Top 6/Promotion Thread

[YEO YEO YEO]

Thought i'd update this again ...


I've looked at points since 2009-2010 (excluding covid season) to look at how many points will see you as champions, gain automatic promotion and also playoffs. This is not necessarily the figure teams ended with, but what is required. E.g. Plymouth were champions last season on 101, Ipswich in 2nd on 98, therefore 99 would have secured the top spot.

I've popped next to each team their season PPG figure, and last 10 form too.

Using the same format as League two...
91 - Average Champions
90 - Predicted Champions
89 -
88 - Predicted Automatic
87 - Average Automatic Portsmouth (41) [Season PPG - 97, Last 10 PPG - 99]
86 -
85 -
84 -
83 -
82 - Derby (42) [Season PPG - 89, Last 10 PPG - 89]
81 -
80 -
79 -
78 - Bolton (41) [Season PPG - 87, Last 10 PPG - 86]
77 -
76 -
75 - Predicted Playoffs
74 - Peterborough (40) [Season PPG - 85, Last 10 PPG - 84],
Barnsley (40) [Season PPG - 85, Last 10 PPG - 84]
73 -
72 - Average Playoffs
71 -
70 -
69 -
68 -
67 - Lincoln (41) [Season PPG - 75, Last 10 PPG - 80],
Oxford (41) [Season PPG - 75, Last 10 PPG - 74]
66 -
65 -
64 - Stevenage (41) [Season PPG - 71, Last 10 PPG - 69]
63 -
62 -
61 - Blackpool (41) [Season PPG - 68, Last 10 PPG - 68]

Based on Season PPG:
Portsmouth - 97
Derby - 89
-----------------------------
Bolton - 87
Peterborough - 85
Barnsley - 85
Lincoln - 75
-----------------------------
Oxford - 75
Stevenage - 71
Blackpool - 68

Based on last 10 PPG:
Portsmouth - 99
Derby - 89
-------------------------------
Bolton - 86
Peterborough - 84
Barnsley - 84
Lincoln - 80
-------------------------------
Oxford - 74
Stevenage - 69
Blackpool - 68

 

[YEO YEO YEO]

Top 3 remaining fixtures:
Portsmouth
Shrewsbury (H)
Bolton (A)
Barnsley (H)
Wigan (H)
Lincoln (A)

Derby
Wycombe (A)
Leyton Orient (H)
Cambridge (A)
Carlisle (H)

Bolton
Bristol Rovers (A)
Portsmouth (H)
Shrewsbury (H)
Port Vale (H)
Peterborough (A)

 

[Super_horns]

Pompey probably only need 5’points or so.

Feel Bolton will need to beat Portsmouth as I can see both them and Derby winning the rest of the games .

 

[folletto]

Interesting that extrapolating Jones' points from the last 10 games (I've excluded his first game which was a loss to Reading which is kind of cheating but he didn't really have much time with the team) to a whole season would see us finish above the average playoff mark. Although things have improved drastically, we still like nothing like a playoff side.

 

[K-Win]

Interesting that extrapolating Jones' points from the last 10 games (I've excluded his first game which was a loss to Reading which is kind of cheating but he didn't really have much time with the team) to a whole season would see us finish above the average playoff mark. Although things have improved drastically, we still like nothing like a playoff side.

Don't think you ever need to be that great to get into the playoffs, just reasonably consistent. We were very ordinary under Kenny Jackett but easily reached the playoffs twice.

 

[masi51]

Pompey probably only need 5’points or so.

Feel Bolton will need to beat Portsmouth as I can see both them and Derby winning the rest of the games .

Every chance we could have 5/6 players back this week-end which would make us a lot stronger......Downside they wont be match fit

 

[GeneralLee]

Don't think you ever need to be that great to get into the playoffs, just reasonably consistent. We were very ordinary under Kenny Jackett but easily reached the playoffs twice.

I'd agree with that. The division is typically 2-3 stand out sides, the rest of the play-off pack barring one or two (ourselves included who are way off it but might make it), the next few sides and then everything below 10th are either inconsistent and/or poor.

 

[masi51]

Pompey probably only need 5’points or so.

Feel Bolton will need to beat Portsmouth as I can see both them and Derby winning the rest of the games .

strangely confident about beating Portsmouth....They could be up by then.
Saturday against Bristol Rovers and the last game against Posh could be our downfall......I think come May us and not Lincoln will be the team hitting top form basically with the number of players due back

 

[Millerbri]

strangely confident about beating Portsmouth....They could be up by then.
Saturday against Bristol Rovers and the last game against Posh could be our downfall......I think come May us and not Lincoln will be the team hitting top form basically with the number of players due back

It doesn't make any difference what players you get back or what form you are in, because when we come down it's the law that Barnsley go up and vice versa.
Sorry!

 

[masi51]

It doesn't make any difference what players you get back or what form you are in, because when we come down it's the law that Barnsley go up and vice versa.
Sorry!

Kind of a bogey team....I cannot disagree

 

[Don Tonberry]

strangely confident about beating Portsmouth....They could be up by then.
Saturday against Bristol Rovers and the last game against Posh could be our downfall......I think come May us and not Lincoln will be the team hitting top form basically with the number of players due back

We can't mathematically be promoted before we go to yours, but if we beat Shrewsbury on Saturday then we would confirm promotion with a win at your place. We could even be crowned champions then if Derby fail to win both of their next two games.

 

[Pompeyblueboy]

We can't mathematically be promoted before we go to yours, but if we beat Shrewsbury on Saturday then we would confirm promotion with a win at your place. We could even be crowned champions then if Derby fail to win both of their next two games.

I reckon Derby could well win all their remaining games.

Its not over yet

 

[Don Tonberry]

I reckon Derby could well win all their remaining games.

