Who are you voting for OFFICIAL POLL

[TheMinsterman]

The Tories have failed to hit immigration targets consistently (ironically enough it even rose under the stewardship of the current Prime Minister during her time overseeing it), so I'm not sure why you've got such great faith in them in that regard.

 

[Gladders]

Aye but the budget deficit has decreased every year they have been in power and have pledged to eventually get back to a surplus, all be it slower than they hoped as opposed to Labour who have just proposed to increase spending by another 75bn wiping out all the good work of getting back towards a surplus.

 

[Gladders]

The Tories have failed to hit immigration targets consistently (ironically enough it even rose under the stewardship of the current Prime Minister during her time overseeing it), so I'm not sure why you've got such great faith in them in that regard.

But in two years we will have control of our borders again.

 

[Aber gas]

Hate to bring this out again but, spending has trebled under the Tories despite constant cuts. They've borrowed more in the past 7 years than every Labour government combined.

Not to mention that the Labour manifesto is costed, much of it will cost less than stated, AND they'll be doing the borrowing up front, and have been up front about the amount they will be borrowing in order to stimulate the, frankly, stagnant economy.

Definitely worth mentioning often as possible Jase. The current chancellor is a political lightweight who keeps getting his maths wrong( doesn't get as much shit for it as Abbott , but I think we know why that is). Probably why he won't debate McDonnell, he'd have him for breakfast.

 

[TheMinsterman]

But in two years we will have control of our borders again.

Then why did it increase under a Tory government to higher than a Labour one or even the coalition with the same constraints?

 

[Captain Scumbag]

Under Cameron the Tories had a tendency to promise X and then blame the EU when they couldn't and/or didn't deliver.

This was particularly bad with regard to immigration because they KNEW perfectly well that EU membership and freedom of movement (two things they had no intention of ending) made their targets unachieveable.

It's dumb and disingenuous to make any firm commitments regarding immigration numbers when approximately 500 million people in neighbouring countries have a legal right to settle and work here. Cameron did it anyway, and stupid shit like that was why UKIP grew so exponentially during his reign.

If 'Hard Brexit' (aka Brexit) is achieved, intra-EU immigration can be subject to much tighter controls. Whether a Tory government would use those powers remains to be seen, but the powers would be there. Think that's the point he's getting at.

P.S. The net migration figures went up towards the end of Cameron's reign because the British economy, though fundamentally flawed in myriad ways, was one of the least worst in the EU at that time.

 

[TheMinsterman]

Immigration should really be flexible to the UKs demands as a whole and increase and decrease appropriately, my main concern re: immigration and May is she will just carry on with arbitrary figures because it sounds good as a soundbite.

 

[Abertawe]

Fallon said on newsnight that bringing immigration down to the tens of thousands was an ambition not policy and that it hasn't been costed because they don't know how many immigrants will be arriving into the country in the coming years. Strong & stable.

 

[The Paranoid Pineapple]

Lib Dem. Still. Because I live in Surrey. Still. And if I don't want the Tories (I don't) then who the fuck else am I going to vote for. I'm sure we'll still get the blues, but might as well attempt to get rid of the fuckers.

 

[Look Out There Are Llamas]

Without a doubt Conservatives. The thought of any other party having control scares the bejeezus out of me.

Katie, you are someone I vaguely respect. I would be genuinely interested to hear your reasoning.

 

[Aber gas]

Katie, you are someone I vaguely respect. I would be genuinely interested to hear your reasoning.

Really?

 

[Look Out There Are Llamas]

Really?

Yeah. I am pretty left wing, as such he stands in an opposite position to the one i hold - I'm genuinely always intrigued to hear the diametrically opposed argument to any opinion I have.

 

[Captain Scumbag]

My main concern re: immigration and May is she will just carry on with arbitrary figures because it sounds good as a soundbite.

FWIW I think announcing numerical targets for migration (be it inward migration, net migration or whatever) is profoundly stupid.

