Relegation

[Tinnion's right foot]

So who do we think will go down?

 

[YEO YEO YEO]

Crewe, Donny, Gillingham and Cheltenham

 

[WhiteRussian]

Crewe, Donny, Gillingham and Cheltenham

Cheltenham? No chance. I'd go for AFC. The others you are probably right.

 

[DearneValleyRover]

We are definitely down

 

[Bobbin']

The current 4 will be the 4 to drop I imagine although Gillingham are giving themselves a chance now.

 

[DippyDon]

I think the bottom 3 are pretty much set, though Gillingham and Doncaster are at least giving it a good go.

I'd like the last one to be AFC but they'll end up turning into the greatest team in the world again in April as they normally do and if Morecambe don't win both of their next 2 games then I really don't fancy them based on the run in.

 

[Davidimp]

The current 4 will be the 4 to drop I imagine although Gillingham are giving themselves a chance now.

Just lost Danny Lloyd for the rest of the season, that wont help them as he's been playing very well lately.
But I do agree they've been doing well.

 

[GFC4EVA]

We've given ourselves a chance with results, Saturdays game vs morecambe is a must win for both sides I feel and with Wimbledon at home in a week Tuesday, could really decide if we can stay up.

Much more confident we can stay up now than I was 2 weeks ago, but feel we may have left it to late to appoint harris

 

[YEO YEO YEO]

I clearly have too much time on my hands and love a good spreadsheet. Now that I've accepted we're in a relegation fight, I was too intrigued not to have a look...

Firstly a list of remaining games, those in orange are against each other.
Underneath you have current points, games left and average place of opponent. As you can see Donny have a good run in, Morecambe & Shrewsbury (they play Rotherham twice!) the worst!

 

[YEO YEO YEO]

I then looked at the following:
* How many points to 50 and what that equates to in PPG
* Season PPG, Last 6 Points & PPG, Last 10 Points & PPG

Finally, based on PPG calculations from those above, I was able to work out approx what that equates to in actual points, and added them to the current points total, as you can then see the tables below. If the last 6 form carries on, it's going to mighty tight!

Apologies, there may be a couple of errors in here, it's late, I was intrigued but please let me know if you spot anything!

 

[DearneValleyRover]

I agree that 43 points should be enough, the problem with our run in is that we have in effect 6 cup finals

 

[Bobbin']

Cheers. I’ve been trying to convince myself that we should be alright and now see you’ve included us.

I’m worrying again.

 

[YEO YEO YEO]

Cheers. I’ve been trying to convince myself that we should be alright and now see you’ve included us.

I’m worrying again.

You should be fine. You are averaging a point a game over last 10, carry that on and you will limp over the line!

 

[Bobbin']

You should be fine. You are averaging a point a game over last 10, carry that on and you will limp over the line!

Agree to be fair. Our remaining home fixtures are looking quite favourable, win a couple of those and pick up a couple of draws elsewhere we’ll be more than fine.

 

[SVH]

Looking at the Morecambe fixtures I actually think they're doomed. Donny got some favourable fixtures and I think they'll stay up.

 

[YEO YEO YEO]

Agreed, despite how poor Donny looked against us, they seemed to soak up the pressure and ride their luck, similar to Accrington, then get the goal as the game went on!

Im beginning to sway to AFC Wimbledon

 

[Ninety Per Cent]

Crewe are gone, Gillingham probably left it too late. Morecambe and Donny will scrape out of it to be replaced any 2 of Shrewsbury/Lincoln/Wimbledon.

 

[gary]

I think a lot will hinge on our game with Doncaster on Saturday.Win it and I'll think we'll be ok.It will probably be a draw .Despite only winning two home game's this season we have only lost to Rotherham,Wigan and Plymouth at home.No win in 14 so obviously confidence is low.

 

[WhiteRussian]

Crewe are gone, Gillingham probably left it too late. Morecambe and Donny will scrape out of it to be replaced any 2 of Shrewsbury/Lincoln/Wimbledon.

Lincoln won't be in it. They are far too good compared with the other teams below them.

 

[YEO YEO YEO]

Lincoln won't be in it. They are far too good compared with the other teams below them.

As much as that might be the case, we are a young team that thrive on confidence. We are down here for a reason!

 

[masi51]

Lincoln won't be in it. They are far too good compared with the other teams below them.

Agree impressed with Lincoln mid week....Good full backs and any team with Scully will get goals in this league

 

[THE LAST WALTZ]

Harris has come in and got us organised and instilled a bit of fight and grit into the team but we simply don’t have enough goals in us to survive I feel.
As said, too little too late.
Evans needed to go much sooner.

 

[DearneValleyRover]

We’ve had a bit of good news, too late for Saturday but we should have Anderson, Galbraith and Bostock back as of Monday and the following week, John and Hiwula. Just leaves Taylor and Seaman to come back. This will give us far more options from the bench and allow us to rest some players.

 

[Millerbri]

Morecambe played really well on Tuesday and were well worth a point.
With Adams back they should start climbing away from the bottom, they have a very good goal scorer.

 

[YEO YEO YEO]

Surprise surprise. Same old story at home today. At least we've got more away games left than home, but my god its depressing. We can't seem to find a way that works at home.

 

[Super_horns]

Didn't realise Charlton were so low.

Surely they won't go down?

 

[Ninety Per Cent]

Surprise surprise. Same old story at home today. At least we've got more away games left than home, but my god its depressing. We can't seem to find a way that works at home.

As long as the teams below you don't win their extra games you should be alright. desperately need to invest in a goalscorer in the summer though.

 

[Davidimp]

As long as the teams below you don't win their extra games you should be alright. desperately need to invest in a goalscorer in the summer though.

Marquis got 3 in 3 on arrival but since then he's looked a shadow of that player since then.
Scully got loads before he got injured and hasn't looked the same since , 1 cracking goal against Oxford.
The two youngsters from Swansea look out of their depth sadly.
Our lack of an experienced keeper could be our biggest problem, great shotstopper but doesn't command his area and every team in the division know this.

 

[Davidimp]

This has 2011 written all over it for me we're sleep walking into league two.
We consistently get beaten by the teams around us, normally at home too and normally without scoring.

 

[GeneralLee]

Marquis got 3 in 3 on arrival but since then he's looked a shadow of that player since then.
Scully got loads before he got injured and hasn't looked the same since , 1 cracking goal against Oxford.
The two youngsters from Swansea look out of their depth sadly.
Our lack of an experienced keeper could be our biggest problem, great shotstopper but doesn't command his area and every team in the division know this.

In fairness to Appy, you’d have though he’ll sort you guys out in the summer. With us he nipped problems in the bud at the earliest opportunity and quietly parted ways with those with no future.