Local Elections

[The Paranoid Pineapple]

Half considered titling this Local Erections in homage to Spear (rip) and his magnificent 'Don't forget to put your cocks back' threads of TFF yesteryear. But he was a filthy Tory so I don't think he really merits a politics thread in his honour.

Anyway... anything going on where you are (I'm talking strictly ballot related excitement)? Predictions etc? SPILL YOUR LOCAL ELECTION GUTS HERE


(Sorry, this was supposed to be an attempt to reanimate the corpse that is this forum, but I fear I may have desecrated it instead)

 

[Look Out There Are Llamas]

One of my two councillors is up for election.

I am a paid up member of the Lib Dems (for Brexit reasons) and they are competing against a Conservative and a Green candidate. Given that, I'm obviously voting Green. The incumbent is Green (infact both my wards seats are Green) and has done quite a bit for the local community, a vote for the Lib Dem candidate is basically eating into the Green percentage, thus more likely for a Tory win.

Nevertheless even if it was only Green v Lib Dem I would go Green as the incumbent has done some decent work for the area over the last few years.

I expect Epping Forest to be Tory again with Loughton Residents Association providing the main opposition again; they're a collection of independents from across the political spectrum who basically are only in it for Loughton. Fair play to them, they seem to do a good job.

 

[Jockney]

I live in the only all-Tory ward in Hackney. I would say Labour has a chance this year of shoring up the borough completely, but the ward is Springfield, in Stamford Hill... and, well... after the past couple of months... you know...

 

[Aber gas]

Labour are going to rip it up. Cheers

 

[.V.]

Labour are going to rip it up. Cheers

Or not. How are they not ripping this inept govt apart?

 

[Stevencc]

It's all Tory where I now reside because the average age of the constituents is around 105.

I voted Labour, anyway.

No declaration as yet.

 

[Krazy8]

Or not. How are they not ripping this inept govt apart?

Probably because Labour are even worse.

 

[Look Out There Are Llamas]

Probably because Labour are even worse.

Grow up.

Green Party holds Buckhurst Hill East.

Epping Forest gains three Tory councillors though, picking up two UKIP and a Lib Dem.

 

[Jockney]

Or not. How are they not ripping this inept govt apart?

It’s going to take a momentous effort to bridge the current cleavage in British politics. Neither party is going to be able to take overall control at the local or national level for at least a decade or so. There are certain measures that need to be taken (reselection for one), but there also needs to be some patience. We’re not even a year out from the party pulling itself back from the brink of electoral oblivion. Vote share went up in many boroughs, even if councils and councillor returns were short of expectation. The party is making steady progress with four years until another GE. I would like the frontbench to be more tenacious in their opposition, but more than anything I want a Labour Party that has a viable socialist/strongly-social Democratic policy platform going into 2022; an opposition that isn’t reactive but ideologically coherent and looking to create new political constituencies based on a politics that is a clear break from the old model. That is going to take a lot longer than one year, and it might mean a coalition or minority government, but there doesn’t seem to be any alternative.

 

[Fompous Part]

We’re not even a year out from the party pulling itself back from the brink of electoral oblivion.

Yeah... worth remembering the last minute nature of that recovery, as well as the recent history of huge discrepancies between council election results and subsequent general election results.

For example, look at the council election results from 2017. Labour lost approx. 350 councillors and 7 councils, and its overall vote share was about 28%. In the 2017 General Election, which took place 4 WEEKS LATER, Labour won 40% of the vote and the Tories lost their parliamentary majority.

So, yeah, us benighted souls on Team Evil didn't take as bad a mid-term kicking as we expected (esp. in London), but there's little cause for celebration or despair on either side, really.

 

[Fompous Part]

That said, I think it’s fair to say Labour’s results are disappointing relative to the expectations many of its members and supporters had, so it might be interesting to posit and discuss possible reasons for that.

Lack of media focus on the elections? Younger people less invested in council elections? The ongoing intra-party row vis-à-vis anti-Semiticism? Misplaying its hand slightly on Windrush. Growing unease (among Leavers and Remainers) about Labour being too equivocal on Brexit? Poor use of resources? Poor expectation management?