 

[Aber gas]

Yeah. I am pretty left wing, as such he stands in an opposite position to the one i hold - I'm genuinely always intrigued to hear the diametrically opposed argument to any opinion I have.

Yeah, yeah. I get that, it was the "you're someone I respect" that I was giving shade to. ( only joking krazy8, even though you did say you were going to mute me for the entire election)

 

[smat]

Err, t’was maybe a tad melodramatic of me to put it like that.

To clarify, I’m doing my usual dour, negative bastard thing and imagining the admittedly unlikely scenario of us ending up with a hung parliament.

Mrs May isn’t a dyed-in-the-wool Brexiter but she has taken ownership of it. She hasn’t attempted to fudge it. She’s signed the Article 50 notification. She’s put Brexit at the heart of her election manifesto.

So what would happen if she lost her parliamentary majority (a majority she didn’t win the first place, mind) just a few months after invoking Article 50, and just a month or two before the Brexit negotiations are scheduled to formally begin?

It might not kill Brexit, but the current plan would be thrown into disarray.

Tbh I expect more illumination when I query Captain Scumbag.

Surely Brexit is happening (what do you mean by 'the current plan'? Article 50 has been triggered and now she's called an election. What's the plan?!). All the polling (lol i no) suggests that we're pretty much over it. The racists (not you) and the sovereignty intellectual masturbators (you) won the referendum, and even most Remainers like me acknowledge that it has to happen now. The Lib Dems are calling for a second vote and even their paltry support has collapsed. Jezza called for Article 50 to be triggered the second the result became clear, and just a couple of days ago he said free movement ends when our membership of the EU ends, which suggests he is in favour of leaving the single market as well.

So I really don't see why you have to vote May. I say vote Jeremy. You have a lot of admiration for him. I think you should do it, even just for the frisson.

 

[Abertawe]

Scumbag basically admits the only way is Labour/Left but due to being a pessimist and adopting the moniker of a SCUMbag he has no choice but to wave a blue scarf and sing Tory Tory blue army in tandem with Toddles.

 

[Techno Natch]

Imcrease in NHS spending
Increase in money for schools, more free schools
Increasing personal allowance and higher rate to 50k
Commitment to cut immigration
More houses
Defence spending Increase and maintain current size of armed forces

To name a few I like

More houses that many can't afford, they'll continue to sell off council stock and it won't be replaced.

 

[Captain Scumbag]

Tbh I expect more illumination when I query Captain Scumbag.

I am loath to disappoint you, Matthew, especially after your “sovereignty intellectual masturbator” comment, which is possibly the kindest compliment you've ever paid me (it's either that or the time you said the sorting hat in Harry Potter would put me in Slytherin). So I’ll try again.

The current plan is to commence negotiations in the summer, following the General Election. The PM is obviously a central figure in this because he/she determines the overall strategy, assigns the negotiation team, etc. No doubt a great deal of planning has been happening behind the scenes. Continuing with that plan obviously requires continuity of leadership.

If Jez became PM then we’d have a pro-Brexit PM (he really did a fabulous double agent job last summer) but one with radically different political priorities – ones that would most likely require a significant re-think of strategy, changes in personnel, etc. In short, it would throw a massive spanner in the works. In the case of a hung parliament… fuck knows! Seriously. It’s not even clear who the PM would be. There are no obvious coalitions.

As for public opinion, Brexit is still a very divisive issue. At the moment polling data shows strong majority approval (roughly 65% to 70%) for getting on with it; however, there remains a rough 50/50 split on whether it’s actually a good idea. The majority in favour of “getting on with it” owes largely to there being a sizeable Remain contingent (comprising about 20% to 25%) who have grudgingly accepted the idea and now see it as inevitable. I suspect that much of that thinking is based on an unspoken assumption that the political landscape and balance of power is unlikely to change in the next 5-6 years. An unexpected Tory defeat would change that.

On a symbolic level if nothing else, Mrs May losing an election a few months after signing the Article 50 notification would be hugely damaging. I would rather that didn't happen, hence my hope that she wins and increases her majority. If it suits, ignore my talk about things being "dead in the water". My bad for lazy use of idioms.

