2025 relegation dogfight thread

[Stocky]

Shrewsbury are going to stay up. Gareth Ainsworth really does seem to get everyone fighting for him and each other. I can see why to be honest, seems a good guy. They should have got something at ours the other week, it was a 0-0 if I'd ever seen one bar one bit of quality from Norwood.

Don't know who will take their place, Peterborough or Exeter for me.

 

[dannylad01]

Shrewsbury are going to stay up. Gareth Ainsworth really does seem to get everyone fighting for him and each other. I can see why to be honest, seems a good guy. They should have got something at ours the other week, it was a 0-0 if I'd ever seen one bar one bit of quality from Norwood.

Don't know who will take their place, Peterborough or Exeter for me.

Even if we don't stay up, he has everyone believing that we've got a good chance having looked dead and buried before Hurst left. Stay up and some would give him the freedom kf the town given we were on 8 points after 15 games and a weak squad with the lowest budget (allegedly) for the league. The vocal elements of our fan base who are demanding the overdue changes at the very top have also said to not make noises at games and get 100% behind the team on a match day.

Apart from the fight and desire he's getting out of the players, he's brought in Blackman and also admitted that the defenders couldn't cope with his game plans so switched to a back 3 with wing backs. In Ainsworth's first 5 games we conceded 14 goals. Blackman has played in 10 games and conceded only 10 goals. We've not conceded more than 1 in a game since Blackman's first game at Wigan on 21 December.

Despite not looking overly threatening going forward at times, we've scored in 11 of the 14 games Ainsworth has been in charge. Making Marquis captain has transformed his season. He was on the bench a lot under Hurst and didn't look like he wanted to be here. Now he is totally committed with Lloyd pressing and harrying defenders.

The talk is get to the end of this month still in touch and go from there. We've still got Bristol Rovers, Burton, Cambridge and Crawley (on the last day) to play at home. Win those, which is a big ask, and an upturn in our away form and we've got a good chance with our limited squad. We have to stay relatively injury free as the transfer window wasn't great and we have no backup.

It's the hope that kills you!

 

[EricSabin]

Thought it’d be interesting to look at PPG since Christmas as the teams down the bottom are making a real fist of it, interesting to see if it’s borne out in the stats

17) Northampton - 1.33
18) Exeter - 0.55
19) Bristol Rovers - 0.88
20) Peterborough - 0.55

21) Burton - 1.40
22) Shrewsbury - 1.55
23) Crawley - 0.63
24) Cambridge - 0.66

As expected Burton and Shrewsbury are going very well, would give them 64 and 71 points respectively across a whole season. We’re also going well since Christmas but still ripe for the picking, Exeter and Boro in trouble and Crawley and Cambridge not making the strides needed to overhaul teams.

 

[EricSabin]

If everyone carried on at that rate for the rest of the season; we’d have these totals

17) Northampton - 54
18 Shrewsbury - 52
19) Burton - 48
20) Rovers - 47

21) Exeter - 41
22) Peterborough - 39
23) Crawley - 35
24) Cambridge - 34

Obviously Exeter and Boro’s dreadful form doing some heavy lifting here as surely that can’t continue to be as bad as it is at present, and if they get closer to a 1pt a game they’ll be bang in the mix with Burton/Rovers. Also highlights how far back Burton and Shrewsbury started from, and the great run that they’re both on has only given them a chance, not a guarantee.

Likely a completely pointless exercise, but I might update it occasionally as the season gets closer to the climax.

 

[Throbber_for_Dunk]

Bit better for us in the last five but yeah, points that are good in isolation/on paper aren't going to cut it. We're on the verge of needing play off form.

Once we've got Brum out of the way on Tuesday, we have a much more presentable run of fixtures, but we're going to need as many wins from the next six or seven as we've managed all season.

The best we can hope from this point is the scum coming with us!

 

[EricSabin]

Bit better for us in the last five but yeah, points that are good in isolation/on paper aren't going to cut it. We're on the verge of needing play off form.

Once we've got Brum out of the way on Tuesday, we have a much more presentable run of fixtures, but we're going to need as many wins from the next six or seven as we've managed all season.

The best we can hope from this point is the scum coming with us!

Average minimum points to stay up in League 1 over the last 10 seasons is 49 - so you’d need 1.53 points to get there. As Shrewsbury showing it’s not impossible but like you said it probably needs to start soon!

 

[Throbber_for_Dunk]

Average minimum points to stay up in League 1 over the last 10 seasons is 49 - so you’d need 1.53 points to get there. As Shrewsbury showing it’s not impossible but like you said it probably needs to start soon!

Think it's one that's likely to be lower this year.... if you aren't already in the relegation zone, of course.

Makes it all the more frustrating how many points we've left on the table, but yeah it needs to happen and fast. As it is we need results just to get off the bottom, let alone near the line.

Resigned to it though, so anything is a bonus.

 

[Casey]

Can't see us getting anywhere near safety.

We just don't have the players to escape. The only player we signed with any pedigree didn't play in his previous sides last 12 games due to injury. We're playing a centre forward as a wing back (we have one wide defender who never plays) and we have injuries everywhere.

