2025 relegation dogfight thread

[Pilot_Phonic]

Burton have been terrible all season, and Shrewsbury are over achieving in 23rd (not me being biased). I feel like slops have been like water circling the drain for a couple of years, so without the takeover and lack of investment, they'll go down. Others to join these 2 I think could be the gas, who were worse than abysmal when we played them, followed by Northampton. They were awful against us too but it seems like their never ending injury list needs to shorten otherwise they will go. 3 months without half your squad is very difficult to manage and scrape out the relegation fight.

 

[Gassy]

Just shows how things can change it wasn't so long ago Orient we're down here struggling. Hopefully with some ins and outs in Jan we will be better, as we cannot get worse surely.

Feel like some won’t be enough sadly and I have no faith in the owners a splash out.

Maybe if we send back all the reserve/bench filling loans, but I really doubt it

 

[Pedlar]

How many points would be required to be safe from relegation this season?

 

[thewwfc]

Historical average is around the 48 point mark (according to this, bit out of date article but the average won't have changed much).

Obviously it all depends on how the bottom teams perform between now and the end of the season though.

 

[Throbber_for_Dunk]

PPG Prophet has downgraded it to 44 this year, but I'd be staggered if it's that low come the end of the year.

 

[bigfatron]

I'd expect something in the range 46-48 to be the boundary.

That article does illustrate one thing though - Port Vale were quoted as having only 6% chance of being relegated, yet they did indeed go down; nothing is ever decided at New Year...

 

[Casey]

January beckons and we have been told we will be surprised at the signings we make.

If we don't get relegated I'd be surprised. We haven't got bad players, just not quite league one quality

Casey

 

[BRFC_Gas]

Feel like some won’t be enough sadly and I have no faith in the owners a splash out.

Maybe if we send back all the reserve/bench filling loans, but I really doubt it

Splashing out in the summer doesn't seem to have worked either, we are now getting schooled by teams who could only dream of the money we have spunked on pretty poor players. We need a proper scouting network setup, even Barton couldn't believe Friend is our dof

 

[denzel ecfc]

The oh so generous bookies have 6 teams odds on to go down..

Interesting odds on Reading, is another points deduction expected??

 

[AdamStag]

The average of the last 10 completed seasons (leaving out 19/20 due to covid) is 46.8

The highest to go down on is 50, whereas fleetwood stopped up with 40 on the 21/22 season.

Crawley are in the last relegation spot on 20 from 22 games (0.91 PPG) which would take them to 42 if they kept at their current run rate.

Bristol rovers are going at a point a game (so obviously 46) and northampton are 22 from 23 (0.96 PPG which would take them to 44) would see them both relegated in 7 of the last 10 completed seasons.

Can tell i’ve not been working over christmas

 

[UTFD]

I also thought Barnsley were poor at our place. Reading by far the worse though.

We've sustained the home form over the whole year with 50 points which is some going!

Away from home we're a joke and that was down to Selles refusing to change tactics. The game at yours we were poor but we've been far worse trust me. If we had the penalty to make it 1-1 it's a different game. Hopefully Hunt can set us up harder to beat on the road.

 

[UTFD]

The oh so generous bookies have 6 teams odds on to go down..

Interesting odds on Reading, is another points deduction expected??

Probably not after the statement yesterday. However with the clown in charge you never really know what's going on

 

[Pilot_Phonic]

Without knowing the full ins and outs with Reading, the bookies are probably covering themselves until their ownership is fully resolved and the crook has been beaten.

Hope Reading get what they deserve, having had 20 years of shit hitting the fan with our club.

 

[thewwfc]

I posted this in the promotion thread (as a reason why Reading can probably be counted out of the playoff race, as opposed to a reason why they might be outsiders for relegation) but there is a possibility of a January fire sale of players, which obviously wouldn't do them any favours.

I mean, they'd really have to go some at this stage (even with a points deduction) to go down, but...

 

[AmberAndy]

Think the bottom 3 are settled now, although probably not in the right order. On the basis of todays game Crawley will easily overtake Bristol Rovers and be safe. Huge win for the Wobblers today though not safe by any means. Would be hilarious to see Pish come down with us, but surely they will have enough to just keep heads above water. All the other under-performers ; Charlton, Orient and Wigan getting their acts together over Christmas. Jury still out on Rotherham.

 

[thewwfc]

It's hugely depressing once that gap to safety starts to open up, and you are left calculating the, "well maybe if we suddenly hit promotion form, we could hit 48 points...." type scenarios - we've all been there.

There is still the January window but it's a vicious circle in terms of trying to get players in to be part of a relegation dogfight, and also whether the club has the money to spend/can find anyone to ship out their deadwood to.

 

[AdamStag]

Big wins for BR and northampton respectively, especially away

Starting to look a tad bleak for the bottom 4 though.

 

[Laker]

We haven’t got the money to throw at it. And if we did, our recruitment team wouldn’t get it right. And even if they did, our manager isn’t good enough to make the most of it.

And even if we did have a manager with enough skill, we still effectively need 30 points from the last 22 games after only taking 17 from the first 24.

It isn’t happening.

 

[Throbber_for_Dunk]

Weren't we 7 off with 8 matches left the other year?

I'm not blindly saying keep the faith, but it is still within our gift to, well, reinvigorate the faith with a sacking and a few signings!

Although the head says you've nailed it in two lines.

 

[dannylad01]

It's a big ask but seen enough in the last few weeks to suggest that the fighting spirit may keep us in the race for survival, and also that the teams above us aren't very good either.

Peterborough will surely pull themselves together and stay out of trouble.

