The Title race™

[Bilo]

It's ten games in, it's november, it's officially ok to look at the table even if you followed football in 70's.

Over the past five seasons, we've seen City win it twice while Manchester United, Chelsea and Leicester all have won the trophy on one occasion each. Over these years the most points accumulated was 89 (City 2012 and United 2013). The least points required to win the title over these five years came last season when Leicester did it with only 81 points, the least since United in 2011 (80 points).

Right now, we've got three teams at the top of the table on 23 points each, or 2,3 points per game, an average that would result in 87 points -- clear title winning form from Liverpool, City and Arsenal.

Lingering one point behind is Chelsea on 22 (84 points average) and Spurs on 20 (76 point average, usual albeit innacurate benchmark for top 4).

Out of the annually expected top six*, United are lagging behind eight points off the top 3. In between them and Tottenham are perhaps surprisingly Ronald Koeman's Everton and definitely surprisingly Walter Mazzari's Watford. Maybe three at the back is the next flavour of the month?

So, here we are.

1. Who will win it?
2. How many points will it take?
3. Can anyone outside the annually expected top six make a surprise title tilt?

* City, United, Tottenham, Liverpool, Chelsea, Arsenal.

 

[epic73]

Watford are in 7th, they could possibly make an attempt at top 6.

 

[Pagnell]

1. City
2. Arsenal
3. Liverpool
4. Chelsea
-----------
5. Spurs
6. United

As much as I'd love us to win the title, that final top 6 would be my bet currently. Predicting points would be pointless (excuse the pun). Everton could have a shot at 5th or 6th but over 38 games I doubt it. No team outside the current top 4 as it stands will challenge for the title.

An additional question of my own, if my United prediction above turns out to be correct, will Mourinho keep his job? After what has been spent not finishing top 4 would be hilarious.

 

[epic73]

An additional question of my own, if my United prediction above turns out to be correct, will Mourinho keep his job? After what has been spent not finishing top 4 would be hilarious.

No. I think he'll need top 4 or within 4-5 points of it to stay. I don't think he'll necessarily stay if he gets that done, but I don't think he will if he doesn't.

 

[G-Dragon]

I think City will win the title unfortunately. They simply have the players and manager with experience winning titles. They have also looked a step better than other contenders.
-Spurs are really lacking any attacking threat at the moment. Unless Kane starts firing like last two seasons they will struggle for top 4.
-Liverpool have started very well. However, we can't expect our attacking form to last for the whole season. Just can't see us getting 1-0 wins with our defense.
-Chelsea have improved recently with the 3 CB formation. Won't be too long until it gets found out imo. Costa has been immense though.
-Arsenal will do Arsenal.
-United shouldn't even be in this conversation.
-Don't think anyone outside the annually expected top 6 to push for title. Leicester fluked it last season.

 

[Pagnell]

Leicester fluked it last season.

STFU.

 

[G-Dragon]

STFU.

??? Its the truth. Does not mean its a bad thing. I would love us to fluke a title win

 

[Pagnell]

Only an idiot would claim its possible to fluke a league title after 38 games.

Wait, why am I bothering?

 

[Forthright]

??? Its the truth. Does not mean its a bad thing. I would love us to fluke a title win

On that basis Liverpool fluked their last major trophy in 2005?

 

[epic73]

On that basis Liverpool fluked their last major trophy in 2005?

Do you even support anyone or are you just here to troll?

 

[G-Dragon]

On that basis Liverpool fluked their last major trophy in 2005?

Only won it 5 times you know

 

[Forthright]

United can only hope to reach 6th at best. Pogba is turning out to be an expensive flop, Jose no longer trusts Mkhtaryian, Zlatan was never as good as he thought and in any event is way past his best.

Spurs are struggling and will suffer without Kane. The combination of Europe and lack of squad depth may cost them in the long term.

Man City look like out and out favourites. Chelsea still have the second strongest squad and should push them for the title. Arsenal may also do well this season.

4th spot will be open for a number of the smaller teams, including the two Merseyside clubs and Spurs.

 

[Forthright]

Only won it 5 times you know

I was talking about 2005.

 

[Skinner]

Arsenal have a better squad than Chelsea imo

 

[JimJams]

We're coming above Man Utd.

