The Real League One Table 2019

[Kenneth E End]

OK this is my attempt at the League One promotion and relegation races. Looks like it's going to take a particularly high number of points to get into the Championship this year. I believe the divisional promotion winning average is 87 points this century. Does seem to be two leagues forming at the top (although this has actually been pretty evident for a while), with the top 5 breaking pretty clear from the rest.

AFC Wimbledon certainly making this thread much longer than it needs to be. Certainly a lot closer at the bottom of the division than it is at the top. At the moment there are 4 teams that are projected to get 49 points based on PPG and would be scraping to escape that final relegation place.

110 - Absolute maximum points for the Champions
109
108
107
106
105
104
103
102
101
100
99
98
97
96
95
94
93 - Projected Champions
--------------------------------------------
92
91 - Projected Promotion
--------------------------------------------
90
89
88
87
86
85
84
83
82
81
80
79
78
77
76
75
74
73
72 - Projected Play Offs
--------------------------------------------
71
70
69
68 - Luton Town (need 23 points from 14 games for promotion)
67
66
65
64
63
62 - Barnsley (need 29 points from 15 games for promotion)
61
60
59 - Portsmouth (need 32 points from 15 games for promotion); Projected Top Half
--------------------------------------------
58
57 - Sunderland (need 34 points from 17 games for promotion)
56
55 - Charlton Athletic
54
53
52
51
50 - Doncaster Rovers; Projected Safety
--------------------------------------------
49 - Peterborough United
48
47
46 - Blackpool
45 - Fleetwood Town
44
43 - Wycombe Wanderers, Coventry City
42
41 - Burton Albion
40 - Scunthorpe United
39 - Southend United
38
37 - Plymouth Argyle
36 - Accrington Stanley
35 - Walsall
34 - Rochdale
33 - Bristol Rovers, Oxford United, Gillingham
32 - Shrewsbury Town, Bradford City
30
29
28
27
26
25
24
23 - AFC Wimbledon

 

[Craig]

SAFE!

 

[Gassy]

Always enjoy these tables, although I get the feeling the safety zone will be something like 55 this season

 

[K-Win]

Oh goody - another way of charting our collapse

 

[DearneValleyRover]

Always enjoy these tables, although I get the feeling the safety zone will be something like 55 this season

Agreed, I also think it will take more than 72 points to secure a play-off place.

 

[Kenneth E End]

Agreed, I also think it will take more than 72 points to secure a play-off place.

For the top 5 undoubtedly. It’s that 6th place dragging the averages down.

 

[Gassy]

For the top 5 undoubtedly. It’s that 6th place dragging the averages down.

Those bastards.

 

[DearneValleyRover]

For the top 5 undoubtedly. It’s that 6th place dragging the averages down.

Oh the wit

 

[Kenneth E End]

Update 16 Feb 2019

110 - Absolute maximum points for the Champions
109
108
107
106
105
104
103
102
101
100
99
98
97
96
95
94 - Projected Champions
--------------------------------------------
93
92
91
90
89 - Projected Promotion
--------------------------------------------
88
87
86
85
84
83
82
81
80
79
78
77
76
75
74
73 - Projected Play Offs
--------------------------------------------
72
71 - Luton Town (need 18 points from 13 games for promotion)
70
69
68
67
66
65 - Barnsley (need 24 points from 14 games for promotion)
64
63
62
61
60 - Portsmouth (need 29 points from 14 games for promotion)
59 - Sunderland (need 30 points from 15 games for promotion)
--------------------------------------------
58 - Projected Top Half
57
56 - Charlton Athletic (need 33 points from 13 games for promotion)
55
54
53 - Doncaster Rovers
52 - Peterborough United
51
50 ;
49
48 - Blackpool; Projected Safety
--------------------------------------------
47
46 - Coventry City
45 - Fleetwood Town
44
43 - Wycombe Wanderers
42 - Burton Albion
41
40 - Southend United; Scunthorpe United
39
38 - Plymouth Argyle
37 - Accrington Stanley
36 - Gillingham
35 - Walsall
34 - Rochdale
33 - Bristol Rovers, Oxford United, Shrewsbury Town, Bradford City
32
30
29
28
27
26 - AFC Wimbledon

 

[Kenneth E End]

Update 24 Feb 2019

Really interesting day and week as a lot of the games in the hand at the top have evened themselves out - disastrous for the bottom four as they all lost, with those above them winning away from home. It does appear a bit more spread out down there than it was a week ago.

