop due to some shocking performances early season and a general sense of a club in crisis, they were already steadying the ship before Christmas following a change of manager, and have enjoyed a good January to climb up to 14th place, and 14 points clear of Stevenage. Not a chance Oldham are going down.
15th - Walsall - 36 points
LWLLL
Darrel Clarke
Still quite goal-shy, and with the division's 4th worst goal difference, the Saddlers reached a high point in December where they were in the top half of the table and 'only' 8 points off the playoffs. Since that point things have taken a turn for the worse but they're still comfortably clear of relegation; the only team in the bottom half who haven't changed manager. Walsall won't go down.
16th - Cambridge - 35 points
LLDLW
Mark Bonner (caretaker)
Considered to have had a decent transfer window, Cambridge started the season in decent form and weren't considered as relelgation candidates when I started this thread. However a nosedive in form since then has seen Calderwood shown the door and U's fans begin to worry that they could drop all the way into non-league. Still though, they have a comfortable gap to danger and picked up a big win in their first game after Calderwood. Cambridge should be fine.
17th - Grimsby - 34 points
DLLWD
Ian Holloway
Earlier on in the season Grimsby looked like a real enigma, brilliant at times and when taking into account their games in hand, a shot at the playoffs seemed as likely as relegation. They still have two of those those games in hand and technically could be only four points from the playoffs if they win them. Inconsistency though means mid-table beckons for them. Holloway has done a decent job since coming in and relegation doesn't look to be a serious concern.
18th - Orient - 34 points
LDWLW
Ross Embleton (interim)
The first of the teams I thought may need to actually worry about relegation, finding a way to move on from the loss of Edinburgh has been difficult for the O's. If there were no compassion in football, they would probably have released Edinburgh's back-room staff and half the squad but they didn't want to do that, understandably; and finding a manager who would be willing to come into such a situation didn't work out in the end. They'll look to see this season out and see what they can do about things next year. Six points from the last nine have given them some good breathing space, and with teams below them struggling they'll probably have what it takes to maintain a gap down to relegation.
19th - Scunthorpe - 33 points
LDDLL
Russ Wilcox (caretaker)
At one point, Scunny looked like this season's Chesterfield, but for a little while it looked as though they had put their terrible start to the season well behind them. A difficult winter has seen them plummet back down the league, resulting in Hurst walking (or being sacked, it's not clear) and they go into February only slightly improved after their poor start. Still though, improvement is improvement and if they can get the next appointment right then I can't see them falling to the level of those teams who really are in the mire.
20th - Carlisle - 33 points
LDWWD
Chris Beech
Many of thier own fans' favourites to go down, a poor summer and poor start to the season saw Pressley sacked in November and a lack of new manager bounce under rookie Chris Beech convinced many the board had made yet another poor appointment and relegation was inevitable. Slowly but surely, Beech has turned things around for the Cumbrians, shoring up the division's worst defence and a busy transfer window and 8 points from the last 12 leaves them feeling that 11 point gap down to Stevenage can be adequately protected. Carlisle are unlikely to get relegated but it might just happen if the delicate balance Beech has created is upset.
21st - Mansfield - 31 points
LLWLD
Graham Coughlan
Mansfield's lowly position continues to surprise and confuse. An expensively assembled squad was expected to be in the automatic promotion race but under Dempster, a disappointing start to the season gradually evolved into a poor one and eventually a disastrous one. The anticipated revival of form and climb up the league never materialised and no sooner had fans accepted that they were too far behind to challenge for promotion did relegation begin to look distinctly possible, so Dempster was eventually shown the door and replaced with Coughlan. Things haven't picked up much since and there seems to be an acknowledgement that Coughlan has inherited a poor squad, albeit with a few shining gems scattered about. Most would still expect that Mansfield can't concievably do worse than the teams still below them, and that Coughlan is the right man to turn things around but you wouldn't write it off. Mansfield might go down, it would be a shocker, but not implausible.
