The Real League Two Table 15/16

[StagsForLife]

Thought we should get this started.

108 - Guaranteed Champions
107
106
105
104 - Guaranteed Promotion
103 - Predicted Champions
102
101
100
99
98
97
96 - Guaranteed Playoffs
95
94 - Champions 2015
93 - Champions 2012
92
91
90
89
88
87
86 - Champions 2011
85 - Promotion 2015
84 - Champions 2014, Promotion 2012 : Predicted Promotion
83 - Champions 2013
82
81 - Promotion 2014
80 - Promotion 2011
79
78 - Promotion 2013
77
76
75
74
73 - Guaranteed Safety
72 - Playoffs 2012
71 - Playoffs 2014, Playoffs 2015
70
69 - Playoffs 2013 : Predicted Playoffs
68 - Playoffs 2011
67 - Northampton
66
65
64
63
62
61
60
59 - Plymouth
58
57
56
55 - Oxford
54
53
52
51 - Safety 2013
50 - Safety 2014
49 - Wycombe, Accrington
48 - Safety 2011 : Mansfield, Portsmouth
47 - Bristol Rovers
46 - Safety 2012 : Leyton Orient
45 - Safety 2015 : Wimbledon
44 - Cambridge
43 - Carlisle
42
41
40 - Predicted Safety : Exeter
39 - Notts County
38 - Luton
37 - Crawley
36 - Barnet, Morecambe
35
34 - Stevenage
33
32
31
30 - Newport
29
28
27 - Hartlepool
26 - York
25
24 - Yeovil
23
22
21
20 - Dag & Red

Guaranteed positions are worked out as position below ( for top = 2nd place current points + maximum available points + 1)
Predicted is based on teams in current positions average.
Teams playing each other have not been taken into account.

Are Dagenham already gone or could they get themselves out of it?

 

[EricSabin]

103 points, I'd take that!!

 

[Vanni]

I'm curious to find out how many points sides need to make the P'O's this year. The reason is that I've seen so many numbers quoted -ranging from 65 to 80 - on this site and others. I personally think it will be a high number, probably more than the 71 that was needed for the last couple of seasons.

 

[AdamStag]

Portsmouth Leyton orient and Bristol rovers are my yardstick, they are going along at an average of 1.566 points per game between them on average given ones played 29, one 30 and one 31 and they're separated by 2 points.

On that current rate 72 is the tally required for 7th

 

[Carver]

Is it possible to finish with 95 points and not be guaranteed a play off place?

 

[mowgli]

I'm curious to find out how many points sides need to make the P'O's this year. The reason is that I've seen so many numbers quoted -ranging from 65 to 80 - on this site and others. I personally think it will be a high number, probably more than the 71 that was needed for the last couple of seasons.

We had 84 points last season but still only finished 4th.

 

[StagsForLife]

Is it possible to finish with 95 points and not be guaranteed a play off place?

That's just based on the maximum points 8th place can get plus 1 point. As there are games in hand to play that marker will fluctuate. 95 points will get you promoted of course if not champions.

 

[Wombling Kiwi]

40 seems low for predicted safety.

 

[Kenneth E End]

Yippeeeee... we're safe!

 

[StagsForLife]

40 seems low for predicted safety.

It's worked out via 22nd positions current point to game ratio this season which by the way it's going might be right.

Will update the table later today.

 

[StagsForLife]

