General Election 2019

[Ebeneezer Goode]

Far less to do with the ethnicity of the perpetrators than the contempt of the police and council for young working class girls with so-called "chaotic" lifestyles. That you buy the police's post-hoc excuse of PC gone mad doesn't make it actually true.

It's not a police excuse, it came straight from the mouths of council staff themselves in the independent inquiry that followed. It's certainly true that the police were ignorant and inept, but far from covering it up they were disturbingly open about how they viewed the girls as troubled individuals and prostitutes and not the victims of child rape. Either way, nothing the police did or didn't do can explain away the demographics of this phenomenon.

 

[Millerbri]

It's not a police excuse, it came straight from the mouths of council staff themselves in the independent inquiry that followed. It's certainly true that the police were ignorant and inept, but far from covering it up they were disturbingly open about how they viewed the girls as troubled individuals and prostitutes and not the victims of child rape. Either way, nothing the police did or didn't do can explain away the demographics of this phenomenon.

Unfortunately SY Police dont have a great track record let's be fair.

 

[The Jovial Forester]

It's not a police excuse, it came straight from the mouths of council staff themselves in the independent inquiry that followed. It's certainly true that the police were ignorant and inept, but far from covering it up they were disturbingly open about how they viewed the girls as troubled individuals and prostitutes and not the victims of child rape. Either way, nothing the police did or didn't do can explain away the demographics of this phenomenon.

Again, that's the council staff's excuse for the same attitudes and failings. There clearly is a demographic element to the particular for these grooming gangs take, but it wasn't a fear of being seen as racist that let the victims down - they let other victims of white offenders down too in countless historical cases up and down the country from Kincora on (and no doubt prior).

 

[Modernist]

So what sort of majority do people think Boris will get?

And do people think we can negotiate a trade agreement before the dec 31st 2020?

Personally I think it will be a majority of about 50-60 and I think (although not that confident) we'll end up leaving without a deal.

 

[Millerbri]

Hopefully he gets to dig his ditch and for once keep a promise.

 

[Ebeneezer Goode]

I think if the Tories get a majority then it'll be a slim one and I don't think we'll negotiate a free trade agreement in a year. If the Tories offered the EU an ultimatum on leaving without a deal I think they'd follow through, but I'm not sure it would get that far.

 

[TractorBoys]

It's a tricky one; without the Brexit Party I'd be confident of a reasonably large Tory majority.

Potential roadblocks ahead though as I feel die-hard brexiteers will vote for BP and unintentionally split the vote. If this happens we could be looking at negotiations for a patch up alliance between then two which will lead to further delays. Has Farage stuck to his decision to not contest Tory seats? If so, should be plain sailing.

Hopefully we won't be put through the above and Boris gets a workable majority. If it's a slender one then we should brace ourselves for further delays.

Regardless; we won't be done with economic uncertainty for a good while yet; but we can sleep a little easier knowing Labour a la Corbyn will not be getting anywhere near #10. Can you imagine...

 

[Fompous Part]

You seem to be suggesting something like a confidence-and-supply agreement or forming a coalition government, but that's a non-starter unless the Brexit Party win approx. 5-10 seats. I don’t see them winning one. They are current polling at about 3%.

As I wrote yesterday, Labour is likely to increase its vote share when various Remain folk who would rather vote Lib Dem realise that it's a waste of their vote. To counteract that, the Tories need to gain a bunch of seats in Leave areas that habitually vote Labour. They have a chance because Labour is now a Remain party (there is nothing ‘neutral’ about having a second referendum), but their chances of success are weakened by the Brexit Party standing in those key Labour–Tory marginals.

Farage has done what he agreed to, but that was to stand down his candidates in the seats the Tories won in GE2017. From a Leave perspective, we could do with him standing down his candidates in those key Labour–Tory marginals, too. That's where splitting the Leave vote could prove disastrous.

Of course, it could be argued that such a stand-down would provoke an opposite reaction (i.e. more Remainers switching from the Lib Dems to Labour). And given that the Lib Dem share of the vote is about 4-5 times larger than the Brexit Party’s, the overall effect (from a Leave perspective) might be negative. That’s why this one is so bloody hard to call.

 

[GTFCfish]

I'll never understand why working men vote Tory, but each to their own eh.

