2023/24 League Two Promotion Thread

[JJ1990]

Didn't see this thread already posted, so thought I'd start one.

I did this for the relegation thread and I'll bring it in for the promotion thread. It's the real league table, showing what points you're likely to need for the title, top 3 and top 7 spots based on historical averages and what each team is looking likely to finish with this season.

I only included the top 10, which yes does initially discount some teams only a point or two behind, but I don't want to list half the league as promotion contenders, so I'm sticking with the top 10 only for now. The totals listed are the average of total points each team that finished 1st, 3rd and 7th ended the season with between the 2010-11 and 2022-23 seasons, with the totals for the 19/20 season discarded for obvious reasons as they were for a shortened season.

90 - Predicted Champions, Predicted Automatics
89
88 - Average Champions
87 -
86 -
85 -
84 -
83 -
82 - Average Automatics
81 -
80 -
79 -
78 -
77 -
76 -
75 - Predicted Play Offs
74 -
73 -
72 - Average Play Offs
71 -
70 -
69 -
68 -
67 -
66 -
65 -
64 -
63 -
62 -
61 -
60 -
59 -
58 -
57 -
56 -
55 -
54 -
53 -
52 -
51 - Stockport(26)
50 -
49 - Mansfield(25), Wrexham(25)
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48 - Barrow(26)
47 -
46 -
45 -
44 - Crewe(26)
43 -
42 - Notts County(26)
41 -
40 -
39 - AFC Wimbledon(25)
-------------------------------------------------
39 - MK Dons(24), Crawley(26)
38 - Accrington(26)

I know it's a stretched out table, but it'll start to close up as more games go by.

In terms of upcoming fixtures, the teams in the top third(1-8) will be listed green, the middle third(9-16) orange and the bottom third red(17-24).

1st - Stockport County, 51 points, GD 27: Walsall(H), Notts County(A), Doncaster(A), Harrogate(H), Grimsby(A)
2nd - Mansfield Town, 49 points, GD 24: Morecambe(A), FGR(H), Sutton(H), AFC Wimbledon(A), Notts County(H)
3rd - Wrexham, 49 points, GD 16: AFC Wimbledon(H), Newport(A), Crawley(H), Salford(A), Bradford(H)
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4th - Barrow, 48 points, GD 14: Sutton(A), Crewe(H), Notts County(A), MK Dons(H), Wimbledon(A)
5th - Crewe Alex, 44 points, GD 9: Swindon(H), Barrow(A), Morecambe(A), Salford(H), Tranmere(A)
6th - Notts County, 42 points, GD 8: Grimsby(A), Stockport(H), Barrow(H), Mansfield(A), Gillingham(H)
7th - AFC Wimbledon, 39 points, GD 13: Wrexham(A), Crawley(H), MK Dons(A), Mansfield(H), Bradford(A)
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8th - MK Dons, 39 points, GD 8: Tranmere(A), Morecambe(H), AFC Wimbledon(H), Gillingham(H), Barrow(A)
9th - Crawley Town, 38 points, GD -1: Salford(H), AFC Wimbledon(A), Wrexham(A), Morecambe(H), Crewe(A)
10th - Accrington Stanley, 38 points, GD 4: Gillingham(H), Walsall(A), Forest Green(A), Grimsby(H), MK Dons(A)

One thing really stands out here and that's how many promotion 6 pointers there will be in the next month or so. Barrow and Wimbledon have particularly tough games.

Next week's fixtures:

Saturday 13th January
Crawley Town v Salford City
Crewe Alex v Swindon Town
Grimsby Town v Notts County
Morecambe v Mansfield Town
Stockport County v Walsall
Sutton v Barrow
Tranmere Rovers v MK Dons
Wrexham v AFC Wimbledon

Some big games coming up. Crawley, Crewe, Notts County, Mansfield and Barrow will fancy their chances against strugglers. MK Dons have a tricky trip to inform Tranmere, as do Stockport at home to Walsall who've won 4 of their last 5. Wrexham you'd back to keep their form going against a depleted Wimbledon team.

