Prediction of final points tally

[northstandexile]

As most folk on here have said that anyone in top half can get into play offs. (Sorry Luton and Exeter). Also folk have tried to say that the crucial fact will be who the sides have got to play and how difficult their run in is.

I have tried to do an analysis and come up with a formulae to try and predict final points total.

So for a bit of fun I have calculated points assuming teams beat bottom half teams and draw with top half teams.

Northampton 70 + 9 wins, 6 draws = 103
Plymouth 60+ 9w, 6d = 93
Accrington 52 + 10w, 7d = 89
-----------------------------------------
Oxford 55 + 9w, 6d = 88
Bristol Rovers 50+ 9w,6d = 83
Portsmouth 49+ 8w,8d = 81
Leyton Orient 49 + 8w,6d = 79
---------------------------------------------
Carlisle 46+ 8w, 9d = 79
AFC Wimbledon 48+ 7w,9d = 78
Wycombe 49+ 6w,9d = 76
Mansfield 51+ 6w, 7d = 76
Cambridge 47+ 5w,9d = 71

I know these figures look inflated and teams will have to play well to achieve these figures but it will be interesting to keep this table up to the end and see if the positions alter much.

 

[Deepcut Cobbler]

It would be nice but I can't see us remaining unbeaten for the rest of the season...

 

[shoddycollins]

Happy with that for what it says about our chances. Of those eleven other teams, we only need to travel to Cambridge and Pompey, the rest have to come to us, apart from Accrington and Plymouth who we've played twice already.

 

[shoddycollins]

It would be nice but I can't see us remaining unbeaten for the rest of the season...

Apparently the whole top half will remain unbeaten. I know it's not supposed to be an actual prediction though, just an illustration of potential.

 

[NolansOrient]

This is a bit of fun I know, but the figures are drastically inflated. Teams up at the top will lose to bottom half sides before the season is out, and lots of the top 8 have yet to play each other.

I think 74 will see 7th this season, a couple of points higher than the historical average.

 

[Wombling Kiwi]

78 points for Wombles, I'd take that

 

[shoddycollins]

This is a bit of fun I know, but the figures are drastically inflated. Teams up at the top will lose to bottom half sides before the season is out, and lots of the top 8 have yet to play each other.

I think 74 will see 7th this season, a couple of points higher than the historical average.

Well we've already played Newport twice now, and lost 1-0 twice... the main task ahead of us now is to negotiate fortress Dagenham.

 

[northstandexile]

Updated 'fun' table after tonight's games

Northampton 103
Plymouth 91
Accrington 89
----------------------------
Oxford 88
Bristol Rovers 83
AFC Wimbledon 80
Leyton Orient 79
-------------------------------
Portsmouth 78
Carlisle 78
Wycombe 76
Mansfield 76
Cambridge 71

Big Winners tonight are AFC Wimbledon, biggest losers are Portsmouth

Oxford and Accrington putting pressure on Plymouth for the auto spot.

 

[northstandexile]

Updated after today's games

Northampton 101
Plymouth 91
Oxford 90
-----------------------------
Accrington 87
Bristol Rovers 82
Portsmouth 80
AFC Wimbledon 79
--------------------------------
Leyton Orient 79
Carlisle 78
Wycombe 78
Mansfield 73
Cambridge 70

 

[northstandexile]

Another update, Portsmouth biggest loser again, is wheels falling off. Accrington falling off pace for autos

Northampton 101
Oxford 90
Plymouth 88
----------------------------
Accrington 84
Bristol rovers 82
AFC Wimbledon 79
Leyton Orient 79
--------------------------------
Portsmouth 78
Carlisle 78
Wycombe 77
Mansfield 73
Cambridge 72

 

[northstandexile]

another update not much change in positions except Orient losing out to Portsmouth and Wycombe, Mansfield and Cambridge settling for mid table.

Northampton 103
Oxford 90
Plymouth 88
----------------------------
Accrington 84
Bristol Rovers 82
AFC Wimbledon 79
Portsmouth 78
--------------------------------
Carlisle 77
Leyton Orient 76
Wycombe 74
Mansfield 70
Cambridge 69

 

[northstandexile]

Update - no change in which teams are in playoff, but Carlisle slipping

Northampton 103
Oxford 90
Plymouth 88
-------------------------
Bristol Rovers 84
Accrington 83
Portsmouth 80
AFC Wimbledon 78
-------------------------------
Leyton Orient 76
Carlisle 75
Wycombe 74
Mansfield 70
Cambridge 69

 

[hellogregory]

We'll finish on 59 points.

 

[northstandexile]

updated after weekend games

Northampton 103
Oxford 89
Plymouth 87
--------------------------------
Bristol Rovers 86
Accrington 85
Leyton Orient 78
Portsmouth 77
-------------------------------------
AFC Wimbledon 75
Wycombe 74
Carlisle 73
Mansfield 69
Cambridge 69

Biggest winners at the weekend were Leyton Orient who jumped two places

 

[northstandexile]

updated after weekend games

Northampton 103
Oxford 89
Bristol Rovers 86
-----------------------------------
Accrington 85
Plymouth 84
Leyton Orient 78
Portsmouth 77
-------------------------------------
AFC Wimbledon 75
Wycombe 74
Carlisle 73
Mansfield 69
Cambridge 69

Biggest losers at the weekend were Plymouth who dropped two places

 

[northstandexile]

So after a month of doing this, the same top seven teams are still in the top seven.

