the middle east Thread

[NorfolkWomble]

I don't know, because they aren't in control. What I do know is any regime that executes over 10k people in one prison in 5 or so years is not a regime we should help at all. Christ, how on earth could we claim any kind of moral legitimacy after that? What kind of message do you think that would send the oppressed Sunnis in Syria? It'd send the message that the only people who could protect them are Daesh, and they'd have a point.

Daesh are a flash in the pan, an intervention on the side of one of the most appalling regimes in Middle Eastern history is not. That would have ramifications.

I'm not denying that 10k have been killed, it is quite possible but the way Amnesty have calculated it is spurious at the least, they've essentially taken an average of a short period and then tried to apply that to the entire time of Assad's reign. Also the claims of Sunni oppression in Iraq at least are very doubtful right now, not sure about Syria but I'm pretty sure sectarianism driven by the government wasn't a major problem in Syria pre-revolution, I may be wrong.

Dudes being hanged in Syrian jails doesn't represent danger to me and my kind in the north of England.

I'm alright jack.

Neither do ISIS really.

 

[Abertawe]

IS represents huge danger. Whenever I'm and about I'm wary of lone wolf attack.

 

[DarkSithLord]

BBC Breaking News‏Verified account @BBCBreaking 4m4 minutes ago
At least 58 people killed in suspected chemical attack on rebel-held Syrian town, activists and monitoring group say http://bbc.in/2n6j7wU

 

[Martino Quackavelli]

'Red line'

 

[Martino Quackavelli]

Aaaaaand the hospital treating victims of the attack has been bombed.

 

[The Eyes of Self Actual]

BBC Breaking News‏Verified account @BBCBreaking 4m4 minutes ago
At least 58 people killed in suspected chemical attack on rebel-held Syrian town, activists and monitoring group say http://bbc.in/2n6j7wU

I don't understand why Assad would do this?

He is pushing back ISIS easily. The war is won.

Looks like a potential false flag for me to convince the US & NATO to come and take out Assad so they can get another failed state to control and convert to radical Islam (see Libya).

 

[Martino Quackavelli]

Because he's a loon. The most compelling explanation for the Ghouta attack was a miscommunication resulting in chemical weapon shells being loaded instead of conventional HE ones. Ever since fuck all happened with Obama's ultimatum we've seen limited chemical weapon deployment, so it's obviously in Assad's playbook. That's leaving aside the fact that the pro-state faction is far more fragmented now, the various armed factions fighting for him are more or less independent - hence the reports of various militias and corps fighting amongst themselves.

Also Assad is not fighting Daesh.

Well he is but it's kinda half-arsed.

 

[Captain Scumbag]

If Assad is responsible and a red line has been crossed, what in your opinion, Quackers, is the appropriate response?

 

[The Eyes of Self Actual]

Because he's a loon. The most compelling explanation for the Ghouta attack was a miscommunication resulting in chemical weapon shells being loaded instead of conventional HE ones.
.

He doesn’t need to do it though. He’s winning the battle easily. It just seems strange with the timing. Surely all he needs to do is play it safe and keep defeating the extremists without using chemical weapons. Assad isn’t going to lose this unless NATO turns up full force and that would be awful for everyone involved (bar ISIS of course).

 

[Martino Quackavelli]

That's what I'm saying, it probably wasn't a conscious decision by Assad, there's a whole host of lovely characters working for the cause who could have - with or without his say so.

And what would I do if the line has been crossed (as it has many times now)? I dunno, I think the one chance we had to do something was after Ghouta but Putin outmanoeuvred Obama there so there's not much we can do now is there. It's all a bit ridiculous though, chemical weapons suck n all but I'd wager the average citizen fears barrel bombs more.

 

[Martino Quackavelli]

Didn't see that coming.

 

[Abertawe]

Has there been undeniable detail put out that proves Assad involvement? I've got a conspiracy.

 

[Renegade]

That it's an excuse for the US to intervene despite chemical attacks being commonplace in the Syrian conflict? Wait, no, you like Trump don't you?

Not sure how Trump has any leg to stand on considering his target has always been ISIS, not Assad. That chemical weaponry has already been used in the area and he didn't strongly speak up about it before. That just a couple of days after this attack, the US almost immediately strike. This soon into his Presidency. It smacks of desperation to get involved/war profiteering. The next few years are going to be just delightful.

The imaginary red line has just been crossed, this second, because he feels like it. We should feel confident that the President can be so easily swayed by his emotion upon seeing children gasping for air in a chemical attack, despite the fact that thousands of them had already perished at the hands of this regime. In November his solution to the Syrian conflict was to back Assad and work alongside Russia to defeat ISIS.

 

[Abertawe]

If I'm correct Trump hasn't got a choice in the matter so you're wasting your time putting blame on him.

 

[Renegade]

Maybe he's just a puppet, but his flip-flopping and invocation of emotive imagery (the "choking" attack on "beautiful little babies") to defend a strike against a regime that has done far worse in the past and that he was willing to work with until this point is indefensible. The isolationist that has apparently turned into a neocon overnight.

Interested to hear your conspiracy theory. The neocons forcing Trump's hand I assume? Russia? Even if his hand has been forced, what he's doing is completely inconsistent with his previous stance on Syria and his campaign trail. Also, if they do go forward in attempting to oust Assad won't it just create a power vacuum that could help his #1 enemy? Baffling.

 

[Martino Quackavelli]

Man I do hate conspiracy theories.

 

[Look Out There Are Llamas]

Man I do hate conspiracy theories.

I quite enjoy them, until I realise people actually believe them.

 

[The Eyes of Self Actual]

I am a Trump fan and extremely glad he won the race over Clinton. And still am.

However, he talked about less Middle Eastern wars. Clinton wanted war, not Trump… So I am a little disappointed with this.

