League Two Top Goalscorer 16/17

[cufc17]

So, League Two top goalscorer odds have been released recently. Sky Bet's odds are as follows:

Jay Simpson 9/1
Jabo Ibehre 10/1
John Akinde 10/1
Andy Williams 11/1
Billy Kee 14/1
Danny Hylton 14/1
Barry Corr 16/1
Omar Bogle 16/1

Dan Holman 18/1
Jack Marriott 18/1
Matt Green 18/1
Conor Chaplin 20/1
Danny Wright 20/1
Pádraig Amond 20/1
Adebayo Akinfenwa 25/1
Gary Roberts 25/1

Izale McLeod 25/1
Jon Stead 25/1
Ben Williamson 28/1
Dayle Southwell 28/1
Ollie Watkins 28/1
Billy Paynter 33/1
David Goodwillie 33/1
Jack Redshaw 33/1

James Collins 33/1
Jordan Bowery 33/1
Mark Cullen 33/1
Shaun Miller 33/1
Charlie Wyke 40/1
Jake Jervis 40/1
Jamille Matt 40/1
John Marquis 40/1

Jon Parkin 40/1
Michael Gash 40/1
Michael Smith 40/1
Milan Lalkovic 40/1
Paul Hayes 40/1
Chris Dagnall 50/1
Chris Porter 50/1
Denny Johnstone 50/1

François Zoko 50/1
Jonathan Forte 50/1
Kurtis Guthrie 50/1
Ollie Palmer 50/1
Ryan Lowe 50/1
Ashley Chambers 66/1
Craig Mackail-Smith 66/1
Curtis Main 66/1

Gary McSheffrey 66/1
Jean-Louis Akpa Akpro 66/1
Jimmy Spencer 66/1
Kevin Ellison 66/1
Matt Harrold 66/1
Matthew Godden 66/1
Robbie Simpson 66/1
Ryan Bird 66/1

Shay McCartan 66/1
Tom Barkhuizen 66/1
Amari Morgan-Smith 80/1
Ben Kennedy 80/1
Jake Hyde 80/1
Joe Pigott 80/1
Lenell John-Lewis 80/1
Paul Mullin 80/1
Adi Yussuf 100/1

Any real surprises in there? Any potential longshots?

In terms of Carlisle, Charlie Wyke at 40/1 could be a decent longshot. Jabo is only 10/1.

Jimmy Spencer (66/1) and Matt Green (18/1) could be solid picks.

 

[Look Out There Are Llamas]

John Marquis looks to me the best value.

Collins and Dagnall both seem good value as well.

Not that I would particularly expect any of them to be top scorer, just wouldn't be surprised if they were.

 

[Judge Dredd]

Already got a few quid on Marriott at 18/1 (shock I know).

"Only" 14 league goals last season, but that doesn't tell the whole story; statistically, he had the second best goals-to-minutes ratio in the division, with only Matty Taylor superior to him on that front. Marriott averaged a goal every 145 minutes or so, which over a full, injury-free season would translate to 28 or so I believe. Doubt he'll get that high, but I do expect him to hit 20+.

 

[PaulHaddock]

Omar Bogle shouldn't be that low. Completely unproven.

 

[Urban]

Lowe, Zoko or Amond are decent picks.

 

[hellogregory]

Can Marriott get his own thread? seeing as Bingham's gone off to bigger and better things...

 

[Judge Dredd]

Can Marriott get his own thread? seeing as Bingham's gone off to bigger and better things...

I can only humbly apologise for mentioning goal-scoring statistics in a thread about betting on goal-scorers.

 

[hellogregory]

I can only humbly apologise for mentioning goal-scoring statistics in a thread about betting on goal-scorers.

Why?

 

[cliftonmagpie]

Spencer haha behave - not a chance he will score more than 15 not alone be golden boot

 

[Flaxman's Alibi]

No Danny Rose quoted whatsoever up to 100/1?

I'll take a sciver on whatever that bookmaker is quoting him then.

 

[FrazerLloyd]

David Goodwillie at 33/1 looks like a decent bet to me.

