Match Day The Wyvern Derby - Carlisle v L'Orient

[Look Out There Are Llamas]

Although today the God's have conspired to give me another day off. But the chances of me going to Carlisle are 0, although I do have more of an interest in this game than most

 

[daviejones]

Looks like we've gone for a 5-4-1/3-6-1 formation, Lambe dropped for some reason. Devitt and Miller start together.

 

[Look Out There Are Llamas]

Was trying to work out Carlisle's formation, I'm guessing:

Miller
Devitt - Adams
Grainger - Jones - Joyce - Miller
Gillesphey - Raynes - Ellis
Gillespie
​

If so I like it, compact, doesn't give Cornick and Massey the space to do damage.

Orient are:

McCallum - Bowery
Massey - Weir - Kelly - Cornick
Kennedy - Parkes - Erichot - Hunt
Cisak
​

Completely didn't notice before that Carlisle have Shaun Miller. Good player.

 

[daviejones]

Was trying to work out Carlisle's formation, I'm guessing:

Miller
Devitt - Adams
Grainger - Jones - Joyce - Miller
Gillesphey - Raynes - Ellis
Gillespie​

Something like that, but with Grainger and Miller dropping into defence when needed and Devitt and Adams dropping deeper to help out. Adams will be on the left as well I think, Devitt right. Same formation we played against Derby and that one went pretty well.

 

[Look Out There Are Llamas]

Adams on the left would make more sense, would fancy him to do damage against Hunt when pulling wide.

Infact if Grainger joins him for a double team, I can see Carlisle causing a lot of damage down that side. Don't rate Erichot in the slightest either. No awareness.

 

[daviejones]

He's been our best player so far alongside Jones. Miller best have his shooting boots on today, plenty of assists in the midfield if the strikers decide to start scoring.

 

[Look Out There Are Llamas]

How's Devitt been doing? If you've had enough time to judge due to the red.

 

[daviejones]

He had a bit of a break after the red even once he was available again. Since then he's not had too much of a mention due to the performances of Adams, Jones and others, playing well though and I'd expect him to come into his stride in the next couple of weeks as he's now had a good run of games. Hopefully today's his day.

 

[Son of Cod]

Dragons, aren't they?

 

[hellogregory]

15 minutes in, feels like an hour.

Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

Trying to watch us score a goal is like watching paint dry

 

[daviejones]

First loss of the season on its way

 

[hellogregory]

Well that half was absolutely fucking dire.

I think some of our fans need to get their heads out of the clouds here if they think this shower of shit is capable of getting promoted. To do that you have to actually be some form of an attacking threat, but we are pathetic.

Again plenty of possession, but absolutely zero threat. They've looked more threat and got a goal with a decent bit of play, we have nothing, absolutely nothing.

People keep saying oh the goals will come it's just a matter of time etc, but to me we're getting no closer and if anything getting worse.

At this stage a point would be a miracle from this game, but even that would be yet another 2 points spunked at home. I'm still sticking to my 0-2 prediction.

 

[daviejones]

Lambe and Wyke coming on. Wish we'd started with Lambe, it's all good having assists in the side but we need people to finish chances, Adams and Devitt didn't get too many goals last season.

Also think Curle is still figuring out his best team, he doesn't know which striker to favour and we've got three good wingers trying for two spots. For me Lambe should be the first choice out of the three having shown he can score goals.

 

[daviejones]

Not a bad start!!

 

[hellogregory]

Good point in the end, but second half performance was probably even worse. We looked a really shit team today for the first time this season.

I know I'm pessimistic but honestly can't see this team making the top 7

 

[daviejones]

If we can remain in and around the top 7 through the next month then we've got a much easier run from the end of October until the end of December. Only 4 points off the top still and we remain unbeaten.

Hopefully JP asks about Reid at some point in this interview.

 

[cufc17]

Worst performance I've seen from us this season, but still edged the game. I don't think we should've changed formation from last week, looked more like last season with lots of possession.

Like last week, the only real positive is we remain unbeaten, but two wins and five draws isn't great going.

I thought our defence was very poor for both Orient goals, stood off players and let them carve the chances.

Oh well, onto Blackpool and hopefully three points.

 

[daviejones]

Blackpool is a big one now, win and we'll be right back on track but you can sense some fans are starting to get frustrated and a loss would tip them over the edge.

