The proper relegation thread.

[Conker]

Er why not Conks? IMO Jolley is an ultra cautious manager in that he focuses too much on the defensive aspect of the game.

Last season he led Grimsby to a goalless draw here at The Abbey and at the time (iirc) we were only one point better off the Mariners. What struck me at the time was that they had 10 men behind the ball all throughout the game. A strange game plan considering we were only a couple of places above them in the table and it seems he was doing the exact same thing at Barrow, or that's the impression I get from their fans on here anyway.

The only thing I'm reading into that Barrow statement is that the club saw such tactics were clearly not working, and they thought they'd better act now. The right thing to do IMO.

“It has become apparent even in such a short space of time that unfortunately the Board and Michael have differing visions for how the team should play, which has led to this change being made,” said Chairman Paul Hornby.

I would recommend any club to do some homework before appointing a manager.

 

[BarraMatt]

“It has become apparent even in such a short space of time that unfortunately the Board and Michael have differing visions for how the team should play, which has led to this change being made,” said Chairman Paul Hornby.

I would recommend any club to do some homework before appointing a manager.

Unfortunately, we've always lacked a footballing brain on the board, and we missed a perfect opportunity to recruit one when we were required have a formal CEO role. That's led to them having the wool pulled over their eyes twice when it's come to appointing managers.

I was guilty of that myself as I did think it was a reasonable appointment at first.

 

[Son of Cod]

I wont feel as bad tomorrow if we drop points against southend if it pushes Grimsby nearer the edge

Good to know we've got the mighty Bolton rattled.

Er why not Conks? IMO Jolley is an ultra cautious manager in that he focuses too much on the defensive aspect of the game.

Last season he led Grimsby to a goalless draw here at The Abbey and at the time (iirc) we were only one point better off the Mariners. What struck me at the time was that they had 10 men behind the ball all throughout the game. A strange game plan considering we were only a couple of places above them in the table and it seems he was doing the exact same thing at Barrow, or that's the impression I get from their fans on here anyway.

The only thing I'm reading into that Barrow statement is that the club saw such tactics were clearly not working, and they thought they'd better act now. The right thing to do IMO.

That's the start of a Jolley masterclass, if the game had have gone for a bit longer you'd have felt the full force just like Swedish giants Malmo did back in 2017.

In all seriousness though, we'd lost four back to back games then. He was probably just trying to get a point.

 

[masi51]

Good to know we've got the mighty Bolton rattled.

That's the start of a Jolley masterclass, if the game had have gone for a bit longer you'd have felt the full force just like Swedish giants Malmo did back in 2017.

In all seriousness though, we'd lost four back to back games then. He was probably just trying to get a point.

good luck for the rest of the season

 

[Son of Cod]

Are we cordially inviting Colchester and Mansfield to the party?

 

[BarraMatt]

Are we cordially inviting Colchester and Mansfield to the party?

Not yet, I sent out invitations a couple of weeks ago to someone (can't remember who) but it was rejected. Better for both our sakes we say nothing.

 

[Son of Cod]

Not yet, I sent out invitations a couple of weeks ago to someone (can't remember who) but it was rejected. Better for both our sakes we say nothing.

How about we get them to stand in the door way but keep their shoes on?

 

[BarraMatt]

How about we get them to stand in the door way but keep their shoes on?

Read a couple of tweets from Stevenage fans last night, they're convinced we will get ahead of them as it's certain we will win all our three games in hand.

 

[Holty10]

Read a couple of tweets from Stevenage fans last night, they're convinced we will get ahead of them as it's certain we will win all our three games in hand.

Do you just have loads of shots from all over or something? Or just generally not getting the results performances deserve.

The few xG tables I have seen have you close to the playoffs. Wondered if it was the quality of chance being misrepresented of just potentially poor finishing/ soft defending.

 

[BarraMatt]

Do you just have loads of shots from all over or something? Or just generally not getting the results performances deserve.

The few xG tables I have seen have you close to the playoffs. Wondered if it was the quality of chance being misrepresented of just potentially poor finishing/ soft defending.

