2024/25 League Two Relegation Thread

[JJ1990]

Time for the relegation thread. Some big clubs down at the bottom desperately trying to avoid the drop in Carlisle, Swindon and Tranmere, plus a few smaller ones. Looking like a particularly desperate scrap for survival, with a few knowing relegation could be financially crippling for them.

52 - Guaranteed Survival
51 -
50 -
49 -
48 -
47 - Average Survival(00/01-23/24)
46 -
45 -
44 - Expected Survival
43 -
42 - Crewe(24), Salford(24)
41 - Port Vale(25)
40 - AFC Wimbledon(23), Notts County(24), Doncaster(25)
39 -
38 - Bradford(24)
37 - Grimsby(25)
36 -
35 -
34 -
33 -
32 - Chesterfield(24), MK Dons(23), Bromley(24)
31 - Cheltenham(24)
30 - Gillingham(23)
29 -
28 - Barrow(24)
27 - Fleetwood(22), Colchester(24)
26 - Newport(23)
25 - Accrington(23), Tranmere(23), Harrogate(25)
24 - Swindon(25)
------------------------------------------------------
23 -
22 -
21 -
20 - Morecambe(24)
19 -
18 - Carlisle(24)

Yes, it seems silly to include teams near the top, but I'll take them out once they get past 51 points. Both teams in the bottom 2 need points quickly to start closing the gap to the teams above them. Can see everyone up to Newport being still in danger.

In terms of upcoming fixtures, the teams in the top third(1-8) will be listed red, the middle third(9-16) orange and the bottom third green(17-24).

17th: Colchester, 27 points, GD 0: Bromley(A), Harrogate(A), Morecambe(H), Port Vale(H), Tranmere(A)
18th: Newport, 26 points, GD -10: Port Vale(A), Swindon(H), Salford(A), Barrow(H), Crewe(A)
19th: Accrington, 25 points, GD -8: Notts County(H), Crewe(A), Cheltenham(H), Port Vale(A), Wimbledon(H)
20th: Tranmere, 25 points, GD -15: Walsall(A), Wimbledon(A), Gillingham(H), Swindon(A), Colchester(H)
21st: Harrogate, 25 points, GD -16: Cheltenham(H), Colchester(H), Doncaster(A), MK Dons(A), Crewe(H)
22nd: Swindon, 24 points, GD -10: Crewe(H), Barrow(H), Newport(A), Tranmere(H), Carlisle(A)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
23rd: Morecambe, 20 points, GD -17: Crewe(H), Carlisle(A), Bradford(A), Fleetwood(H), Notts County(A)
24th: Carlisle, 18 points, GD -19: MK Dons(H), Bradford(H), Fleetwood(A), Notts County(A), Swindon(H)

An initial look at the forthcoming weeks for the strugglers show Colchester and Swindon having favourable games that they'll need to take advantage of. A tough few weeks coming for Carlisle and Accrington especially.

Next week's fixtures:

Saturday 11th January

Walsall v Tranmere Rovers
Carlisle United v Milton Keynes Dons
Swindon Town v Crewe Alexandra

As mentioned in the promotion thread, a smaller fixture list with Morecambe and Accrington in FA Cup action. Only 3 games and 3 tough ones for these strugglers. So yeah, let the pessimism and hysteria over who's going down commence. It's going to be a fun read.

 

[Meadow]

Time for the relegation thread. Some big clubs down at the bottom desperately trying to avoid the drop in Carlisle, Swindon and Tranmere, plus a few smaller ones. Looking like a particularly desperate scrap for survival, with a few knowing relegation could be financially crippling for them.