Updated Table 21/02/2016

106 - Guaranteed Champions
105
104 - Guaranteed Promotion, Predicted Champions
103
102
101
100
99
98
97
96
95 - Guaranteed Playoffs
94 - Champions 2015
93 - Champions 2012
92
91
90
89
88
87
86 - Champions 2011
85 - Promotion 2015
84 - Champions 2014, Promotion 2012
83 - Champions 2013
82 - Predicted Promotion
81 - Promotion 2014
80 - Promotion 2011
79
78 - Promotion 2013
77
76
75 - Predicted Playoffs
74
73
72 - Playoffs 2012
71 - Playoffs 2014, Playoffs 2015 : Guaranteed Safety
70 - Northampton
69 - Playoffs 2013
68 - Playoffs 2011
67
66
65
64
63
62
61
60 - Plymouth
59
58
57
56
55 - Oxford
54
53
52 - Accrington
51 - Safety 2013 : Mansfield
50 - Safety 2014 : Bristol Rovers
49 - Portsmouth, Wycombe, Leyton Orient
48 - Safety 2011 : Wimbledon
47 - Cambridge
46 - Safety 2012 : Carlisle
45 - Safety 2015
44
43
42
41 - Luton, Exeter
40
39 - Predicted Safety : Notts County
38 - Crawley
37
36 - Morecambe, Barnet
35
34 - Stevenage
33
32
31 - Newport
30
29
28
27 - Hartlepool
26 - York
25 - Yeovil
24
23
22
21
20 - Dag & Red

 

[StagsForLife]

Updated 24/02/2016
105 - Predicted Champions
104
103 - Guaranteed Champions, Guaranteed Promotion
102
101
100
99
98
97
96
95
94 - Champions 2015 : Guaranteed Playoffs
93 - Champions 2012
92
91
90
89
88
87
86 - Champions 2011
85 - Promotion 2015
84 - Champions 2014, Promotion 2012
83 - Champions 2013 : Predicted Promotion
82
81 - Promotion 2014
80 - Promotion 2011
79
78 - Promotion 2013
77
76
75
74 - Predicted Playoffs
73 - Northampton
72 - Playoffs 2012
71 - Playoffs 2014, Playoffs 2015
70
69 - Playoffs 2013
68 - Playoffs 2011 : Guaranteed Safety
67
66
65
64
63
62
61 - Plymouth
60
59
58 - Oxford
57
56
55 - Accrington
54
53
52
51 - Safety 2013 : Wimbledon, Mansfield
50 - Safety 2014 : Bristol Rovers
49 - Portsmouth, Wycombe, Leyton Orient
48 - Safety 2011
47 - Cambridge
46 - Safety 2012 : Carlisle
45 - Safety 2015
44
43
42
41 - Luton, Exeter
40
39 - Barnet, Notts County
38 - Crawley
37 - Predicted Safety
36 - Morecambe
35
34 - Stevenage
33
32
31 - Newport
30
29
28
27 - Hartlepool
26 - Yeovil, York
25
24
23
22
21
20 - Dag & Red

 

[EricSabin]

12 points from 14 games for 85 points.

 

[Wombling Kiwi]

Hi, Stags, can you keep updating this, it is one of the best threads each year. Cheers Kiwi

 

[StagsForLife]

Hi, Stags, can you keep updating this, it is one of the best threads each year. Cheers Kiwi

Yeah will get around to it today mate, been busy this week so haven't got round to it.

 

[StagsForLife]

Updated 3/03/2016
101 - Predicted Champions
100 - Guaranteed Champions
99
98 - Guaranteed Promotion
97
96
95
94 - Champions 2015
93 - Champions 2012
92
91 - Guaranteed Playoffs
90
89
88
87 - Predicted Promotion
86 - Champions 2011
85 - Promotion 2015
84 - Champions 2014, Promotion 2012
83 - Champions 2013
82
81 - Promotion 2014
80 - Promotion 2011
79
78 - Promotion 2013
77
76
75 - Northampton
74
73
72 - Playoffs 2012 : Predicted Playoffs
71 - Playoffs 2014, Playoffs 2015
70
69 - Playoffs 2013
68 - Playoffs 2011
67
66
65
64 - Oxford, Plymouth
63
62 - Guaranteed Safety
61
60
59
58
57
56 - Accrington
55
54
53 - Portsmouth, Bristol Rovers, Leyton Orient
52 - Wimbledon, Wycombe
51 - Safety 2013 : Mansfield
50 - Safety 2014 : Carlisle, Cambridge
49
48 - Safety 2011
47 - Luton
46 - Safety 2012
45 - Safety 2015 : Exeter
44
43 - Barnet
42 - Predicted Safety
41 - Crawley
40 - Notts County
39
38
37
36 - Morecambe
35
34 - Newport, Stevenage
33
32 - Yeovil
31
30
29
28 - Hartlepool
27
26 - York
25
24
23
22
21 - Dag & Red

 

[daviejones]

Christ, Dagenham look well out of it as it stands. They need almost as many points to get to safety as we need to get to the play offs and I've been saying the latter is unlikely for a little while now.