Problem we have is the next run of fixtures is horrendous on paper, with 6 of the next 7 against teams in the top half/eyes on the players offs, with the other one away at Rotherham who seem to have started to get their act together. By the end of that run the gap may be more than the current 8 points, with the games starting to run out

 

[Tom_CUFC]

Yes, I think we were 8 adrift with 9 to play, we were much later in the year than this with people screaming "play the youth team!" and we managed to survive.

Having said that, this team is much worse, this manager is much worse, and this does feel much more hopeless. All the more reason why the board need to do something right now. I don't think they're going to though.

 

[Arbury]

Yeah I can’t give up, todays performance was one of a relegated side but i still believe we can get out of it however unlikely it may still feel, not so much last season but definitely the season before should prove that anything is possible, KTF.

UIE

 

[Throbber_for_Dunk]

Yes, I think we were 8 adrift with 9 to play, we were much later in the year than this with people screaming "play the youth team!" and we managed to survive.

Having said that, this team is much worse, this manager is much worse, and this does feel much more hopeless. All the more reason why the board need to do something right now. I don't think they're going to though.

Knowing you, the lack of anger about it says more than anything else!

 

[BRFC_Gas]

We haven’t got the money to throw at it. And if we did, our recruitment team wouldn’t get it right. And even if they did, our manager isn’t good enough to make the most of it.

And even if we did have a manager with enough skill, we still effectively need 30 points from the last 22 games after only taking 17 from the first 24.

It isn’t happening.

I think we are both being punished, as well as Port Vale, for actually paying money for Loft. We always have ex players scoring against us, but I have never been so confident it wouldn't happen as I was today, a gash player.

 

[denzel ecfc]

We could still 'do a Port Vale'

 

[BRFC_Gas]

We could still 'do a Port Vale'

I wish you would, you beat us far too many times for my liking, although we'd probably join you anyway

 

[Tom_CUFC]

Knowing you, the lack of anger about it says more than anything else!

I have never been more apathetic, missed Reading on NYD as I just couldn't be bothered, been a long long time since I've been in the country and chosen not to go to a home game. Missing the next 3 aways at least, was a real struggle making myself go today, tbh only really did as I assumed my local game would be off and needed something to do (and being off the drink at the moment took the other option out...).

I don't know if it's just getting older, so many years of doing it every week, the fact that Bonner + those teams were so likeable compared to what we've had since, or that realistically having gone up, won some big games, massive cup upset, miracle last day survival, that it just isn't going to get any better than what we've had. We're either shit like this every year and lose all the time, or we "establish" ourselves as a mid-table L1 team, whoop-de-fucking-doo. And in the event we somehow miraculously ever got promoted, the Championship is a bloody cesspit with stupid kick off times/days and rip off ticket prices.

Maybe L2 won't be so bad....but we'll probably just revert to type there and finish 19th and it'll be equally as miserable, but at least it will feel like there’s a chance we could compete every year.

Anyway, as I was saying.....we're not down yet.

 

[Arbury]

I have never been more apathetic, missed Reading on NYD as I just couldn't be bothered, been a long long time since I've been in the country and chosen not to go to a home game. Missing the next 3 aways at least, was a real struggle making myself go today, tbh only really did as I assumed my local game would be off and needed something to do (and being off the drink at the moment took the other option out...).

I don't know if it's just getting older, so many years of doing it every week, the fact that Bonner + those teams were so likeable compared to what we've had since, or that realistically having gone up, won some big games, massive cup upset, miracle last day survival, that it just isn't going to get any better than what we've had. We're either shit like this every year and lose all the time, or we "establish" ourselves as a mid-table L1 team, whoop-de-fucking-doo. And in the event we somehow miraculously ever got promoted, the Championship is a bloody cesspit with stupid kick off times/days and rip off ticket prices.

Maybe L2 won't be so bad....but we'll probably just revert to type there and finish 19th and it'll be equally as miserable, but at least it will feel like there’s a chance we could compete every year.

Anyway, as I was saying.....we're not down yet.

I’m guessing you weren’t around in the ling/derry days?

UIE.

 

[Tom_CUFC]

I’m guessing you weren’t around in the ling/derry days?

UIE.

Yup, first game 95, 40+ games a season since 2004 save for a couple of seasons pre-covid living in Canada. They were really shit, but because of where we were there was always the possibility of tangible improvement. We'd also basically had next to no big games/wins for 20 years, so there was always the excitement of when that big game will come (league or cup).

We've now hit our limit of where we can go AND we're as shit as we were in those days (and others). We're going to redevelop the stadium over the next 5 years to give us the facilities that will allow us to compete.....10 places higher than we are now. That's completely an indictment on football in this country rather than Cambridge United, but it's a bit depressing to me anyway.

At some point we'll win a bit more often again, maybe we'll settle in as a yo-yo L1/L2 team like a dozen or so teams and it'll become a bit more normal, bit after 2020-2023 it's feels a bit after the Lord Mayor's show right now still.

 

[Stocky]

Yup, first game 95, 40+ games a season since 2004 save for a couple of seasons pre-covid living in Canada. They were really shit, but because of where we were there was always the possibility of tangible improvement. We'd also basically had next to no big games/wins for 20 years, so there was always the excitement of when that big game will come (league or cup).

We've now hit our limit of where we can go AND we're as shit as we were in those days (and others). We're going to redevelop the stadium over the next 5 years to give us the facilities that will allow us to compete.....10 places higher than we are now. That's completely an indictment on football in this country rather than Cambridge United, but it's a bit depressing to me anyway.

At some point we'll win a bit more often again, maybe we'll settle in as a yo-yo L1/L2 team like a dozen or so teams and it'll become a bit more normal, bit after 2020-2023 it's feels a bit after the Lord Mayor's show right now still.

How high do you think you should be going?

There are bigger clubs than you in the National League. Don't take things for granted.