2024/25 League Two Promotion Thread

[JJ1990]

Time to start up the promotion thread for another season as we're into the business end of things. Lot of big spenders going for promotion and a few surprise packages mixed in as well. Very different this year in that there is currently only one outstanding team in Walsall and the rest of the challengers all look very similar. Going to be a fascinating battle for the top 3 and top 7.

Also back is the real League Two table. This shows what markers teams need to hit in order to reach their goals, be it the title, automatics or play-offs. The average totals are calculated from the start of the 2000-01 season right through to last season and are what each side that finished 1st, 3rd and 7th achieved in those seasons. The 19-20 season is excluded obviously. I only include the teams in the top 10, even if the sides below them are level on points. Sorry MK Dons and Bromley.

104 - Predicted Champions
90 - Average Champions
89 -
88 -
87 -
86 -
85 -
84 -
83 -
82 - Average Automatics
81 - Predicted Automatics
80 -
79 -
78 -
77 -
76 -
75 -
74 - Predicted Play Offs
73 -
72 - Average Play Offs
71 -
70 -
69 -
68 -
67 -
66 -
65 -
64 -
63 -
62 -
61 -
60 -
59 -
58 -
57 -
56 -
55 -
54 -
53 -
52 - Walsall(23)
51 -
50 -
49 -
48 -
47 -
46 -
45 -
44 -
43 -
42 - Crewe Alex(24), Salford(24)
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41 - Port Vale(25)
40 - AFC Wimbledon(23), Notts County(24), Doncaster(25)
-------------------------------------------------
39 -
38 - Bradford(24)
37 - Grimsby(25)
36 -
35 -
34 - Chesterfield(24)

It's a long table, but it'll get shorter each week. Obviously the notable thing is how bunched up everyone is from 2nd down to 7th, with just 2 points in it. Bradford and Grimsby not a million miles away either, with a few others lurking a bit further behind.

In terms of upcoming fixtures, the teams in the top third(1-8) will be listed red, the middle third(9-16) orange and the bottom third green(17-24).

1st - Walsall, 52 points, GD 23: Tranmere(H), MK Dons(H), Bradford(A), Fleetwood(A), Salford(H)
2nd - Crewe Alexandra, 42 points, GD 11: Swindon(A), Morecambe(A), Accrington(H), Wimbledon(H), Harrogate(A)
3rd - Salford City, 42 points, GD 10: Fleetwood(H), Cheltenham(A), Newport(H), Walsall(A), Bromley(H)
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4th - Port Vale, 41 points, GD 4: Barrow(H), Newport(H), Chesterfield(A), Colchester(A), Accrington(H)
5th - AFC Wimbledon, 40 points, GD 16: Cheltenham(H), Tranmere(H), MK Dons(A), Crewe(A), Bradford(H)
6th - Notts County, 40 points, GD 12: Grimsby(A), Accrington(A), Bromley(H), Carlisle(H), Gillingham(A)
7th - Doncaster Rovers, 40 points, GD 5: Gillingham(A), Harrogate(H), Barrow(A), MK Dons(H), Chesterfield(A)
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8th - Bradford City, 38 points, GD 6: Carlisle(A), Walsall(H), Morecambe(H), Wimbledon(A), Harrogate(H)
9th - Grimsby Town, 37 points, GD -4: Notts County(H), Chesterfield(H), Barrow(A), Gillingham(H), Bromley(A)
10th - Chesterfield, 34 points, GD 9: Grimsby(A), Port Vale(H), Bromley(H), Cheltenham(A), Doncaster(H)

A mixed bag for most of the top 10 in terms of forthcoming fixtures. Grimsby and Chesterfield look to have the trickiest set of games, whilst Crewe have a very favourable run that they'll need to take advantage of.

Next week's fixtures:

Saturday 11th January

Grimsby Town v Notts County
Walsall v Tranmere Rovers
AFC Wimbledon v Cheltenham Town
Port Vale v Barrow
Swindon Town v Crewe Alexandra

FA Cup action means a shorter fixture list. Fairly winnable games for all the promotion chasers in general, Grimsby v Notts County looks a tasty game and the pick of the bunch.

 

[SaddlerJonny]

Get through January with the squad mostly intact, that's all that's on our minds at the moment.

I'm used to wanting lots of activity in the window but not this one, let's hear absolutely nothing. Maybe bring a midfielder in, and I'm a happy man.

 

[valefan16]

January will be interesting as the big spenders usually pull their power to try and get over the line but its very open, Walsall aside no one is in great consistent form.

Grimsby and Chesterfield have a tough run of fixtures and that could decide their likely trajectory as a little gap opening up on 10th down with it congested above.

