General Election 2015

[Alty]

Build-up, predictions, commentary and results.

I'm going to stick my neck out and say it'll be a hung Parliament with Tories as the largest party. Labour to do a bit better than people expect against SNP. UKIP to win a handful including at least one in the North. LDs to be kingmakers by retaining 25-30 seats.

 

[Red]

Thought I'd start this thread as place where we can discuss generic things to do with forthcoming GE. It'll probably get busier as we get nearer the time.

To start though, what do people think about David Cameron's refusal to take part in the televised debates? I think he's put himself in quite a difficult position. If he genuinely is refusing because he thinks the Greens should be represented I'd commend that. However, he's now faced with the choice of backing down which makes him look weak or sticking to his decision and sacrificing a lot of political capital, unless the Greens are allowed in..

 

[SUTSS]

Who will you be voting for and why?

Most recent polling:
ComRes: Con 33, Lab 34, LD 7, UKIP 18, Green 3
Populus: Con 32, Lab 34, LD 9, UKIP 14, Green 6
YouGov: Con 32, Lab 32, LD 6, UKIP 16, Green 8
Ipso Mori: Con 33, Lab 34, LD 8, UKIP 11, Green 8
Lord Ashcroft: Con 34, Lab 28, LD 8, UKIP 16, Green 8

 

[Red]

We must have created our threads almost at the same time. I'm OK if mine is integrated into yours. Good to see you here too.

I also think it will be a hung parliament and the LDs will be kingmakers. In fact it's probably going to be all their role in parliamentary politics will ever amount to for the foreseeable.

 

[Red]

Lulz. 3 of us have a made a GE thread.

I'll be voting Green if they stand in my town. If not then Labour as much as it will pain me. Good to see you here too SUTTS

 

[SUTSS]

Same. All created within a couple of minutes of each other. Need them all merging up.

 

[Pilgrim Meister]

Because he wanted to Greens Involved, he refused to take part, then instructed the TV Companies not to hold any debates. Ofcom then showed their face and said the Greens are classed as a Minor Party, and that UKIP were considered a Main Party

 

[Red]

Ofcom consider UKIP a major party with 2 MPs and The Greens a minor party with 1 MP? That is strange. I didn't know Cameron had instructed the broadcasters, nor had the power to, not hold debates.

 

[SUTSS]

It would be amazing if they empty chaired him.

 

[Pilgrim Meister]

It would be amazing if they empty chaired him.

There is a petition from all Leaders (Milliband, Cleg & Farage) to do exactly that

 

[Gladders]

Interesting debate on this on the daily politics during prime ministers questions last week. They basically thought that Cameron doesn't want the debates to happen at all because they will help Labour more than the Torys and they reckon Cameron would rather have the minor embarrassment of not going on them than them actually going ahead.

Though by the sounds of it there may end up being a digital online debate which will have the Greens involved anyway.

 

[Red]

Regardless of whether or not they put an empty space where Cameron should be I think it will cause considerable damage to the Tories if he doesn't appear because the others will be making references to and assertions about them and they'll not be there to refute etc. If the Greens are not allowed in I'll be very surprised if Cameron doesn't back down.

 

[Stevencc]

I'm voting UKIP. You c***.

Sorry, just filling in for Vancouver Gooner.

 

[Red]

I'm voting UKIP. You c***.

Sorry, just filling in for Vancouver Gooner.

PMSL!

 

[Jarvis]

I'll be voting Lib Dem again. It's very tempting to switch to Green however, and if/when our local Lib Dem MP is done here, I will do.

 

[TheMinsterman]

Right now I am likely voting Green as opposed to the Lib Dems who I've voted for my whole life and will continue to do so until at least Nick Clegg is ousted, though I suppose only a really bad general election will result in that.

 

[Layer Cake]

I'm really looking at The Greens this time round, been Labour all my life.
I really enjoy this part of a forum on the lead up to a GE.

 

[Alty]

Obviously great minds think alike in terms of creating threads! I'm a bit confused as to what's happened with TFF. From what I can gather the Admins had a bit of a meltdown. I dunno. But kudos to whoever has got this one going. It's good to see how many people have migrated already.

Ofcom consider UKIP a major party with 2 MPs and The Greens a minor party with 1 MP? That is strange. I didn't know Cameron had instructed the broadcasters, nor had the power to, not hold debates.

I'm fairly sympathetic to the Greens' case, but I think the distinction is clear. UKIP won the European Elections while the Greens came 4th. They're consistently above the Greens (and the LDs) in the opinion polls. They've won two by-elections in recent times. And I don't think there's a serious commentator who predicts the Greens winning more than 3 seats (and in all honesty I think they'd take two if offered now).

