Athletic Article: League One and Two Seasons to be abandoned next week

[Indian Dan]

So you’d be happy that even though Cheltenham have played a game less than Exeter that shouldn’t be taken into consideration.

What if the outcome was only the top 3 go up so yourselves and Cheltenham both miss out?

 

[Boletus Edulis]

I'd be happy with the season being void - I'm against PPG more than anything as it's the least fair and logical. Second to that is finishing as they are now - Also not fair but at least its done on games played rather than guessing future results.

Option 1 - simply is not going to happen as TNO explained. We all stay in league 2. Option 2 you stay in league 2. Option 3 you get promoted. We’re back to Kahnemann.

 

[TrinidadsNumberOne]

I'd be happy with the season being void - I'm against PPG more than anything as it's the least fair and logical. Second to that is finishing as they are now - Also not fair but at least its done on games played rather than guessing future results.

Every fan should be in favour of finishing the season to a full conclusion. But we've now been told it's no longer possible. Now we have to find the least unfairest proposal whilst also finding the least financially devastating solution too.

And that is why null and void won't happen, not just because it rewards also-rans, the mediocre and the significant losers. But because it'll also financially cripple the also-rans, the mediocre and the significant losers along with those who were set to be promoted too...

 

[kieran_vale]

I think the way they are rumoured to be doing it on ppg is probably making the best of a bad situation. With clubs already releasing players etc restarting the season is just not feasible.

It’s a shame as would loved to have seen how it would have played out with us looking to try and get into the playoffs but would rather just write this one off from our perspective and look to next season if indeed that kicks off on time.

 

[The Terminator]

According to the telegraph, the vote will take place on Tuesday:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/footbal...two-clubs-hope-season-abandonment-will-serve/

 

[Devon_Lad]

Every fan should be in favour of finishing the season to a full conclusion. But we've now been told it's no longer possible. Now we have to find the least unfairest proposal whilst also finding the least financially devastating solution too.

And that is why null and void won't happen, not just because it rewards also-rans, the mediocre and the significant losers. But because it'll also financially cripple the also-rans, the mediocre and the significant losers along with those who were set to be promoted too...

How can I be in favour of finishing the season when it cant be done?

Voiding a season doesn't reward failure as nobody has been relegated yet! Your argument doesn't sit. Currently a team placed 15th in our league can still get promoted.

We were bottom mid season a few years ago and then made it to Wembley (albeit lost)

The ridiculous argument that current positions are meaningful is laughable. No position is confirmed until the season is complete or mathematically confirmed. As nobody in the EFL or PL has any confirmed positions it should be voided.

 

[Indian Dan]

According to the telegraph, the vote will take place on Tuesday:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/footbal...two-clubs-hope-season-abandonment-will-serve/

But does anybody actually know what they are voting on? Is it just to confirm no more games will be played this season or is it also on the method used to sort it out.

 

[valefan16]

I think the only even slightly fair way of doing it is based on probability... for example

PPG gets the final positions but doesn’t take into account form/run ins so for example

Top 4 and bottom 4 (3) in L1 and matched up which works out as:

Swindon - Bury
Crewe - Bolton
Plymouth - Southend
Cheltenham - Tranmere.

You then look at likely outcomes so Swindon obviously go up as Bury went bust.

Are Crewe more likely to go up than Bolton go down (yes due to Bolton’s huge deficit on safety)

Plymouth over Southend is the same.

However Tranmere and Cheltenham there is no clear likelihood over the other so status quo must be kept, Cheltenham haven’t done enough to go up nor Tranmere been bad enough to go down.

It doesn’t account for the league positions but avoids unfair relegations which would be the main cause for outrage.

If you can’t null and void you’ve got to have some fairness as no promoted side can say they’ve yet earnt it but only go up if the side they’d be replacing looks to be in a doomed situation.

 

[TrinidadsNumberOne]

How can I be in favour of finishing the season when it cant be done?

I literally just said that.

 

[Devon_Lad]

I literally just said that.

Exactly but you pulled me up on saying my preferred option is voiding saying everyone's should be finishing it.

 

[Laker]

The current proposals are ridiculous, considering when we were on the same amount of games as Cheltenham are on now (36) our ppg were better than theirs, by them playing a game less than us they are by default getting promoted. And people say that's fair..