From our point of view the return of Garrity has seen a swift improvement and have Stockley, Sang, Byers and Harper in training which should increase our options and quality available significantly on recent weeks.

Expecting we will buy, rumours of Callum Patterson being looked at but would be a huge coup if that one was true, can't see it but then wouldn't have seen us getting Byers.

After the Grimsby debacle we seem to have had a kick up the backside, gone back to basics which means no more messing around the back line, Ripley dropped and the return from the cold of stalwart Nathan Smith who's made us look better from the point of being a pure defender.

Have to build on it with some winnable games to come, especially at home if we want the automatics and to not waste this squad so a big month for us really.

Walsall might lose some key players, Jellis, Lowe and the centre half being the worry but even then they would need a mega collapse, probably need 30 points from 23 which is bang average form.

Otherwise flip a coin on the other 2 and the 4 play off sides come May as it stands, Notts look good on the eye but can flatter to deceive, Doncaster don't seem to get any momentum with the odd win or two and then a couple of defeats, Crewe don't lose but do draw a lot like us and AFCW seem to go through phases.

As for Salford they must have improved dramatically since we played them twice in August but seem to just not concede goals which gives you a chance!

 

[Crewelad87]

If we can keep this squad together without losing any of our loanees and keeping the majority fit, we should be in this for the long haul. We've only post 4 games all season, with 2 of them being our 1st 2, and our home record is looking pretty solid again having not lost here since early August. Lankester could be the difference for us, since he's come back from injury against Vale in Novemeber he's registered at least one goal or an assist in every game bar the 0-0 vs Colchester, keeping him fit will be vital.

 

[Cloudy]

Grimsby are not, in my opinion, close to a side capable of a top 7 finish.

The best sides I have seen based on one game against us are, in no particular order, Crewe, Doncaster & Walsall. I would expect all of them to be in the play offs at the very least

 

[kieran_vale]

I think realistically Walsall should get automatic promotion. There’s a world they could get pipped to the title, seen it almost happen to FGR when they had what looked an insurmountable lead but promotion is the obvious main aim.

Beyond that who knows. Unless we can do better at home it makes our pathway too difficult for autos at least. Too many teams at the bottom end have come to us and come away with something for it to be a coincidence.

 

[saddler78]

I think realistically Walsall should get automatic promotion. There’s a world they could get pipped to the title, seen it almost happen to FGR when they had what looked an insurmountable lead but promotion is the obvious main aim.

Beyond that who knows. Unless we can do better at home it makes our pathway too difficulty for autos at least. Too many teams at the bottom end have come to us and come away with something for it to be a coincidence.

Yeah we should really now not arsed about the title myself as long as we can go up Not had a promotion since 2007 that's far too long

 

[valefan16]

I think realistically Walsall should get automatic promotion. There’s a world they could get pipped to the title, seen it almost happen to FGR when they had what looked an insurmountable lead but promotion is the obvious main aim.

Beyond that who knows. Unless we can do better at home it makes our pathway too difficulty for autos at least. Too many teams at the bottom end have come to us and come away with something for it to be a coincidence.

Been to negative at home for me when teams sit in themselves, took Chesterfield by surprise a bit and dominated them first half and Swindon played fairly open and we dominated that one but since then teams have largely sat in and without our midfield options haven't had the key to unlock games. Garrity back may change that and certainly Byers with his quality but think even in this run we could of been more aggressive and attacking.

That said we've only lost twice at home, to Doncaster early on and Walsall to a freak goal in mental conditions so we tick the points over and a small improvement should hopefully turn that around. These two are massive games I would say (note the 2 for 1 offer hopefully gets a few more behind us).

 

[Gladders]

Nice to be included in this thread instead of the other one for a change.

We all would have accepted and indeed expected a comfortable mid table finish at the start of the season and that's where we are heading, unfortunately some now won't be happy with that!

 

[FiRTHYY]

Grimsby are not, in my opinion, close to a side capable of a top 7 finish.

The best sides I have seen based on one game against us are, in no particular order, Crewe, Doncaster & Walsall. I would expect all of them to be in the play offs at the very least

Crewe and Walsall were gash.

Only decent teams we’ve faced are Doncaster and Chesterfield.

 

[Crewelad87]

Crewe and Walsall were gash.

Only decent teams we’ve faced are Doncaster and Chesterfield.

We basically played you in the middle of a hurricane, not exactly the game to judge a team.

 

[Si Robin]

Nice to be included in this thread instead of the other one for a change.

We all would have accepted and indeed expected a comfortable mid table finish at the start of the season and that's where we are heading, unfortunately some now won't be happy with that!

