League One Relegation Thread

[SkyBlueElephant]

We are shit. Our owner sent a PA message round to Darius Henderson who only arrived at half time who due to awful traffic (apparently BBC Stoke didn't even make the ground!) today infront of everyone in the ground "Thanking him for turning up late" we are run by idiots!!!

Maybe they can exchanged tips with our owners.

 

[Bottega Don]

Well, we're down I think.

I can't see us winning another this season.

 

[JJ1532]

52 - NO TEAM RELEGATED WITH THIS TOTAL
51 - Safety 2010, 2013
50 - Safety 2012, 2014
49 - Predicted Safety 2015
48 - Safety 2011 Port Vale(39)
47 -
46 - Walsall(38), Coventry City(39)
45 - Crewe Alexandra(39)
44 - Scunthorpe United(38)
43 - Notts County(38)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
43 - Crawley Town(39)
42 - Leyton Orient(38)
41 -
40 -
39 -
38 - Colchester United(38)
37 -
36 -
35 -
34 -
33 - Yeovil Town(39)

Forthcoming fixtures:

17th Coventry(39) - 46 points. Leyton O(H), Notts C(A), Colchester(H), Oldham(H), Bristol C(A), Crewe(H), Crawley(A)
18th Crewe(39) - 45 points. Crawley(H), Chesterfield(A), Leyton O(H), Peterborough(A), Walsall(H), Coventry(A), Bradford(H)
19th Scunthorpe(38) - 44 points. Peterborough(H), MK Dons(A), Crawley(H), Port Vale(H), Colchester(A), Bradford(H), Gillingham(H), Doncaster(A)
20th Notts County(38) - 43 points. Walsall(A), Coventry(H), Yeovil(A), Barnsley(H), Crawley(A), Preston(H), Doncaster(H), Gillingham(A)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
21st Crawley(39) - 43 points. Crewe(A), Oldham(H), Scunthorpe(A), Walsall(A), Notts C(H), Peterborough(A), Coventry(H)
22nd Leyton Orient(38) - 42 points. Coventry(A), Gillingham(H), Crewe(A), Doncaster(H), MK Dons(A), Rochdale(A), Sheff U(H), Swindon(A)
23rd Colchester(38) - 38 points. Port Vale(A), Barnsley(H), Coventry(A), Chesterfield(A), Scunthorpe(H), Fleetwood(A), Swindon(H), Preston(H)
24th Yeovil(39) - 33 points. Chesterfield(H), Fleetwood(A), Notts C(H), Sheff U(H), Swindon(A), Port Vale(H), MK Dons(A)

Well, Yeovil are down. 10 points adrift with 7 games to go. Even a Hartlepool esq miracle run probably won't save them, especially when you look at their run in. Colchester are also in a tough spot and its starting to look really bleak for them. Probably need 4 points from their next 2 at least and that will only get them back in the hunt. Orient continue to fight, 4 wins in their last 8. The quality they have in their squad means all bets are off with them I think, even looking at their last 4 games. Crawley have some winnable fixtures coming up in the next few weeks, in fact, I'd go as far as to say their run in looks the most favourable of all the relegation battlers. Will count for little if they lose to mid table teams like Gillingham though.

Notts C continue to struggle at home and whilst its stating the obvious, if you can't win your home games, you won't stay up. Got to get a win from one of their next 3 games. Scunny continue to tread water, but are without a win in 9 with 2 tough games to come next. Hard to know what to make of them. They could easily win 1 and get themselves clear of trouble(for a while) or lose both and slip into the bottom 4. The Alex pick up a huge shock win at Sheffield United and have a 6 pointer at home to Crawley next weekend. We could go either way over the next few weeks. Coventry, like Crawley, have a fantastic run in, although they too need to start winning at home.

So, Yeovil down, Colchester on the brink. But then, there is enough to make a case for anyone of the other 6 teams to stay up, plus Walsall and Port Vale who could also get dragged into it. Shaping up to potentially be a thrilling relegation battle.

 

[SkyBlueElephant]

Yeovil are down and in my mind I've already relegated Colchester as well.

Right now I'm edging towards Leyton Orient going down, I think there 5 last fixtures are tough (Doncaster are no mugs either, especially away from the Keepmoat). I'm thinking they need to win 2 of the next 3 to give themselves a decent chance going into the last 5 games.

Then I think at the moment Scunthorpe or Notts County will be the team to join them.

I think you should include Walsall in this table, they are on the same points as us and 3 points off the drop.

 

[RavenBish]

Looking at those fixtures, Colchester and Yeovil are in big trouble and Orient need to win 2 out their next 3 or I think they're done too.

We're more than capable of staying up on paper once we get the likes of JCR, Spencer and McCourt on the same pitch at the same time finally and I'd like to think a new manager will wangle us a couple of wins and paper over a few cracks for a couple of weeks too - but we'll see about that.

