2025 relegation dogfight thread

[Pilot_Phonic]

Burton have been terrible all season, and Shrewsbury are over achieving in 23rd (not me being biased). I feel like slops have been like water circling the drain for a couple of years, so without the takeover and lack of investment, they'll go down. Others to join these 2 I think could be the gas, who were worse than abysmal when we played them, followed by Northampton. They were awful against us too but it seems like their never ending injury list needs to shorten otherwise they will go. 3 months without half your squad is very difficult to manage and scrape out the relegation fight.

 

[Gassy]

Just shows how things can change it wasn't so long ago Orient we're down here struggling. Hopefully with some ins and outs in Jan we will be better, as we cannot get worse surely.

Feel like some won’t be enough sadly and I have no faith in the owners a splash out.

Maybe if we send back all the reserve/bench filling loans, but I really doubt it

 

[Pedlar]

How many points would be required to be safe from relegation this season?

 

[thewwfc]

Historical average is around the 48 point mark (according to this, bit out of date article but the average won't have changed much).

Obviously it all depends on how the bottom teams perform between now and the end of the season though.

 

[Throbber_for_Dunk]

PPG Prophet has downgraded it to 44 this year, but I'd be staggered if it's that low come the end of the year.

 

[bigfatron]

I'd expect something in the range 46-48 to be the boundary.

That article does illustrate one thing though - Port Vale were quoted as having only 6% chance of being relegated, yet they did indeed go down; nothing is ever decided at New Year...

 

[Casey]

January beckons and we have been told we will be surprised at the signings we make.

If we don't get relegated I'd be surprised. We haven't got bad players, just not quite league one quality

Casey

 

[BRFC_Gas]

Feel like some won’t be enough sadly and I have no faith in the owners a splash out.

Maybe if we send back all the reserve/bench filling loans, but I really doubt it

Splashing out in the summer doesn't seem to have worked either, we are now getting schooled by teams who could only dream of the money we have spunked on pretty poor players. We need a proper scouting network setup, even Barton couldn't believe Friend is our dof

 

[denzel ecfc]

The oh so generous bookies have 6 teams odds on to go down..

Interesting odds on Reading, is another points deduction expected??

 

[AdamStag]

The average of the last 10 completed seasons (leaving out 19/20 due to covid) is 46.8

The highest to go down on is 50, whereas fleetwood stopped up with 40 on the 21/22 season.

Crawley are in the last relegation spot on 20 from 22 games (0.91 PPG) which would take them to 42 if they kept at their current run rate.

Bristol rovers are going at a point a game (so obviously 46) and northampton are 22 from 23 (0.96 PPG which would take them to 44) would see them both relegated in 7 of the last 10 completed seasons.

Can tell i’ve not been working over christmas

 

[UTFD]

I also thought Barnsley were poor at our place. Reading by far the worse though.

We've sustained the home form over the whole year with 50 points which is some going!

Away from home we're a joke and that was down to Selles refusing to change tactics. The game at yours we were poor but we've been far worse trust me. If we had the penalty to make it 1-1 it's a different game. Hopefully Hunt can set us up harder to beat on the road.

 

[UTFD]

The oh so generous bookies have 6 teams odds on to go down..

Interesting odds on Reading, is another points deduction expected??

Probably not after the statement yesterday. However with the clown in charge you never really know what's going on

 

[Pilot_Phonic]

Without knowing the full ins and outs with Reading, the bookies are probably covering themselves until their ownership is fully resolved and the crook has been beaten.

Hope Reading get what they deserve, having had 20 years of shit hitting the fan with our club.

 

[thewwfc]

I posted this in the promotion thread (as a reason why Reading can probably be counted out of the playoff race, as opposed to a reason why they might be outsiders for relegation) but there is a possibility of a January fire sale of players, which obviously wouldn't do them any favours.

I mean, they'd really have to go some at this stage (even with a points deduction) to go down, but...