 

[StagsForLife]

This will be updated later today.

 

[StagsForLife]

Updated 7/03/2016
103 - Predicted Champions
102
101
100
99 - Guaranteed Champions
98
97 - Guaranteed Promotion
96
95
94 - Champions 2015
93 - Champions 2012
92
91
90
89
88
87 - Guaranteed Playoffs
86 - Champions 2011
85 - Promotion 2015 : Predicted Promotion
84 - Champions 2014, Promotion 2012
83 - Champions 2013
82
81 - Promotion 2014
80 - Promotion 2011
79
78 - Promotion 2013 : Northampton
77
76
75
74
73
72 - Playoffs 2012 : Predicted Playoffs
71 - Playoffs 2014, Playoffs 2015
70
69 - Playoffs 2013
68 - Playoffs 2011
67
66
65 - Oxford, Plymouth
64
63
62
61
60 - Guaranteed Safety
59
58
57 - Accrington
56 - Portsmouth, Bristol Rovers
55
54
53 - Wimbledon, Leyton Orient
52 - Wycombe
51 - Safety 2013 : Mansfield
50 - Safety 2014 : Carlisle, Luton, Cambridge
49
48 - Safety 2011 : Exeter
47
46 - Safety 2012
45 - Safety 2015 : Predicted Safety
44
43 - Barnet
42 - Crawley
41
40 - Notts County
39
38
37 - Morecambe, Newport
36
35 - Yeovil
34 - Stevenage
33
32
31 - Hartlepool
30
29
28
27
26 - York
25
24 - Dag & Red

 

[Deepcut Cobbler]

There are quite a few below that 'predicted safety'...

 

[StagsForLife]

Will update this tomorrow morning.

 

[StagsForLife]

Updated 11/03/2016
103 - Predicted Champions
102
101
100
99 - Guaranteed Champions
98
97
96
95
94 - Champions 2015
93 - Champions 2012 : Guaranteed Promotion
92
91
90
89
88
87 - Guaranteed Playoffs
86 - Champions 2011
85 - Promotion 2015 : Predicted Promotion
84 - Champions 2014, Promotion 2012
83 - Champions 2013
82
81 - Promotion 2014
80 - Promotion 2011
79
78 - Promotion 2013 : Northampton
77
76
75
74
73
72 - Playoffs 2012
71 - Playoffs 2014, Playoffs 2015
70 - Predicted Playoffs
69 - Playoffs 2013
68 - Playoffs 2011
67
66
65 - Oxford, Plymouth
64
63
62
61
60 - Guaranteed Safety
59 - Portsmouth, Bristol Rovers
58
57 - Accrington
56
55
54
53 - Wimbledon, Leyton Orient
52 - Wycombe
51 - Safety 2013 : Mansfield, Carlisle
50 - Safety 2014 : Luton, Cambridge
49
48 - Safety 2011 : Exeter
47
46 - Safety 2012 : Barnet
45 - Safety 2015 : Predicted Safety
44
43
42 - Crawley
41
40 - Notts County
39
38
37 - Morecambe, Newport
36
35 - Yeovil
34 - Stevenage
33
32
31 - Hartlepool
30
29
28
27
26 - York
25 - Dag & Red

 

[StagsForLife]

