Going Against the Betting Trends: Finding Freescoring Teams in a Low-Scoring League

When it comes to betting on the under/over markets in football, there are several leagues and competitions which have become synonymous with mayhem and they tend to frequently deliver when it comes to entertainment. Unfortunately for punters, online bookmakers have now priced these markets accordingly, and unearthing value in Major League Soccer, the English Premier League or the Dutch Eerste Divisie has become increasingly difficult and frustrating for football bettors.

Inversely, there are various divisions around the world which are strongly associated with low-scoring encounters with their fixtures very rarely descending into chaos. With 77.15% of games featuring fewer than three goals this season, the Iranian Pro League is one of the least entertaining divisions to follow and this is closely followed by the Egyptian Premier League and the Argentinian Primera.

Occasionally, one or two teams among these may buck the trend and suddenly become embroiled in several high-scoring matches. This is an ideal situation for bettors as it often takes the oddsmakers several weeks to catch up and adjust their markets accordingly. We’ve picked out a handful of teams that have proven to be anomalies in 2024 and have found themselves involved in several topsy-turvy affairs so far this season.

Almeria / Albacete – Spanish Segunda

The Spanish second tier has long been associated with defensive discipline and cagey encounters with the bookmakers tending to price it up accordingly. Nevertheless, two sides are challenging this narrative in 2024 with both Almeria and Albacete opting for a far more gung-ho and carefree approach to their games so far.

Almeria, who were relegated from the top flight at the end of the 2023-24 campaign have seen BTTS land in 77% of their first 13 matches with an average of 3.54 goals per game. They are currently the joint-second highest scorers in the Segunda alongside Racing Santander, however, it’s their inability to keep clean sheets which makes them a shoo-in for goals-based bets this year. They also possess the league’s top scorer in Colombia’s Luis Suarez, who is closing in on double figures.

Albacete aren’t too far behind. Queso Mecanico are averaging 3.29 goals per game with an average xG of 1.57. Like their divisional rivals, it’s their lack of defensive nous that is holding them back, yet it makes them one of the go-to teams when it comes to betting on the over 2.5 goals market.

These two teams, with some assistance from Granada, are helping to raise the average goal total to exactly 2.5 in La Liga 2 this season, however, the 2023-24 campaign produced an average of just 2.23 goals per game with the previous season proving particularly dull at just 2.02.

Cesena – Serie B

Italian football has been tarred with a low-scoring brush since the 1990s, yet Serie A has transformed into one of the most watchable and unpredictable competitions in Europe.

Serie B is struggling to shake off its association with low-scoring games with the likes of Palermo, Cittadella and Catanzaro doing very little to dispel this notion.

At the other end of the spectrum, Cesena has morphed into one of the most disorderly sides in the Italian second tier. The recently promoted Phoenix Club have been a breath of fresh air this season with their fixtures averaging 3.08 goals per game. They are particularly effective at home with their matches at Orogel Stadium-Dino Manuzzi producing an average of 3.71 goals so far. They’ve won 71% of their home matches, keeping a clean sheet in 43% of those games and have undoubtedly been one of this season’s surprise packages.

Crotone – Serie C Group C

We’re remaining in Italy for our final high-scoring team, but we are dropping down to the third tier. This is another division which is strongly linked to low-scoring outcomes and the bookmakers tend to reflect this in their odds.

Although this level of Italian football gets very little exposure, most new betting sites will offer punters the chance to wager on multiple markets across all three sections of Serie C and they tend to be particularly popular during the International Break when several higher-profile competitions tend to take a couple of weeks off.

Crotone may be a familiar name to fans of Serie B, and the Rossoblu are hoping to return to the second tier as soon as possible. Although they have put in a series of impressive displays throughout October and November, their defensive numbers don’t make particularly pleasant reading.

They’ve managed to keep clean sheets in just 14% of their matches so far and have been breached 26 times across their opening 14 fixtures. Nevertheless, they are fairly potent at the other end of the pitch and are averaging a hugely impressive 1.83 goals per game on their travels. There have been 39 goals in their last ten matches between mid-September to mid-November, and goal-hungry punters can still take advantage of relatively generous odds on their games to feature three or more goals.

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