shoddycollins
Well-Known Member
- Joined
- Jan 17, 2015
- Messages
- 11,512
- Reaction score
- 3,578
- Points
- 113
- Location
- In the managerless wonderland
- Supports
- Carlisle United
Posting this up now... bit early for a match thread but there is a possibility worth discussing, unlikely yet far from impossible.
This is the situation at the bottom of the league with 5 games remaining. (instead of points totals, I've just put each club's distance from the top of the relegation zone)
York 6
Mansfield 6
Carlisle 3
Hartlepool 1
------------------------
Tranmere 0
Cheltenham -2
So at the moment Carlisle are 3 points ahead of Tranmere and Hartlepool are 1 point ahead. Carlisle and Tranmere have been 3 points apart for a little while now, they're both equally shit, so it's entirely possible they'll still be 3 points apart with 1 game to play.
Hartlepool gained a lot of momentum to get out of the relegation zone. They maybe don't have the same momentum now their task is staying out of the relegation zone but you'd think if any of those teams is going to gain some points on the others then it's Hartlepool.
Let's say Hartlepool gain a couple of points on Tranmere and Carlisle, so either they win when the others only manage a draw, or they draw a couple of games where the others lost, but otherwise have similar results. Say Cheltenham haven't closed that gap to Tranmere, that means they're down already, and if York and Mansfield are still more than 3 points clear then they're safe by this point too, which means we could have a last day looking like this.
Carlisle 3
Hartlepool 3
------------------------
Tranmere 0
You can see what I'm getting at here. Carlisle and Hartlepool play each other and a draw will see them both safe and relegate Tranmere. If Tranmere still have the better goal-difference by this point then they shoud in theory be in with a chance of survival, all they need is to beat Bury and hope Carlisle and Hartlepool don't draw.
Of course if the two teams colluded together to arrange a draw (happened in a world cup group stage once and caused a huge scandal) then there would be grounds for the FL to take disciplinary action, but it's unlikely any sort of collusion would be required. Both teams would know the situation, they'd both be playing for a draw and they'd both know that trying to score would be risky as it might encourage the other team to try and score too. Could be a very cagey affair, and a highly unusual atmosphere and the fans pray for their teams to just not try anything risky.
Would this be unfair on Tranmere? I don't know. If no actual match-fixing takes place then both teams are entitled to play for a draw, nobody's cheating or being dishonest. Both teams will be setting their stalls out not to concede and you can't prevent the players from behaving differently due to the knowledge that as long as nobody tries to score a goal, everyone's alright. Arguably Tranmere would only have themselves to blame for letting it come to this, and though their fans would have every right to feel aggrieved, and it would undoubtedly cause a sensation, at the end of the day it is what it is, self-preservation rules.
It's unlikely but as I say, not inconceivable that the league could end like this. As for York an Mansfield; York don't look like being involved on the final day, Mansfield could potentially be, and would be interesting if they were also 3 points above Tranmere, reducing the relegation battle to a two-way between Mansfield and Tranmere (Tranmere again having the goal-difference advantage) but that would require all three clubs to win an extra game each while Mansfield continue to lose, so it's less likely.
A similar scenario would be if Carlisle, Hartlepool and Tranmere were all on the same points going into the last day. If Bury start to thrash Tranmere, then Carlisle and Hartlepool will be back in a situation where, assuming Tranmere have no way back into their game, a draw will see both survive.
This is the situation at the bottom of the league with 5 games remaining. (instead of points totals, I've just put each club's distance from the top of the relegation zone)
York 6
Mansfield 6
Carlisle 3
Hartlepool 1
------------------------
Tranmere 0
Cheltenham -2
So at the moment Carlisle are 3 points ahead of Tranmere and Hartlepool are 1 point ahead. Carlisle and Tranmere have been 3 points apart for a little while now, they're both equally shit, so it's entirely possible they'll still be 3 points apart with 1 game to play.
Hartlepool gained a lot of momentum to get out of the relegation zone. They maybe don't have the same momentum now their task is staying out of the relegation zone but you'd think if any of those teams is going to gain some points on the others then it's Hartlepool.
Let's say Hartlepool gain a couple of points on Tranmere and Carlisle, so either they win when the others only manage a draw, or they draw a couple of games where the others lost, but otherwise have similar results. Say Cheltenham haven't closed that gap to Tranmere, that means they're down already, and if York and Mansfield are still more than 3 points clear then they're safe by this point too, which means we could have a last day looking like this.
Carlisle 3
Hartlepool 3
------------------------
Tranmere 0
You can see what I'm getting at here. Carlisle and Hartlepool play each other and a draw will see them both safe and relegate Tranmere. If Tranmere still have the better goal-difference by this point then they shoud in theory be in with a chance of survival, all they need is to beat Bury and hope Carlisle and Hartlepool don't draw.
Of course if the two teams colluded together to arrange a draw (happened in a world cup group stage once and caused a huge scandal) then there would be grounds for the FL to take disciplinary action, but it's unlikely any sort of collusion would be required. Both teams would know the situation, they'd both be playing for a draw and they'd both know that trying to score would be risky as it might encourage the other team to try and score too. Could be a very cagey affair, and a highly unusual atmosphere and the fans pray for their teams to just not try anything risky.
Would this be unfair on Tranmere? I don't know. If no actual match-fixing takes place then both teams are entitled to play for a draw, nobody's cheating or being dishonest. Both teams will be setting their stalls out not to concede and you can't prevent the players from behaving differently due to the knowledge that as long as nobody tries to score a goal, everyone's alright. Arguably Tranmere would only have themselves to blame for letting it come to this, and though their fans would have every right to feel aggrieved, and it would undoubtedly cause a sensation, at the end of the day it is what it is, self-preservation rules.
It's unlikely but as I say, not inconceivable that the league could end like this. As for York an Mansfield; York don't look like being involved on the final day, Mansfield could potentially be, and would be interesting if they were also 3 points above Tranmere, reducing the relegation battle to a two-way between Mansfield and Tranmere (Tranmere again having the goal-difference advantage) but that would require all three clubs to win an extra game each while Mansfield continue to lose, so it's less likely.
A similar scenario would be if Carlisle, Hartlepool and Tranmere were all on the same points going into the last day. If Bury start to thrash Tranmere, then Carlisle and Hartlepool will be back in a situation where, assuming Tranmere have no way back into their game, a draw will see both survive.
Wouldn't be a travesty for football as a whole, circle of life and all that. Really all three clubs being talked about on this thread are smaller than Bristol Rovers.
