Mid table cup competition

[northstandexile]

Thought it was time to start this, we all knew that Grimsby won the trophy last season but who is in contention this year.

so the winner is the first team who mathematically can’t reach the play offs and can’t go down.

last season it was won with four games to spare, I would have thought with only one relegation place it would be won earlier.

 

[Gladders]

We must be one of the favourites for it again?

Though like you say with Stevenage quite a drift and only one relegation spot, it will probably be someone in a mathematical relegation battle till mid March then be safe and miles from the play-offs that win it

 

[valefan16]

I will plump for Carlisle.

 

[Deepcut Cobbler]

I will plump for Carlisle.

They're going down, haven't you heard?

 

[saddler78]

Could be us this season.

 

[E10rifle]

Orient should have a decent shot at this. Nice to be up for some silverware in our first season back in the big time.

 

[Son of Cod]

The cup to stay in Lincolnshire. With Scunny.

 

[Fedora Dale]

Not noticed Crawley much at either end of the table. Might be them, but would be more amusing if it were Sal£ord...

 

[Vanni]

Frealaf is right; quite a few sides are out of the running to win this much coveted trophy this year due to Boro's poor season.

And while the U's are not going to win this, I can't say I'm that bothered seeing we've already won the Ibehredivisie (aka the CUFC league) this season. Up the U's

 

[Vanni]

Not noticed Crawley much at either end of the table. Might be them, but would be more amusing if it were Sal£ord...

It won't be Crawley (or Grimsby or Orient or Walsall etc). See Frealaf's post as to why not.

I'm going for Carlisle.

 

[BlackHaddock]

This will be won over the Easter weekend, Scunthorpe being the team to do it.

 

[Valeite]

Oldham currently 15 points from play offs and relegation, serene progress no wonder they stayed in league1 for decades

 

[shoddycollins]

https://www.transfermarkt.co.uk/league-two/potentielleendplatzierung/wettbewerb/GB4

Currently, the top 4, Swindon, Exeter, Plymouth and Crewe are mathematically safe.

Stevenage are the only team mathematically incapable of winning the title, though even they could get into the playoffs.

This week is actually the first time that Stevenage have been unable to get automatic promotion while the last couple of matchdays have seen Swindon safe, followed by the other three.

There's a little gap between Plymouth and Cheltenham so I imagine it could be another two or three weeks before we see teams below 4th mark their safety but once they do it should spread quickly down the table.

Since Stevenage are adrift at the bottom and have only just become incapable of getting automatic promotion while Morecambe could still win the title, then it could be a while yet before the teams above them become incapable of qualifying for the playoffs.

In practice for the likes of Morecambe and Carlisle, the gap up to the playoffs will extend faster than the gap down to relegation but could still be two or three weeks before they're incapable of reaching the automatic places and even longer before they're incapable of reaching the playoffs, by which point the whole top half will likely be safe from relegation.

As per Frealaf's point I would say that any team in the top half, and probably any team with more than 40 points currently will be safe from relegation long before the playoffs becomes impossible.

 

[valefan16]

We could be safe as early as Saturday as Stevenage losing or drawing Max 23 points and Vale winning 57 would be 34 points clear with 33 left to play for so anyone down to and including safe can breath a sigh of relief potentially... (if we were HG level panic)

 

[shoddycollins]

After yesterday's matches, Cheltenham are now safe. Stevenage can still make the playoffs... only just, while Morecambe's title dreams are over though they could still go up automatically.

 

[AdamStag]

After yesterday's matches, Cheltenham are now safe. Stevenage can still make the playoffs... only just, while Morecambe's title dreams are over though they could still go up automatically.

I wonder if you went to a bookies what the odds you’d get on that? It’d surely be in the tens of thousands to one.

 

[Gladders]

I wonder if you went to a bookies what the odds you’d get on that? It’d surely be in the tens of thousands to one.