I am hoping he’s done what he’s done for a couple of reasons

· Ensure no more chemical attacks
· Embarrass Obama for his useless “red line” comment he made under his Presidency

And that’s the end of it.

He let the Russians know where and when the attack was coming (who would have told the Syrians).

Let’s hope that’s the end of it and Assad is allowed to continue to battle the extremists.

The only worry is if this wasn’t Assad’s forces all the radicals need to do is stage another attack and Trump will be forced to step up his game.

 

[smat]

Maybe he's just a puppet, but his flip-flopping and invocation of emotive imagery (the "choking" attack on "beautiful little babies") to defend a strike against a regime that has done far worse in the past and that he was willing to work with until this point is indefensible. The isolationist that has apparently turned into a neocon overnight.

Interested to hear your conspiracy theory. The neocons forcing Trump's hand I assume? Russia? Even if his hand has been forced, what he's doing is completely inconsistent with his previous stance on Syria and his campaign trail. Also, if they do go forward in attempting to oust Assad won't it just create a power vacuum that could help his #1 enemy? Baffling.

He's a giant, fat baby with no coherent ideology, taking inconsistent, nonsensical positions based on his hysterical, screaming id.

But that's enough about Abertawe.

(Just goofing around, I was talking about the President of the United States).

 

[Abertawe]

Above and beyond that tbh. There are too many stupendously powerful forces that stand to gain a great deal from Assad being toppled for there not to be some question marks.

Saudi conducting their proxy Sunni/Shia battle with their long fought desire to control the Islamic world being in sight. Iran being left on their own. Israel seeing one of their last few enemies ruined and replaced with a "friend". The central bank of Syria not being under control of those that shall be be named. Turkey playing game.

Trump isn't even puppet level. He's owes a great "debt" to them for allowing him to get elected. Without them he wouldn't have gotten anywhere near. His support for Israel is probably the strongest of any potus in recent times. His statements of Shia states exporting terror and threatening Saudi just isn't true. It's the opposite.

There's not a lot to be lost but much to be gained from pinning a chemical attack on Assad. The Russian's aren't a real deterrent. They've no real choice but to accept what happens. So long as their people's aren't harmed they'll play ball.

Even if everything i said is bollox this has been a brilliant power play.

 

[Ian_Wrexham]

Man I do hate conspiracy theories.

Yeah, but sometimes an willingness to avoid conspiracy theories leads to an uncritical acceptance of the dominant narrative.

There are any number of parties in this conflict which have access to, and have probably used, chemical weapon from the Syrian government, regime allied militias, to the Turkish government, to their proxies, al Nusra and their affiliates to ISIS. Obviously a load of people have died from those weapons and the location of the attack would point fingers at the Syrian government or one of its allied militias.

But there doesn't seem to be any evidence (at least, none that is publicly available) that the attack was launched from a Syrian government aircraft, beyond testimony from Al-Nusra affiliates (there was a Guardian article quoting an Ahrar Al Sham spokesman ffs). Given the attack happened near the Turkish border, you'd expect stronger evidence?

 

[Martino Quackavelli]

I'd expect a more unequivocal denial from Syria if they truly had nothing to do with it, rather than this half-hearted 'eh some of our shells might have hit some chemical silos or something' excuse.

Until last night we all thought Trump was a Russian puppet, it's a quick 180 to now accuse him of holding false flag operations against them, especially considering how utterly disjointed the American intelligence apparatus is right now.

 

[.V.]

Presumably Trump will now be happy to let Syrian refugees into the US...

 

[Ian_Wrexham]

I'd expect a more unequivocal denial from Syria if they truly had nothing to do with it, rather than this half-hearted 'eh some of our shells might have hit some chemical silos or something' excuse.

Until last night we all thought Trump was a Russian puppet, it's a quick 180 to now accuse him of holding false flag operations against them, especially considering how utterly disjointed the American intelligence apparatus is right now.

I'd have expected them to offer a more unequivocal denial even if they'd done it tbh. Everyone seems very vague at the moment on what's actually happened, and that seems like a poor time for military escalation.

It seems pretty likely that the Syrian regime or one of their allies did this, but the rush to bomb from the US has nothing to do with justice or accountability and everything to do with wanting to look tough.

I hate this "the international community cannot stand idly by" stuff that accompanies this - because it pretends the international community has been standing idly by, rather than arming and funding the various different parties in the conflict, denying refugees safe passage so putting them in harm's way and selling the chemicals used to produce sarin.

 

[Abertawe]

I'd expect a more unequivocal denial from Syria if they truly had nothing to do with it, rather than this half-hearted 'eh some of our shells might have hit some chemical silos or something' excuse.

Until last night we all thought Trump was a Russian puppet, it's a quick 180 to now accuse him of holding false flag operations against them, especially considering how utterly disjointed the American intelligence apparatus is right now.

I think you place too much importance on The Donald. Those who make the power plays have never been elected in the history of humanity.

 

[NorfolkWomble]

Syria and it's friends haven't denied there was a strike, they've claimed the chemical weapons were in a warehouse that was hit. Analysis has largely shown the strike didn't hit a warehouse, it hit the street, disproving this theory.

I don't think the arguments saying Assad is innocent/being framed are coherent. I do think though that this is easily the first stage in an attempt at regime change. Rubio and other Americans are already calling for a Sunni regime to be installed.

 

[AFCB_Mark]

Interesting article / collection of thoughts regarding US middle eastern policy, and the future of the region post ISIS:

http://foreignpolicy.com/2017/07/10/what-comes-after-isis-islamic-state-mosul-iraq-syria/amp/

 

[Carver]

 

[NorfolkWomble]

no

 

[TheMinsterman]

Tommy Robinson is a well qualified theolog..... oh....