Easter Games

[hellogregory]

Possession is overrated. It's what you do with it that counts and how you maintain your shape when you don't.

We've often struggled to break teams down this season when we've dominated possession. At the same time looking solid out of possession.

Our worst performance of the season against Mansfield at home we had 62%

We're at our best when we attack with speed, getting the ball forward quickly. Whenever we slow down possession we've often looked pedestrian and lacking creativity.

Some of our best performances of the season;

Grimsby Away: 33%
Doncaster Home: 41%
Tranmere Away: 38%
Salford Away: 37%
Crewe Away: 45%
Crawley Away: 34%

There's quite a few other games where we conceded plenty of possession and won. 3 other impressive wins against Barrow and twice against Hartlepool only saw us share possession.

Using possession as a reason for our lack of wins against the top teams is a lightweight excuse that doesn't hold much water.

I'd say a fairer time to judge our performances against the top teams is after we've played Northampton, Stockport and Salford at home.

I’m just trying to pinpoint why we’re so poor against the top 7 teams, despite being one ourselves. Not giving the ball away cheaply is one of the things we can improve on, we get away with it against the lower teams but maybe we don’t against the top sides? I think Simmo will be looking at it in the summers recruitment, he’s referenced our poor passing on a fair few occasions this season.

If the league table doesn’t lie, we should be as good as these teams around us, but 6 points from a possible 30 says we’re not when it comes to facing off against them. Those numbers are no coincidence. So there must be some reason for it.

And it’s a problem we won’t be able to just brush under the carpet if we do make the playoffs, as much as it would be lovely if the EFL let us play Crawley for a place in the playoff final.

 

[AdamStag]

So are carlisle fans now happy there isn’t going to be a late push for relegation?

 

[hellogregory]

I think we’re safe now

 

[Kendalcufc]

I’m just trying to pinpoint why we’re so poor against the top 7 teams, despite being one ourselves. Not giving the ball away cheaply is one of the things we can improve on, we get away with it against the lower teams but maybe we don’t against the top sides? I think Simmo will be looking at it in the summers recruitment, he’s referenced our poor passing on a fair few occasions this season.

If the league table doesn’t lie, we should be as good as these teams around us, but 6 points from a possible 30 says we’re not when it comes to facing off against them. Those numbers are no coincidence. So there must be some reason for it.

And it’s a problem we won’t be able to just brush under the carpet if we do make the playoffs, as much as it would be lovely if the EFL let us play Crawley for a place in the playoff final.

I see where you're coming from and I do agree with you to a point. It would help to take the sting out of certain games when under pressure.

I'm of the view that possession percentages are vastly overrated. I'm more interested in how the ball is used rather than how many times we can knock it around on the halfway line or banging against brick walls 20 yards out because the opposition have got themselves in line.

If we could find a younger equivalent of Jamie Devitt then I'd be all for keeping hold of the ball for longer. He's got the patience and killer passes. If not then I'd rather stick to our percentage football.

 

[Chief Rocka]

Stevenage at home tomorrow, definitely having themselves a mini wobble at the top end and not to be taken lightly but confidence is sky high here and we should be going for all three points.

Haway Barra/Crewe/Orient

 

[Marbles]

Orient for us and to be honest I think well get battered.

 

[BarraMatt]

We will get 0-0ed.

 

[Son of Cod]

The Fishy in absolute meltdown, some proper doyles on there like.

I've caught up on this and you're absolutely bang on, it's embarrassing. Please don't judge us all based off that.

 

[Chief Rocka]

I've caught up on this and you're absolutely bang on, it's embarrassing. Please don't judge us all based off that.

Youse had a short turn around in the summer cos of the late playoffs which resulted in a much smaller summer transfer window (same as us in our first season back), have got to the QF's of the cup which for many will be a once in a lifetime occasion and maintained your league status comfortably in your first season back, personally I'd class that as a good to decent first season back in league footy, mad to read about fans giving staff and players abuse, although far from good V us I think I could cut them some slack.