52 - Guaranteed Survival
51 -
50 -
49 -
48 -
47 - Average Survival(00/01-23/24)
46 -
45 -
44 - Expected Survival
43 -
42 - Crewe(24), Salford(24)
41 - Port Vale(25)
40 - AFC Wimbledon(23), Notts County(24), Doncaster(25)
39 -
38 - Bradford(24)
37 - Grimsby(25)
36 -
35 -
34 -
33 -
32 - Chesterfield(24), MK Dons(23), Bromley(24)
31 - Cheltenham(24)
30 - Gillingham(23)
29 -
28 - Barrow(24)
27 - Fleetwood(22), Colchester(24)
26 - Newport(23)
25 - Accrington(23), Tranmere(23), Harrogate(25)
24 - Swindon(25)
------------------------------------------------------
23 -
22 -
21 -
20 - Morecambe(24)
19 -
18 - Carlisle(24)

Yes, it seems silly to include teams near the top, but I'll take them out once they get past 51 points. Both teams in the bottom 2 need points quickly to start closing the gap to the teams above them. Can see everyone up to Newport being still in danger.

In terms of upcoming fixtures, the teams in the top third(1-8) will be listed red, the middle third(9-16) orange and the bottom third green(17-24).

17th: Colchester, 27 points, GD 0: Bromley(A), Harrogate(A), Morecambe(H), Port Vale(H), Tranmere(A)
18th: Newport, 26 points, GD -10: Port Vale(A), Swindon(H), Salford(A), Barrow(H), Crewe(A)
19th: Accrington, 25 points, GD -8: Notts County(H), Crewe(A), Cheltenham(H), Port Vale(A), Wimbledon(H)
20th: Tranmere, 25 points, GD -15: Walsall(A), Wimbledon(A), Gillingham(H), Swindon(A), Colchester(H)
21st: Harrogate, 25 points, GD -16: Cheltenham(H), Colchester(H), Doncaster(A), MK Dons(A), Crewe(H)
22nd: Swindon, 24 points, GD -10: Crewe(H), Barrow(H), Newport(A), Tranmere(H), Carlisle(A)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
23rd: Morecambe, 20 points, GD -17: Crewe(H), Carlisle(A), Bradford(A), Fleetwood(H), Notts County(A)
24th: Carlisle, 18 points, GD -19: MK Dons(H), Bradford(H), Fleetwood(A), Notts County(A), Swindon(H)

An initial look at the forthcoming weeks for the strugglers show Colchester and Swindon having favourable games that they'll need to take advantage of. A tough few weeks coming for Carlisle and Accrington especially.

Next week's fixtures:

Saturday 11th January

Walsall v Tranmere Rovers
Carlisle United v Milton Keynes Dons
Swindon Town v Crewe Alexandra

As mentioned in the promotion thread, a smaller fixture list with Morecambe and Accrington in FA Cup action. Only 3 games and 3 tough ones for these strugglers. So yeah, let the pessimism and hysteria over who's going down commence. It's going to be a fun read.

Walsall? Quite gratifying to see us near the top for a change. Until the rumour of Matty Stephens to Wycombe comes to fruition.

 

[hellogregory]

We are absolutely fucked. There’s no fight in our team at all. Just a bunch of overpaid tossers stealing a living. It’s beyond belief how bad we are.

100% down. The rest of the teams are battling to avoid one spot.

 

[SaddlerJonny]

Walsall? Quite gratifying to see us near the top for a change. Until the rumour of Matty Stephens to Wycombe comes to fruition.

Already at the 52 point mark.
We are staying up!!

 

[valefan16]

Nearly there!

Morecambe and Carlisle look most likely after the weekend has left a small gap and looking at upcoming fixtures it isn't going to get easier, Swindon have a chance with their fixtures but they are huge 6 pointers in there.

 

[Crewelad87]

Not looking good for Carlisle, but I still can't believe there in the worst two teams in this league. In both games vs us they've looked one of the better teams I've seen us play against. To be fair Morecambe weren't that bad either.

As for the worst, Harrogate, Tranmere and Bromley yesterday have been by far the worst I've seen this season.

 

[EnglishRed]

Morecambe and Harrogate please

 

[BarraMatt]

Only fair to include us in this thread. The captain and coach even admitted we're in a scrap on Saturday.

 

[hellogregory]

3 seasons ago when we were dire and Simpson came in and pulled off an escape. Well we are currently 8 points worse off than we were at this stage that season. That's how in the shit we are.

There's absolutely no chance this shower of shit stays up, even with more money and signings thrown at it.