We're likely to finish in the top seven, so our main striker should score a few. Admittedly, he hasn't been very prolific as of late but if he can live up to his previous hype, then he could be a handful.

In my opinion there's very little point on betting on such a difficult market if you're going to look at low odds.

 

[Flaxman's Alibi]

I don't think anyone can argue with Jay Simpson as favourite, however, I think the rest of the runners and riders have basically been chosen in random order by Dennis, the bookmakers psychic frog.

 

[Richard Cranium]

If we could actually win some penalties this season then Green could be worth a shout. He got 16 last season and I think only 1 was a pen.

 

[hellogregory]

If we could actually win some penalties this season then Green could be worth a shout. He got 16 last season and I think only 1 was a pen.

This is why I don't think any of ours will finish top scorer. Our left back takes our penalties, none of Ibehre's 17 last season were penalties.

When the Green deal finally goes through, he won't be on pens here.

 

[EricSabin]

Can Marriott get his own thread? seeing as Bingham's gone off to bigger and better things...

Problem is, Marriott actually scores goals. Perhaps someone like Jake Hyde can have one

 

[mowgli]

Our leading scorer will probably be OG

 

[Flaxman's Alibi]

There

This is why I don't think any of ours will finish top scorer. Our left back takes our penalties, none of Ibehre's 17 last season were penalties.

When the Green deal finally goes through, he won't be on pens here.

Therein may lie the issue. Promise Matt the spotkicks and it'll probably be a deal breaker.

 

[hellogregory]

There


Therein may lie the issue. Promise Matt the spotkicks and it'll probably be a deal breaker.

He's already pretty much agreed terms apparently. It's just what Mansfield are asking for is way past Carlisle's valuation of him. Both clubs aren't budging at the moment. I expect it will happen, but very late in August

 

[Crewelad87]

Dagnall at 40/1 seems decent value. Lowe 50/1 not bad either just can see him missing a few games.

 

[ambernuts]

I would put money on Corr (again), but only if I was guaranteed he'd be fit for at least 3/4 of season. Pigott has stood out in pre-season so far, still not sure if he'll be first XI for us though. I reckon Williamson will get shifted out wide quite often so not worth a punt there.

As much as I rate Jimmy, I have to agree with cliftonmagpie.

 

[daviejones]

Surprised Jabo's odds are that short compared to Miller and Wyke. Given that we've got 3 pretty equal strikers I'd say it's unlikely that any one of them will run away with top scorer, more likely to share the goals between them, so I wouldn't say any of them are good value there.

 

[WH_Stag]

Ollie palmer

 

[StagsForLife]

Dagnall at 40/1 seems decent value. Lowe 50/1 not bad either just can see him missing a few games.

Lowe scored 8 in L2 last time 2 years ago. He isn't what he used to be. He'll struggle to get 10.

 

[Hatter86]

From our perspective, surprised Hylton is shorter than Marriott.

Matt Green has got to be worth it at 18s.

 

[TimeyWimey]

Lowe scored 8 in L2 last time 2 years ago. He isn't what he used to be. He'll struggle to get 10.

There's also absolutely no way a Dull Davis team would give a striker a chance of top scoring.

 

[NolansOrient]

No mention of Orient's Paul McCallum on the list (well he was injured for c. 6 months last season), but assuming you could get big, big odds, he is definitely worth a punt

 

[David Curries Mullet]

If the Michael Smith of a couple of seasons ago turns up for Portsmouth, 40-1 is a cracking bet.

 

[ProfessorGreen]

Don't think Jimmy Spencer is the type of striker who will bang in 20+ honestly, however his link up play in pre season with Goodwillie has been superb. So if Goodwillie can find his scoring form and make the most of Spencer's apparent ease to play alongside, and if we are to challenge top 7, 33/1 may well be a good price. Think I'll back it.

 

[George Reilly's Hairpiece]

The 14/1 on Akinde would tempt me.

Having signed a new deal, I'd hope he'd see out the season with us and we are geared up to play into his strengths. So unless he forgets how to take penalties, he should be around the 20 goal mark.

 

[Cloudy]

Dan Holman is the real value bet IMO