 

[chief]

Said it for a few months now but it's hard to see past the 3 currently in the automatic spots.

January will be telling, but I'll predict:

1. Stockport
2. Wrexham
3. Mansfield
-‐----------------------------
4. MK Dons
5. Barrow
6. Crewe
7. Notts County

Not overly bold I know, but it's not easy to be at this point.

 

[DippyDon]

We need a good January but I'm somewhat confident as it stands right now. We'd be right up there if it hadn't been for Alexander losing the plot.

 

[AdamStag]

The crewe result should do us good in the long run, clearly shouldn’t have lost but if you can’t put the ball in the net….

Morecambe will be tricky before 2 home games against sides down there - we’ve got to learn to be more clinical at home.

 

[chipmunx]

After the Wimbledon (a) game on the 10th February Barrow's fixture list until the last day is very favourable, so we just need to stay in touch in the next month.
That said we didn't lose any of the reverse fixtures.

I have a sneaky suspicion that we'll finish 3rd.

 

[BarraMatt]

The current top three will go up automatically.

If we are still 4th with a similar buffer over 8th after this tough run of fixtures I'll be incredibly satisfied.

 

[Stocky]

Absolutely no chance we'll win the league as it stands. We have 10 players injured and 11 senior outfield players fit. One of which hasn't had international Clearence on his signing yet (Ethan Bristow).

A decent 4 or 5 of them may be back in February time but it's just going to cost us big time. We may bring in 2 or 3 this window but I'm not sure when.

 

[Master D]

Current top 3 look strong but you could see MK Dons being capable of putting a big run together.

Not sure on everyone else but we've already played all of the current top 7 away apart from Crewe.

 

[Greenacres]

Promotion is over-rated...we are far more comfortable in a relegation battle!

 

[Nipper81]

Current top 3 look strong but you could see MK Dons being capable of putting a big run together.

Not sure on everyone else but we've already played all of the current top 7 away apart from Crewe.

We've played all top 7 away bar Notts County,after January we'll only have MK Dons(H) left to play in top 7.

 

[ForzaCounty]

Absolutely no chance we'll win the league as it stands. We have 10 players injured and 11 senior outfield players fit. One of which hasn't had international Clearence on his signing yet (Ethan Bristow).

A decent 4 or 5 of them may be back in February time but it's just going to cost us big time. We may bring in 2 or 3 this window but I'm not sure when.

Rydel, Pye, Knoyle, MSH, Hippo, Collar, Sarce, Powell, Barry, Stretton... stick a keeper in there and that XI would beat our currently for XI

 

[Stocky]

Rydel, Pye, Knoyle, MSH, Hippo, Collar, Sarce, Powell, Barry, Stretton... stick a keeper in there and that XI would beat our currently for XI

Touray at AFCON too.

 

[ForzaCounty]

Touray at AFCON too.

He's not helping either XI tbf

 

[BarraMatt]

We've played all top 7 away bar Notts County,after January we'll only have MK Dons(H) left to play in top 7.

And Mansfield on the final day.

 

[Who Needs Mourinho]

Yeah with our injuries we’re out of the title race. They’ve already allowed teams to claw us back and somehow every week it just gets worse.

We’ll try and add a few but every club already adds a Stockport tax on and now with this injury crisis and us in a promotion race they’ll try and take the piss. Current situation with the stand off for Odin Bailey being the prime example.

Also there is the squad number limit. Think we’ve got three spots as it stands. If we filled those tomorrow we still would have half the bench with academy kids on it.

If you offered me third place I’d snap your hand off.

 

[Conker]

Bolstering our attacking options is very dependent on how we will do, our performances have definitely tailed off recently but still managed to pick up an impressive points return over Christmas.

The other main concern is our home form, we struggle to score at home and really need to put that to bed in our next two against FGR and Sutton.