 

[hellogregory]

I've no idea how we'll set up at Blackpool. Really id like to see us set up as we did at Barnet with the 3 wingers/attack mids behind the striker, but fear we'll start 4-4-2 with Joyce and Jones in the centre. This for me is a mistake, there isn't much attacking threat from these 2 which makes us predictable as in we can only go down the sides or long ball up to the striker.

I'm not confident at all, I think we're seriously lacking in certain areas and ultimately come May there will be at least 7 better teams that will comfortably finish above us.

 

[shoddycollins]

I've no idea how we'll set up at Blackpool. Really id like to see us set up as we did at Barnet with the 3 wingers/attack mids behind the striker, but fear we'll start 4-4-2 with Joyce and Jones in the centre. This for me is a mistake, there isn't much attacking threat from these 2 which makes us predictable as in we can only go down the sides or long ball up to the striker.

I'm not confident at all, I think we're seriously lacking in certain areas and ultimately come May there will be at least 7 better teams that will comfortably finish above us.

I think Jones brings it quite far forward actually.

 

[hellogregory]

I think Jones brings it quite far forward actually.

Maybe on occasions, but he is predominantly a sitting midfielder, where as if you put someone like Kennedy alongside him he will make runs forward into the box and get on the end of things, as he did against Cheltenham.

I actually would like to see us try a 4-1-3-2 at home some time, then maybe change it once we're a couple of goals ahead

So maybe

Gillespie
Miller Raynes Gillesphey Grainger
Jones
Lambe Devitt Adams
Wyke Miller
​

Adams and Lambe would have to be switched on defensively but I reckon we'd score loads.

 

[Look Out There Are Llamas]

Just seen Cornick's goal. If we keep him beyond January I'll be absolutely amazed. Then we'll look good getting rid of Cox...

 

[The Terminator]

For what it is worth I thought Carlisle were the best side I'd seen this season, they kept the ball very well and for the first 30mins had the majority of the play and could've - probably should've been leading.

However, once Adams hit the post we managed to settle down and find a similar ryhthem to our passing and for the final 15mins of the first half looked a good side, we scored a well worked goal through McCallum - Although question marks on the Carlisle's centre backs.

Second half despite Carlisle scoring the first goal (from our perspective, again far far too casual at the start of the half) and Cisak saving from Adams and Cornick scoring I thought both sides cancelled each other out, although Tom Parkes made a good block shortly before we took the lead.

Cornicks goal was a superb individual effort, but if my teams defence had allowed him to do what he did, I'd be halfway onto the pitch asking them what the hell they were doing.

Penalty was stonewall.

Both teams very similar I thought, both trying to get keep the ball and pass it - Carlisle looked alot better at it than ourselves though - But very, very shakey at the back, we cannot keep a clean sheet FFS, only one all season so far. I was happy with a draw, but it gets frustrating as we rely too heavily on needing to kill teams off quickly to win games far, far too much.

I was amazed Raynes got MOTM, Adams was Carlisle best player, I wouldn't take Raynes for £100k though

 

[daviejones]

For what it is worth I thought Carlisle were the best side I'd seen this season, they kept the ball very well and for the first 30mins had the majority of the play and could've - probably should've been leading.

However, once Adams hit the post we managed to settle down and find a similar ryhthem to our passing and for the final 15mins of the first half looked a good side, we scored a well worked goal through McCallum - Although question marks on the Carlisle's centre backs.

Second half despite Carlisle scoring the first goal (from our perspective, again far far too casual at the start of the half) and Cisak saving from Adams and Cornick scoring I thought both sides cancelled each other out, although Tom Parkes made a good block shortly before we took the lead.

Cornicks goal was a superb individual effort, but if my teams defence had allowed him to do what he did, I'd be halfway onto the pitch asking them what the hell they were doing.

Penalty was stonewall.

Both teams very similar I thought, both trying to get keep the ball and pass it - Carlisle looked alot better at it than ourselves though - But very, very shakey at the back, we cannot keep a clean sheet FFS, only one all season so far. I was happy with a draw, but it gets frustrating as we rely too heavily on needing to kill teams off quickly to win games far, far too much.

I was amazed Raynes got MOTM, Adams was Carlisle best player, I wouldn't take Raynes for £100k though

I'm not sure what the Raynes rumour was about or who started it. He's said he never wanted to go, Curle never wanted him to go and there were no official bids for him. He certainly isn't worth £100k to anyone else but, given how late in the window it was, I wouldn't have been too pleased if he'd gone even if it was 6 figures.

 

[hellogregory]

Adams already has a few man or the match watches. Probably just a case of wanting someone else to get a watch for a change.