22nd - Macclesfield - 28 points
LDWLL
Mark Kennedy
But for a six point deduction, Macclesfield would be in 18th place. That's not great, and at the time the deduction happened they looked like they were defying the turmoil around the club to head for a comfortable mid-table finish. That turmoil though has now made its way onto the pitch, with two managers walking, three players having their contracts cancelled by the EFL, player strikes and ongoing uncertainty over whether they could endure a further deduction, have the six points restored or face even tougher sanctions. With these threats combined with slipping form and only a six point gap to the relegation place their goose might finally be cooked. That said though, they've still managed to widen the gap in the past three games, there is a chance they could change ownership and begin mending the wounds and they are probably a better team than either of those below them.
23rd - Morecambe - 26 points
WLDWL
Derek Adams
Bentley may have finally departed, and on paper they might have just about the worst squad in the division, but Morecambe are still doing what Morecambe do and picking up unlikely seeming points each time you think the slide back into non-league has come. For a team down where they are they've had a very decent January which just shows you can never write Morecambe off. Whether they can keep doing this until they're safe is another thing; you could easily also see them going on a long losing run that sees them finally lose their league place.
24th - Stevenage - 22 points
DWLLL
Graham Westley
Somewhat appropriately, Stevenage have turned to Graham Westley in the hopes that the man who go them two promotions to the league and then the dizzy heights of League One, can keep them from making the return journey (notwithstanding him also overseeing their relegation to League Two). Westley certainly backs himself, as he thinks he can get them into the Championship. His team however, have been unable to hit any kind of form, and once the Scunthorpes, Oldhams and Walsalls of the division began to pick up points, they found that there was no longer anyone worse than them to help prop them up. With all that said, there have been a few suggestions from opposing fans that they aren't the worst team down there by a long way, and that perhaps Westley can work a minor miracle and keep them up. Thrashing Cambridge 4-0 in mid-January certainly caused some concern among the other relegation threatened sides.
TLDR;
Safe: Oldham, Walsall
Almost safe: Cambridge, Grimsby
Should have enough about them: Orient, Scunthorpe
Not out of the woods yet: Carlisle, Mansfield
Relegation candidates: Macclesfield, Morecambe, Stevenage
14th - Oldham - 36 points
DDDWW
Dino Maamria
widely fancied for the drop due to some shocking performances early season and a general sense of a club in crisis, they were already steadying the ship before Christmas following a change of manager, and have enjoyed a good January to climb up to 14th place, and 14 points clear of Stevenage. Not a chance Oldham are going down.
15th - Walsall - 36 points
LWLLL
Darrel Clarke
Still quite goal-shy, and with the division's 4th worst goal difference, the Saddlers reached a high point in December where they were in the top half of the table and 'only' 8 points off the playoffs. Since that point things have taken a turn for the worse but they're still comfortably clear of relegation; the only team in the bottom half who haven't changed manager. Walsall won't go down.
16th - Cambridge - 35 points
LLDLW
Mark Bonner (caretaker)
Considered to have had a decent transfer window, Cambridge started the season in decent form and weren't considered as relelgation candidates when I started this thread. However a nosedive in form since then has seen Calderwood shown the door and U's fans begin to worry that they could drop all the way into non-league. Still though, they have a comfortable gap to danger and picked up a big win in their first game after Calderwood. Cambridge should be fine.
17th - Grimsby - 34 points
DLLWD
Ian Holloway
Earlier on in the season Grimsby looked like a real enigma, brilliant at times and when taking into account their games in hand, a shot at the playoffs seemed as likely as relegation. They still have two of those those games in hand and technically could be only four points from the playoffs if they win them. Inconsistency though means mid-table beckons for them. Holloway has done a decent job since coming in and relegation doesn't look to be a serious concern.
18th - Orient - 34 points
LDWLW
Ross Embleton (interim)
The first of the teams I thought may need to actually worry about relegation, finding a way to move on from the loss of Edinburgh has been difficult for the O's. If there were no compassion in football, they would probably have released Edinburgh's back-room staff and half the squad but they didn't want to do that, understandably; and finding a manager who would be willing to come into such a situation didn't work out in the end. They'll look to see this season out and see what they can do about things next year. Six points from the last nine have given them some good breathing space, and with teams below them struggling they'll probably have what it takes to maintain a gap down to relegation.
