Recent content by smat

Absolutely incredible swing towards the Lib Dems in Chesham & Amersham then. Not to read too much into a by-election but it could be that the Tories' pursuit of the 'red wall' has a high price in their traditional heartlands. Meanwhile Labour got their lowest share in a by-election, ever. Ever...

A bit of Brexit (ie toxic People's Vote policy), a bit of Corbyn's opponents having another 30 months to demolish his reputation, 30 more months of savage infighting, but mostly - I think - Johnson and the Tories learning the lessons of 2017 and adopting quite a lot of Labour's rhetoric (as far...

It is true, but I would observe that between 2019 and 2021 the Tories only gained 3,500 votes while Labour lost 7,000 (as well as dropping 10 percentage points) so it can't just be attributed to the Brexit Party. Whichever way you cut it, Starmer's result is substantially crapper than even...

Why is it sour grapes? I said this was going to happen. And it's a serious point - they are chasing votes they are never going to win (why would you vote for the lite version when the full fat is right there?), and they're bleeding out to the Greens at the other end. The Green Party more than...

And I mean, this is a perfect case in point. You're exactly the sort of prick Starmer has been chasing for the entire year and you still aren't even thinking about voting for him. The Labour right are so thick.

Well fancy fucking that. Absolute fucking idiots who voted for Starmer. Credulous, Guardian fucking idiots.

What actually is centrism? What kinds of policies would a centrist Labour party put forward? I suspect when most people say they want Labour to be more centrist, what they actually mean is "not in the news as much". Sensible. Moderate. Empty signifiers with no content. Centrism doesn't have the...

I know I look and sound like David Mitchell but this is not fair on me. Quite recently on this forum I was still arguing that the referendum should be respected by Labour. We would have been squeezed by the Lib Dems had we not changed tack, but the cost/benefit calculation was completely wrong.

Thank you Drew. That's a really nice message and not at all condescending. It is a pretty horrible moment and I do appreciate it. It's too soon for me to say really as I'm still processing it. The scale of the defeat is beyond even my worst fears. Our policies, by and large, are quite popular...

now to take a big sip of coffee and check the

Thanks, it won't be necessary because it is indeed true. A 10% drop from just two years ago would be completely absurd, however. Not going to happen.

I don't think so, many elderly people vote by postal ballot anyway.

Not to get my hopes up too much but the turnout assumptions are very strange. They're expecting older turnout to be up by 10% and younger turnout to drop by about the same. That is 100% not going to happen. 700 people were canvassing in Putney the other night, most of them young - yes, alright...

Yes. Probably shouldn't have looked at that right before bed. welp

One thing I did find striking in the debate was that there was a question like "what's better, socialism or capitalism?" and both leaders had to make the case for their ideology. That would have been absolutely unimaginable just a few short years ago. Things have changed incredibly quickly.