 

[Kauto Star]

It was an absolutely awful decision from an assistant referee who made countless other awful decisions during the game. Clearly he is nowhere near up to L2 standard. In fact, he would be useless in the local Sunday league.

Having said that, we deserved our win and played much better than a strangely out of sorts Walsall team.

They will point to that decision, plus their disallowed goal a minute beforehand ( I thought there was a foul at the far post rather than an offside) but in all honesty, we have had several really bad decisions go against us earlier in the season, plus one or two in our favour.

Ultimately, we shouldn't be a cert for the drop but a combination of poor Boardroom decisions plus poor Management by firstly Stockdale and latterly Bentley looks like any last gasp revival will be too little too late.

I hope you win every game, except next weekend of course, to stay up

 

[BarraMatt]

Youse had a short turn around in the summer cos of the late playoffs which resulted in a much smaller summer transfer window (same as us in our first season back), have got to the QF's of the cup which for many will be a once in a lifetime occasion and maintained your league status comfortably in your first season back, personally I'd class that as a good to decent first season back in league footy, mad to read about fans giving staff and players abuse, although far from good V us I think I could cut them some slack.

That's just a minority of football fans summed up, you wonder what they expect sometimes. We had one bloke giving Wild a load of grief at full time on Friday and Wild bit back (he probably just needed ignoring really). We are 9th in the league when we the bookies favourites to go down. It's League Two football at the end of the day, players and managers are at this level for a reason, just because you spent a decent amount on tickets, travel and beer doesn't guarantee you're gonna get a result, because it wasn't for the lack of trying.

 

[BigDaveCUFC]

37% possession for us today.

This is a big reason why we find it impossible to beat teams at the top end of the league. We’re absolute experts in giving the ball straight back to our opponents. Against mid table and bottom end teams, we more often than not find a way of scoring with our limited time on the ball, and don’t come under pressure as much at the other end despite giving them so much possession. But against top sides, they deal with our limited possession and lack of quality, and they use the ball better, putting us under more pressure when we constantly give the ball away.

We never controlled
Possession when we won title with Simpson

It was just we had Kev Gray in defence that soaked up anything thrown at us and meant even under pressure other sides did noting then got the ball forward through Holmes to Hawley and Bridges who frankly didn’t need possession and just p*as took other defences the moment they had the ball.

Levels of Possession means absolute b*gger all it is what you do with the possession you have and how little they do with the possession they have which matters. I still say the big issues for this team currently is they will crack once maybe twice a game when under pressure, that is our issue you don’t expect them to keep a clean sheet vs Northampton or Stockport so pressure is on scoring.

Did you never watch Greg Abbotts side who could pass the ball in own half and probably get 70-80% possession and never get one single shot??

 

[hellogregory]

We never controlled
Possession when we won title with Simpson

It was just we had Kev Gray in defence that soaked up anything thrown at us and meant even under pressure other sides did noting then got the ball forward through Holmes to Hawley and Bridges who frankly didn’t need possession and just p*as took other defences the moment they had the ball.

Levels of Possession means absolute b*gger all it is what you do with the possession you have and how little they do with the possession they have which matters. I still say the big issues for this team currently is they will crack once maybe twice a game when under pressure, that is our issue you don’t expect them to keep a clean sheet vs Northampton or Stockport so pressure is on scoring.

Did you never watch Greg Abbotts side who could pass the ball in own half and probably get 70-80% possession and never get one single shot??

I’m not really on about having tons of possession so I shouldn’t have really quoted our possession stat - very misleading of me..

I’m on about being better with it when we do have the ball. The number of times our players just clip the ball to nowhere frustrates me hugely. Jack Armer is a big culprit of this at times. Tomas Holy more often than not puts it out of play for a throw in.
It’s just giving the ball straight back to the opposition needlessly. So yes I believe you are right, it’s what you do with the possession that matters, which is kind of my point.