Its not over yet

I actually agree with you, their run-in isn't too hard on paper. I'd still back us to get the 8 points out of 15 required to win the league, though.

 

[masi51]

I actually agree with you, their run-in isn't too hard on paper. I'd still back us to get the 8 points out of 15 required to win the league, though.

Derby WONT win there last four games, they are decent but no world beaters even in this league

 

[BRFC_Gas]

strangely confident about beating Portsmouth....They could be up by then.
Saturday against Bristol Rovers and the last game against Posh could be our downfall......I think come May us and not Lincoln will be the team hitting top form basically with the number of players due back

You only have to get 1 goal to win lad, easy. Our defenders will oblige...take a look at the goals we conceded v Port Vale

 

[masi51]

You only have to get 1 goal to win lad, easy. Our defenders will oblige...take a look at the goals we conceded v Port Vale

Collins is starting to look a player and with Bodvarrson starting to form a decent partnership and with both Charles and Adeboyejo hopefully to come off the bench i fancy there a couple of goals each of our remaining games. I also fancy us to concede each game

 

[Pompeyblueboy]

Derby WONT win there last four games, they are decent but no world beaters even in this league

They've got an easy run in. My money is on Derby winning all 4. Squeaky bum time

 

[Pompeyblueboy]

I actually agree with you, their run-in isn't too hard on paper. I'd still back us to get the 8 points out of 15 required to win the league, though.

Shrewsbury will be tough.. PUP

 

[YEO YEO YEO]

Look like we are opening up at least 1 block of the away end to.home fans for last game against Pompey due to demand. Away end normally holds 1800, so assuming will only be giving 1300-1500?

 

[Guernica]

Look like we are opening up at least 1 block of the away end to.home fans for last game against Pompey due to demand. Away end normally holds 1800, so assuming will only be giving 1300-1500?

Had a look at the twitter comments, god social media is a real cesspit.

 

[YEO YEO YEO]

Had a look at the twitter comments, god social media is a real cesspit.

I did see too. Partially surprised, but when there are only a sprinkling of tickets left in home ends, you can understand it with the demand being there.

 

[BRFC_Gas]

Collins is starting to look a player and with Bodvarrson starting to form a decent partnership and with both Charles and Adeboyejo hopefully to come off the bench i fancy there a couple of goals each of our remaining games. I also fancy us to concede each game

At his peak with us Collins was unplayable, and there was talk of selling him for 2-3 million etc. Then he hardly seemed to put any effort in and went to ground far too easily for about a year.
Adeboyejo played for us on loan too, didnt look like he would make a league footballer but fair play he has upped his game tenfold.

 

[White horse]

Bolton's injury issues could be close to resolving themselves. Nathan Baxter (gk) back full in training, (been out since February), Charles (top goalscorer) also out since Feb is "almost there", Celeb Taylor and Randell Williams both fully fit, Gethin Jones back next week, Nlundulu back in full training but "not ready for selection", even George Johnson (centre back) who has been out all season has been training for the last few weeks and getting better. Only Victor Adeboyaye (10 goals this season) and Mendez Gomes were not mentioned in the update so must still be out. Think Gomes is out with a ruptured Achilles so will be months off.
Everyone of the top clubs seem to have had loads of serious injuries this season.

 

[Luke Imp]

Look like we are opening up at least 1 block of the away end to.home fans for last game against Pompey due to demand. Away end normally holds 1800, so assuming will only be giving 1300-1500?

It'd have to be blocks 1, 2 and 3 for it to be worth while, same as against Orient.

Not really sure why Portsmouth fans are up in arms about it, they've never sold out up here (admittedly different circumstances this season) and they're still getting the required allocation.

 

[K-Win]

It'd have to be blocks 1, 2 and 3 for it to be worth while, same as against Orient.

Not really sure why Portsmouth fans are up in arms about it, they've never sold out up here (admittedly different circumstances this season) and they're still getting the required allocation.

Social Media innit. Lincoln have every right to prioritise their own fans.

However, there will be plenty of generally pissed off Pompey fans who wont get a ticket for what should (touch wood) have a party atmosphere for us. Away tickets have been tough to obtain second half of the season. I reckon there will be many travelling without a ticket just to be in the vicinity of the ground.

 

[gijsbert_bos]

Social Media innit. Lincoln have every right to prioritise their own fans.

However, there will be plenty of generally pissed off Pompey fans who wont get a ticket for what should (touch wood) have a party atmosphere for us. Away tickets have been tough to obtain second half of the season. I reckon there will be many travelling without a ticket just to be in the vicinity of the ground.

It would be good if we could put a big screen up in the fanzone and make some money out of the ticketless Pompey fans! Maybe wouldn't work with the delay between live and screen though

 

[BRFC_Gas]

Be glad when these teams sod off to the Champ and quit moaning about away allocations. Dont get relegated to L1 or lower then innit

 

[Luke Imp]

Two horse race with now with Stevenage losing today. Tough ask because of GD but with us and Oxford playing each other, they'd have to win at least 3 of their last 4 (one of which is against Oxford).

Advantage Oxford.

 

[denzel ecfc]

Oh well, should make an interesting last game for us and no doubt Oxford fans trying to get tickets in the home end

 

[K-Win]

Stevenage's win over Barnsley keeps them in the playoff hunt. The Tykes' poor recent form and tough remaining fixtures means that their own playoff spot is far from guaranteed. They need to beat Reading on Saturday to calm the nerves.

Couple of huge games tonight for Derby and Peterborough. The Rams will be hoping that Wycombe aren't too interested after their season ended on Sunday. Posh will be hoping they don't have a hangover after picking up some silverware at the weekend. Bolton will be praying for one or two slip-ups.