 

[Ainsty]

We've been circling the drain ever since we came up from the NL. This year, next year sometime soon. Every year we stay up is a victory.

 

[Coalite]

As they're established Football League teams I'd prefer to see Carlisle and Tranmere stay up but the signs don't look great do they.

Carlisle already look like they have a mountain to climb and might well be grasping at straws with the volume of incomings.

Tranmere just seem to be dreadful with an unresolved ownership situation leaving them in limbo.

The rest are going to have to go some to end up being below those two.

 

[valefan16]

Tranmere remind me of Vale circa 2017-2019 pre Carol taking over. Hoepfully sort themselves out, its a big club and they've already been down there once.

 

[hellogregory]

Looks like it’s finally hitting home to a lot of people that we are going down.

 

[spireite]

Looks like it’s finally hitting home to a lot of people that we are going down.

I wouldn't worry about it, the NL is loads of fun, way more so than this league. It's utterly bizarre at times, hilarious and frustrating in equal measure. And the playoffs are the best in the country because of no 2-legs. You'll enjoy it, and I suspect soon be back.
Nothing nailed on yet of course, although these early January signings smack of panic.

 

[Alfie]

Relegation odds: -

 

[hellogregory]

13/8 is still great odds for us. We should be odds on by now.

I stuck £100 on when we were 14/1. Got various other bets on with different bookmakers as well.

The compo I will get for this relegation will be significant. Would still rather be losing it all, but never mind.

 

[Soup Ladle]

Morecambe and Harrogate please

Agreed, you need two tinpotters relegated with York and us promoted doing a Grimsby from 7th.

Although I won't mention it on here, I might laugh a little bit if Carlisle come down.

 

[Soup Ladle]

I wouldn't worry about it, the NL is loads of fun, way more so than this league. It's utterly bizarre at times, hilarious and frustrating in equal measure. And the playoffs are the best in the country because of no 2-legs. You'll enjoy it, and I suspect soon be back.
Nothing nailed on yet of course, although these early January signings smack of panic.

No point telling them about it, they've been there before.

It's not really loads of fun, it might be if you have good owners, some cash and the fanbase turning up but otherwise it's utterly shit.

 

[Soup Ladle]

Honestly speaking it looks fairly open, the only thing you can bet on is Colchester going on a 10 game losing run but then scrambling the bare minimum from the last 4 or 5 games to stay up. It's all they ever do.

 

[spireite]

No point telling them about it, they've been there before.

It's not really loads of fun, it might be if you have good owners, some cash and the fanbase turning up but otherwise it's utterly shit.

I really didn't mind it. Even when we nearly went down. Had 1 man and his dog turning up as an away contingent. The baffling decisions made by the league almost had a certain charm. I imagine it might have started wearing off had we been stuck down there much longer like, those 5/6 years were enough. I must say I prefer the football down there too, though. Teams almost naive in their willingness to have a go and play open football. L2 is much more structured and defence first, a lot more attritional by comparison.

 

[hellogregory]

We were down for one season 20 years ago. It was shite but when you’re going up in the first season it seems like fun.

I can imagine it will get pretty grim if down for 3+ years.

The thought of watching us play league games on artificial pitches for starters makes me feel sick.

 

[Soup Ladle]

I really didn't mind it. Even when we nearly went down. Had 1 man and his dog turning up as an away contingent. The baffling decisions made by the league almost had a certain charm. I imagine it might have started wearing off had we been stuck down there much longer like, those 5/6 years were enough. I must say I prefer the football down there too, though. Teams almost naive in their willingness to have a go and play open football. L2 is much more structured and defence first, a lot more attritional by comparison.

Fair points although up here with the howling winds and overcast skies add an extra layer of depression when you lose 1 nil at home to the likes of Guiseley.

There is a bit more football played and that's a thing come in recently, I only noticed last year at the start of our second sentence that even the traditional cloggers were playing it about more.

Was talking about this with I think the Oldham fans on the other forum, what is lacking down there is as you say no away fans and we feel that more than most due to location, but it's the real lack of atmosphere and intensity to any of the games unless you're playing another BELT. That's what I miss.