 

[Ian_Wrexham]

Aye but the budget deficit has decreased every year they have been in power and have pledged to eventually get back to a surplus, all be it slower than they hoped as opposed to Labour who have just proposed to increase spending by another 75bn wiping out all the good work of getting back towards a surplus.

The budget deficit was high in 2009 because of a global financial crash (it quadrupled between 2008 and 2011 - from about £40bn to £150bn - it's now £70bn). It's not conservative prudent management of the economy that has led to the deficit decreasing, but regression to the mean (if you're not having to bail out banks every year, your deficit is going to go down from a year where you do). Tory austerity slowed the recovery - while also being cruel and unfair. Self-flagellating brutality dressed as pragmatism. Self-flagellation dressed as pragmatism.

http://www.lse.ac.uk/website-archiv...-post-2008-recession,-says-new-LSE-study.aspx

Austerity isn't good economic management, or living within our means, but an attempt to roll back welfare provision. All it has led to is people maxing out their own lines of credit - mortgages; credit cards; short-term, high-interest loans.

We, as a nation, have record levels of private debt - £13,000 per household before mortgages and £57,000 including mortgages per household.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-38534238

The Tory's manifesto, is, imo, not economically credible. They promise a lot of stuff - a reduction in immigration to the tens of thousands for example - that even if it could be achieved would be a disaster. Similarly it's not credible that we'd leave the EU with "no deal" is not a credible promise/threat - it's grandstanding.

It doesn't really have a plan to address the impending personal debt time-bomb. It doesn't really have a plan to address the housing crisis. It has a plan to address the cost of social care - in the form of what is, in essence, a death duty. Labour, for their faults, have costed proposals for these challenges.

 

[smat]

I am loath to disappoint you, Matthew, especially after your “sovereignty intellectual masturbator” comment, which is possibly the kindest compliment you've ever paid me (it's either that or the time you said the sorting hat in Harry Potter would put me in Slytherin). So I’ll try again.

The current plan is to commence negotiations in the summer, following the General Election. The PM is obviously a central figure in this because he/she determines the overall strategy, assigns the negotiation team, etc. No doubt a great deal of planning has been happening behind the scenes. Continuing with that plan obviously requires continuity of leadership.

If Jez became PM then we’d have a pro-Brexit PM (he really did a fabulous double agent job last summer) but one with radically different political priorities – ones that would most likely require a significant re-think of strategy, changes in personnel, etc. In short, it would throw a massive spanner in the works. In the case of a hung parliament… fuck knows! Seriously. It’s not even clear who the PM would be. There are no obvious coalitions.

As for public opinion, Brexit is still a very divisive issue. At the moment polling data shows strong majority approval (roughly 65% to 70%) for getting on with it; however, there remains a rough 50/50 split on whether it’s actually a good idea. The majority in favour of “getting on with it” owes largely to there being a sizeable Remain contingent (comprising about 20% to 25%) who have grudgingly accepted the idea and now see it as inevitable. I suspect that much of that thinking is based on an unspoken assumption that the political landscape and balance of power is unlikely to change in the next 5-6 years. An unexpected Tory defeat would change that.

On a symbolic level if nothing else, Mrs May losing an election a few months after signing the Article 50 notification would be hugely damaging. I would rather that didn't happen, hence my hope that she wins and increases her majority. If it suits, ignore my talk about things being "dead in the water". My bad for lazy use of idioms.

Interesting, thank you. And sorry for the insult. I was in drink.

 

[Alty]

Tory. Somewhat reluctantly. The other parties will scupper Brexit if they get half a chance (good old Jez wants properly out, of course, but the PLP will never allow it).