You and Kendal have both referenced passing the ball around in our own half or on the half way line going no where in response to me. I’ve never once suggested we do this. I’m simply talking about not giving the ball away so cheaply. We can improve on this.

 

[Casey]

Excuse me for butting into a Carlisle argument but is there a stat for possession in the opponents half or balls successfully played forward?

Much more informative than how many times can your centre half pass to your keeper.

Casey

 

[hellogregory]

I don’t need any stats really, I’m going by what I see, we give the ball away far too cheaply, whether we have 30% or 60% possession.

But we play a lot of percentage balls forward and balls down the channels that a lot of the time get picked up by opposition, so I’d imagine our stats in the opposition half won’t be that high.

 

[Kendalcufc]

I’m not really on about having tons of possession so I shouldn’t have really quoted our possession stat - very misleading of me..

I’m on about being better with it when we do have the ball. The number of times our players just clip the ball to nowhere frustrates me hugely. Jack Armer is a big culprit of this at times. Tomas Holy more often than not puts it out of play for a throw in.
It’s just giving the ball straight back to the opposition needlessly. So yes I believe you are right, it’s what you do with the possession that matters, which is kind of my point.

You and Kendal have both referenced passing the ball around in our own half or on the half way line going no where in response to me. I’ve never once suggested we do this. I’m simply talking about not giving the ball away so cheaply. We can improve on this.

It was that you quoted our possession percentage like the number was important. The way you've now described it makes more sense.

My argument was that chasing and wanting to meet certain possession percentages is unnecessary.

We most certainly can improve on our retention of the ball. However I don't think we've got the talent to push teams back keeping the ball in the relevant part of the pitch and creating chances through brick walls. McCalmont looks the type that could do it but he's still lacking experience.

I just think that Simpson recognises our deficiencies in that department and asks us to play accordingly. Off the top of my head the Stockport and Northampton defeats came from goals where we conceded possession in midfield and as a result ended up chasing shadows. He no doubt wants to avoid that situation repeating too often.

 

[Moonie]

How many times have we won games this season due to the opposition faffing around with possession football? How many times have we pressed other sides into giving it away in dangerous areas? Those percentage balls - and our ability to pick up second balls - have seen us do enough to be in a promotion place after 40 games. We can play a bit when the time is right, but I'm much happier seeing us hoof it into attacking areas rather than invite unnecessary pressure.

I'll accept that there are times when we're a bit lax in possession, but it's league 2. It's going to happen.

Really enjoying the ride for once this season, in Simmo we trust.

 

[AdamStag]

I’ve got some uneasy feeling about rochdale, though if there’s one manager about who’ll keep them on their feet it’ll be clough.

Need an easy goal.

 

[The Terminator]

I'd expect us to make two or three changes. Charlie Kelman will almost certainly come back in, I'd imagine Jordan Brown will come in for Darren Pratkey at least too.

Harrogate I've always found to be a strange team to watch, a bit too gung ho - some very good attacking players but love to leave themselves open at the back.

Two games in quick succession, usually means the second games performance levels can drop, I doubt we'll be as good as we was on Friday and I'd imagine Harrogate will have a go at us rather than sit off us.

Sell out crowd again with Home fans being put in the away end and Harrogates fans being moved to the front of the usual away end.

We need 7 points to go up as it stands.

 

[F!RTHY]

I’ve got some uneasy feeling about rochdale, though if there’s one manager about who’ll keep them on their feet it’ll be clough.

Need an easy goal.

Dreading our game against them next weekend. 3,500 travelling contingent, we haven’t lost in ages, they’re fucking shite and they’ve already turned us over at home.

Lump on Dale - absolute banker!

 

[hellogregory]

How many times have we won games this season due to the opposition faffing around with possession football? How many times have we pressed other sides into giving it away in dangerous areas? Those percentage balls - and our ability to pick up second balls - have seen us do enough to be in a promotion place after 40 games. We can play a bit when the time is right, but I'm much happier seeing us hoof it into attacking areas rather than invite unnecessary pressure.