The last point sums us up really. We've lost the majority of our games this season by the odd goal. Plenty of 1-0 defeats where we haven't taken our chances, and we've had a few high scoring games where we've been a disaster at the back. The only times where we've looked solid at the back and threatening up top at the same time have been under Kelly.

He's had 50% of our wins this season in four games, whereas Dunn and Jolley between them managed three in 24!

 

[Conker]

Are we cordially inviting Colchester and Mansfield to the party?

That’s a bit optimistic at this stage isn’t it?

 

[Son of Cod]

That’s a bit optimistic at this stage isn’t it?

Not wildly, you're tanking. A win for us and Barrow a piece and a loss for yourself and Colchester and we're telling Stevenage to sit back down and taking your coats upstairs. We play both of you still and have a game in hand (which as you'll know from reading the Carlisle fans equals three points). Vale's invites are in the post too.

 

[valefan16]

Not wildly, you're tanking. A win for us and Barrow a piece and a loss for yourself and Colchester and we're telling Stevenage to sit back down and taking your coats upstairs. We play both of you still and have a game in hand (which as you'll know from reading the Carlisle fans equals three points). Vale's invites are in the post too.

Hard to see past the bottom three at this stage but you never know. Think we need around 10-12 points to be safe from 16 I’d have thought as that would see the bottom three need around 7 wins or 6 and three draws which looks a big ask based on current form.

Things can change quickly though, Mansfield were flying and talking about maybe a play off campaign and now back in the mixer, on the flip side a good week with a 7-9 point haul and you could be about out of sight.

Our next few games look tough, oddly we finish with runs against fellow strugglers like Grimsby, Mansfield and Barrow so knowing us we will drag it out and make it a humdinger like under Aspin!

I’d imagine bookies would consider it an 80% chance that 2 of the current bottom 3 go down but it’s a funny game.

 

[Conker]

Not wildly, you're tanking. A win for us and Barrow a piece and a loss for yourself and Colchester and we're telling Stevenage to sit back down and taking your coats upstairs. We play both of you still and have a game in hand (which as you'll know from reading the Carlisle fans equals three points). Vale's invites are in the post too.

I think it’s probably two full fixtures early, we are still closer to the play-offs atm!

I’m not saying we could not get dragged back in, it’s just too early. Our form has tanked in the sense it’s gone from 5 wins on the bounce to what it is now, and the last two performances have been concerning but I’m not worried yet.

Another injury or two could see us doing the opposite of Liverpool, playing midfielders upfront, which is my main concern.

 

[Conker]

Hard to see past the bottom three at this stage but you never know. Think we need around 10-12 points to be safe from 16 I’d have thought as that would see the bottom three need around 7 wins or 6 and three draws which looks a big ask based on current form.

Things can change quickly though, Mansfield were flying and talking about maybe a play off campaign and now back in the mixer, on the flip side a good week with a 7-9 point haul and you could be about out of sight.

Our next few games look tough, oddly we finish with runs against fellow strugglers like Grimsby, Mansfield and Barrow so knowing us we will drag it out and make it a humdinger like under Aspin!

I’d imagine bookies would consider it an 80% chance that 2 of the current bottom 3 go down but it’s a funny game.

It was mostly fans of other clubs on here suggesting play-offs, majority of fans, the manager etc have all been clear that they just want to steer clear of relegation.I’ve had to shoot a few down on here for suggesting we could make the play-offs even on our winning streak, we have near zero depth and a lack of quality everywhere bar midfield.

This isn’t the ‘big budget squad’ with big (for L2) names that many are used to Mansfield having.

 

[Vanni]

Yep, it's hard to see past those three sides right now for the simple reason that they just don't win enough games. For the likes of Col U and Boro to be in any real danger you'd need at least two of the bottom three sides to go on a decent run, like picking up a couple of wins on the spin and I just don't see that. Of course one club can go on a little run but two club sat the same time don't seem very likely to me.

