Probabilities...

[Trapdoor]

An Exeter fan called Grecian-on-Tyne on exeweb has made a website for his probabilistic points prediction models. Might be of interest to some of you here.

probs4.club

www.probs4.club

http://www.probs4.club/p4cLge/lge2

 

[shoddycollins]

Reminds me of something Ben Mayhew (e361) used to do, though he hasn't produced a similar graphic for this season. Dunno if your friend is using similar xG/based probabilities but Mayhew did the same thing with running thousands of simulations to see which was the most common outcome.

We stand out like a sore thumb. At the end of January we are given the probability of automatic promotion as 80%, with Cambridge on 50.6% being the only other club given a greater likelihood than 50/50; and As recently as the 21st of Feb still given 80% probability of making the top 7. Now it gives us 0% of automatic promotion and 10% of top 7.

2021 can suck a bag of dicks.

The outcome by points is an interesting way of showing how many points might be needed for survival promotion etc

 

[Trapdoor]

After our last two shit results our chance of promotion is down to a measly 4.8%. Looking forward to try another year in this forsaken division.

 

[denzel ecfc]

After our last two shit results our chance of promotion is down to a measly 4.8%. Looking forward to try another year in this forsaken division.

You know its flawed when it shows us in green....

 

[chipmunx]

so we're up to 21st at present - but it's predicting we end up 15-16th. We'll take that.
It's also saying if we win all our remaining games we have an almost 50% chance of making the play offs..... i'll comment on that if we get to 15 wins on the trot, lol....

 

[valefan16]

1.7% chance of relegation is a bit more positive after recent weeks.

 

[Trapdoor]

Grimsby and Southend all but confirmed...