 

[The Jovial Forester]

That said, I think it’s fair to say Labour’s results are disappointing relative the expectations many of its members and supporters had, so it might be interesting to posit and discuss possible reasons for that.

Think there's also a fair bit of appreciation of the difference between the national party and certain shitty local councils like some in London who go above and beyond with the cuts and attacks on social housing etc. But largely the country's just very polarised now and more of the Tory Lib Dem etc vote comes out for the locals, not that Labour are streets ahead nationally but will fare even worse in these I mean.

 

[Jockney]

That said, I think it’s fair to say Labour’s results are disappointing relative to the expectations many of its members and supporters had, so it might be interesting to posit and discuss possible reasons for that.

Lack of media focus on the elections? Younger people less invested in council elections? The ongoing intra-party row vis-à-vis anti-Semiticism? Misplaying its hand slightly on Windrush. Growing unease (among Leavers and Remainers) about Labour being too equivocal on Brexit? Poor use of resources? Poor expectation management?

An unstable political constituency imo. As much as centrists liberals can’t win without us, this Bennite/Corbynite Labour project can’t currently win without social liberals and the overlapping subset of Remain-priority voters. Those people have reliable and consistent turnout at local elections. Postindustrial working classes, especially precarious workers (a large swathe of the country still), do not turn out in these elections proportionately: intuitively, perhaps, because they are precarious and as such are not, or do not feel, civically engaged at the local level. Labour ideally wants another GE soon, or a Brexit meltdown, or else it risks being deflated in the mid-term by a makeshift settlement for aspirational ‘young’ middle class voters (in whatever form that might take, your guess is better than mine). That might not be sustainable long-term, but in the short to mid term it would at least guarantee brutal and protracted civil war in the Labour Party for a good while, as both sides seek to navigate fluctuating social and economic terrain. That sort of scenario might be decisive for the membership: an economic materiality where once more many regular members have something to lose rather than everything to gain... that’s something that hasn’t been the case for a while.

 

[The Paranoid Pineapple]

I think all of the main parties will probably come out of these elections reasonably content. Overall, it rather seems like stalemate so far as Con and Lab are concerned.

Labour - They remain dominant in metropolitan areas. The fact that they didn't achieve any headline-grabbing council gains in London somewhat obscures the fact that they had another very good night in the capital. Expectations were pitched too high here. In reality it was always going to take something extraordinary for them to dislodge the Tories in Wandsworth, Westminster or Kensington & Chelsea. Barnet is a big disappointment as is the failure to advance in Hillingdon, but the overall picture is a good one, with some decent gains.

The national picture is more mixed. The midlands is a particular cause for concern as I think a Labour party priming themselves for government should be looking to win in places such as Peterborough, Derby, Dudley and Walsall. The result in Nuneaton & Bedworth was really poor and the Tories seem to have hoovered up ex-UKIP votes in other leave voting areas. Capturing Plymouth and becoming the largest party on Trafford council were good results though. There's obvious room for improvement but they've done reasonably.

Conservatives - They look resilient, impressively so for a party who've been in government for a while. They generally seem to have held their own and made a few nice gains in tightly contested councils which were previously NOC or Labour. They also look to have effectively captured a lot of the collapsing UKIP vote where that party were strong, but look more susceptible in other parts of the country. Some of their results in the south, where the Lib Dems provide the main opposition, may give cause from concern. The results in South Cambs and the leafy Surrey seat of Tandridge were probably even more eyebrow-raising than the emphatic loss of Kingston and Richmond councils. I think they'll be satisfied overall though. They've avoided the kicking that incumbents are often given in the locals (and which some of us may well believe they merited).

Lib Dems - Some green shoots here, I think. They look like they're recovering somewhat. Having retained Sutton and recorded spectacular wins in Kingston* and Richmond there is, once again, a fairly significant splodge of Lib Dem yellow on the south-west corner of the London electoral map. South Cambridgeshire must go down as a impressive gain, and they'll be pleased to have retained control of the likes of Watford, Eastleigh and Cheltenham. This has to go down as a good night, although some questions perhaps remain as to how well they're able to compete in areas where they don't already have a significant presence.

Greens - Not bad.

UKIP - Lol. Good riddance.