Can everyone just beat Crawley over the next few weeks. Thanks.

 

[TrinidadsNumberOne]

I reckon the estimated safety total needs to be raised from 49 points for a start. 52-54 points looks more realistic.

Anyway even if Yeovil win 7 in a row they aren't staying up. Colchester lose their game in hand and you'd like to think they're dropping too. Swindon could rest players against Colchester and Orient if they don't have a hope of automatic promotion though which might have consequences on the relegation battle.

Would love Crawley to drop given it's by far the worst away day in the league and it'd start their descent back to where they belong. Unfortunately I think they'll scrape survival and no doubt will shithouse a win against us given how badly I want them to drop. My thoughts of them are similar to my thoughts on Stevenage last season. Let's hope for a repeat of Stevenage's fate for them this season.

Orient should stay up as well, fixtures have fallen brilliantly for them and if Preston keep up their form they'll probably be playing weakened sides at the business end of the season.

As for us, all we need to do is win our next 3 home games to survive. Realistically can see us beating Crawley and Walsall (famous last words) but we rarely beat Orient. This needs to change big time. We're on course for survival but defeat on Good Friday could be absolutely damaging for us. Realistically speaking all seven of our remaining games are winnable. Two wins over Easter leaves us looking at 1 win from 5 for survival. However this is Crewe and I've seen us implode at home to bottom of the league Cheltenham when a win would've put us in a great position to stay up the last time we got relegated. As long as we don't have a repeat of 2008-09s long winless run then we should be fine.

Notts will stay up guaranteed, they always seem to get out of this mess and have some decent fixtures.

Coventry will finish mid-table now Mowbray has managed to graft wins from poor performances.

Scunthorpe, Walsall and Port Vale in freefall. Sadly for the latter they've got a lovely run in and will finish mid-table. The two other sides have a challenging run in and a bad bad loss of form at this stage of the season. They'll be in the mix till the final day.

I think it'll be two from us, Crawley, Walsall and Scunthorpe personally.

 

[Crewelad87]

As already been said Yeovil have gone not even Hartlepool esq form will save them, Colchester arnt far behind either. Then after that its all to play for. I actually think our home games vs Orient and Crawley will decide a lot. Firstly we face Crawley on Saturday IF we can beat them, they will have lost 2 on the bounce and it might be tough for them to recover from that. Then the game vs Orient if they pick up less than 4 points from their next 2 (Coventry (A), Gillingham (H) it wont be far off a must win game for Orient given their remaining fixtures.

As it stands id go for
Walsall
Crewe
Notts County
Leyton Orient
------------------------------------------
21. Scunthorpe
22. Crawley
23. Colchester
24. Yeovil

But it will probably go down to the last day and could well be 4 or 5 teams trying to avoid 2 positions.

 

[TimeyWimey]

Whatever the points target, with those final fixtures, I just don't see the four teams below us getting more points than us in the next seven games. Mathematically safe after the Walsall game I reckon.

 

[Saddlerrad]

Dean Smith after yesterday at Chesterfield.. 'If we play like that against Notts County, I'm sure we will win' - Huh? We didn't have a shot, we didn't even play our normal possession game. We looked 10 in confident, unmotivated weaklings with no interest in digging in. Anyone who is simply organised and motivated will cruise through us in coming weeks.

After we lost at Wembley Smith was 'proud'. After we lost against Swindon it was snow, after we no showed at Barnsley 'it was the breeze' (there wasn't one, it was sunny and 12c), after we lost at home to Vale, it's the ref, the other week against Orient it was the fans for jeering our players.

If Smith just admitted what was wrong I'd have more respect for him. As it is, he's slowly starting alienate even his most, loyal and strong fans (me).

I fear this time, he MAY be starting to lose it for the final time before we are relegated and he gets his P45.

 

[jamesslater01]

3 wins from our last 7 games should do it for us. Can we do that? I'm not so sure, despite the fact that our fixtures look decent.

The table if everyone continues their recent form (unlikely, but still...):

Coventry - 56pts
Leyton Orient - 55pts
Port Vale - 54pts
Crawley - 53pts
Walsall - 52pts
Crewe - 52pts
------------------------------
Scunthorpe - 48pts
Notts County - 48pts
Colchester - 45pts
Yeovil - 37pts

 

[RavenBish]

Form is irrelevant purely because so many teams at the bottom have to play each other.

 

[CCFC_Charlie]

We won't be safe until we start to win at home, and considering that our four remaining home games are Orient, Colchester, Oldham and Crewe that is really important.

 

[Bottega Don]

I don't think we will pick up any points over Easter which could put us in even deeper trouble.

 

[jamesslater01]

Form is irrelevant purely because so many teams at the bottom have to play each other.

True. At this stage of the season, anything can happen.

 

[John Locke]

I don't think we will pick up any points over Easter which could put us in even deeper trouble.