Having done a bit of research it doesn't seem altogether fanciful that the Tories could make a decent fist of Poplar and Limehouse, despite Labour going into the election with a hefty majority. The southern part of the constituency near Canary Wharf has a solid Tory base to draw on, clearly there's a national swing from Labour to Tory going on and we also have a Lutfur Rahman disciple (current member of Tower Hamlets Council) standing. No doubt he'll urge the Bengali community to abandon Labour and get behind him. The hold that crook has over the people round here is quite unbelievable.

 

[HertsWolf]

Without a doubt Conservatives. The thought of any other party having control scares the bejeezus out of me.

So you'll be voting for Murrison then? The man who in 16 years as an MP in Wiltshire is most famous for having done fuck all in 16 years of being an MP? Very appreciative of his military career, but as an MP, he absolutely DEFINES what is wrong with MPs: just insipid, anodyne toss. The highpoint of his parliamentary career is advising on Tunisia. Well fuck me, the legacies of some long-standing political giants are at risk from this titan of democracy.

 

[HertsWolf]

Hate to bring this out again but, spending has trebled under the Tories despite constant cuts. They've borrowed more in the past 7 years than every Labour government combined.

Not to mention that the Labour manifesto is costed, much of it will cost less than stated, AND they'll be doing the borrowing up front, and have been up front about the amount they will be borrowing in order to stimulate the, frankly, stagnant economy.

I think we will get a massive landslide Tory win that will eclipse anything seen in the last 150 years of parliamentary democracy. The voting will look impressive to people like Kim Jong Un, who will send spies to see how to achieve such remarkable percentage victories. Jeremy Corbyn may well have a future as an opposition party leader in North Korea, where he might actually get a higher vote.

I think the Labour and LibDem plans look good and far better articulated than the Tories. I also feel that the Tories have history of being economical with the truth in manifestos. The concept of the Tories being the friends of the elderly and workers is, frankly, just bizarre. But we do not have a media that will properly call them out on it. Britain has allowed politics to become defined so much by single issues in recent years that we have lost track (or interest?) collectively in important matters. If all we have bothered to consider is Brexit, Scottish independence and immigration, we have forgotten about mental health, public transport, climate change, housing policies, fishing, agriculture, trade.

At the same time, the constant harping on about experience is extremely irritating. Labour did it in 2010, the Tories more recently. 995 of experience is in the Civil Service, and **no** MP has much experience in anything other than brown-nosing and kissing babies. You are ultimately voting for a political party that will nudge the civil service one way or the other a little.

 

[Abertawe]

I can't wait. This is gonna make mugs of so many self righteous plebs.

 

[Alty]

I can't wait. This is gonna make mugs of so many self righteous plebs.

What is? A Labour win? TBF I remember you predicting a Miliband win in 2015 so your record is a tad ropey...

 

[markwwfc1992]

If this poll was anything to go by then Labour would win by a landslide.

I'll be voting Conservative, mainly because I believe they'll deliver the best possible Brexit deal for us. In a time before Brexit was even a word, I was probably a 50/50 voter between Tories and Labour, and usually go with whichever party had the best manifesto.

 

[Aber gas]

If this poll was anything to go by then Labour would win by a landslide.

I'll be voting Conservative, mainly because I believe they'll deliver the best possible Brexit deal for us. In a time before Brexit was even a word, I was probably a 50/50 voter between Tories and Labour, and usually go with whichever party had the best manifesto.

Yes, the results of this poll replicated would do me nicely

 

[Abertawe]

What is? A Labour win? TBF I remember you predicting a Miliband win in 2015 so your record is a tad ropey...

Did I?

I do remember I backed brexit, trump & macron. My record is the most credible on here.

 

[.V.]

If this poll was anything to go by then Labour would win by a landslide.

I'll be voting Conservative, mainly because I believe they'll deliver the best possible Brexit deal for us. In a time before Brexit was even a word, I was probably a 50/50 voter between Tories and Labour, and usually go with whichever party had the best manifesto.

The best deal for whom though? The British worker who requires to Working Tax Credits to top up their earnings? You may be in for a shock I'm afraid.

 

[HertsWolf]

I can't wait. This is gonna make mugs of so many self righteous plebs.

Why self-righteous?