When I was in my teens and early 20’s I was so pro Labour that if I knew someone had voted Tory I’d have an instant dislike of them as in my eyes back then anyone voting Tory was just a selfish twat who only cared about their own wealth and fuck everybody else, but as I’ve got older and (slightly) wiser I’ve come to realise that people have many different reasons for voting for a particular party and whether I agree with them or not, I no longer hold peoples political preferences against them.
A guy I worked with for 4 or 5 years who’s left now was a Tory voter yet I got on better with him than anyone else, and his reasons for voting Tory was because of Labours overspending and he felt the Tories would be better to sort out the economy, and whilst I’d never vote Tory myself I could fully understand his point of view and can see now why some people from all different backgrounds might vote for them.
Apologies if this post comes across as a bit patronising by the way as it’s not meant to be.

 

[Millerbri]

When I was in my teens and early 20’s I was so pro Labour that if I knew someone had voted Tory I’d have an instant dislike of them as in my eyes back then anyone voting Tory was just a selfish twat who only cared about their own wealth and fuck everybody else, but as I’ve got older and (slightly) wiser I’ve come to realise that people have many different reasons for voting for a particular party and whether I agree with them or not, I no longer hold peoples political preferences against them.
A guy I worked with for 4 or 5 years who’s left now was a Tory voter yet I got on better with him than anyone else, and his reasons for voting Tory was because of Labours overspending and he felt the Tories would be better to sort out the economy, and whilst I’d never vote Tory myself I could fully understand his point of view and can see now why some people from all different backgrounds might vote for them.
Apologies if this post comes across as a bit patronising by the way as it’s not meant to be.

No it's not patronising at all, I have friends who I'm sure vote Tory.
We tend to talk about football and anything else other than politics.
Good mates are special on a daily basis, elections raise passions for a few weeks then fade into 4 or 5 years of non event thank God.

 

[Laker]

You seem to be suggesting something like a confidence-and-supply agreement or forming a coalition government, but that's a non-starter unless the Brexit Party win approx. 5-10 seats. I don’t see them winning one. They are current polling at about 3%.

As I wrote yesterday, Labour is likely to increase its vote share when various Remain folk who would rather vote Lib Dem realise that it's a waste of their vote. To counteract that, the Tories need to gain a bunch of seats in Leave areas that habitually vote Labour. They have a chance because Labour is now a Remain party (there is nothing ‘neutral’ about having a second referendum), but their chances of success are weakened by the Brexit Party standing in those key Labour–Tory marginals.

Farage has done what he agreed to, but that was to stand down his candidates in the seats the Tories won in GE2017. From a Leave perspective, we could do with him standing down his candidates in those key Labour–Tory marginals, too. That's where splitting the Leave vote could prove disastrous.

Of course, it could be argued that such a stand-down would provoke an opposite reaction (i.e. more Remainers switching from the Lib Dems to Labour). And given that the Lib Dem share of the vote is about 4-5 times larger than the Brexit Party’s, the overall effect (from a Leave perspective) might be negative. That’s why this one is so bloody hard to call.

In the “Labour leave” constituencies in the north, there’s probably more likelihood of the Brexit Party winning them as voting Tory still is a no no. So a reciprocal arrangement for the Tories to stand down in those seats would have been sensible but Boris would never have done it. So he could be blamed for splitting the leave vote tbh - Farage “did his bit”, as it were.

 

[TractorBoys]

Time will tell; but I think its realistic that one or two constituencies in Yorkshire will turn blue, with several of them becoming marginals. It sounds like a stretch, but if it's ever going to happen; then it's going to be in this election.

TB

 

[Millerbri]

 

[DarkSithLord]

Max Gapes

@maximiliangapes
·
6h


I hear Jo Swinson is considering resigning BEFORE THE ELECTION after what senior Lib Dem sources are saying has been ‘a worse campaign than Theresa May’s in 2017’ One senior source said: ‘with this government and opposition we should be getting over a hundred seats’

 

[TractorBoys]

Conversatives pollling a double digit lead now which hasn't moved for the last 3-4 days.

Something is going to have to drastically go wrong if we don't take a reasonable overall majority.

 

[Fompous Part]

In the “Labour leave” constituencies in the north, there’s probably more likelihood of the Brexit Party winning them as voting Tory still is a no no. So a reciprocal arrangement for the Tories to stand down in those seats would have been sensible but Boris would never have done it. So he could be blamed for splitting the leave vote tbh - Farage “did his bit”, as it were.

Many Leave voters I know wanted a more reciprocal arrangement for precisely that reason (I remain undecided). We'll see who was right in a week's time, I guess.