Yep, spot on. You can’t cut the league after 36 games for one team and 37 for another when the one playing 37 was ahead of the one on 36 when it reached that number of games. Talk about fairness from those trying to ram this home is bollocks when they don’t consider the unfairness of their proposal.

 

[Laker]

I feel I should contact Nobel prize winner Daniel Kahnemann and offer this board as an experiment proving his theory of unconscious bias. The vast majority of comments, including my own, reflect the self-interest of the team the poster supports.

Maybe the opinion of every club with an axe to grind should be ignored as those of us in mid table mediocrity are the only ones with an unbiased view of the situation.....

 

[Indian Dan]

I think the only even slightly fair way of doing it is based on probability... for example

PPG gets the final positions but doesn’t take into account form/run ins so for example

Top 4 and bottom 4 (3) in L1 and matched up which works out as:

Swindon - Bury
Crewe - Bolton
Plymouth - Southend
Cheltenham - Tranmere.

You then look at likely outcomes so Swindon obviously go up as Bury went bust.

Are Crewe more likely to go up than Bolton go down (yes due to Bolton’s huge deficit on safety)

Plymouth over Southend is the same.

However Tranmere and Cheltenham there is no clear likelihood over the other so status quo must be kept, Cheltenham haven’t done enough to go up nor Tranmere been bad enough to go down.

It doesn’t account for the league positions but avoids unfair relegations which would be the main cause for outrage.

If you can’t null and void you’ve got to have some fairness as no promoted side can say they’ve yet earnt it but only go up if the side they’d be replacing looks to be in a doomed situation.

I’d agree with that except I take it that the 3 clubs now in the auto positions replace those 3 now in relegation spots in L1 and that the 4th team promoted from L2 is the one that replaces Bury.

But I can see your logic there. But can the EFL arbitrarily deduct a promotion place from L2.

 

[TrinidadsNumberOne]

I think the only even slightly fair way of doing it is based on probability... for example

PPG gets the final positions but doesn’t take into account form/run ins so for example

Top 4 and bottom 4 (3) in L1 and matched up which works out as:

Swindon - Bury
Crewe - Bolton
Plymouth - Southend
Cheltenham - Tranmere.

You then look at likely outcomes so Swindon obviously go up as Bury went bust.

Are Crewe more likely to go up than Bolton go down (yes due to Bolton’s huge deficit on safety)

Plymouth over Southend is the same.

However Tranmere and Cheltenham there is no clear likelihood over the other so status quo must be kept, Cheltenham haven’t done enough to go up nor Tranmere been bad enough to go down.

It doesn’t account for the league positions but avoids unfair relegations which would be the main cause for outrage.

If you can’t null and void you’ve got to have some fairness as no promoted side can say they’ve yet earnt it but only go up if the side they’d be replacing looks to be in a doomed situation.

For L1/L2 this would work and I think it's a brilliant, well-reasoned idea.

But the Champ/L1 scenario right now would shoot this down immediately for a variety of reasons. The Championship clubs want the season completed, the EFL wants it to be completed for the sake of the TV deal. But let's assume the Championship is voided. Bolton and Southend in League One are 2-3 weeks from relegation. But Luton were in decent form and Barnsley were winning games whilst the likes of Hull were dropping like a stone. Charlton were also in touching distance of getting out of the bottom 3 too (but their form was so bad I reckon they'd have ended the season bottom). It'd open a can of worms if it was used to resolve that league.

Given the very competitive promotion race in League One as well, you have to think that, with the exception of Coventry, none of those clubs looked a secure bet for automatic promotion let alone a playoff spot.

 

[valefan16]

For L1/L2 this would work and I think it's a brilliant, well-reasoned idea.

But the Champ/L1 scenario right now would shoot this down immediately for a variety of reasons. The Championship clubs want the season completed, the EFL wants it to be completed for the sake of the TV deal. But let's assume the Championship is voided. Bolton and Southend in League One are 2-3 weeks from relegation. But Luton were in decent form and Barnsley were winning games whilst the likes of Hull were dropping like a stone. Charlton were also in touching distance of getting out of the bottom 3 too (but their form was so bad I reckon they'd have ended the season bottom). It'd open a can of worms if it was used to resolve that league.