At least you're included in a thread.

We're so mid (as my son would say) that I doubt we'll even be mentioned in the Mid Table Trophy thread when it comes up.

 

[FiRTHYY]

We basically played you in the middle of a hurricane, not exactly the game to judge a team.

We were without Andy Cook and down to 10 men!

Stop being precious.

 

[The_Viking_Magpie]

We basically played you in the middle of a hurricane, not exactly the game to judge a team.

We played them in good weather and we're 3 up at half time. Followed by a pipe and slippers second half. We were pretty decent that day.

Andy Cook played, allegedly.

 

[DearneValleyRover]

Unless we sort our midfield out we won’t make the play-offs

 

[dannyc5]

We played them in good weather and we're 3 up at half time. Followed by a pipe and slippers second half. We were pretty decent that day.

Andy Cook played, allegedly.

Bradford only come to life when the wind nudges 50mph.

 

[FiRTHYY]

We played them in good weather and we're 3 up at half time. Followed by a pipe and slippers second half. We were pretty decent that day.

Andy Cook played, allegedly.

BUT, we always lose at ML.

 

[OneDecentLester]

I won’t be getting involved in talking up our chances on this thread until our medical department sorts themselves out

BUT…

The cavalry (well, less than half of those currently injured) are coming, (very) slowly, but surely…

 

[The_Viking_Magpie]

There is a lot of experience and in that photo.

 

[Optipez]

At least you're included in a thread.

We're so mid (as my son would say) that I doubt we'll even be mentioned in the Mid Table Trophy thread when it comes up.

I think one of you or Bromley may make up ground to challenge for playoffs. Last five games more important as a guide to potential than what happened in September.

 

[Si Robin]

I think we're a midtable team to be honest. We could probably make a push for the playoffs, but if we do then going up would do us no favours to be honest.

Stability for this year, then make a push next year is the plan.

EDIT - Not that I'd look a gift horse in the mouth of course. I'd rather be in League 1 and more than one year away from non-league than not.

 

[OneDecentLester]

Throwing my 2 pence worth in on the teams included in this and what I’ve seen of them:

Walsall - For me, dead certs to go up. Strong, physical and organised side with a top quality forward that delivers week in week out. Best side I’ve seen at our place all season, we did well to get a point.

Crewe - WTF are they doing up there from what I saw of them, christ. In fairness, that game seem to kick them into action and have been decent & solid since but wow were they bad that day.

Salford - Once again, wtf are they doing up there. Bunch of thugs when we played them and fluked a 1-1 draw at our place but looked nothing more than lower mid table. Their mad recent run has done wonders for them, what is it now? 6 wins in a row without conceding a goal!?

Port Vale - We put in a stinking performance at their place in fairness, and they physically dominated us on the day as we played right into their hands with what we were trying to do BUT, must say I didn’t think they had that much quality & it hasn’t surprised me to see them drop of the pace recently.

Wimbledon - Another big physical side but didn’t look anything special when our thrown together XI beat them the other week. Didn’t see anything in their side that made me think they’ll threaten auto’s. Solid outfit though, wouldn’t be surprised to see them in the play offs at the end of the season.

Notts - Remain unconvinced by them but in fairness they seem to have put a decent run together recently. Another side that got a flukey point at our place with a last min penalty!
I always feel like they’re a shoe in to win at home though (even if they’re not necessarily), never confident when playing them at ML and I won’t be when we head there in March.

Doncaster - Another that looked really poor against us when we visited in September and beat them 0-3. They seemed a very undisciplined side to me full of petulance, and even tho it seems like they lose every week they’re still in and around it so must be picking points up somewhere.

Bradford - Went there and dominated them on their own patch for 60/65 minutes the other week with a patched up side that included 4 youth teamers on the bench, but two bad errors were punished by them and meant we left empty handed. Another side I didn’t think much of tbh (still beat us so fairplay).

Grimsby - One of the best sides to visit our place this year, we had a great game against them and edged it 2-1 in the end but thought they looked great. Had some honking results tho (like must of tbf) so be interesting to see if they stay the course.

Us - Feel like we’ve left a hell of a lot of points out there this season in games we ‘should’ have won but didn’t, especially at home in the early stages of the season. Not sure if that’s a great ‘knack’ to have tbh.. would prefer the other way round! Obviously we’re in disarray atm with the injuries leading to 3 losses in a row (deserved at least 4 points imo), but if we can get bodies back fit asap and navigate the January market well then we will be in with a shout but we will see.