Is that cart horse Williams still getting a look in or has he been farmed out to League 2?

His display on the opening day remains one of the highlights of the season so far.

 

[Bottega Don]

Is that cart horse Williams still getting a look in or has he been farmed out to League 2?

His display on the opening day remains one of the highlights of the season so far.

He's our player of the season and had Nathan Byrne in his back pocket when you played here.

You do realise he wasn't fully fit that day right?

 

[Aaron-Bcfc]

He's our player of the season and had Nathan Byrne in his back pocket when you played here.

You do realise he wasn't fully fit that day right?

He was great when we beat you at Ashton Gate as well. One of the few opposition players to have stood out for me this season

 

[Saddlerrad]

Bookies still have us at 14/1. We are a sinking ship with no leaders, no strength and no physical battlers. We are about to go down to the most uneccesary relegation in history. This is a mid table team who lost focus on the league because of Wembley and then let the big occasion come and go with a whimper. We are going down, make no bones about it. Just as Burton and Shrewsbury are coming up too!

NOBODY IS LISTENING.

 

[Bottega Don]

He was great when we beat you at Ashton Gate as well. One of the few opposition players to have stood out for me this season

He's been absolutely brilliant, he was playing LM that game iirc which isn't his possible so it's great to see he impressed your lot.

Shame some people think that one poor performance = poor player.

 

[Aaron-Bcfc]

He's been absolutely brilliant, he was playing LM that game iirc which isn't his possible so it's great to see he impressed your lot.

Shame some people think that one poor performance = poor player.

Yeah he was I think mate, was toe to toe with Mark Little that game and certainly got the better of him.

I wouldn't take John Locke's comments too seriously, he was on the wind up the other day as well

 

[JJ1532]

Bookies still have us at 14/1. We are a sinking ship with no leaders, no strength and no physical battlers. We are about to go down to the most uneccesary relegation in history. This is a mid table team who lost focus on the league because of Wembley and then let the big occasion come and go with a whimper. We are going down, make no bones about it. Just as Burton and Shrewsbury are coming up too!

NOBODY IS LISTENING.

Lose against Notts C on Friday and I'm sure plenty will listen. All you realistically need is one win from Notts C, Fleetwood and Crawley at home. Yes, I know your home record is crap and you are out of form, you recently drew with MK Dons and Sheff U and almost got a point against Chesterfield. I can easily see you pulling a scrappy 1-0 win out of your arses and staying up. 1 win and a couple of draws might well do it.

 

[SkyBlueElephant]

Bookies still have us at 14/1. We are a sinking ship with no leaders, no strength and no physical battlers. We are about to go down to the most uneccesary relegation in history. This is a mid table team who lost focus on the league because of Wembley and then let the big occasion come and go with a whimper. We are going down, make no bones about it. Just as Burton and Shrewsbury are coming up too!

NOBODY IS LISTENING.

You're in the dog fight now definitely as far as I'm concerned, your still in a decent position with regards to being able to get out of it though as you have points on the board and a decent GD. You're in the relegation contenders pack now but I'd still back you to stay up at the moment.

 

[JJ1532]

Well, cat right amongst the pigeons with Orient winning tonight. Notts County now drop into the relegation zone. Scunny and Notts C have a game in hand against tricky opponents(Bradford and Preston) which could prove crucial.

The way teams down the bottom are all picking up points and given the fact a lot of them have to play each other at least twice(some 3 times or more), 50 might not keep you up, nor might 51. Could we see the first team in years relegated with 52 or more?

 

[SkyBlueElephant]

I've been saying for a while now its going to be a high total this year, personally I'm targeting 53-54 for guaranteed safety this year.

 

[SkyBlueElephant]

Big set back for us tonight with the defeat but I'm still quietly confident with the position we are in. A loss to Notts County on Easter Monday though and I'll be getting very worried.

 

[LongEatonPie]

Welcome to the House of Fun... do do di do do. Welcome to the Lions Den.

 

[SkyBlueElephant]

Any chance of a new manager for Notts County before Monday?

 

[TrinidadsNumberOne]

Wouldn't mind that bottom four staying as it is. Two annual defeats vs Notts County, the much maligned Crawley and two long distance awaydays in Colchester and Yeovil down would be highly beneficial.

 

[Aaron-Bcfc]

Any chance of a new manager for Notts County before Monday?

I read something on Twitter saying Hart would be in charge for the next 2 games

 

[LongEatonPie]

I read something on Twitter saying Hart would be in charge for the next 2 games

It almost certain he will be. The "foreseeable future" would hint at that. I suspect that the Moniz deal may not be completely lost and RT has asked Hart and Halsall to continue until Moniz has cleared up the issues he has.
Dave Kevan has now joined, in his caretaker role last time he had a 50% win record so with all three hopefully we can get through the next 2 games picking up at least 4 points.