Sunderland push the promotion line up after a really good week for them. Right now, both Barnsley and Sunderland are projected to get 91 with Luton to get 99 (playing tomorrow). Portsmouth are now 8 games without a win. It looks increasingly like a three horse race for 2 positions but a team with a lot of points going home disappointed into the play off lottery.

Meanwhile with no one really wanting that 6th place, it could be one of the lower points totals that gets into that play offs this season; it is now projected that Luton will make the play offs even if they lose their last 13 games.

108 - Absolute maximum points for the Champions
107
106
105
104
103
102
101
100
99
98
97
96
95
94
93
92 - Projected Champions & Promotion
--------------------------------------------
91
90
89
88
87
86
85
84
83
82
81
80
79
78
77
76
75
74
73
72 - Luton Town (need 19 points from 12 games for promotion because of superior goal difference; and 20 points to be Champions)
71 - Projected Play Offs
--------------------------------------------
70
69
68
67 - Barnsley (need 25 points from 12 games for promotion)
66
65 - Sunderland (need 27 points from 13 games for promotion)
64
63
62 - Portsmouth (need 29 points from 12 games for promotion)
61
60
59 - Projected Top Half; Charlton Athletic (need 33 points from 12 games for promotion)
--------------------------------------------
58
57
56
55
54 - Doncaster Rovers
53
52 - Peterborough United
51
50 ;
49
48 - Blackpool, Fleetwood Town; Projected Safety
--------------------------------------------
47 - Coventry City
46
45
44
43 - Burton Albion, Wycombe Wanderers
42
41 - Accrington Stanley, Scunthorpe United, Southend United, Plymouth Argyle
40
39 - Gillingham
38 - Walsall (need 10 points from 12 games for survival)
37 -
36 - Shrewsbury Town, Oxford United (need 12 points from 12 games for survival but an additional game for Shrewsbury Town)
35
34 - Rochdale, Bristol Rovers (need 14 points from 12 games for survival but an additional game for Bristol Rovers)
33 - Bradford City (need 15 points from 12 games for survival)
32
30
29 - AFC Wimbledon (need 19 points from 12 games for survival)

 

[Kenneth E End]

Update 2 Mar 2019

All the lines are moving up, with the most stark increase the relegation line, with 50 points may not proving enough this year. A lot of teams are suddenly having their tails chased in the bottom half, but it looks pretty desperate for Bradford and AFC Wimbledon.

At the top, Portsmouth are just about hanging on to make it a 4 horse race for 2 spots, but they can really only drop a handful of points for the remainder of the season to get in there - looks pretty improbable on recent form, bar today. The top 3 just keep winning games. I'm sure one of those are going to do everything to deserve promotion but just miss out.

108 - Absolute maximum points for the Champions
107
106
105
104
103
102
101
100
99 - Expected Champions total
98
97
96
95
94
93 - Projected Champions & Promotion
--------------------------------------------
92
91
90
89
88
87
86
85
84
83
82
81
80
79
78
77
76
75 - Luton Town (need 17 points from 11 games for promotion because of superior goal difference; and 18 points to be Champions)
74
73 - Projected Play Offs
--------------------------------------------
72
71
70 - Barnsley (need 23 points from 11 games for promotion)
69
68 - Sunderland (need 25 points from 12 games for promotion)
67
66
65 - Portsmouth (need 28 points from 11 games for promotion)
64
63
62
61
60 - Charlton Athletic (will not get promoted automatically unless a mathematical improbability occurs)
59
58 - Projected Top Half
--------------------------------------------
57
56
55 - Doncaster Rovers, Peterborough United
54
53
52
51 - Projected Safety
--------------------------------------------
50 - Coventry City
49 - Fleetwood Town
48 - Blackpool
47
46
45
44 - Burton Albion
43 - Wycombe Wanderers
42
41 - Accrington Stanley, Scunthorpe United, Southend United, Plymouth Argyle
40 - Shrewsbury Town, Gillingham
39 - Walsall , Oxford United (both teams need 12 points from 11 games for survival)
38
37 - Bristol Rovers (need 14 points from 12 games for survival)
36
35
34 - Rochdale (need 17 points from 11 games for survival)
33 - Bradford City (need 18 points from 11 games for survival)
32
30 - AFC Wimbledon (need 21 points from 11 games for survival)

 

[Kenneth E End]

