Real League Table Thread (also kit colour discussion, blame glasshalffullpools)

[Glasshalffullpools]

Black is the new Orange ?

 

[PoolieTom]

Why are we such a light blue when our kit is dark blue?

Disgraceful shoddy.

 

[shoddycollins]

Why are we such a light blue when our kit is dark blue?

Disgraceful shoddy.

Last time I looked you wore blue and white stripes, have you changed?

 

[shoddycollins]

I had expected to end this thread at the end of the year, with it becoming more appropriate for people to post this sort of thing in the promotion/relegation threads, however it looks like it could be relatively late in the season before genuine relegation and promotion battles crystallise out of homogenous blob that is everyone between 6th and 23rd. The last few weeks I think we're just about getting to the point where teams can be called as either top half or bottom half.

44 - Plymouth
43-
42 - Carlisle - Doncaster
41 -
40 -
39 -
38-
37-
36-
35 - Portsmouth - Luton
34 - Wycombe
33 -
32 -
31 - Cambridge
30 - Blackpool - Stevenage - Barnet
29 - Crawley
28 - Yeovil
27 - Colchester
26 - Grimsby - Exeter - Crewe - Mansfield
25 -
24 -
23 - Hartlepool - Morecambe*
22 - Notts County
21 - Leyton Orient - Accrington - Cheltenham
20 -
19 -
18 -
17 - Newport*

The top three all won today, and remain as you were with Plymouth keeping top place for Christmas. Pompey's failure to win means they have increased the gap to seven points, while Luton also won to move back level with Pompey (a familiar place for them). Wycombe's fantastic run of form means that the gap is finally closed, and indeed with a three point gap back to Cambridge, we can't talk of a top five, as we have done for so long, but a top six. Cambridge don't look too shabby either.

A gap continues to open between what looks like a set of teams who will struggle and a set of teams still hoping to be in the promotion shake-up. Ten points isn't a huge distance between 7th and 23rd but the general idea of seven or so teams in a relegation battle, and almost a dozen yet to make thier minds up between mid-table mediocrity and a play-off challenge seems about typical. Teams down the bottom end certainly haven't been on the move much recently, while just above them you have Grimsby, Crewe and Mansfield in danger of falling out of contention while Colchester and Exeter have much more to hope for.

A win for Cheltenham brings them back into the relegation tussle if not out of the bottom two, and one more Newport look adrift, though they were winning against Morecambe last week when it was abandoned.

 

[shoddycollins]

I guess I'll keep this going for a bit longer, until the promotion and relegation threads naturally take over. I don't know all the historic survival thresholds and can't be bothered going to find them, but three will now be above them.

48 - Plymouth
47-
46 - Carlisle - Doncaster
45 -
44 -
43 -
42-
41-
40-
39 - Portsmouth
38 - Luton- Wycombe
37 -
36 -
35 - Cambridge
34 - Blackpool
33 - Colchester - Barnet
32 -
31 -
30 - Exeter - Grimsby - Yeovil - Stevenage
29 - Crawley
28 -
27 - Crewe - Mansfield
26 - Hartlepool - Morecambe*
25 - Leyton Orient
24 - Accrington
23 -
22 - Notts County
21 - Cheltenham
20 -
19 -
18 -
17 - Newport*

The only thing to have changed in the terms of where the top 8 are in respect to each other, is that Luton have dropped from being below Pompey on GD to being above Wycombe on GD. Everybody else down to Blackpool is 4 points better off than they were two games ago. Overall, there hasn't been a huge amount of movement, just a gap beneath Barnet which marks the lower boundary of the promotion race, though Exeter are going in the right direction to join it and Grimsby or Yeovil could sneak back in too.

Below that you have either teams that have fallen out of contention due to bad form (Stevenage and Crawley), or a set of teams who have been down the wrong end almost all season long (Hartlepool, Orient, Cheltenham etc.)... oh, and Notts County.

So much for teams that wear red having an advantage.

 

[Vanni]

''So much for teams that wear red having an advantage''

I think I've cracked it now Shoddy. It's all down to the club's initials, and nothing to do with wearing red or any other colour.

CUFC = 2nd, 7th and 9th.

 

[shoddycollins]

''So much for teams that wear red having an advantage''

I think I've cracked it now Shoddy. It's all down to the club's initials, and nothing to do with wearing red or any other colour.