That said I didn't think Adams was great today by his standards, gave the ball away a few too many times. Could have had 2 goals (post and a good save) but other than that I didn't think he did an awful lot.

All in all we were poor today. I'm surprised we're the best team you've faced.

 

[E10rifle]

All in all we were poor today. I'm surprised we're the best team you've faced.

To be fair we've only played Cheltenham, Grimsby, Morecambe, Newport, Mansfield and Stevenage so far, all of whom were varying degrees of dogshit. You didn't have much to beat. Yeovil next week as well. That'll be a fun 1-0 loss.

 

[shoddycollins]

Cornicks goal was a superb individual effort, but if my teams defence had allowed him to do what he did, I'd be halfway onto the pitch asking them what the hell they were doing.

Yep, about ten seconds before he finally scored I was moaning about whether anyone was going to tackle him. Seeing it on TV showed it more as a moment of individual skill but there was still a certain about of defensive incompetence. If he'd wanted he could have got his phone out and put a quick in-play bet on himself to score before he put it away.

We have Brisley to come back though and hopefully he should become our most influential centre back. Raynes isn't really a tackler, Ellis pulled off a couple of good tackles today but I rarely see Raynes tackle anyone, he does have much better games that that, but usually through winning it in the air and blocking shots and intercepting and other defensive stuff he's good at that doesn't involve tackling. I think though, both goals came from Gillesphey's area.

The penalty was fortunate from our perspective as an Orient defensive error such as that felt like the only way we would score. Lambe's was a decent cross but we'll never know if it would have found someone in the area, and even if it did there would be a good chance of it getting blasted over. You could see how furious the player who handled it was with himself.

Both teams tried to pass it and had good spells of possession but I guess overall too few chances were created from either side. I'd be interested to know the Orient fans' perspectives on our inability to score.

 

[shoddycollins]

Experimental 3-6-1's assessment of the game.

For those that don't follow it, expected goals is basically an alternative to using shots on/off target as a measure of the game, since not all shots are the same. Instead each shot is given an expected goals value, based on how likely that type of shot taken from that part of the pitch is to result in a goal. So for example, if one out of every 20 headed shots from the side of the area result in a goal, then that type of shot would be worth 0.05 expected goals.

It doesn't take into account things like positions of defenders, or occasions where a striker failed to connect with the ball and get a shot in. In theory this is the number of goals an average team creating those chances would score. Differences between expected and actual goals are down to either luck, or the ability/lack of ability to score/stop shots.

I had a look at our other games this season and as expected, the only time we scored more than we created was against Portsmouth, and that was skewed by the fact we spent most of the match with 10 men (but still had 11 at the time we scored). In every other game we have created more chances than we have scored. This pretty much sums up our season, we create loads of good chances to score... and yet don't. I don't know how we compare with other teams in this respect though.

I'm surprised though Orient, apparently created so few quality chances, seemed more even to me, but as I say it only rates shots based on where they were taken from and what type of shot it was.

 

[The Terminator]

Yep, about ten seconds before he finally scored I was moaning about whether anyone was going to tackle him. Seeing it on TV showed it more as a moment of individual skill but there was still a certain about of defensive incompetence. If he'd wanted he could have got his phone out and put a quick in-play bet on himself to score before he put it away.

We have Brisley to come back though and hopefully he should become our most influential centre back. Raynes isn't really a tackler, Ellis pulled off a couple of good tackles today but I rarely see Raynes tackle anyone, he does have much better games that that, but usually through winning it in the air and blocking shots and intercepting and other defensive stuff he's good at that doesn't involve tackling. I think though, both goals came from Gillesphey's area.

The penalty was fortunate from our perspective as an Orient defensive error such as that felt like the only way we would score. Lambe's was a decent cross but we'll never know if it would have found someone in the area, and even if it did there would be a good chance of it getting blasted over. You could see how furious the player who handled it was with himself.

Both teams tried to pass it and had good spells of possession but I guess overall too few chances were created from either side. I'd be interested to know the Orient fans' perspectives on our inability to score.

Suprised Wyke didn't start for you myself, Miller has always struck me as inconsistent and a bit injury prone. Jabo is Jabo!

 

[shoddycollins]

Suprised Wyke didn't start for you myself, Miller has always struck me as inconsistent and a bit injury prone. Jabo is Jabo!

I bumped into Jabo* in the hotel I presume he was staying in about a month ago, spent ten minutes having a nice chat.

*or as Tommy Cassidy calls him whenever he's on BBCRC - 'Ibbahearay'