 

[Crewelad87]

Just glad we're still in there given the injury crisis we've had since the start of Decemeber. Were not fully out of it yet, but things are now getting better and re enforcements are coming in. A few tricky games on the horizon especially away from home, Barrow, Tranmere, Stockport and Notts County are 4 of our next 5 away games, all tough games. But saying that winning at Mansfield last weekend will hopefully give us some confidence. Our home games look much more favourable and I can't see us losing many of them between now and the end of the season.

 

[JJ1990]

92 - Predicted Champions
91 -
90 -
89
88 - Average Champions, Predicted Automatics
87 -
86 -
85 -
84 -
83 -
82 - Average Automatics
81 -
80 -
79 -
78 -
77 -
76 -
75 -
74 -
73 - Predicted Play Offs
72 - Average Play Offs
71 -
70 -
69 -
68 -
67 -
66 -
65 -
64 -
63 -
62 -
61 -
60 -
59 -
58 -
57 -
56 -
55 -
54 - Stockport(27)
53 -
52 - Wrexham(26)
51 -
50 - Mansfield(26)
-------------------------------------------------
49 - Barrow(27)
48 -
47 - Crewe(27)
46 -
45 -
44 -
43 - Notts County(27)
42 - MK Dons(25)
-------------------------------------------------
41 - Gillingham(26)
40 - Harrogate(27)
39 - AFC Wimbledon(26)

1st - Stockport County, 54 points, GD 29: Notts County(A), Doncaster(A), Harrogate(H), Grimsby(A), Crewe(H)
2nd - Wrexham, 52 points, GD 18: Newport(A), Crawley(H), Salford(A), Bradford(H), Sutton(A)
3rd - Mansfield Town, 50 points, GD 24: Forest Green(H), Sutton(H), AFC Wimbledon(A), Notts County(H), Forest Green(A)
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4th - Barrow, 49 points, GD 14: Crewe(H), Notts County(A), MK Dons(H), Wimbledon(A), Forest Green(H)
5th - Crewe Alex, 47 points, GD 10: Barrow(A), Morecambe(A), Salford(H), Tranmere(A), Crawley(H)
6th - Notts County, 43 points, GD 8: Stockport(H), Barrow(H), Mansfield(A), Gillingham(H), Newport(A)
7th - MK Dons, 42 points, GD 9: Morecambe(H), AFC Wimbledon(H), Gillingham(H), Barrow(A), Accrington(H)
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8th - Gillingham, 41 points, GD -8: Forest Green(H), MK Dons(A), Walsall(H), Notts County(A), Swindon(H)
9th - Harrogate, 40 points, GD -1: Grimsby(H), Newport(H), Sutton(A), Stockport(A), Colchester(H)
10th - AFC Wimbledon, 39 points, GD 11: Crawley(H), MK Dons(A), Mansfield(H), Bradford(A), Barrow(H)

Good home wins for Stockport and Wrexham to keep themselves pushing towards promotion. Mansfield drop a result for the 2nd straight week, although the bottom 2 at home in back to back games is the perfect way to respond. Barrow only manage at draw at Sutton and have 3 tough games coming up now. Maybe Wild shouldn't keep getting himself banned from the touchline, given that's 3 they've failed to win with him not in the dugout.

Crewe narrowly get by Swindon and I can't work out as an Alex fan to look up or down the table. Notts County score 5 away from home and don't win. They are on course to score 102 but concede almost 90. MK Dons get a decent win at inform Tranmere and are back in the top 7 at the expense of Wimbledon, who drop to 10th after losing to Wrexham. Those players losses are starting to bite you feel.

And who's this coming into the play-off picture? Gillingham are back after beating Accrington on the road. They are only 1 point off despite having a -8 goal difference. Then we have Harrogate, who despite a poor home record are also up to their highest spot of the season and are suddenly dark horses after a win at Forest Green. They've got a favourable schedule over the next month as well.