Update 10 Mar 2019

106 - Absolute maximum points for the Champions
105
104
103
102
101
100
99
98
97 - Expected Champions total
96
95
94 - Projected Champions
93
92 - Projected Promotion
--------------------------------------------
91
90
89
88
87
86
85
84
83
82 - Projected home advantage play offs
81
80
79
78
77
76 - Luton Town (need 16 points from 10 games for promotion and 18 points to be Champions)
75
74
73 - Barnsley (need 19 points from 10 games for promotion)
72
71 - Projected Play Offs
--------------------------------------------
70
69 - Sunderland (need 23 points from 11 games for promotion)
68
67
66
65 - Portsmouth (need 27 points from 10 games for promotion, virtually a statistical improbability)
64
63 - Charlton Athletic
62
61
60
59
58
57
56 - Projected Top Half
--------------------------------------------
55 - Doncaster Rovers, Peterborough United
54
53
52 - Blackpool
51 - Projected Safety
--------------------------------------------
50 - Coventry City
49 - Fleetwood Town
48
47 - Burton Albion
46
45
44 - Wycombe Wanderers
43 - Gillingham
42 - Southend United, Plymouth Argyle, Walsall (need 9 points from 10 games for survival)
41 - Accrington Stanley, Scunthorpe United (need 10 points from 10 games for survival however Accrington have an additional game)
40 - Shrewsbury Town, Bristol Rovers (need 11 points from 10 games for survival however Bristol Rovers have an additional game)
39 - Oxford United (both teams need 12 points from 10 games for survival)
38
37 - Rochdale (need 14 points from 10 games for survival)
36 - Bradford City (need 15 points from 10 games for survival)
35
34 -
33 - AFC Wimbledon (need 18 points from 10 games for survival)

 

[Craig]

Playoffs sealed

 

[Kenneth E End]

There are a lot of teams getting a bit nervous down that bottom end.

 

[Kenneth E End]

Update 13 Mar 2019

106 - Absolute maximum points for the Champions
105
104
103
102
101
100
99
98 - Expected Champions total
97
96
95
94
93 - Projected Champions
92
91
90 - Projected Promotion
--------------------------------------------
89
88
87
86
85
84
83 - Projected home advantage play offs
82
81
80
79 - Luton Town (need 11 points from 9 games for promotion and 14 points to be Champions)
78
77
76
75
74 - Barnsley (need 16 points from 9 games for promotion)
73
72
71
70 - Sunderland (need 20 points from 10 games for promotion)
69 - Projected Play Offs
--------------------------------------------
68 - Portsmouth (need 22 points from 9 games for promotion)
67
66 - Charlton Athletic (need 24 points from 9 games for promotion)
65
64
63
62
61
60
59
58
57 - Projected Top Half
--------------------------------------------
56 - Doncaster Rovers
55 - Peterborough United
54
53 - Blackpool, Coventry City
52
51 - Projected Safety
--------------------------------------------
50 -
49 - Fleetwood Town
48
47 - Burton Albion
46
45 - Plymouth Argyle
44 - Wycombe Wanderers, Accrington Stanley, Scunthorpe United
43 - Bristol Rovers, Gillingham
42 - Southend United, , Walsall (need 9 points from 9 games for survival)
41
40 - Shrewsbury Town, Oxford United (need 11 points from 9 games for survival)
39
38 - Rochdale (need 13 points from 9 games for survival)
37
36 - Bradford City, AFC Wimbledon (need 15 points from 9 games for survival)

 

[Kenneth E End]

Update 16 Mar 2019

104 - Absolute maximum points for the Champions
103
102
101
100
99
98
97 - Expected Champions total
96
95
94
93
92 - Projected Promotion & Champions
--------------------------------------------
91
90
89
88
87
86
85
84
83
82 - Projected home advantage play offs
81
80 - Luton Town (need 11 points from 8 games for promotion and be Champions because of superior goal difference)
79
78
77
76
75 - Barnsley (need 17 points from 8 games for promotion)
74
73 - Sunderland (need 19 points from 9 games for promotion)
72
71 - Portsmouth (need 21 points from 8 games for promotion)
70
69 - Projected Play Offs
--------------------------------------------
68
67 - Charlton Athletic (mathematical improbability to get promoted automatically)
66
65
64
63
62
61
60
59
58
57 - Doncaster Rovers
56 - Coventry City; Projected Top Half
--------------------------------------------
55 - Peterborough United
54
53 - Blackpool
52 - Fleetwood Town; Projected Safety
--------------------------------------------
51
50 - Burton Albion
49
48
47
46
45 - Plymouth Argyle (need 7 points from 8 games for survival)
44 - Wycombe Wanderers, Accrington Stanley, Scunthorpe United, Bristol Rovers, Gillingham (all need 8 points for survival; Accrington Stanley have 2 games in hand) Projected Bottom Club
43 - Shrewsbury Town, Oxford United (need 9 points from 8 games for survival)
42 - Southend United, Walsall (need 10 points from 8 games for survival)
41
40
39 - AFC Wimbledon (need 13 points from 8 games for survival)
38 - Rochdale (need 14 points from 8 games for survival)
37
36 - Bradford City (need 16 points from 8 games from survival)

 

[Bucket_]

We're right on the edge of still being in the autos race. And we tend to prefer being underdogs.