 

[Ainsty]

I wouldn't worry about it, the NL is loads of fun, way more so than this league. It's utterly bizarre at times, hilarious and frustrating in equal measure. And the playoffs are the best in the country because of no 2-legs. You'll enjoy it, and I suspect soon be back.
Nothing nailed on yet of course, although these early January signings smack of panic.

Some of our supporters are starting to say they would prefer to go down rather than hold on each year. I don't agree but I get where they are coming from. It isn't fun to be beaten week in and week out by better resourced clubs. If we go down I don't think we will ever come up again. We are more likely to do a Scunthorpe rather than a Forest Green.

 

[Spireitelass97]

I really didn't mind it. Even when we nearly went down. Had 1 man and his dog turning up as an away contingent. The baffling decisions made by the league almost had a certain charm. I imagine it might have started wearing off had we been stuck down there much longer like, those 5/6 years were enough. I must say I prefer the football down there too, though. Teams almost naive in their willingness to have a go and play open football. L2 is much more structured and defence first, a lot more attritional by comparison.

Come on now…our first couple of years down there were absolute hell. But once we improved a bit and we got our heads round being non league there were certain things I enjoyed.

If it meant we could get rid of certain w****** out of the club and rebuild, it was worth getting relegated but I’m in no hurry to go there again!

 

[Spireitelass97]

Some of our supporters are starting to say they would prefer to go down rather than hold on each year. I don't agree but I get where they are coming from. It isn't fun to be beaten week in and week out by better resourced clubs. If we go down I don't think we will ever come up again. We are more likely to do a Scunthorpe rather than a Forest Green.

It’s extremely hard to get promoted from NL so I’d say be careful what you wish for! If you have a crap/dodgy owner it might be one way to rid of em but you never know what/who will replace them. We were very lucky to be taken over by the community trust then have investment by two very wealthy fans.

 

[spireite]

Come on now…our first couple of years down there were absolute hell. But once we improved a bit and we got our heads round being non league there were certain things I enjoyed.

If it meant we could get rid of certain w****** out of the club and rebuild, it was worth getting relegated but I’m in no hurry to go there again!

it's harder up here and I don't like it, I preferred it when we won by 2 or 3 every week

 

[ShrimpsMeltdown]

We're crap but we've got a bit of fight in us, but we just have nothing in the final third.

We're reliant on bringing in loans this month and obviously will be the last choice for everyone, but if we find someone with an inch of quality as an attacker, then we've got a chance.

If we're playing with Dackers or Hope upfront after the window closes, then we're done.

 

[LS Bantam]

NL seems quite straightforward as long as you have a top end L2 budget - isn’t that what happens every year?

 

[Si Robin]

National League is easy - you just need everyone pulling in the same direction, and someone with a bit of nous.

We went straight back up by signing National League stalwarts and young players with a point to prove. The players from that team are all still good mates now because the attitude in the dressing room was second to none. The problem was, when they got promoted and clearly not EFL standard, breaking up the team was extremely hard to do.

Of course, I 100% don't want to go back down there (I've seen Cheltenham play 3 seasons in the Conference/National League, we've come 2nd, 1st and 1st).

 

[EnglishRed]

National League is easy - you just need everyone pulling in the same direction, and someone with a bit of nous.

We went straight back up by signing National League stalwarts and young players with a point to prove. The players from that team are all still good mates now because the attitude in the dressing room was second to none. The problem was, when they got promoted and clearly not EFL standard, breaking up the team was extremely hard to do.

Of course, I 100% don't want to go back down there (I've seen Cheltenham play 3 seasons in the Conference/National League, we've come 2nd, 1st and 1st).

It can be, but it's difficulty ebbs and flows depending on who is 'going for it's that season. You get some weak seasons when the title is up for grabs - and id argue that Cheltenham benefitted from one of those seasons (Dover and Braintree both making the POs), although Johnson went about it in a sensible way, and others where you have one or two clubs throwing money at the one automatic place.

Because it's a promotion bottleneck there is always the scope for having a good season (90+ points) and still failing to get promotion.

Obviously if you aren't a basket case for over a decade the chances you will eventually get up are much better.