Updated 14/03/2016
101 - Predicted Champions
100
99
98
97
96 - Guaranteed Champions
95
94 - Champions 2015
93 - Champions 2012 : Guaranteed Promotion
92
91
90
89 - Guaranteed Playoffs
88
87
86 - Champions 2011
85 - Promotion 2015
84 - Champions 2014, Promotion 2012
83 - Champions 2013 : Predicted Promotion
82
81 - Promotion 2014
80 - Promotion 2011
79 - Northampton
78 - Promotion 2013
77
76
75
74
73
72 - Playoffs 2012 : Predicted Playoffs
71 - Playoffs 2014, Playoffs 2015
70
69 - Playoffs 2013
68 - Playoffs 2011
67
66
65 - Oxford, Plymouth
64
63
62 - Bristol Rovers
61
60 - Accrington
59 - Portsmouth
58 - Guaranteed Safety
57
56 - Leyton Orient
55 - Wycombe
54
53 - Wimbledon
52 - Carlisle
51 - Safety 2013 : Mansfield, Cambridge
50 - Safety 2014 : Luton
49 - Exeter
48 - Safety 2011
47 - Predicted Safety : Barnet
46 - Safety 2012
45 - Safety 2015 : Crawley
44
43
42
41
40 - Morecambe, Newport, Notts County
39
38 - Yeovil
37
36
35
34 - Stevenage, Hartlepool
33
32
31
30
29
28
27 - York
26
25 - Dag & Red

 

[Gashead]

Amazed how high predicted safety is given how few points the two at the bottom are on.

 

[StagsForLife]

Amazed how high predicted safety is given how few points the two at the bottom are on.

Predicted safety is calculated on 22nd position rather than 23rd, it is to show what the bottom two would need to achieve to try and stay up.

 

[Gashead]

Predicted safety is calculated on 22nd position rather than 23rd, it is to show what the bottom two would need to achieve to try and stay up.

Makes sense, silly me!

 

[BeesKnees]

Once all the games are played then safety last year was 42 points and not 45 however I look at it, so I prefer predicted safety to be one more than the bottom two are likely to achieve or it gives a false value for how many points those just outside relegation need to be safe.

 

[StagsForLife]

Updated 17/03/2016
101 - Predicted Champions
100
99
98
97
96 - Guaranteed Champions
95
94 - Champions 2015
93 - Champions 2012 : Guaranteed Promotion
92
91
90
89
88
87 - Guaranteed Playoffs
86 - Champions 2011
85 - Promotion 2015
84 - Champions 2014, Promotion 2012
83 - Champions 2013 : Predicted Promotion
82
81 - Promotion 2014
80 - Promotion 2011
79 - Northampton
78 - Promotion 2013
77
76
75
74
73
72 - Playoffs 2012 : Predicted Playoffs
71 - Playoffs 2014, Playoffs 2015
70
69 - Playoffs 2013
68 - Playoffs 2011 : Oxford
67
66
65 - Plymouth
64
63
62 - Bristol Rovers
61 - Accrington
60
59 - Portsmouth
58 - Guaranteed Safety
57
56 - Wycombe, Leyton Orient
55
54
53 - Wimbledon
52 - Carlisle
51 - Safety 2013 : Mansfield, Cambridge
50 - Safety 2014 : Luton
49 - Exeter
48 - Safety 2011
47 - Barnet
46 - Safety 2012
45 - Safety 2015 : Crawley
44
43 - Predicted Safety
42
41 - Newport
40 - Morecambe, Notts County
39
38 - Yeovil
37
36
35 - Hartlepool
34 - Stevenage
33
32
31
30
29
28
27 - York
26
25 - Dag & Red

 

[Robie]

How are you predicting the promotion level?

My table says with teams continuing as they have done all season the points required would be 80 and with their current last 8 games form it would be 78.

 

[StagsForLife]

How are you predicting the promotion level?

My table says with teams continuing as they have done all season the points required would be 80 and with their current last 8 games form it would be 78.

It is a basic prediction for 3rd place. It is calculated on what 3rd place currently has which is 65 divided by games played 36 times total games 46 which comes out at 83 if 3rd place kept their PPG like that. It isn't based on what be enough for promotion rather what the predicted points tally for 3rd will be. That's how this table has been run in the past.

The way the table is created -
Guaranteed positions are worked out as position below ( for top = 2nd place current points + maximum available points + 1)
Predicted is based on teams in current positions average.
Teams playing each other have not been taken into account.