 

[Son of Cod]

Hard to see past the bottom three at this stage but you never know. Think we need around 10-12 points to be safe from 16 I’d have thought as that would see the bottom three need around 7 wins or 6 and three draws which looks a big ask based on current form.

Things can change quickly though, Mansfield were flying and talking about maybe a play off campaign and now back in the mixer, on the flip side a good week with a 7-9 point haul and you could be about out of sight.

Our next few games look tough, oddly we finish with runs against fellow strugglers like Grimsby, Mansfield and Barrow so knowing us we will drag it out and make it a humdinger like under Aspin!

I’d imagine bookies would consider it an 80% chance that 2 of the current bottom 3 go down but it’s a funny game.

Yeah there's some potential biggies on the horizon. Looking at our fixtures we're mainly playing promotion/playoff chasing teams and those not safe from here on out.

I think it’s probably two full fixtures early, we are still closer to the play-offs atm!

I’m not saying we could not get dragged back in, it’s just too early. Our form has tanked in the sense it’s gone from 5 wins on the bounce to what it is now, and the last two performances have been concerning but I’m not worried yet.

Another injury or two could see us doing the opposite of Liverpool, playing midfielders upfront, which is my main concern.

11 points off the playoffs and 10 off he drop zone, no? Interesting though, I hadn't even considered a playoff push for us but as they say there's always one team that comes out of nowhere and Hursty loves a playoff. No but seriously, I agree that it's too soon...however I'm just putting it out there that last night's results have made things a little more tetchy for those that thought they were nailed on safe. I think with quality of squad and looking at games in hand, it's probably Stevenage that'll get sucked in if anyone does.

 

[Vanni]

It was mostly fans of other clubs on here suggesting play-offs, majority of fans, the manager etc have all been clear that they just want to steer clear of relegation.I’ve had to shoot a few down on here for suggesting we could make the play-offs even on our winning streak, we have near zero depth and a lack of quality everywhere bar midfield.

This isn’t the ‘big budget squad’ with big (for L2) names that many are used to Mansfield having.

Dunno about that. I need to have a look at SOC's (updated) Year of the Stag box file to be sure you're not pulling the wool over our eyes. That'll take me some time though, I'll probably get distracted by the Corfu bikini pics

 

[Gladders]

Aye too early for the likes of Mansfield, Vale and Colchester. Stevenage are just on the cusp based on number of games played.

Its not beyond the realms of possibility though, stags, scunny, stevenage of the top of my head all went on good runs of 3 or 4 games after a first win for a while. Both us and Barrow won last night, so who knows.

Still think we are down though, I had a bit of belief that we might do something after Newport despite the loss, then weirdly we win last night but wasn't great so now am not so sure!

Our defence still has massive concerns. All three central defenders are not great, Waterfall and Pollock can head a ball but have no pace and Manayese has mistakes in him when the ball is on the ground. I think one of Pollock or Waterfall has to play with Manayese each game though, I don't trust Pollock and Waterfall together, too similiar and no pace, and Newport aside we still aren't creating chances. Leaving us needing luck to not concede and to score ourselves.

 

[Robshep]

Yep, it's hard to see past those three sides right now for the simple reason that they just don't win enough games. For the likes of Col U and Boro to be in any real danger you'd need at least two of the bottom three sides to go on a decent run, like picking up a couple of wins on the spin and I just don't see that. Of course one club can go on a little run but two club sat the same time don't seem very likely to me.

The year we got relegated we picked up 9 points from the last 17 games and got caught by Hartlepool who went on a run that got them from 10 pts adrift to staying up at us and Cheltenham's expense. Colchester seem to be stuck in that kind of slump that happens a lot in this league. Its harder to get out of that kind of rut than it is to string a few wins together when you have nothing to lose.

 

[Vanni]

Yeah Pools looked doomed but somehow managed to stay up. And the following year Newport were some 11 (or 12 points?) adrift in mid March before Flynn took over and steered them to safety, and coincidentally it was Pools who were relegated that season.