That league is a mess! If the championship doesn’t finish then it becomes more complex to work that one out as even how your calculating PPG (weighted or not) changes things.

 

[Indian Dan]

Maybe the opinion of every club with an axe to grind should be ignored as those of us in mid table mediocrity are the only ones with an unbiased view of the situation.....

But there are fans of clubs that this doesn’t affect want null and void out of pure spite - not wishing any club to get promoted but rewarding failing shite clubs.

 

[TrinidadsNumberOne]

Exactly but you pulled me up on saying my preferred option is voiding saying everyone's should be finishing it.

I said it from an idealist point of view. That if it was possible we should all want the season to be concluded. But then I said that option was no longer possible.

Voiding is the worst possible option for all clubs given the financial risks and courtroom battles between leagues and broadcasters it brings. Risks which will see many face oblivion.

 

[The Terminator]

But does anybody actually know what they are voting on? Is it just to confirm no more games will be played this season or is it also on the method used to sort it out.

Looks like they've had various meetings last week and they probably know what they're voting on. What that is for sure, we'll find out next week I assume.

Which is why Gary Neville said on Sky he was 99% sure that there won't be anymore games played this season, clearly the overiding opinion of club owners is that they don't want to continue due to the costs involved which to me anyway, isn't a major suprise.

Apparently its costing the Premier League and Bundesliga around £4million each to conduct all the private tests for players and staff etc regularly. So you're looking at around £12million for the EFL at around £4million per league - Where in all honesty if this is the case, is the EFL going to find the funding to do that? Then you have to potentially pay players beyond their contracts which is more money, if this runs beyond July.

Who wants to start a just giving page?! If we all chip in a tenner..............

 

[TrinidadsNumberOne]

But there are fans of clubs that this doesn’t affect want null and void out of pure spite - not wishing any club to get promoted but rewarding failing shite clubs.

The only three clubs in the entire country that null and void would benefit right now are the three that would've been relegated from the Premier League. And what they fail to realise is that in the long run, a bad season in the next 2 years would cripple them even harder than taking relegation with a chance of going back up with parachute payments at the level they're currently at would now.

 

[T.A]

Very much enjoying this bickering between teams. Most of you should be weary of being alive when football does restart again, rather than worry about promotion/relegation. Looking forward to when the vote happens and you all take legal action against the corrupt EFL.

 

[Laker]

But there are fans of clubs that this doesn’t affect want null and void out of pure spite - not wishing any club to get promoted but rewarding failing shite clubs.

Not as a majority. Most of us couldn’t give a shit who we play, we just want to see it done fairly with both sides taken into account, not one which basically says let’s relegate a side by saying “tough shit” and replacing them with a side who haven’t even got close to clinching promotion.

 

[Devon_Lad]

I dont buy your financial risk argument and the percentages are miles off. The PL will finish behind closed doors, and on tv so the money will stand. The very limited money from EFL games will be refunded back to TV companies regardless if its voided or finished on ppg. No previously broadcasted games will be, otherwise it opens up a legal challenge against sky and bt from every customer which they wouldn't want either financially or PR wise.

If the season is not complete and nobody has a confirmed position, given everyone has played a completely different set of fixtures then it should of course be VOID. It is incomplete with no conclusion.

 

[TrinidadsNumberOne]

Very much enjoying this bickering between teams. Most of you should be weary of being alive when football does restart again, rather than worry about promotion/relegation. Looking forward to when the vote happens and you all take legal action against the corrupt EFL.

Aye without sounding insensitive to your situation here Bury set a precedent that clubs spending unsustainable amounts of money will be the first to be exposed and die should a heavy loss of income be sustained to the point where the club can no longer function financially.

 

[Devon_Lad]

Voiding also has the massive financial benefit of not giving out money to promotion sides, no parachute money from PL and also will be saving on FA Cup winner and runner up etc

Financially probably better voiding than ppg and prize money. Either way tv companies will be refunded without the actual games.

 

[Indian Dan]

As far as I know there is no prize money given to EFL clubs who get promoted - or even win their respective league.

One thing is for sure, though. Any club with a modicum of money when the next season starts should piss their league - the vast majority of those who manage to survive will be skint.

