2025 relegation dogfight thread

[denzel ecfc]

I reckon wins for Posh and Shrews (or a point) on Saturday and it's done and dusted. A Cambridge win would be funny though

 

[Throbber_for_Dunk]

Funny? It's all we've got left this season!

 

[thewwfc]

Feels like the bottom 3 are gone now, Burton are the lone one you think might still might have had a ghost of a hope, but they have a major bitch of a run-in.

 

[Conker]

Burton do have a couple more wins in them I feel, not saying that will be enough mind.

 

[YEO YEO YEO]

That is a tough run-in for Burton. Shrewsbury needing 5 wins from remaining 9 games just to get out the drop zone without others picking up points. You can see some relegations confirmed in 3-4 games time.

 

[dannylad01]

View attachment 21760

Feels like the bottom 3 are gone now, Burton are the lone one you think might still might have had a ghost of a hope, but they have a major bitch of a run-in.

View attachment 21761

Based on today I can't see Burton staying up. The only hope they have is if Burrell stays fit. Bristol Rovers looked marginally a better team when we got a draw against them a couple of weeks ago

 

[dannylad01]

That is a tough run-in for Burton. Shrewsbury needing 5 wins from remaining 9 games just to get out the drop zone without others picking up points. You can see some relegations confirmed in 3-4 games time.

Especially as our next 2 games are Birmingham and Wycombe both away

 

[Throbber_for_Dunk]

Big ask for Burton but maintain their form and it's not impossible. Think they're top 8 since they appointed a manager.

We talk about not sacking Monk sooner, as if it would have solved owt, but if they take it to the last day and go down they'll be fuming.

As for the other 2 down here? See you next year!

 

[Conker]

Yeah they are 8th since the New year, got to give Bowyer some real credit for that.

 

[Stocky]

At some point these bottom teams who are on a decent run, get enthused, get a few results and look at the table and think "fuck, we're still absolutely nowhere near it" It's like running up a massive road up hill, you're doing well but it never feels like the end is getting closer and with that a lot of your motivation depletes. That's the current bottom four and only Burton are yet to hit that point but I think it will come and the current bottom four will go.

 

[thewwfc]

Good rant from Harris, would far rather hear that than the “we pick ourselves up and go again next week, and will believe till the end” platitudes that most managers in this situation come out with.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1900965317901165051

 

[Casey]

Nice guy, Rob Elliot, said he was angry with his players after they let in 4 goals in the first 30 minutes. Imagine spending your own money and time travelling bloody miles then watching that.

Not quite sure why he is angry. The club went out and recruited players who are clearly not up to league 1 then it blames them for not being good enough. It's the same as me going to a local cafe and complaining the food is not good enough for a Michelin star. You get what you pay for in this world. We paid very little and got...very little.

Actually, most of the players are not up to National League football on the evidence of those first 30 minutes.

Casey

 

[Stocky]

Good rant from Harris, would far rather hear that than the “we pick ourselves up and go again next week, and will believe till the end” platitudes that most managers in this situation come out with.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1900965317901165051

Pandering to the fans after losing a derby. Managers who put everything down to "heart and desire" all the time are a massive red flag.

Has Neil Harris ever done anything anywhere as a manager apart from walk out all the time either when a) a better offer has come along or b) the going has got too tough for him

 

[Throbber_for_Dunk]

He talks more about lack of quality and the like than heart and desire, but yeah. It's a decent rant. Think we'll be seeing Barry Corr shuffled on and Livermore in next year.

As for the second part, Gillingham and Millwall in 2 of his last 3 jobs? The one with us in the middle quite notable for being the opposite.

 

[AdamStag]

Think it would be a stretch to say we're out the picture yet, though of course Saturday does massively help, as others have said it would be a miracle if any of the bottom 3 survive - it's basically championship winning form required.

Still reckon 45/46 will be enough.

 

[Conker]

Hopefully we react like we did after our first bad run of form in the first half of the season, although that was different as we got unlucky for pretty much all five games we lost in a row, then we went to Charlton got a draw and won 4 out of 5 over the christmas period without any uplift in performance from those 5 defeats.