CUFC = 2nd, 7th and 9th.

When's the next game in the CUFC League? You looked done for, but it's gonna hot up now. I guess it'll be U's vs U's again.

 

[Vanni]

When's the next game in the CUFC League? You looked done for, but it's gonna hot up now. I guess it'll be U's vs U's again.

We've got Colchester at home on 4th March, and then travel up to BP the following Saturday. So two back to back CUFCs matches

edit - I see you're away to Colchester in 8 days time. A win for you lot and the mini-league would be pretty much over.

 

[Glasshalffullpools]

I hope Pools change to light purple in Shoddyland is a sign we are on the up

 

[shoddycollins]

I hope Pools change to light purple in Shoddyland is a sign we are on the up

As with all the other purple teams, it's a sign you complained about the colour-scheme.

 

[Glasshalffullpools]

I'm comfortable with purple .....can't see Mansfield being happy though

 

[BlackHaddock]

The future is bright
The future is Black and White.

 

[Richard Cranium]

108 - Guaranteed Champions
107
106
105
104 - Guaranteed Promotion
103 - Predicted Champions
102
101
100
99
98
97
96 - Guaranteed Playoffs
95
94 - Champions 2015
93 - Champions 2012
92
91
90
89
88
87
86 - Champions 2011
85 - Promotion 2015
84 - Champions 2014, Promotion 2012 : Predicted Promotion
83 - Champions 2013
82
81 - Promotion 2014
80 - Promotion 2011
79
78 - Promotion 2013
77
76
75
74
73 - Guaranteed Safety
72 - Playoffs 2012
71 - Playoffs 2014, Playoffs 2015
70
69 - Playoffs 2013 : Predicted Playoffs
68 - Playoffs 2011
67
66
65
64
63
62
61
60
59
58
57
56
55
54
53
52
51 - Safety 2013
50 - Safety 2014
49 - Doncaster
48 - Safety 2011 : Plymouth
47
46 - Safety 2012 : Carlisle
45 - Safety 2015
44
43
42 - Portsmouth
41 - Wycombe
40 - Predicted Safety
39
38 - Luton, Cambridge
37
36 - Colchester, Barnet
35
34 - Blackpool
33 - Exeter, Grimsby
32 - Crawley
31
30 - Yeovil, Stevenage, Mansfield
29
28 - Crewe
27 - Hartlepool, Morecambe
26
25 - Leyton Orient, Accrington
24
23
22 - Notts County
21 - Cheltenham
20
19
18
17 - Newport

Just stole this from Stags For Life's thread last year.

 

[Glasshalffullpools]

I will stick my neck out here and say 70 points will guarantee safety

 

[hellogregory]

I will stick my neck out here and say we won't go down

 

[Chief Rocka]

I will stick my neck out here and say 70 points will guarantee safety

Only 43 points to go, piece of piss!

 

[Gladders]

Good effort Dick, but needs colour

 

[Laker]

We need 66 more points from 22 games to guarantee promotion.

Better get to it.....

 

[AdamStag]

I'm comfortable with purple .....can't see Mansfield being happy though

I preferred our rainbow colours

 

[shoddycollins]

I will stick my neck out here and say 70 points will guarantee safety

I'm wondering if it's a mathematical thing, like it could be extremely improbable but theoretically possible for 23 teams to all get 72 or more points but not 73

It would be one of these crazy scenarios... of the top of my head I think the highest number of points you could get the teams down the bottom end to have would be if everyone won every home game and lost every away game.... everyone ends on 69 points.

If you then take the one team and have them also lose their home games then they have 0 points and finish bottom, while everyone else gets an extra three points and now everyone has 72, and one team finishes second bottom on goal difference with 72 points. But it's not possible I don't think to come up with a scenario where the second bottom team has more than that.

The other thing is that despite it being possible to go down on 72, it wouldn't be possible to just avoid relegation on 73, as in this scenario, for a team to have 73 points, they would need to draw one of their away games instead of losing it, giving them an extra point, but this would also mean the team who drew their home game instead of winning dropping two points to 70, so now you 'need' 71 to avoid relegation, whereas 73 actually gets you the title.

So there's not a huge amount of value in having 73 as a target for anyone to guarantee survival.

Needless to say, the ship has sailed on that happening this season.