 

[TrinidadsNumberOne]

I dont buy your financial risk argument and the percentages are miles off. The PL will finish behind closed doors, and on tv so the money will stand. The very limited money from EFL games will be refunded back to TV companies regardless if its voided or finished on ppg. No previously broadcasted games will be, otherwise it opens up a legal challenge against sky and bt from every customer which they wouldn't want either financially or PR wise.

If the season is not complete and nobody has a confirmed position, given everyone has played a completely different set of fixtures then it should of course be VOID. It is incomplete with no conclusion.

Here's a scenario. Brighton are in a position right now where they stay up on PPG or a void season. They've won 0 games in 2020. If the season restarted, it's highly likely that they'll go down on current form. They want no relegation if the season restarts so they can get another year of PL income. But they won't get that at all as the PL/EFL/FA have all said that's not possible. So they'd probably be in favour of the season being voided. A void season would cost them less than being relegated in the immediate short term, but in the long term it could cost them more depending on their future on-field performance and the future value of TV rights deals which will be renegotiated in the result of a voided season. Short term gain can easily become long term excruciating pain.

The percentages aren't miles off. There's 25% of the PL season remaining. There's 20% of the EFL season remaining. So that's how much in rebates will be paid before penalty clauses. And it's a staggering amount. No league has pandemic insurance either so they've not got any hope of protecting all income paid to them. A voided season would cause an immediate renegotiation in future broadcasting deals. A PPG season would be deemed as a completed season (whether you agree or disagree that it should) as the season hasn't been expunged and, yes there's a likelihood that broadcasters will want some money back if the PL and EFL season can't be concluded, but PPG would protect the TV deals for the next 2 years (PL/EFL Solidarity payments) and 4 years (EFL TV deal) unlike a void season. So the following years of a full TV deal would cover the loss of income caused by a PPG season if clubs cut their cloth accordingly. But the deals would be substantially reduced if you got your wish and the season would be voided.

I'm not saying PPG is perfect, costs will be incurred even if they go down that route, but over a long-term period, they'd be significantly less than voiding a season would cause.

Immediate loss of parachute money in the result of a void season would put the future of six Championship football clubs at grave risk. As much as I hate Stoke, I wouldn't want them to be crippled as a result of that. You'd be giving that PL promotion money to the bottom three, but the voided and renegotiated deal would mean they'd get less. And the prize money from FA Cup is chicken feed compared to the vast losses the English game faces should the league be voided at once.

You haven't presented anything to back up that a void season would benefit clubs. You're just hoping broadcasters can't charge clubs for not showing a significant portion of the season, which brings me to a point I've originally raised.

If you had an extension done on your house and you paid 100% of the money up front but only 75-80% of the work was undertaken. You'd want a refund, wouldn't you? That's the situation broadcasters are in now...

 

[TrinidadsNumberOne]

As far as I know there is no prize money given to EFL clubs who get promoted - or even win their respective league.

One thing is for sure, though. Any club with a modicum of money when the next season starts should piss their league - the vast majority of those who manage to survive will be skint.

Andy Holt said Accrington received a £50,000 bonus for winning League 2 in 2018. Chicken feed compared to the losses we're all about to incur, especially if the void brigade got their way and doomsday hit us all. I think the same amount is given to the the other two EFL division winners as well as a long-standing historical bonus agreement.

 

[Boletus Edulis]

One thing is for sure, though. Any club with a modicum of money when the next season starts should piss their league - the vast majority of those who manage to survive will be skint.

Unless of course it is Mansfield.

 

[Indian Dan]

No owner is going to endlessly fund a club into oblivion

 

[Devon_Lad]

Option 1 - simply is not going to happen as TNO explained. We all stay in league 2. Option 2 you stay in league 2. Option 3 you get promoted. We’re back to Kahnemann.

He hasn't explained it at all. He gave a bogus argument with weird figures to fit his agenda and concluded the PL will also be null and voided - when it'll be completed behind closed doors. The only way the EFL will survive legal scrutiny is to void it. Any other way they're done for. Ppg wouldn't stand a chance in court as it's not written in the charter. What happens when it gets overturned in court? What are your suggestions then?