There's no formula that's going to satisfy everyone. I mean, UKIP could make a case for being miffed that they're only in one debate while the tremendously unpopular LDs are in two. But I think what the broadcasters have come up with is at least defensible.

Cameron hiding behind the idea that the Greens deserve a platform when in fact he's chicken is one of the most pathetic things I've seen in a long while.

It would be amazing if they empty chaired him.

This.

 

[Red]

Good to see you here Alty. I think it was just Rich that kicked off on TFF.

I didn't know that UKIP had only been invited to one of the debates. It's difficult in terms of who should be involved. I'm inclined to say that all parties represented in parliament should be involved but then when you chuck in all the nationalist parties and independents it would be too crowded to fit it all into a debate that will probably last an hour.

 

[Alty]

Good to see you here Alty. I think it was just Rich that kicked off on TFF.

I didn't know that UKIP had only been invited to one of the debates. It's difficult in terms of who should be involved. I'm inclined to say that all parties represented in parliament should be involved but then when you chuck in all the nationalist parties and independents it would be too crowded to fit it all into a debate that will probably last an hour.

I don't think the Nats have a leg to stand on. Asking for a platform with the major national leaders when your parties aren't even standing candidates in the vast majority of seats is a bit ridiculous. Then again, these guys are living in dreamland. Nicola Sturgeon thinks that if the SNP get 25 seats they can force the UK Government to abolish trident!

 

[Madejski]

Not totally decided on who to vote for this time round. Haven't given it a lot of thought but time is ticking.

Voted Lib Dems last GE, not going to make the same mistake this time round.

 

[Hooped Wizard]

I'll be voting for the 'kippers.

 

[Red]

I'll be voting for the 'kippers.

What constituency are you in and who usually wins there?

 

[Alty]

Just this minute I've had someone knocking on my door campaigning for Justine Greening.

If she's got people dedicated enough to be traipsing round at 6.30 on Sunday nights four months ahead of election day, I think she's going to hold this seat with ease.

 

[Hooped Wizard]

What constituency are you in and who usually wins there?

Don Valley (we have three different ones in Doncaster, Red Ed is Doncaster North I think) - Caroline Flint of Labour has held our seat since 1997.

These were the 2010 results
LabourCaroline Flint16,472

ConservativeMatt Stephens12,877

Liberal DemocratEdwin Simpson7,422

BNPErwin Toseland2,112

UKIPWilliam Shaw1,904

English DemocratsBernie Aston1,756

IndependentMartin Williams887

UKIP's candidate this time out is Guy Aston who is already having leaflets handed out outlining his plans.

 

[SUTSS]

I've got the interesting prospect of living in a new constituency come Feb so a new set of candidates to look over. Keith Simpson is the MP and he's got a fairly good reputation locally, he hasn't confirmed that he is standing again though and there are plenty of rumours that he will stand down. The Conservatives should still hold the seat relatively comfortably but it is not beyond the realm of possibility of UKIP splitting the vote and Labour stealing it, if Labour can also take votes from the Lib Dems.

 

[Red]

What did you say to them Alty?

Caroline Flint is a bit of a MILF

 

[Hooped Wizard]

What did you say to them Alty?

Caroline Flint is a bit of a MILF

She's also a useless cont.

 

[Alty]

What did you say to them Alty?

Caroline Flint is a bit of a MILF

I politely listened to her opening spiel. She then asked whether I or my partner would vote Tory at the election. I said that in all honesty there was zero chance of me voting Tory and that although I thought my partner was unlikely to either, I'd happily take the leaflet and pass it on. The lady said fair enough and squeezed in one final thing about even if you don't like the Tories Justine Greening is good for the area.

All very civil. I was vaguely impressed someone had actually come to see me. I suppose it's what comes with a constituency that could go either way. Previously I've only lived in safe seats.

 

[Hooped Wizard]

I politely listened to her opening spiel. She then asked whether I or my partner would vote Tory at the election. I said that in all honesty there was zero chance of me voting Tory and that although I thought my partner was unlikely to either, I'd happily take the leaflet and pass it on. The lady said fair enough and squeezed in one final thing about even if you don't like the Tories Justine Greening is good for the area.

All very civil. I was vaguely impressed someone had actually come to see me. I suppose it's what comes with a constituency that could go either way. Previously I've only lived in safe seats.

What is your constituency?