All in all, my summary is that whichever team can maintain being the least inconsistent (shit) & injury free to key players for the remainder of the season will join Walsall in league 1 next year

 

[WilsdenBantam]

Lets be honest anything could happen, as the post above proves. We destroyed Grimsby and we should have scored more but I bet there are fans that would say they looked a lot better than we did against them etc.

As Firthy said Crewe and Walsall looked crap against us, but will have blown other teams away.

Other than Walsall, it's never been as open and I think it is more due to inconsistency rather than loads of quality at the top.

 

[dannyc5]

Throwing my 2 pence worth in on the teams included in this and what I’ve seen of them:

Walsall - For me, dead certs to go up. Strong, physical and organised side with a top quality forward that delivers week in week out. Best side I’ve seen at our place all season, we did well to get a point.

Crewe - WTF are they doing up there from what I saw of them, christ. In fairness, that game seem to kick them into action and have been decent & solid since but wow were they bad that day.

Salford - Once again, wtf are they doing up there. Bunch of thugs when we played them and fluked a 1-1 draw at our place but looked nothing more than lower mid table. Their mad recent run has done wonders for them, what is it now? 6 wins in a row without conceding a goal!?

Port Vale - We put in a stinking performance at their place in fairness, and they physically dominated us on the day as we played right into their hands with what we were trying to do BUT, must say I didn’t think they had that much quality & it hasn’t surprised me to see them drop of the pace recently.

Wimbledon - Another big physical side but didn’t look anything special when our thrown together XI beat them the other week. Didn’t see anything in their side that made me think they’ll threaten auto’s. Solid outfit though, wouldn’t be surprised to see them in the play offs at the end of the season.

Notts - Remain unconvinced by them but in fairness they seem to have put a decent run together recently. Another side that got a flukey point at our place with a last min penalty!
I always feel like they’re a shoe in to win at home though (even if they’re not necessarily), never confident when playing them at ML and I won’t be when we head there in March.

Doncaster - Another that looked really poor against us when we visited in September and beat them 0-3. They seemed a very undisciplined side to me full of petulance, and even tho it seems like they lose every week they’re still in and around it so must be picking points up somewhere.

Bradford - Went there and dominated them on their own patch for 60/65 minutes the other week with a patched up side that included 4 youth teamers on the bench, but two bad errors were punished by them and meant we left empty handed. Another side I didn’t think much of tbh (still beat us so fairplay).

Grimsby - One of the best sides to visit our place this year, we had a great game against them and edged it 2-1 in the end but thought they looked great. Had some honking results tho (like must of tbf) so be interesting to see if they stay the course.

Us - Feel like we’ve left a hell of a lot of points out there this season in games we ‘should’ have won but didn’t, especially at home in the early stages of the season. Not sure if that’s a great ‘knack’ to have tbh.. would prefer the other way round! Obviously we’re in disarray atm with the injuries leading to 3 losses in a row (deserved at least 4 points imo), but if we can get bodies back fit asap and navigate the January market well then we will be in with a shout but we will see.

All in all, my summary is that whichever team can maintain being the least inconsistent (shit) & injury free to key players for the remainder of the season will join Walsall in league 1 next year

The thought of a Chesterfield fan looking at the League table and seeing Crewe in 2nd amuses me. You could have beaten us 10-0 that day!

Football is very strange, sometimes. I went away from that game thinking you were gonna win the League, and we were gonna be struggling near the bottom.

 

[The_Viking_Magpie]

We very rarely beat the top teams, when that is the case you are well and truly handicapped to finish top 3. However, not sure there are 7 sides/squads better than us so we should really be playoff bound even with part time head coach in charge who may actually know more than the fans give him credit for.

Like quiet a few returning players from injuries and what happens in January will shape a lot how it all ends up.

 

[AdamStag]

Be some fun and games if Walsall went up and somehow Birmingham didn’t (though they won’t, when they’ve a budget of a medium sized african country)

Crewe were in it for most of last season too and i think only really hobbled by lack of depth/injuries - maybe a blessing in disguise they didn’t go up last season if better equipped this time round.

Would be nice to see our brothers from port vale come up too.

If you’re relatively settled player/manager wise league 1 is certainly doable.

 

[jacobncfc]

We very rarely beat the top teams, when that is the case you are well and truly handicapped to finish top 3. However, not sure there are 7 sides/squads better than us so we should really be playoff bound even with part time head coach in charge who may actually know more than the fans give him credit for.

Like quiet a few returning players from injuries and what happens in January will shape a lot how it all ends up.

I absolutely don’t think we will because… reasons, but we should be getting top three from here.

I’m currently willing to chalk that two or three month spell when we were abysmal down to all of the injuries, but if that doesn’t happen again, I think everyone would generally agree that we have a solid defence and goalkeeper, a striker who is on course for 20 goals, another who’ll get 15, two of the league’s most creative players from last season’s team of the year, and a solid/settled central midfield partnership.

