Elections on 5 May

[AFCB_Mark]

Looking at results so far, it seems "more of the same". Labour making some gains in England as probably expected, but not as much as they'd like. It's neither disastrous for Corbyn nor a success, doesn't really suit either Labour camp.

The Tory vote seemed fairly stable which is probably better than they might have expected given the internal issues they're having.

Also a few small unexpected twists. Tories gaining a seat in Scotland and becoming the second party of Scotland, also UKIP taking a foothold in the Welsh assembly, which ultimately remains dominated by Labour.

 

[Look Out There Are Llamas]

Khan comfortably in front and will be the next mayor as expected. Sian Berry ahead of Caroline Pidgeon. Believe Green's have also leapfrogged Lib Dems in Scotland.

 

[blade1889]

I see that went well

Yeah I'm not going to switch careers into political predictions any time soon...


...in my defence I did make the rooky error of making comments based in the GE not last LEs

 

[Alty]

The Conservative and Unionist Party isn't in terminal decline after all. Ruth Davidson is a good leader, I think. I wonder if head office might try to tempt her south?

 

[The Paranoid Pineapple]

Are there any websites with something in the way of DECENT RESULTS for these bloody elections? All of the usual culprits seem WOEFUL. I want geeky stuff containing detailed breakdowns by council and reflecting changes from last time round, not just "Cons hold sodding TUNBRIDGE WELLS" (because who would have guessed that).

 

[blade1889]

The bbc have a net gain/loss breakdown...

 

[The Paranoid Pineapple]

UNSATISFACTORY

 

[Look Out There Are Llamas]

Green party have retained my ward, beat Conservatives by 4%. Genuinely wonder if there are any other wards in Essex that are Green.

 

[Tilbury]

Green party have retained my ward, beat Conservatives by 4%. Genuinely wonder if there are any other wards in Essex that are Green.

Doubt there are, tory ukip and some labour everywhere near me with greens not even on the ballot.
Apparently there are. http://www.itv.com/news/anglia/2015-05-08/local-election-results-essex/
Rochford with 2 and Braintree with 1 (presume you're the other).

 

[Captain Scumbag]

The Conservative and Unionist Party isn't in terminal decline after all. Ruth Davidson is a good leader, I think. I wonder if head office might try to tempt her south?

They'd be nuts to do that.

I prefer politics to be more about ideas than identity characteristics, but in that shallow sense Ruth Davidson is absolutely the best person to oppose Nicola Sturgeon. She's Glaswegian. She's female. She's gay. She's relentlessly positive. She takes the piss out of herself for looking like Kim Jong-un.

The SNP and Labour love to tap into that post-Thatcher anti-Tory animus (which still runs very deep) and dismiss the Conservative Party as a bunch of arrogant and humourless middle-aged male snobs (Gerald Warner types, basically) who don't have any relevance in modern Scotland. The Tories couldn't have created a better leader to debunk that myth had they bred someone in a lab for that specific purpose.

 

[Alty]

They'd be nuts to do that.

I prefer politics to be more about ideas than identity characteristics, but in that shallow sense Ruth Davidson is absolutely the best person to oppose Nicola Sturgeon. She's Glaswegian. She's female. She's gay. She's relentlessly positive. She takes the piss out of herself for looking like Kim Jong-un.

The SNP and Labour love to tap into that post-Thatcher anti-Tory animus (which still runs very deep) and dismiss the Conservative Party as a bunch of arrogant and humourless middle-aged male snobs (Gerald Warner types, basically) who don't have any relevance in modern Scotland. The Tories couldn't have created a better leader to debunk that myth had they bred someone in a lab for that specific purpose.

I agree with all of that, but what does it all amount to under FPTP (which the vast majority of Tories are determined to keep)? One seat at Westminster. Is it a good use of her skills?

Perhaps the Tories are genuinely enthusiastic about the Scottish Parliament now. And maybe Davidson is seen as pivotal to saving the Union should Brexit happen. But I could see her as a senior Cabinet Minister.

 

[Look Out There Are Llamas]

Doubt there are, tory ukip and some labour everywhere near me with greens not even on the ballot.
Apparently there are. http://www.itv.com/news/anglia/2015-05-08/local-election-results-essex/
Rochford with 2 and Braintree with 1 (presume you're the other).

Excellent find. Yeah, I'm Epping Forest.

Just noticed that Castle Point's independents are the 'Canvey Island Independent Party'. Superb.

 

[Captain Scumbag]

I agree with all of that, but what does it all amount to under FPTP (which the vast majority of Tories are determined to keep)? One seat at Westminster. Is it a good use of her skills? Perhaps the Tories are genuinely enthusiastic about the Scottish Parliament now. And maybe Davidson is seen as pivotal to saving the Union should Brexit happen. But I could see her as a senior Cabinet Minister.

Your question betrays a common assumption that Holyrood doesn't matter, that's it's small beer, that it's the Vanarama National League to Westminster's Premier League. An understandable assumption in many respects, but it's partly why Scottish Labour is now in such a discredited state. The talented and credible Scottish politicians focused their efforts on Westminster (even post-devolution), which left Scottish Labour in the hands of no marks (Gray and Lamont), veritable halfwits (McConnell) and people who couldn't even do a passable impression of a human being (Wendy Alexander). There was no effective leadership and generally they came across as an incompetent shower of shit. No wonder so many left-minded Scots defected to the SNP.

There's a lesson to be learnt from that. For better or worse, devolution happened and every party has to manage that constitutional settlement as best they can. Hers has been a slow rise (she was elected leader in 2011), but in Davidson the Tories finally have a leader up here who is reasonably well known and not widely despised. And loathe though I am to buy into all this talk about detoxifying brands, it is needed up here and she definitely has both the personality and the identity characteristics required to achieve it. She's also a staunch defender of the Union and, for various other reasons, a good opponent for Sturgeon. Her current role is the best one, if not for her then certainly for her party. IMO that's where she should stay.

Also, her serving in a cabinet position would normally require her to be elected as an MP, which as you acknowledge could be tricky under FPTP. She's now ascended to "big scalp" status, which would make her particularly vulnerable to anti-Tory tactical voting. So why risk it? If she lost, her credibility would be weakened. If she won and was moved into a cabinet position, you'd have to either remove her from where she's needed, or put her in some kind of dual role in which she couldn't possibly give her full attention to Holyrood.

 

[Tilbury]

Excellent find. Yeah, I'm Epping Forest.

Just noticed that Castle Point's independents are the 'Canvey Island Independent Party'. Superb.

I'd be very happy to 'free' them.

 

[The Paranoid Pineapple]

See, this is the kind of nonsense I was after http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-36303157. The resulting maps and stats are definitely one of my favourite things about elections (bloody love me some in-depth ward results). I suppose the London mayoral election is actually a little bit boring on this front because most people see it as a stark choice between the Labour and Conservative candidates and vote accordingly (the other candidates are basically just making up the numbers). Toggling to UKIP, Lib Dem or Green is actually a bit more interesting I think as it gives you an indication as to where those parties are likely to be competitive at a local and national level. Yay for PRETTY MAPS

 

[blade1889]

You were the kid people talk about who plays with the wrapper and not the toys aren't you?