*on a personal note, I'm delighted that the Tories have been ousted in Kingston. The council's gone from a composition of Con 28 Lib 18 Lab 2 to Lib 39 Con 9. A Lib Dem even got in in the ward in which I grew up, and that's only ever elected Tories for as long as I can remember. The council leader also seemed QUITE DREADFUL so I'm glad they've been given a good shoeing.

 

[Fompous Part]

Postindustrial working classes, especially precarious workers (a large swathe of the country still), do not turn out in these elections proportionately: intuitively, perhaps, because they are precarious and as such are not, or do not feel, civically engaged at the local level.

Yeah, I'm stealing this.

 

[Laker]

I think all of the main parties will probably come out of these elections reasonably content. Overall, it rather seems like stalemate so far as Con and Lab are concerned.

Labour - They remain dominant in metropolitan areas. The fact that they didn't achieve any headline-grabbing council gains in London somewhat obscures the fact that they had another very good night in the capital. Expectations were pitched too high here. In reality it was always going to take something extraordinary for them to dislodge the Tories in Wandsworth, Westminster or Kensington & Chelsea. Barnet is a big disappointment as is the failure to advance in Hillingdon, but the overall picture is a good one, with some decent gains.

The national picture is more mixed. The midlands is a particular cause for concern as I think a Labour party priming themselves for government should be looking to win in places such as Peterborough, Derby, Dudley and Walsall. The result in Nuneaton & Bedworth was really poor and the Tories seem to have hoovered up ex-UKIP votes in other leave voting areas. Capturing Plymouth and becoming the largest party on Trafford council were good results though. There's obvious room for improvement but they've done reasonably.

Conservatives - They look resilient, impressively so for a party who've been in government for a while. They generally seem to have held their own and made a few nice gains in tightly contested councils which were previously NOC or Labour. They also look to have effectively captured a lot of the collapsing UKIP vote where that party were strong, but look more susceptible in other parts of the country. Some of their results in the south, where the Lib Dems provide the main opposition, may give cause from concern. The results in South Cambs and the leafy Surrey seat of Tandridge were probably even more eyebrow-raising than the emphatic loss of Kingston and Richmond councils. I think they'll be satisfied overall though. They've avoided the kicking that incumbents are often given in the locals (and which some of us may well believe they merited).

Lib Dems - Some green shoots here, I think. They look like they're recovering somewhat. Having retained Sutton and recorded spectacular wins in Kingston* and Richmond there is, once again, a fairly significant splodge of Lib Dem yellow on the south-west corner of the London electoral map. South Cambridgeshire must go down as a impressive gain, and they'll be pleased to have retained control of the likes of Watford, Eastleigh and Cheltenham. This has to go down as a good night, although some questions perhaps remain as to how well they're able to compete in areas where they don't already have a significant presence.

Greens - Not bad.

UKIP - Lol. Good riddance.


*on a personal note, I'm delighted that the Tories have been ousted in Kingston. The council's gone from a composition of Con 28 Lib 18 Lab 2 to Lib 39 Con 9. A Lib Dem even got in in the ward in which I grew up, and that's only ever elected Tories for as long as I can remember. The council leader also seemed QUITE DREADFUL so I'm glad they've been given a good shoeing.

Just to pick up on your comments about South Cambridgeshire. It’s a “funny” constituency as it surrounds Cambridge city entirely and many of the constituents tend to serve either Cambridge or London. Cambridge currently has a Labour MP after a few years of Lib Dem - this is because the left benefits from the student vote and also there are a fair number of employees of the university & reasonable quantity of working class who vote that way - combined they outweigh the “middle England” element.

South Cambridgeshire on the other hand is real middle England and a traditional Tory win - in fact the constituency has only not been Tory once since 1910 (when Attlee’a welfare bill dominated) and local Tory MPs generally win by 20 points - I don’t expect anything to change in future general elections.

But the Lib Dems always do well locally as their campaigns seem to resonate better at a local level than the Tories and Labour - their campaigning in my village centred on pot holes, stopping the village from being swallowed up by Cambridge etc. One local Tory councillor/candidate also made some pretty disgraceful anti-Semitic comments which didn’t help their cause. It didn’t really have anything to do with Brexit or the way the country is being run by the Tories.