 

[Si Robin]

The year Pools stayed up you kind of knew it was only delaying the inevitable for them. All 3 of us deserved to go down that season - they just had their run at the right time. We had ours at the start of the season (leading in September) before falling off a cliff afterwards and then fucking around by employing Paul Chuckle!!!

I forget what happened at Tranmere.

 

[Conker]

Dunno about that. I need to have a look at SOC's (updated) Year of the Stag box file to be sure you're not pulling the wool over our eyes. That'll take me some time though, I'll probably get distracted by the Corfu bikini pics

He got it wrong, the pics are from the beautiful isle of Rhodes.

 

[Robshep]

The year Pools stayed up you kind of knew it was only delaying the inevitable for them. All 3 of us deserved to go down that season - they just had their run at the right time. We had ours at the start of the season (leading in September) before falling off a cliff afterwards and then fucking around by employing Paul Chuckle!!!

I forget what happened at Tranmere.

Micky Adams happened.

 

[Robshep]

Micky Adams happened.

He took over a poor team with poor players and improved them to the point where we got to 17th. He was then given a decent budget in January and somehow managed to sign enough players to make us even worse than when he took over. I don't think we scored a goal in the last 4 or 5 home games. We got better.

 

[dedwardp]

I know I've been saying on here for ages that we were incredibly fortunate to be as high as we were (sixth as late as mid-December!) and that results have simply caught up with performances, whilst also suggesting we could be the side that drops like a stone out of nowhere, but I do still think we'll just about be ok.

As alluded to above, there is still a reasonable cushion. We have to play all of the bottom three and if we were to lose them all, say, then that would be disastrous - but I really don't think we will, particularly with two of them at home. Plus we've been on such a terrible run that we're bound to pick up a surprise win or two soon from somewhere and the gap would grow again.

Next week we have Carlisle and Newport, both at home. Newport's form is almost as bad as us before tonight, and Carlisle are supposed to be knackered now so I'd like to think we can end the winless run next week.

 

[jacobncfc]

Looking like some win for Southend at Forest Green. It’s amazing how the teams at the bottom of League Two seem to start winning around this time of the season every single year.

 

[Shrimper92]

Oh to bring Colchester into it..

 

[Son of Cod]

The year we got relegated we picked up 9 points from the last 17 games and got caught by Hartlepool who went on a run that got them from 10 pts adrift to staying up at us and Cheltenham's expense. Colchester seem to be stuck in that kind of slump that happens a lot in this league. Its harder to get out of that kind of rut than it is to string a few wins together when you have nothing to lose.

Interesting idea that, I'm gonna have a look at what our form was the season we went down and also the scrapes we've had. Workload tomorrow dependent. Currently snowed under analysing Cambridge hoofing and the Tranmere budget.

Looking like some win for Southend at Forest Green. It’s amazing how the teams at the bottom of League Two seem to start winning around this time of the season every single year.

The Martin Allen effect. Usually ends in a Lincolnshire/East Mids team going down.

 

[Gladders]

Thought we could have some stats like the top 7 thread. Took 34 pts as cut off mainly because Stevenage are there and catchable due to game in hand! Shows what they will finish on if based on PPG so far this season and if they maintain the last 8 games form for rest of season.

Team	Current Points​	Played​	PPG finish​	Last 8 PPG finish​
Port Vale	34​	30​	52 (+18)​	52 (+18)​
Mansfield	34​	29​	54 (+20)​	57 (+23)​
Stevenage	34​	31​	51 (+17)​	57 (+23)​
Colchester	33​	29​	52 (+19)​	42 (+09)​
Southend	27​	30​	41 (+14)​	41 (+14)​
Barrow	26​	28​	43 (+17)​	42 (+16)​
Grimsby	24​	28​	40 (+16)​	35 (+11)​

Stevenage and Mansfield currently on the best form for last 8, however stags have now not won in 5 so that will drop. Grimsby are doomed, unless form picks up quick, and Colchester needed to sack their manager because any longer and they are about to be dragged into it based on form despite the 7 point gap.