Think it's say to say this time we've been shite and deserved pretty much every defeat we've been handed.

 

[AdamStag]

Update -

I think realistically if you're Wigan or above, you're petty much there next season.

The bottom 2 are down in both points but also form and will have league 2 next season - Crawley have thrown themselves a lifeline with a pretty impressive result at Rotherham. if Burton win that game in hand the natives of north Bristol will be getting restless, especially with the GD - Crawley also entertain Peterborough (though in form) whereas Bristol Rovers host Birmingham!

 

[thewwfc]

I note that the Shrewsbury Town takeover deal has apparently fallen through, again perhaps showing indicators as one of the reasons behind Ainsworth’s sudden flight.

Hope they manage to sort something else out and secure the long-term future of the club.

 

[Pedlar]

What will be the magic points number to stay up?

 

[thewwfc]

I think 50 is the general magic number but I feel like 47 would probably see you safe this season, obviously it will depend on how much of a fight Crawley/Burton put in for the next few weeks.

 

[dannylad01]

I note that the Shrewsbury Town takeover deal has apparently fallen through, again perhaps showing indicators as one of the reasons behind Ainsworth’s sudden flight.

Hope they manage to sort something else out and secure the long-term future of the club.

That's bound to be one of the indicators. Not covered himself with glory with the fanbase given all the promises of staying even if there was no takeover

 

[denzel ecfc]

I think 50 is the general magic number but I feel like 47 would probably see you safe this season, obviously it will depend on how much of a fight Crawley/Burton put in for the next few weeks.

Hopefully 48 is already sufficient. Though we still have Burton, Crawley and Rovers left to play, so a big say in the race.

 

[BRFC_Gas]

Hopefully 48 is already sufficient. Though we still have Burton, Crawley and Rovers left to play, so a big say in the race.

Roll over for us and help keep a local game next season?

 

[HutchECFC]

5 of our last 7 are against teams below us, so as Denzel said, we can still have a say in it

 

[Throbber_for_Dunk]

Must feel nice all you lot you having a say in it....

 

[AdamStag]

I thought on Saturday we were out of it, but after losing a tight game against Charlton and Burton winning all of a sudden it's back to the drawing board. Mansfield and Exeter probably need 1 more win, though basically have another point on the board due to favourable GD.

Burton have managed 14 from the last 10 so over 7 games would get them another 10 points - so 49.
Bristol R have managed 7 from the last 10 so over 6 games would get them another 4 points - so 46
Northampton managed 10 from the last 10 so over 6 gamers would get them another 6 points - so 49

With Bolton, Wrexham and in-from Blackpool away it'll probably be the home games against Exeter and Stevenage where they'd be looking for the points.

 

[denzel ecfc]

I thought on Saturday we were out of it, but after losing a tight game against Charlton and Burton winning all of a sudden it's back to the drawing board. Mansfield and Exeter probably need 1 more win, though basically have another point on the board due to favourable GD.

Burton have managed 14 from the last 10 so over 7 games would get them another 10 points - so 49.
Bristol R have managed 7 from the last 10 so over 6 games would get them another 4 points - so 46
Northampton managed 10 from the last 10 so over 6 gamers would get them another 6 points - so 49

With Bolton, Wrexham and in-from Blackpool away it'll probably be the home games against Exeter and Stevenage where they'd be looking for the points.

You and I are safe by my reckoning.
Burton have some horrific games ahead - Wrexham, Birmingham, Charlton and Huddersfield, so need maximum points in the other three plus a point or two in the above to get out of it.

 

[LordJord]

Feels like we should have enough of a cushion though although still not guaranteed at all. Seems like its likely to be one of Burton or Brizzle Rovers.

 

[AdamStag]

Feels like we should have enough of a cushion though although still not guaranteed at all. Seems like its likely to be one of Burton or Brizzle Rovers.

You'd think realistically, though Wigan still need a win (though they've games in hand).

With home games against Orient, Peterborough and Exeter (also Reading but they're on great form) we should get the 2/3 points we need to get over the line.

 

[Throbber_for_Dunk]

You needn't worry at this stage, unless they bring in points deductions for moral torpitude in the next few weeks.