The Race for Champions League Qualification

The past weekend looks like being a pivotal one in terms of the Premier League title race with Darwin Nunez’s late strikes at Brentford securing a last-gasp win for Arne Slots Liverpool.

Then, later on in the evening Arsenal squandered a 2-0 lead against Aston Villa at home to slump to a disappointing 2-2 draw.

With that the league leaders moved 6 points ahead of Arsenal, which could stretch to 9 by the time they play their rearranged fixture against Everton.

Whilst there are examples in Premier League history of teams surrendering 9 point or more leads at the top of the table they are few and far between – many also have the caveat of the chasing team having multiple games in hand.

The chances of Arsenal adding their name to the list of teams to overcome such a deficit are slim, something which is reflected in the current Premier League odds which have the Gunners way out at 5/1 for the title with Liverpool at 2/9 on.

It seems once again then, that the top flight title race in England will be something of a damp squib. That doesn’t mean there is nothing to left to play for though as there are plenty of other prizes up for grabs, mainly in the shape of Champions League qualification.

In this era of Manchester City and Liverpool dominance, the race for the Top Four has provided the majority of Premier League thrills and spills and this season is no different. Below we analyse the main runners and riders behind Liverpool who are looking to get their hands on a coveted Top Four spot this season.

Arsenal

The best indicator of future events often comes from the recent past and in Arsenal’s case, that tells us that Mikel Arteta’s men aren’t cut out for winning the Premier League, or overturning potential 9 points gaps.

The goal scoring issues that hamstrung their two previous title bids remain unresolved as does their lack of clinical ruthlessness when the going gets tough. That’s not to say though that they won’t give the title their very best go.

Falling short we expect them to fight to the end and therefore finish with automatic qualification to next season’s Champions League.

(A lack of firepower has killed Arsenal’s title hopes in recent seasons and it looks like it is going to again.)

Nottingham Forest

Two-and-a-half years ago Huddersfield Town were cheated out of promotion to the Premier League by two egregious VAR errors in the playoff final against Nottingham Forest.

Eighteen months later Nottingham Forest were bringing the Premier League into disrepute by issuing strongly worded statements insinuating that they were victims of a VAR conspiracy to have them relegated back to the Championship.

Now they are right in the heart of the Premier League title race. Funny old game football isn’t it? At the time of writing Forest are 6 points clear of fifth-placed Manchester City and look to be in the driving seat for Champions League qualification. On recent form, few would bet against them.

(From VAR lovers to VAR haters, life comes at you fast, certainly if you’re a Nottingham Forest fan.)

Chelsea

The Blues’ recent history makes for almost as dramatic reading as Nottingham Forest’s. Champions League winners in 2021, outsiders for relegation in 2023 and 2024 and then unexpected title challengers just a few short months ago.

Unfortunately for Chelsea fans, Enzo Maresca’s men have fallen off a cliff form-wise and now find themselves 10 points off Liverpool and just 2 ahead of Manchester City. Can they hold on and make a return to Europe’s top table? They’ll have to buck their ideas up.

Manchester City

Ipswich Town 0-6 Manchester City. That was an ominous result, particularly for the rest of the teams in the top half of the table. Whilst many laughed at City’s poor run of results before Christmas there are few laughing now.

Guardiola’s side appear to be back in top gear and, as recent history tells us, are more than capable of embarking a mind-bogglingly long winning streaks. At this stage we’re not comfortable ruling them out of Premier League contention yet let alone the Top Four.

(It very much looks like Manchester City and Pep Guardiola are back.)

Newcastle, Bournemouth, Aston Villa, Brighton and Fulham

At the time of writing all of these teams are separated by just 5 points which means none of them can be ruled out of the running for the Champions League. Realistically though we would expect the biggest pushes to come from Newcastle or Villa.

If either of these teams are to make it into the Top Four they will need to sustain a prolonged period of consistently good form whilst hoping that those above them do the opposite. To us both of those things occurring at the same time seem highly unlikely which means our tips for this season’s Top Four are…

Liverpool (Champions)

Manchester City (Runners Up)

Arsenal

Nottingham Forest

Let us know what you think of our controversial Top Four prediction in the comments section below…

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