Surely it must be impossible? I know mathematically they can make it if they win every game but every other team can't drop that many points to mean Morecambe go into automatics can they?

 

[AdamStag]

Surely it must be impossible? I know mathematically they can make it if they win every game but every other team can't drop that many points to mean Morecambe go into automatics can they?

I think they could, but it would take a ridiculous number of combinations for it to happen and for them to win every game.

If that scenario was played out every day for instance someone in their 20s would be 100 or more before that combination came in.

 

[Vanni]

#stevenageforleaguefootball

 

[GTFCfish]

I can't say I'm that bothered seeing we've already won the Ibehredivisie (aka the CUFC league) this season. Up the U's

So you scoff at the idea of the Brotherhood league but you yourself are buzzing your tits off over winning the CUFC league eh.

Incidentally we ourselves have won the GTFC league every year for over a hundred years as Gainsborough Trinity and Grantham Town have never been high enough to play us in the league and therefore as the highest ranked team we win it by default every season.

 

[shoddycollins]

So you scoff at the idea of the Brotherhood league but you yourself are buzzing your tits off over winning the CUFC league eh.

Incidentally we ourselves have won the GTFC league every year for over a hundred years as Gainsborough Trinity and Grantham Town have never been high enough to play us in the league and therefore as the highest ranked team we win it by default every season.

All Lincolnshire... interesting.

That said, a league doesn't exist if the teams aren't playing each other... that would like saying you won the league every season between 1939 and 1945.

 

[Deepcut Cobbler]

After yesterday's matches, Cheltenham are now safe. Stevenage can still make the playoffs... only just, while Morecambe's title dreams are over though they could still go up automatically.

We need a point to be safe.

 

[shoddycollins]

We need a point to be safe.

Think if Stevenage lose again on Saturday, everyone down to Port Vale is immediately safe, thoroughly dashing Stevenage's hopes of playing in L1 next year.

 

[Trapdoor]

Think if Stevenage lose again on Saturday, everyone down to Port Vale is immediately safe, thoroughly dashing Stevenage's hopes of playing in L1 next year.

Do you think it was premature of Westley to jump ship since the Championship dream is still alive and well?

 

[Deepcut Cobbler]

Think if Stevenage lose again on Saturday, everyone down to Port Vale is immediately safe, thoroughly dashing Stevenage's hopes of playing in L1 next year.

Ah yes, but we could get our safety point tomorrow night at Cheltenham...

 

[shoddycollins]

Ah yes, but we could get our safety point tomorrow night at Cheltenham...

And with Cheltenham already safe, some of the pressure may be eased on them, while you're still fighting relegation.

 

[valefan16]

We could go down on GD although I imagine Stevenage couldn't make the play offs mathematically because teams have to play each other guaranteeing the point tally now wouldnt physically be possible.

 

[shoddycollins]

We could go down on GD although I imagine Stevenage couldn't make the play offs mathematically because teams have to play each other guaranteeing the point tally now wouldnt physically be possible.

I've just been going off this.
https://www.transfermarkt.co.uk/league-two/potentielleendplatzierung/wettbewerb/GB4

They might be taking into account teams playing each other... it doesn't say.

 

[hellogregory]

If we win this I’ll be celebrating it like a league title.

 

[shoddycollins]

With the caveat that I don't know how thoroughly these are calculated (whether it takes into account where teams have to play each other*) this is what the weekend's matches (and those on Tuesday night) did.

Plymouth, Northampton and Port Vale are all now safe, Plymouth despite being beaten. Those teams can put their feet up now and just coast along to summer.

Additionally, those teams from Cheltenham up are now 'traditionally' safe in that they can't finish in the bottom two.

Finally, Stevenage are the first team to be incapable of going up, while Morecambe must resign themselves to fighting to get into the playoffs now that automatic promotion is off the table. Everyone else could still snatch the title from under Swindon's noses.

*I'm not sure that has a huge effect until we're talking about less than half a dozen games remaining.