FWIW, I don't think the Brexit Party owes the Tories anything, let alone something for nothing. Nevertheless, the Brexit Party is splitting the Leave vote in at least 8-12 seats that are Labour–Tory marginals, and voting for the Brexit Party in those seats is effectively voting for a pro-Remain coalition that will hold a second referendum (with a cynically extended franchise) that will likely return a Remain result. None of this is very fair, but now is not the time to dwell on that. Leave voters have to play the hand they've been dealt.

I suppose another way to look at this – and I'm drifting in this direction – is that the Tories don't deserve a majority if they can't get this simple point across. On a similar note, they don't deserve to govern if they can't beat an opposition this bad.

 

[Fompous Part]

Conversatives pollling a double digit lead now which hasn't moved for the last 3-4 days. Something is going to have to drastically go wrong if we don't take a reasonable overall majority.

The polls being out by 2-3 points, which is well within the acceptable margin of error given the amount of tactical voting, is all that's needed to put it back in hung parliament territory.

 

[Gassy]

I’m actually at the point of looking forward to the Tories winning this general election. The same fools who voted for Boris will moan why we’re losing parts of the NHS, more cut backs, shortage of public services, businesses leaving the UK and jobs being at risk.

I genuinely am staring to look forward to the point to say, good - you asked for this. Or even better, you deserve this.

 

[TractorBoys]

Perhaps if we had any realistic opposition that wasn't a train crash in terms of both policy and future damage; the Tories wouldn't find themselves in such a position? Corbyn is, by even his own parties admission on regular occasions; both unfit to lead and has put together a lunatics hash of a manifesto and as such is un-electable, not now not ever.

Food for thought. Labour will need to part ways with him and rebuild after the 12th IMO.

 

[Gassy]

Hang on a second, you’re actually trying to say that people voting for Tories is actually Labour’s fault?

The Tories have created the current damage and show more signs of future damage - but let’s point figures at Labour again.

Just remember where we are in 5 years, remember where we are now, highest crime, worst NHS, highest poverty, highest gap in rich ca poor - the list can go on and on tbh.

But hey, it’s Labours fault the propaganda that people will believe is astounding

 

[TractorBoys]

I disagree with the majority of that wall of text. But yes; you can't cry foul if the 'opposition' does such a poor job. The best part of the last decade has been a repair job from the last Labour government. You'd have thought they might have been able to get their house in order in that time; but no.

Enjoy election night x

 

[Gassy]

Ah yeah, the good old global economic crash that Labour did Did you ever read something not published by the Mail or Sun?

I will enjoy it at this point, i’ll happily smile as each Tory voter loses their job and can’t afford healthcare for themselves or children.

Just remember. You asked for it

 

[TractorBoys]

Thick as fuck, no offence.

 

[Gassy]

Says the turkey voting for Christmas

Hey look at that, I’m already smiling.

 

[TractorBoys]

Hey look at that, I’m already smiling.

Have you seen a pretty picture? Special boy.

 

[Fompous Part]

Hang on a second, you’re actually trying to say that people voting for Tories is actually Labour’s fault?

If the last 9 years have been that bad, doesn’t it reflect rather poorly on Labour that they’re polling under 33% and their best chance of ‘success’ is finishing a close enough second to deny the Tories a majority? I mean, since GE2017 the Tories have presided over a 30-month period barely distinguishable from an episode of The Thick of It, yet precisely no one is predicting Labour to win an outright majority. And none of that is their fault? Really?

 

[Gassy]

Have you seen a pretty picture? Special boy.

Now you’re just getting desperate, try harder next time

If the last 9 years have been that bad, doesn’t it reflect rather poorly on Labour that they’re polling under 33% and their best chance of ‘success’ is finishing a close enough second to deny the Tories a majority? I mean, since GE2017 the Tories have presided over a 30-month period barely distinguishable from a particularly farcical episode of The Thick of It, yet precisely no one is predicting Labour to win an outright majority. And none of that is their fault? Really?

Labour should do better, I’m not arguing that. I’m arguing that only a moron would think it’s Labours fault that the Tories have done a bad job for 9 years.

 

[TractorBoys]

Now you’re just getting desperate, try harder next time

More so than Labours campaign? Nah, not possible!

 

[Laker]

Thick as fuck, no offence.

Careful.... Luckily Gassy is mature enough to handle that by the looks of things but personal insults (no offence doesn’t count as a get out) are dangerous territory imo.

 

[Soup Ladle]

Genuinely fear for the country if Boris gets his majority and that goes way beyond Brexit.

If it happens I think I’d be better off staying out here in Saudi.