This is actually a good point. A lot of our goals do come from opposition fuck ups after us forcing a mistake.

This could also be another factor in why we beat the bottom and mid teams but don’t know what to do to beat the top teams. The top teams are perhaps less error prone. Maybe we don’t have the quality and creativity to hurt teams that don’t make the errors we try to force.

But for what it’s worth, my original point wasn’t suggesting we should start pissing about with the ball at the back. It’s not black and white, there can be an inbetween. Not fucking about passing it around in triangles in our own third, but also not clipping as many aimless balls into no where when there is no need.

 

[F!RTHY]

Moving on to tomorrows fixture - Sutton United at home!

Matt Platt saw red on Friday so we’ll be without him. Rumours suggest Romoney Critchlow is also injured. If this is the case, we’ve got Cieran Kelly to step in. I haven’t really seen enough of him to confirm whether he’s a solid enough replacement. However, when he has come on (admittedly late-on in games), he seems alright.

Luckily for him, he’ll be partnering Sam Stubbs - who is too good for this league.

Said it in my pre-match Crawley post and I’ll say it again. Hope Hughes doesn’t isolate Cook again with a 4231 - that he did.

4312 please you Welsh wizard!

GK: Harry Lewis

RB: Brad Halliday
CB: Cieran Kelly
CB: Sam Stubbs
LB: Liam Ridehalgh

CM: Ritchie Smallwood
CM: Ryan East
CM: Alex Gilliead

AM: Jamie Walker

ST: Andy Cook
ST: Matt Derbyshire

Must win game - simple as that. Lose and our every-slimming chances of autos is over.

3-0 City

 

[LS Bantam]

There’s a graph that the more shit you are the less chance we have of winning, this graph peaks at around Stevenage after having being thoroughly pumped by the top 2. Sutton sitting just outside the PO’s therefore gives us half a chance of actually doing something, should Critchlow play, a win. If not, and he is out long term, chances of a win tomorrow and any sort of success this season takes a potentially lethal hit.

 

[Boz]

Hapless Rovers v Out of form Swindon. Away win, don't know why I'm bothering going.

Can't wait for the season to end, but some of the rumblings around the club suggest the next one will be even worse...

 

[Ainsty]

Safe journey everyone travelling today.

 

[EricSabin]

Gills at home. Their revival has been built on their home form, and they’ve been rubbish away from home. Be interesting to see how we set up, haven’t got a clue what Brady will do but this feels like a huge game for our autos prospects.

 

[AdamStag]

Gills at home. Their revival has been built on their home form, and they’ve been rubbish away from home. Be interesting to see how we set up, haven’t got a clue what Brady will do but this feels like a huge game for our autos prospects.

They posed us few problems in our 2-0 home win over them a month or so ago, you should be fine.

 

[Gills4years]

They posed us few problems in our 2-0 home win over them a month or so ago, you should be fine.

Definitely true. We have no pace in team, even with our acquisitions, so we will not be able to hit you on the break. I think our stats are about 4 shots over the last 4 away games.

I think we are just about safe and you could deny the loathsome Evans an automatic spot, so I could see a bright side in a narrow defeat.

 

[Soup Ladle]

Steves at home for us, massive bogey side (have we ever beaten them?) but they're not in great form and to be fair they borderline cheated their way to an undeserved home win in the reverse game so I've been waiting a while for us to smash them. Doubt we'll do that but they won't get an easy game. Quite an important match for both sides, quietly confident we will finally do them today but wouldn't be surprised if they shithoused a result in traditional Stevenage mould either.

 

[Salvador]

I’ve got some uneasy feeling about rochdale, though if there’s one manager about who’ll keep them on their feet it’ll be clough.

Need an easy goal.

Given how both teams did on friday it wouldn't be too surprising to see another high scoring game.
Not sure we'll come out on top if we go gung ho and just go for goal. We still look prone to dodgy decision making at the back.
I've changed my mind about a drab loss by 1 but I still reckon we lose this and something silly like 6-3.