I think we could do with a bit more in terms of options off the bench, Brown in particularly just hasn’t worked out and put a lot of strain on Jatta and Didzy, and I’m not totally sure who our best bet as the other wing back with Jones is, but really these should be fairly minor things.

Unless we lose a load of players to injury again or sell someone important, there shouldn’t really be any excuses in what is an inconsistent league this year and likely to be a low points total for second and third.

 

[valefan16]

Interesting going with the same outlook from what I have seen:

Walsall - Hard to judge as it was played in gale force conditions, looked fairly solid and worked hard but neither side could really be judged for their football ability in that tie. Not seen them on TV yet this season to compare either as yet.

Crewe - Against us fairly modest first half, dominated against 10 men as you'd expect with us parking the bus Moore style so hard to balance a fair judgement of that as with 11 its a different second half but seem more a team better than the sum of its parts which is always positive. Much less the "Crewe Way" these days and seem much more robust than the days of Anthony Griffith steam roller into them first tackle to rough them up under MA.

Salford - Awful against us twice, offered absolutely nothing but looked much better v Notts the other week on TV, seem like a defensively solid outfit who can grind out the 1-0, 2-0 wins...

Port Vale - We grew into the league after a slow start but the FA Cup break and injuries derailed all momentum and Moore didn't seem to know how to turn it around, players returning such as Garrity and we actually have a midfield now.

Wimbledon - We beat these but I am going to put it out there that they probably are the best side to visit Vale Park this season, it was a mental game and they are very physical and powerful, a proper L2 side, not pretty on the eye but very difficult to play against.

Notts - Hit and miss, seem to struggle against the top sides but wallop the poor ones, whenever i see them they look weaker defensively than most up there but will probably grind enough points against sides outside the top 7 to be up there come May. See them as very similar to us so would like to see them come up as long as we do as well!

Doncaster - Had three games v these (W2, L1), at home we set up completely wrong and they devastated us on the counter, roles reversed slightly on Saturday and we didnt make the same mistake twice, actually looked poorer against us in the Vertu Cup when they threw on their better players oddly. A bit unsure on them. Dont seem to get any momentum.

Bradford - Probably more reliant on one man than most which may need rectifying in January but are clinging on in the race and have a chance. Nothing spectacular against us bar the goal but in fairness did get the job done.

Grimsby - Didn't see the game and we pretty much handed it them on a Christmas platter, seem very hot and cold though!

Chesterfield - One of the poorer sides to visit VP on the day so below their best which makes it hard to judge, don't think they laid a glove so probably get a better perspective in a couple of weeks, looked ok on TV without being spectacular when I have seen them... probably a season too soon for them? Come a long way from the dark depths they've been and their time will come but see what January brings.

 

[Optipez]

We very rarely beat the top teams, when that is the case you are well and truly handicapped to finish top 3. However, not sure there are 7 sides/squads better than us so we should really be playoff bound even with part time head coach in charge who may actually know more than the fans give him credit for.

Like quiet a few returning players from injuries and what happens in January will shape a lot how it all ends up.

We've taken 4 from 21 against the top 7. No points from 12 against the top three. If that sort of form doesn't change, as you say making the top three looks close to impossible.
Walsall looked head and shoulders the best team we've played, beat us twice, not by much but they have the points.
Vale looked strong and organised without being an attractive side.
Crewe beat us easy but we had our weakest team out all season for different reasons.
Chesterfield looked good going forwards but not very secure.
Grimsby was very early on, bit of a mad game with reffing decisions but they looked ropey in defence but played nice football.
Bradford looked poor but we've become a bit of a bogey side for them so probably not a true reflection.
Salford were the second best team we've played. We were utterly shite, terrible, but they won well. Something went off after that game, big row, change of tactics, players returning, who knows but something happened because we've been a much better team since.
Wimbledon could have gone either way, very organised perhaps should have been braver at our place but never went for it and lost by the odd goal.
Edit: Forgot Doncaster. They were poor first half but we ended up clinging on the second half for a point. Molyneaux one of the standout players I've seen us against this year.

 

[leedsvaliant]

Be some fun and games if Walsall went up and somehow Birmingham didn’t (though they won’t, when they’ve a budget of a medium sized african country)

Crewe were in it for most of last season too and i think only really hobbled by lack of depth/injuries - maybe a blessing in disguise they didn’t go up last season if better equipped this time round.

Would be nice to see our brothers from port vale come up too.

If you’re relatively settled player/manager wise league 1 is certainly doable.

Amen to that brother!