 

[Kenneth E End]

Update 23 Mar 2019

104 - Absolute maximum points for the Champions
103
102
101
100
99
98 - Expected Champions total
97
96
95
94
93 - Projected Champions
--------------------------------------------
92 - Projected Promotion
--------------------------------------------
91
90
89
88
87
86
85
84
83 - Luton Town (need 9 points from 7 games for promotion and be Champions because of superior goal difference)
82 - Projected home advantage play offs
81
80
79
78 - Barnsley (need 14 points from 7 games for promotion)
77
76
75
74 - Portsmouth (need 18 points from 7 games for promotion)
73 - Sunderland (need 19 points from 9 games for promotion)
72
71
70
69 - Projected Play Offs
--------------------------------------------
68
67 - Charlton Athletic (need 2 points from 8 games to get into the play offs)
66
65
64
63
62
61
60
59
58 - Peterborough United (need 11 points from 7 games to get into the play offs)
57 - Doncaster Rovers (need 12 points from 8 games to get into the play offs)
56 - Coventry City, Blackpool (need 13 points from 7 games to get into the play offs)
55 - Projected Top Half
--------------------------------------------
54
53 - Burton Albion
52 - Fleetwood Town
51 - Projected Safety
--------------------------------------------
50
49
48
47 - Gillingham
46 - Oxford United, Plymouth Argyle
45 - Bristol Rovers (need 6 points from 8 games for survival)
44 - Wycombe Wanderers, Accrington Stanley, Scunthorpe United (all need 7 points for survival; Wycombe have 1 game in hand, Accrington Stanley have 2 games in hand)
43 - Shrewsbury Town (need 8 points from 7 games for survival)
42 - Southend United, Walsall (need 9 points from 7 games for survival) Projected Bottom Club
41 - Rochdale (need 10 points from 8 games for survival)
40
39 - AFC Wimbledon (need 12 points from 7 games for survival)
38
37
36 - Bradford City (need 15 points from 7 games from survival)

 

[Kenneth E End]

Update 30 Mar 2019

104 - Absolute maximum points for the Champions
103
102
101
100
99 - Expected Champions total
98
97
96
95
94
93
92 - Projected Promotion & Champions
--------------------------------------------
91
90
89
88
87
86 - Luton Town (need 6 points from 6 games for promotion and be Champions)
85
84 - Projected home advantage play offs
83
82
81
80
79 - Barnsley (need 13 points from 6 games for promotion)
78
77
76
75
74 - Portsmouth (need 18 points from 7 games for promotion)
73 - Sunderland (need 19 points from 9 games for promotion)
72
71
70 - Charlton Athletic
69 - Projected Play Offs
--------------------------------------------
68
67
66
65
64
63 - Doncaster Rovers
62
61
60
59
58 - Peterborough United
57 - Blackpool, Coventry City
56
55 - Fleetwood Town Projected Top Half
--------------------------------------------
54
53 - Burton Albion
52
51
50
49 - Oxford United Projected Safety
--------------------------------------------
48 - Gillingham
47 - Plymouth Argyle
46 - Shrewsbury Town
45 - Bristol Rovers
44 - Wycombe Wanderers, Accrington Stanley, Scunthorpe United (need 5 points for survival)
43
42 - Southend United, Walsall, AFC Wimbledon, Rochdale (need 7 points for survival)
41 - Projected Bottom Club
40
39
38
37
36 - Bradford City (need 13 points from 6 games from survival)

 

[Gassy]

Out of interest how are you basing/predicting the projected safety number?

 

[Kenneth E End]

Out of interest how are you basing/predicting the projected safety number?