Interestingly the seventh place team are only 2pts down on the original ( some said very generous) points tally.

I have a feeling that the seven placed team will finish with more than the 72/73pts that most people have predicted and way more than previous seasons where 70 pts have generally been enough for a play off place.

 

[northstandexile]

update

Northampton 103
Bristol Rovers 88
Oxford 87
--------------------------------
Accrington 87
Plymouth 84
Leyton Orient 77
Portsmouth 77
---------------------------------
Wycombe 76
AFC Wimbledon 72
Carlisle 71
Mansfield 68
Cambridge 68

Bristol Rovers storming into autos and sill predicting a very high 77 pts for 7th place. The bottom four now cut adrift so looking at only eight in it for the seven places.

 

[Gas1982]

If! we beat Carlisle away tomorrow, we only have Northampton to play from the top half before playing the bottom 3 in our last 4 games by which time our last two games could be against already relegated teams.

Remaining games
Carlisle away
Crawley home
Northampton away
Yeovil home
Stevenage away
Exeter home
York away
Dagenham home

No games are easy at the business end of the season but you would take this run-in over most of the other teams run-ins. What ever happens from now to the end of the season Darrell Clarke has done a fantastic job since start of last season.

UTG!!!

 

[northstandexile]

A bit late but update from last Monday

Northampton 103
Bristol Rovers 87
Oxford 87
------------------------
Accrington 87
Plymouth 84
Portsmouth 77
Leyton Orient 74
-----------------------------
Wycombe 74
Carlisle 73
AFC Wimbledon 72
Mansfield 68
Cambridge 68

Looks like that it will be a really tight scramble for last play off spot, Carlisle did themselves a good turn by over coming The Gas.

 

[northstandexile]

update after Saturday's games

Northampton 101
Bristol Rovers 87
Oxford 87
---------------------------------
Accrington 87
Plymouth 81
Portsmouth 79
AFC Wimbledon 74
-------------------------------------
Wycombe 73
Leyton Orient 72
Carlisle 72
Cambridge 68

Plymouth slipping out of any chance of auto promotion and nobody seems to want seventh place

 

[BeesKnees]

All this thread is doing is showing that using a basic formula does not allow you to predict the future.

 

[LongEatonPie]

All this thread is doing is showing that using a basic formula does not allow you to predict the future.

Eventually the formula will be spot on though

 

[northstandexile]

update after Saturday's games

Northampton 101
Bristol Rovers 87
Oxford 87
---------------------------------
Accrington 87
Plymouth 80
Portsmouth 79
AFC Wimbledon 76
-------------------------------------
Wycombe 71
Carlisle 71
Exeter 71
Leyton Orient 69
Cambridge 68
Mansfield 67

Looking like the last play off play is the Don's to lose with their easy run in. Also one of the Gas, Oxford and Accy will be condemned to the play offs

 

[northstandexile]

Northampton 99
Bristol Rovers 87
Accrington 85
-------------------------
Oxford 84
Plymouth 82
Portsmouth 78
AFC Wimbledon 76
-----------------------------
Exeter 71
Carlisle 71
Wycombe 69
Leyton Orient 69

So it is still the Wombles to lose the 7th spot, but Oxford look like blowing autos

 

[northstandexile]

Updated after Tuesday's games
Northampton 99
Bristol Rovers 85
Accrington 85
------------------------
Plymouth. 84
Oxford. 82
AFC Wimbledon 76
Portsmouth 75
----------------------------
Exeter 70
Mansfield 69
Carlisle 68
Leyton Orient 68
Cambridge 68
Wycombe. 67

So Oxford slipping but assured of play offs, and Portsmouth look like they might throw it away

 

[Look Out There Are Llamas]

Llama now supports AFC Wimbledon and Accrington Stanley for the rest of the season.

 

[Deepcut Cobbler]

Possible 99 or 101 (although less will be likely) for us now with three to play, the recent glut of draws have let us down on achieving the three figures with what at one time was going/appeared to be with apparent ease...

 

[ProfessorGreen]

I think 84 points will get third place this year. Stanley certainly look good for that, they'll probably come second.

 

[SVH]

Updated after Tuesday's games
Northampton 99
Bristol Rovers 85
Accrington 85
------------------------
Plymouth. 84
Oxford. 82
AFC Wimbledon 76
Portsmouth 75
----------------------------
Exeter 70
Mansfield 69
Carlisle 68
Leyton Orient 68
Cambridge 68
Wycombe. 67

So Oxford slipping but assured of play offs, and Portsmouth look like they might throw it away

If Carlisle, Orient and Mansfield all finish above us i'll attend the first game next season in my underpants.

 

[Habbinalan]

If Carlisle, Orient and Mansfield all finish above us i'll attend the first game next season in my underpants.

I also plan to wear my underpants to the first game next season (or wherever I'm listening to it from) - and most of the others as well.

Now that it doesn't matter, I'm even more confident of my pre-season "guess" of 8th and 69 points. Of those 3, I can only see Mansfield getting above 67 - probably against us on the last day.