Next week's fixtures:

Tuesday 16th January
Mansfield Town v Forest Green

Saturday 20th January
AFC Wimbledon v Crawley Town
Barrow v Crewe Alex
Gillingham v Forest Green
Harrogate Town v Grimsby Town
Mansfield Town v Sutton United
MK Dons v Morecambe
Newport County v Wrexham
Notts County v Stockport County

Mansfield have got to be getting 6 points from this week surely? Wimbledon will want a win over Crawley, but can they when they are down several important players? Gillingham, Harrogate and MK Dons will fancy their chances at home against strugglers. Wrexham have a tough trip to Rodney Parade where teams like Stockport and Crewe have failed to win in recent weeks.

2 big promotion 6 pointers in 4th v 5th and 6th v 1st to keep an eye on as well.

 

[Conker]

Stockport and Wrexham are not gunna let up, it’s very important we get six points next week.

 

[chipmunx]

Your current table has Mansfield on 49 and Barrow on 48, but they both have a point more. You've got it right in the summary of the next month's fixtures.

 

[Meadow]

I can't see us getting many points until Ali and Omar return from the Asia Cup. After that, who knows?

 

[Who Needs Mourinho]

Huge win for us today against a red hot Walsall.

I know people will say we still have Madden and Powell coming off the bench (and they were actually good today) but their reputations and current output haven’t matched this season, particularly in Powell’s case.

To beat Walsall with 12 fit senior outfield players, a left back on debut who hasn’t played for three months. A CB at RB and a player starting who’s just returned from loan and knows the manager doesn’t really rate him is for me probably our best result this season.

Mansfield dropping points two weeks on the spin a huge surprise to me. I’d kinda written the chances of finishing above them off after our defeat to them the other week.

 

[JJ1990]

Your current table has Mansfield on 49 and Barrow on 48, but they both have a point more. You've got it right in the summary of the next month's fixtures.

Thanks, updated it.

 

[chief]

How on earth have Harrogate ended up there?

Forget Barrow, they're the true team flying under the radar.

 

[Conker]

How on earth have Harrogate ended up there?

Forget Barrow, they're the true team flying under the radar.

Agreed, absolutely terrible earlier in the season too.

Stockport fans, having Powell and Madden on the bench at L2 is absolutely insane and nothing you say will convince anyone otherwise so suck it up and accept your $tockport who should be challenging for the title.

 

[The_Viking_Magpie]

They are...

As for Harrogate they've been both former National powerhouses Wrexham and Notts County. If you do , you are going to be ok.

 

[Greenacres]

Harrogate play some pretty neat football, sharp passing, lots of one touch even in danger areas, they were confident and good to watch. We were lucky to get away with 2-0 against them yesterday, it could have been a lot worse, it wouldn't surprise me if they challenge for the play-offs, which is amazing considering they were probably expected to struggle by many this season. In Odoh they have one of the best players I have seen this season, probably second to Al-Hamadi from Wimbledon, he is a right handful.

 

[GEORGE]

Its one thing going up . But another to stay up. Personally I think the top three will probably do it this season . Stockport & Wrexham should have the resources to stay up . Not sure about Mansfield --Feel they may struggle.

 

[Conker]

Its one thing going up . But another to stay up. Personally I think the top three will probably do it this season . Stockport & Wrexham should have the resources to stay up . Not sure about Mansfield --Feel they may struggle.

Got a manager that did it with Burton with a tiny budget in comparison, and although we may not spend like those two looking at L1 I see quite a few clubs we probably already outspend a division lower.

I’m not suggesting we may not find it difficult but resources will not be an excuse. Anyway gotta try and actually get promoted first.

 

[AdamStag]

Was looking promising after 60 minutes.

Winning, stockport and wrexham drawing, barrow losing, fast forward 30 minutes and meh, not a good afternoon.

Barrow drawing was a bonus though i suppose.

He’s tried a new formation since grimsby and it simply isn’t working in general and he needs to change it.

We’re at home to FG and sutton tuesday/saturday so let’s see what happens.

It’s after the turn of the year though and mansfield normally start to fall apart around now….