Step 4 Promotion and the Points per Game Place

[RobS]

Many of you might know that with the restructuring around the new step 3 'Midlands' division, there's an intriguing direct promotion place from step 4 to 3 on offer to the step 4 team finishing 3rd in their league with the best points per game (PPG)

In an idle half hour this morning, I thought I'd have a look at where this might go. The short answer is that it's looking good for Hyde United and Scarborough Athletic in the Northern Prem North.

The longer answer:
Scarborough are currently the best 3rd place team with 2.162 PPG, a good margin ahead of Bowers & Pitsea on 1.951. Hyde, in 2nd, are on 1 point more than Scarborough having played the same number of games, so would be in a strong position to take the spot even if they're passed by Scarborough. The main challenger probably comes from Hartley Wintney in 4th place in the Southern League East, who have a PPG of 1.97, and a fighting chance of catching 2nd placed Rushden & Diadmons who are currently on 2.054.

I also realized that we could quickly use Excel to calculate a 'minimum PPG' target, based on the current best rated teams. In other words, any team wanting the direct promotion spot would have to finish with a better PPG than Scarborough would have if they lost all their remaining games and still finished 3rd - that is, better than 1.905. At the moment, this still leaves several teams in contention but wins this weekend for Hyde and Scarborough, who both have fairly easy home matches, would start to put the direct place beyond several more teams, including all contenders in the Southern League South/West.

Having looked at it all, I think that Scarborough/Hyde are the likely beneficiaries, but teams from the Southern League East and both Isthmian Leagues remain potentially in contention if the Northern North sides slip up. In particular, Scarborough have a couple of tricky away matches at Colwyn Bay and Colne coming up so could still drop points. I'll update my numbers over the weekend and before the midweek matches as it begins to become clearer where the automatic spot will go!

 

[BigDaveCUFC]

when they go 4 leagues below conf north and south how will promotions and relegation go??

will it be 4 going down from both conf north and south in future and 2 up from each league or somehow 6 promotions from 4 leagues??

 

[Paddy]

I'd imagine that would be right...

4 down from Conf North
4 down from Conf South

2 up from Southern
2 up from NPL
2 up from Isthmian
2 up from new Midlands division

That makes the most sense. But then again the fact that it makes the most sense probably means the FA will opt for some other way.

 

[djs]

for some incredibly detailed discussion on this topic, have a gander at the nonleaguematters site. Nerds spend all season discussing all of the possibilities in the restructuring sub forum..

 

[Soup Ladle]

for some incredibly detailed discussion on this topic, have a gander at the nonleaguematters site. Nerds spend all season discussing all of the possibilities in the restructuring sub forum..

Just been announced that this lad, by popular demand, has won the nonleague matters pinup boy for the 2017/18 season...

Colin Hackett, 34, an IT technician and season ticket holder at Rainworth Miners Welfare, told national media that he planned to celebrate the honour by creating a new fantasy restructuring league for steps 18/19 and 20, opening at the start of the 2018/19 season. A points system has yet to be devised but he revealed he's going for an additional prestigious honour. His work in creating an algorithm to assign points to entrants in his fantasy restructuring league has potentially broken the amount of hours working on something completely pointless without having sex. The current record stands at 4754 hours over a period of six months. He plans to spend 4755 hours working on it over the same time period. 'I'm buzzing for it' exclaimed an excited Colin.

 

[RobS]

So after the weekend & early week matches a couple of draw have seen Hyde drop into 3rd in the Northern Prem North, with Scarborough's win tonight putting them into 2nd place. Hartley Witney got a win at the weekend in the Southern League East, so they're on 76 points from 38 games compared to Hyde's 83 from 39. That's still probably the only real challenge to the Northern North sides but Hyde can go a long way to getting direct promotion with a win at home to Radcliffe on Thursday.

 

[Jemfy]

It is ridiculous that Thurrock's resignation will lead to the best losing playoff finalist going up. It means that a game will be played where one team (the best placed of all the finalists) will actually be playing to prevent a team getting promoted. While this isn't dissimilar to some end of season games those situations are always more complex due to multiple games at the same time, and they are a balance of the season's fixtures. It just seems wrong to me that a playoff final can have only one team with anything on the line, and the opposition as party poopers only.

It's not a great solution but the 2nd best PPG 3rd placed team should be the one offered promotion and extend those playoffs as per the other divisions.

Thankfully for our sake Diamonds took a step away from needing that 3rd placed spot should it be available tonight, but we're a long way from there yet with an away game at Cambridge City on Saturday. While unlikely based on the number of games they have to play the Lilywhites are still in with a chance of finishing in the top 2/3 and going for automatic promotion.

 

[RobS]

A win for Hyde Utd last night has made a big step towards the Northern Prem North clubs taking the direct 3rd place spot.

It's now a straight fight between the NPN and the Southern East, which both have a 42 game season. Hyde and Scarborough are on 86 points each, Hyde with 2 to play and Scarborough with 3. In the SE, R&D are on 82 points and Hartley Witney on 79, both with 3 to play. Cambridge City could still snatch it but it's highly unlikely.

So both Hyde and Scarborough know that 1 win in their final matches will gain them promotion.

 

[Jemfy]

As ever someone on the NLM forum has done a spreadsheet for this stuff

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/19IYalmuYUB-xj6akiGKTOy15BuKDQ36ipalVzYeDzZo/htmlview

Hyde/whoever finishes 3rd in the NPN has it tied up, therefore all of the top 3 in that division are officially promoted.