 

[Glasshalffullpools]

I don't think the fact teams play each other has been factored in ......imagine how you'd feel if you finished 2 points behind the Champions and got relegated !

 

[shoddycollins]

I don't think the fact teams play each other has been factored in ......imagine how you'd feel if you finished 2 points behind the Champions and got relegated !

Well that's what I meant when I said the ship has sailed on that possibility. It just looks like a theoretical way an entire season could pan out.

 

[Richard Cranium]

108 - Guaranteed Champions
107
106
105
104 - Guaranteed Promotion
103 - Predicted Champions
102
101
100
99
98
97
96 - Guaranteed Playoffs
95
94 - Champions 2015
93 - Champions 2012
92
91
90
89
88
87
86 - Champions 2011
85 - Promotion 2015
84 - Champions 2014, Promotion 2012 : Predicted Promotion
83 - Champions 2013
82
81 - Promotion 2014
80 - Promotion 2011
79
78 - Promotion 2013
77
76
75
74
73 - Guaranteed Safety
72 - Playoffs 2012
71 - Playoffs 2014, Playoffs 2015
70
69 - Playoffs 2013 : Predicted Playoffs
68 - Playoffs 2011
67
66
65
64
63
62 - Doncaster
61
60
59
58
57 - Plymouth
56
55
54
53
52 - Carlisle
51 - Safety 2013
50 - Safety 2014
49
48 - Safety 2011 - Exeter
47
46 - Safety 2012 - Luton, Wycombe
45 - Safety 2015 - Portsmouth
44
43 - Mansfield
42
41 - Colchester, Barnet
40 - Predicted Safety - Grimsby
39 - Cambridge, Stevenage
38
37 - Blackpool
36 - Yeovil
35 - Crawley
34
33
32 - Morecambe
31 - Hartlepool
30
29 - Accrington, Cheltenham, Crewe
28
27
26 - Notts County
25 - Leyton Orient
24
23 - Newport

 

[DearneValleyRover]

Looking st the number of clubs chasing promotion/play-offs I think 79 points will be sufficient

 

[AdamStag]

We're nearly safe

 

[hellogregory]

We're safe. Get in!

 

[Glasshalffullpools]

We're safe. Get in!

It only takes a wrongly registered player points reduction , a quick administration and you are right back in it ....

 

[hellogregory]

Going by the points totals required to make top 7 over the past few years, the likelihood of us making it is looking quite dodgy if our form continues the way it has been this year.

Whilst we're still in a good position to achieve top 7, I wouldn't put money on it that's for sure.

 

[Richard Cranium]

108 - Guaranteed Champions
107
106
105
104 - Guaranteed Promotion
103 - Predicted Champions
102
101
100
99
98
97
96 - Guaranteed Playoffs
95
94 - Champions 2015
93 - Champions 2012
92
91
90
89
88
87
86 - Champions 2011
85 - Promotion 2015
84 - Champions 2014, Promotion 2012 : Predicted Promotion
83 - Champions 2013
82
81 - Promotion 2014
80 - Promotion 2011
79
78 - Promotion 2013
77
76
75
74
73 - Guaranteed Safety
72 - Playoffs 2012
71 - Playoffs 2014, Playoffs 2015
70
69 - Playoffs 2013 : Predicted Playoffs
68 - Playoffs 2011 - Doncaster (104)
67
66
65
64
63
62 - Plymouth (101)
61
60
59
58 - Carlisle (94)
57
56 - Portsmouth (95)
55
54 - Luton (93), Exeter (90)
53
52 - Stevenage (88)
51 - Safety 2013 - Mansfield (87)
50 - Safety 2014 - Colchester (86)
49
48 - Safety 2011 -
47 - Grimsby (83), Wycombe (83)
46 - Safety 2012 - Cambridge (85), Barnet (82), Morecambe (85)
45 - Safety 2015 -
44 - Blackpool (84)
43
42 - Crawley (81)
41
40 - Predicted Safety - Yeovil (76)
39
38 - Cheltenham (74)
37 - Notts County (73)
36 - Crewe (72)
35 - Accrington (77), Hartlepool (71)
34
33
32
31
30
29 - Leyton Orient (65)
28
27
26 - Newport County (65)

Plymouth need 4 points to be mathematically safe then...

 

[K-Win]

I think there's something wrong with your calculations, Shoddy. You have Cheltenham miles down that list for some reason.