 

[SALTIRE]

Far too early to state who going to win it even if there does look like five main contenders just now, but none of them are perfect. City the favourites with the squad they have and Pep in charge but they have looked flaky the last few weeks; Arsenal are looking a real threat and have a balanced side and are playing well, but still have the usual questions to answer; Liverpool look great going forward and have improved defensively, but still seem to be a bit too gung-ho just now and that may catch up with us in the end; Chelsea have looked good since they switched to a back three, but if Hazard and Costa start dipping in form will they continue scoring goals, and will that bsck three get worked out soon; and finally Spurs are defensively strong but seem to be struggling for goals at present and are dying to get Harry Kane back.

 

[Ablur]

It's exciting but early. One thing I do hate though is when we play at the end of the weekend as it usually means we have to play catch up and the pressure is on.

It would never happen but it'd be immense for both Saturday football and for excitement if all games kicked off at 3pm.

I think City and Arsenal will battle it out for top spot and then Liverpool, Spurs, Chelsea and United will be hunting for 3rd and 4th.

 

[smat]

Question 4... would Bilo have made this thread if Liverpool weren't doing so well?

Answer... no, he wouldn't even be here.

 

[Pagnell]

Ouch.

Although in his defence, it's unlikely anyone would make this type of thread if their team wasn't in the mix.

 

[smat]

I do it with fondness. I'm very fond of Bilo. Fond.

 

[Forthright]

Liverpool fans should be allowed their moment of excitement. It normally all changes come the new year.

 

[HarvSFC]

It's ten games in, it's november, it's officially ok to look at the table even if you followed football in 70's.

Over the past five seasons, we've seen City win it twice while Manchester United, Chelsea and Leicester all have won the trophy on one occasion each. Over these years the most points accumulated was 89 (City 2012 and United 2013). The least points required to win the title over these five years came last season when Leicester did it with only 81 points, the least since United in 2011 (80 points).

Right now, we've got three teams at the top of the table on 23 points each, or 2,3 points per game, an average that would result in 87 points -- clear title winning form from Liverpool, City and Arsenal.

Lingering one point behind is Chelsea on 22 (84 points average) and Spurs on 20 (76 point average, usual albeit innacurate benchmark for top 4).

Out of the annually expected top six*, United are lagging behind eight points off the top 3. In between them and Tottenham are perhaps surprisingly Ronald Koeman's Everton and definitely surprisingly Walter Mazzari's Watford. Maybe three at the back is the next flavour of the month?

So, here we are.

1. Who will win it?
2. How many points will it take?
3. Can anyone outside the annually expected top six make a surprise title tilt?

* City, United, Tottenham, Liverpool, Chelsea, Arsenal.

Koeman's switch to three defenders at the back for us last season took us from six losses from eight matches to the Premier League form side. We had Bertrand playing as a third centre-back alongside Fonte and Van Dijk and it worked great.

Although Koeman with us changed around the defence depending on how many strikers the opposition had on the pitch, 2 = 3, 1 = 2.

 

[Bilo]

Question 4... would Bilo have made this thread if Liverpool weren't doing so well?

Answer... no, he wouldn't even be here.

Ouch.

Although in his defence, it's unlikely anyone would make this type of thread if their team wasn't in the mix.

I do it with fondness. I'm very fond of Bilo. Fond.

Excuse me first and foremost I like you too smat and I don't mind being alone in that, I've stood by you since you got Darlington promoted to league 2 mate.

Secondly, this isn't the first title race thread I've made, I've made a couple down the years (which is more threads than Liverpool title challenges fyi). I just usually don't because someone else does it before me. So there's that. No question four. Three questions and that's it it's my thread.

 

[smat]

I feel so ashamed.

 

[Ablur]

Liverpool fans should be allowed their moment of excitement. It normally all changes come the new year.

This is a bit untrue. We're usually out of it by October and then saying that it'll be our year next year.

 

[johnnytodd]

Thanks for mentioning Everton and I know you did it so I didn't ruin the thread.

Watching City tonight was a joy I think they can get 2 nd behind Arsenal.

 

[Liverlad]

I reckon Arsenal will win it, think we'll finish 3rd.

 

[SALTIRE]

Thanks for mentioning Everton and I know you did it so I didn't ruin the thread.

Watching City tonight was a joy I think they can get 2 nd behind Arsenal.

Yep they used Liverpool's preseason tactics against Barca tonight when we gubbed them 4 - 0.

 

[The Paranoid Pineapple]

Just happy we're involved at all given the HORROR SHOW that was last season. Dunno who's going to win. Prolly Man City but I I thought they'd clean up last season too.

 

[Bilo]

Oh look a Chelsea fan.