Final League 2 table

[Robie]

These are the final league tables if a) Each team continues the rest of their games in their season long form b) Each team continues the rest of their games in the form of their last 8 games. I have put the last few years points requirements in between them.

Obviously it doesn't take into account teams playing each other and any goal difference issues are decided on current goal difference not future goal difference.

I will keep this updated as time allows.

 

[LordJord]

I think I could just about settle for 110 points!

 

[Grecian O'Grecian]

Us, Luton and Cambridge are in for an absolute roller coaster end to the season either way then.

 

[Habbinalan]

Us, Luton and Cambridge are in for an absolute roller coaster end to the season either way then.

To ease the tension, shall we call it a draw and go down the pub early on Saturday?

 

[BeesKnees]

We could be anywhere between 15th and 15th

 

[Vanni]

Daggers to only get 6 or 9 points more in their remaining games? With John Still in charge? No way.

 

[Flaxman's Alibi]

TENTH OR ELEVENTH?!

I've just had to go out in to the street and yell to all of the neighbours about the upcoming adrenalin fuelled unstoppable train of excitement!

C'mon.

 

[Look Out There Are Llamas]

Daggers to only get 6 or 9 points more in their remaining games? With John Still in charge? No way.

Have you seen how pitiful Dagenham are?

 

[Trapdoor]

That is an unusually low points total.

Your table suggests a bigger gulf in class between top and bottom of L2 than is normal. Not sure I believe that.

 

[Vanni]

Have you seen how pitiful Dagenham are?

Yep, but still, to suggest they won't get another 6/9 points looks to me a bit far fetched I reckon. Not saying they won't go down as they need to do a Hartlepool to stay up, I just think they'll finish on more than 30 points.

 

[Robie]

Updated with today's games. Would be lovely if mods could enable table BB code

 

[Robie]

Yep, but still, to suggest they won't get another 6/9 points looks to me a bit far fetched I reckon. Not saying they won't go down as they need to do a Hartlepool to stay up, I just think they'll finish on more than 30 points.

Yes I guess that will start to fix itself when the teams at the bottom start scrapping for points. York didn't look in any hurry to scrap for points today.
The points for playoffs and automatic seem to be realistic when compared to previous seasons requirements though.

 

[Laker]

If we finish a point outside the play offs, it'd be very frustrating.....

 

[BeesKnees]

Mid table sides will ease off once they know the seasons over

 

[Flaxman's Alibi]

Mid table sides will ease off once they know the seasons over

You know what fella, I've always found it's the opposite; as if the lack of pressure opens up some freedom amongst players who have performed averagely all season.

 

[BeesKnees]

You know what fella, I've always found it's the opposite; as if the lack of pressure opens up some freedom amongst players who have performed averagely all season.

I'm only guessing as it's a very long time since we had this level of safety. Being on the other end I always felt the teams desperate for points pushed themselves that little bit harder while midtable sides seemed more relaxed.

 

[ThisTinpotLeague]

Daggers to only get 6 or 9 points more in their remaining games? With John Still in charge? No way.

To be fair, this table only has value because the OP describes a systematic, unbiased process whilst making no apologies for its limitations.

 

[Flaxman's Alibi]

I'm only guessing as it's a very long time since we had this level of safety. Being on the other end I always felt the teams desperate for points pushed themselves that little bit harder while midtable sides seemed more relaxed.

You could say that, but look at the appalling finishes to the season that Cheltenham, Tranmere and Mansfield all had at the bottom last season. 4 wins between all three in the last 10 games of the season.

 

[Wombling Kiwi]

2013 was an interesting season, low points totals at top of league, but very high at bottom. Must have been a very competitive year with lots very even sides in it. I know we only survived by winning on last day.

 

[Kenneth E End]

Missing out by 1 point - jeez I'd take that right now!

 

[BeesKnees]

You could say that, but look at the appalling finishes to the season that Cheltenham, Tranmere and Mansfield all had at the bottom last season. 4 wins between all three in the last 10 games of the season.

Hard to generalise I guess. I think most of it stems from where a club sees itself in Jan\Feb. Those in deep trouble tend to blow a few quid on expensive loanees, change managers etc (Hatrlepool last year, Northampton the year before). There always seems to be someone who sleepwalks into a relegation battle probably because they did think they were safe and didn't strengthen. It's also relative, last season Hartlepool got 18 points in 12 which in the top half is nothing special but in a relegation fight is massive and that kind of figure happens almost every year. so they must be picking those points up from somewhere, although maybe it's teams at the top having a wobble rather than mid table,

 

[Wombling Kiwi]

[QUOTE="BeesKnees, post: 358146, member: 288 There always seems to be someone who sleepwalks into a relegation battle probably because they did think they were safe and didn't strengthen.

think Bristol Rovers, only spent 15 mins all season in relegation zone.

 

[gashead88]

Yes we only dropped into the drop zone on last game of the season. It was unthinkable after beating Wycombe but luckily we bounced back at first attempt, if we hadn't then I wouldn't like to think what would be going on at the club now.

As the new owners have already said if we were still in the conference they wouldn't of taken us over

 

[Trapdoor]

Maths chat:

Why not use stochastic simulation as well as prior form model? you end up with some gaussian p10 - p50 - p90 models which look quite nice. Could then later apply some performance weightings based on team performance and confidence (performance being a long term weighting and confidence being a short term weighting gradually changing over time similer to a kohenon SOM).

I would do it but I literally cba.

#skynet

 

[Stagat]

Yeah, was gonna ask the same.

 

[Laker]

Yeah, was gonna ask the same.

Stochastic simulations and gaussian models are my favourites.

 

[Robie]

Bless you.

 

[BeesKnees]

Yes we only dropped into the drop zone on last game of the season. It was unthinkable after beating Wycombe but luckily we bounced back at first attempt, if we hadn't then I wouldn't like to think what would be going on at the club now.

As the new owners have already said if we were still in the conference they wouldn't of taken us over

With 12 games to go you were 14th on 42 points, Lincoln did exactly the same .

 

[Robie]

Updated table

 

[Robie]

Updated with last nights games.