19th - Scunthorpe - 33 points
LDDLL
Russ Wilcox (caretaker)
At one point, Scunny looked like this season's Chesterfield, but for a little while it looked as though they had put their terrible start to the season well behind them. A difficult winter has seen them plummet back down the league, resulting in Hurst walking (or being sacked, it's not clear) and they go into February only slightly improved after their poor start. Still though, improvement is improvement and if they can get the next appointment right then I can't see them falling to the level of those teams who really are in the mire.
20th - Carlisle - 33 points
LDWWD
Chris Beech
Many of thier own fans' favourites to go down, a poor summer and poor start to the season saw Pressley sacked in November and a lack of new manager bounce under rookie Chris Beech convinced many the board had made yet another poor appointment and relegation was inevitable. Slowly but surely, Beech has turned things around for the Cumbrians, shoring up the division's worst defence and a busy transfer window and 8 points from the last 12 leaves them feeling that 11 point gap down to Stevenage can be adequately protected. Carlisle are unlikely to get relegated but it might just happen if the delicate balance Beech has created is upset.
21st - Mansfield - 31 points
LLWLD
Graham Coughlan
Mansfield's lowly position continues to surprise and confuse. An expensively assembled squad was expected to be in the automatic promotion race but under Dempster, a disappointing start to the season gradually evolved into a poor one and eventually a disastrous one. The anticipated revival of form and climb up the league never materialised and no sooner had fans accepted that they were too far behind to challenge for promotion did relegation begin to look distinctly possible, so Dempster was eventually shown the door and replaced with Coughlan. Things haven't picked up much since and there seems to be an acknowledgement that Coughlan has inherited a poor squad, albeit with a few shining gems scattered about. Most would still expect that Mansfield can't concievably do worse than the teams still below them, and that Coughlan is the right man to turn things around but you wouldn't write it off. Mansfield might go down, it would be a shocker, but not implausible.
22nd - Macclesfield - 28 points
LDWLL
Mark Kennedy
But for a six point deduction, Macclesfield would be in 18th place. That's not great, and at the time the deduction happened they looked like they were defying the turmoil around the club to head for a comfortable mid-table finish. That turmoil though has now made its way onto the pitch, with two managers walking, three players having their contracts cancelled by the EFL, player strikes and ongoing uncertainty over whether they could endure a further deduction, have the six points restored or face even tougher sanctions. With these threats combined with slipping form and only a six point gap to the relegation place their goose might finally be cooked. That said though, they've still managed to widen the gap in the past three games, there is a chance they could change ownership and begin mending the wounds and they are probably a better team than either of those below them.
23rd - Morecambe - 26 points
WLDWL
Derek Adams
Bentley may have finally departed, and on paper they might have just about the worst squad in the division, but Morecambe are still doing what Morecambe do and picking up unlikely seeming points each time you think the slide back into non-league has come. For a team down where they are they've had a very decent January which just shows you can never write Morecambe off. Whether they can keep doing this until they're safe is another thing; you could easily also see them going on a long losing run that sees them finally lose their league place.
24th - Stevenage - 22 points
DWLLL
Graham Westley
Somewhat appropriately, Stevenage have turned to Graham Westley in the hopes that the man who go them two promotions to the league and then the dizzy heights of League One, can keep them from making the return journey (notwithstanding him also overseeing their relegation to League Two). Westley certainly backs himself, as he thinks he can get them into the Championship. His team however, have been unable to hit any kind of form, and once the Scunthorpes, Oldhams and Walsalls of the division began to pick up points, they found that there was no longer anyone worse than them to help prop them up. With all that said, there have been a few suggestions from opposing fans that they aren't the worst team down there by a long way, and that perhaps Westley can work a minor miracle and keep them up. Thrashing Cambridge 4-0 in mid-January certainly caused some concern among the other relegation threatened sides.
TLDR;
Safe: Oldham, Walsall
Almost safe: Cambridge, Grimsby
Should have enough about them: Orient, Scunthorpe
Not out of the woods yet: Carlisle, Mansfield
Relegation candidates: Macclesfield, Morecambe, Stevenage
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