How Easy Is It For CONCACAF North America Teams To Qualify For The World Cup?

[Abram Jones]

CONCACAF has 3.5 spots for the 2018 World Cup. Here are the major North American countries with their economic determinant (a number that estimates countries potential based on gdp per capita and population amount). See this video for more commentary:

United States: 149 million (soccer is unpopular sport here, reduce to about 10 to 15% of value)
Canada: 16 million (soccer is unpopular sport here, reduce to about 10 to 15% of value)
Mexico: 10 million

Puerto Rico: 1.1 million (soccer is unpopular sport here, reduce to about 10 to 15% of value)
Cuba: 641,000 (soccer is unpopular sport here, number should be significantly reduced)
Dominicana: 545,000 (soccer is unpopular sport here, number should be significantly reduced)

Guatemala: 402,000
Costa Rica: 373,000
Panama: 294,000 (not traditionally a soccer country, but starting to lean toward soccer. number still should be reduced)
Salvador: 221,000
Trinidad Tobago: 210,000 (not traditionally a soccer country, but starting to lean toward soccer. number still should be reduced)
Honduras: 161,000
Jamaica: 132,000 (not traditionally a soccer country, but starting to lean toward soccer. number still should be reduced)

Conclusion: United States and Mexico are almost guaranteed to go to the World Cup unless they severely under perform. Other listed countries have moderate difficulty to achieve world cup birth. North American countries not listed here have almost no chance of getting to the World Cup. No matter how efficient or good they are at the sport the economics are too far against their favor. In fact, the only country I think that ever qualified in this group is Haiti.

 

[epic73]

United States and Mexico are almost guaranteed to go to the World Cup unless they severely under perform.

 

[Abram Jones]

Precisely, whereas other countries in the region can over perform and still have a bleak chance to make it. In the case of the very small countries they could over perform beyond belief and have an even smaller chance.

 

[Libertadores FC]

Spot on.

I'd tip money on Venezuela qualifying if they were in CONCACAF. Regularly too.

 

[Super_horns]

USA seem to do their best to mess it all up though!

 

[AnkleBiter]

Far from guaranteed, only a last minute USA goal against Panama got Mexico into the play offs for the last world cup. USA have been shite this time round and have a against big pressure game against Panama coming up.

 

[Abram Jones]

Far from guaranteed, only a last minute USA goal against Panama got Mexico into the play offs for the last world cup. USA have been shite this time round and have a against big pressure game against Panama coming up.

It is guaranteed if they play par of what they should based on wealth and population amount, or even significantly below par. It is only not guaranteed because the United States is quite inefficient at soccer. i have wealth and population adjusted rankings in beta right now, and USA is ranked #129 in soccer.