PPG ratio

 

[Kenneth E End]

Update 6 Apr 2019

102 - Absolute maximum points for the Champions
101
100
99
98 - Expected Champions total
97
96
95
94 - Projected Champions
93
92
91
90 - Projected Promotion
--------------------------------------------
89
88
87 - Luton Town (need 3 points from 5 games for promotion and 7 points to be Champions)
86
85 - Projected home advantage play offs
84
83
82
81
80
79 - Barnsley, Sunderland (need 11 points from 5 games for promotion, Sunderland have 2 games in hand)
78
77 - Portsmouth (need 13 points from 6 games for promotion)
76
75
74
73 - Charlton Athletic
72
71 - Projected Play Offs
--------------------------------------------
70
69
68
67
66 - Doncaster Rovers
65
64
63
62
61 - Peterborough United
60
59
58 - Blackpool
57 - Coventry City
56 - Burton Albion, Fleetwood Town
55 - Projected Top Half
--------------------------------------------
54
53
52 - Oxford United
51
50
49 - Projected Safety
--------------------------------------------
48 - Gillingham
47 - Shrewsbury Town, Plymouth Argyle
46
45 - Bristol Rovers, Accrington Stanley, Scunthorpe United
44 - Wycombe Wanderers, (need 5 points for survival)
43 - Southend United, AFC Wimbledon (need 6 points for survival)
42 - Walsall, Rochdale (need 7 points for survival)
41
40 - Projected Bottom Club
39
38
37
36 - Bradford City (need 13 points from 5 games from survival and are virtually dead)

 

[Kenneth E End]

Update 13 Apr 2019

99 - Absolute maximum points for the Champions
98
97
96
95 - Expected Champions total
94
93
92
91 - Projected Champions
--------------------------------------------
90 - Projected Promotion
--------------------------------------------
89
88 - Projected home advantage play offs
87 - Luton Town (need 3 points from 4 games for promotion and 4 points to be Champions; need 8 points to guarantee promotion whatever happens)
86
85
84
83
82 - Barnsley (need 8 points from 4 games for promotion)
81
80 - Sunderland, Portsmouth (need 10 points from 5 games for promotion)
79 - Charlton Athletic (need to win all of their games for promotion)
78
77
76
75
74
73 - Projected Play Offs
--------------------------------------------
72
71
70
69 - Doncaster Rovers (need 4 points from 4 games for a play off place)
68
67
66
65
64 - Peterborough United
63
62
61 - Coventry City
60 - Burton Albion
59
58 - Blackpool
57
56 - Fleetwood Town; Projected Top Half
--------------------------------------------
55
54
53 - Oxford United
52
51
50 - Shrewsbury Town
49 - Bristol Rovers, Projected Safety
--------------------------------------------
48 - Gillingham, Accrington Stanley
47 - Wycombe Wanderers, Plymouth Argyle
46
45 - Scunthorpe United, Rochdale (need 4 points from 4 games for survival)
44 - AFC Wimbledon (need 5 points from 4 games for survival)
43 - Southend United (need 6 points from 4 games for survival)
42 - Walsall (need 7 points from 4 games for survival)
41
40
39 - Projected Bottom Club
38
37
36 - Bradford City (are dead)

 

[Kenneth E End]

Update 20 Apr 2019

99 - Absolute maximum points for the Champions
98
97
96 - Expected Champions total
95
94
93
92 - Projected Promotion & Champions
--------------------------------------------
91
90 - Luton Town (projected to need 2 points from 3 games for promotion and be Champions; need 5 points to guarantee promotion whatever happens)
89
88
87
86 - Projected home advantage play offs
85 - Barnsley (need 7 points from 3 games for promotion)
84
83 - Sunderland, Portsmouth (need 9 points from 4 games for promotion)
82
81
80
79 - Charlton Athletic (out of the automatic promotion race)
78
77
76
75
74
73
72 - Projected Play Offs
--------------------------------------------
71
70
69 - Doncaster Rovers (need 3 points from 3 games for a play off place)
68
67
66
65 - Peterborough United (need 7 points from 3 games for a play off place)
64 - Coventry City (need to win all their remaining games for a play off place)
63
62
61
60 - Burton Albion
59 - Blackpool
58
57 - Fleetwood Town
56 - Oxford United, Projected Top Half
--------------------------------------------
55
54
53
52
51 - Gillingham
50 - Shrewsbury Town, Bristol Rovers
49 - , Projected Safety
--------------------------------------------
48 - Accrington Stanley, Rochdale
47 - Wycombe Wanderers, Plymouth Argyle (need 2 points from 3 games for survival)
46 - Scunthorpe United (need 3 points from 3 games for survival)
45 - AFC Wimbledon (need 4 points from 3 games for survival)
44 - Southend United (need 5 points from 3 games for survival)
43 - Walsall (need 6 points from 3 games for survival)
42
41
40
39 - Projected Bottom Club
38
37
36 - Bradford City (relegated)

 

[Craig]

Can we get an update on this, Kenny?