We are trying though so I haven't turned in the team.

Casey

 

[northstandexile]

If everyone carried on at that rate for the rest of the season; we’d have these totals

17) Northampton - 54
18 Shrewsbury - 52
19) Burton - 48
20) Rovers - 47

21) Exeter - 41
22) Peterborough - 39
23) Crawley - 35
24) Cambridge - 34

Obviously Exeter and Boro’s dreadful form doing some heavy lifting here as surely that can’t continue to be as bad as it is at present, and if they get closer to a 1pt a game they’ll be bang in the mix with Burton/Rovers. Also highlights how far back Burton and Shrewsbury started from, and the great run that they’re both on has only given the, a chance, not a guarantee.

Likely a completely pointless exercise, but I might update it occasionally as the season gets closer to the climax.

Where are Mansfield in this table seeing we have lost our last five

 

[Throbber_for_Dunk]

Where are Mansfield in this table seeing we have lost our last five

You're 14th.

Mid table thread is over there somewhere.

 

[Gassy]

The last few seasons have been low safety total points I think? Not sure how this one will go, think it’ll be around the 47/48 mark as predicted.

One thing I think is worth considering in that total points is our managers first game was Stevenage away on 29th December and since then we’ve picked up 9 points in 7 games which if we carried that on, we should be closer to the 53 type mark?

No idea whether we can keep that going though, still bricking Burton at home on Saturday, absolutely massive

 

[EricSabin]

The last few seasons have been low safety total points I think? Not sure how this one will go, think it’ll be around the 47/48 mark as predicted.

One thing I think is worth considering in that total points is our managers first game was Stevenage away on 29th December and since then we’ve picked up 9 points in 7 games which if we carried that on, we should be closer to the 53 type mark?

No idea whether we can keep that going though, still bricking Burton at home on Saturday, absolutely massive

46, 46, 40 last 3 seasons

 

[Bartonyellow]

I still think it’s a monumental task to get out of the bottom four for any of us in it.
We have all hit decent form but are no closer to the pack due to the form of those above. And when we all inevitably hit a bad patch we could be even further adrift.
We are unbeaten in six yet are still 4 points adrift having played a game more.
It’s not done and dusted but in reality there is little margin for error.
I see 3 of us sinking and one making a run for the lifeboats pretending to be a woman.

 

[AmberAndy]

Well cheerio folks it’s been nice.

 

[Bartonyellow]

Well cheerio folks it’s been nice.

It’s February- still time to get closer. 7 points is not insurmountable.

 

[AmberAndy]

If we couldn’t win today we will never win. Totally game over

 

[BRFC_Gas]

I think anyone starting Gibbons and Loft are in trouble, both L2 level at best

 

[Throbber_for_Dunk]

Gibbons is fine. Loft was the loft we were all promised today.

But yeah, today's result is the last bit of hope gone. This side, under this manager, are not suddenly going to hit play off form, so we're finished.

 

[denzel ecfc]

I think anyone starting Gibbons and Loft are in trouble, both L2 level at best

Neither were great, Gibbons is a gobby t###, lucky not to get carded for dissent imo.

 

[dannylad01]

Salop just need to stay in touch until the end of this month and the fixture list looks more kind on paper (barring Birmingham and Wycombe away). From March onwards, we've only got the top 2, Reading and Barnsley of the current top half left to play. We've also got all of the bottom 8 (except for ourselves of course), so still in our own hands.

Some massive six pointers in early March, with the games from 1 March being:

1/3 Peterborough (a)
4/3 Bristol Rovers (h)
8/3 Exeter (a)
15/3 Burton (h)

That run is likely to define our season

 

[Gassy]

Salop just need to stay in touch until the end of this month and the fixture list looks more kind on paper (barring Birmingham and Wycombe away). From March onwards, we've only got the top 2, Reading and Barnsley of the current top half left to play. We've also got all of the bottom 8 (except for ourselves of course), so still in our own hands.

Some massive six pointers in early March, with the games from 1 March being:

1/3 Peterborough (a)
4/3 Bristol Rovers (h)
8/3 Exeter (a)
15/3 Burton (h)

That run is likely to define our season

Wow, 4 cup finals there! After Wycombe we have Northampton, Rotherham & Shrewsbury with only Rotherham being the home game.

Get those games wrong and we could well be in the thick of it

 

[AdamStag]

We’ve crept upto 38 so 10 clear with a better GD

 

[denzel ecfc]

Consecutive home games against Northampton and Shrewsbury coming up, which could be pivotal

 

[Bartonyellow]

We’ve crept upto 38 so 10 clear with a better GD

You were never in this anyway. You are well clear.

 

[BRFC_Gas]

You were never in this anyway. You are well clear.

Mansfield are only 3 points ahead of us and Exeter. Unlikely, but still in it as are we

 

[Conker]

Mansfield are only 3 points ahead of us and Exeter. Unlikely, but still in it as are we

Out of interest, where do you draw the line? Blackpool? Three points ahead in 11th but played a game more.

 

[BRFC_Gas]

Out of interest, where do you draw the line? Blackpool? Three points ahead in 11th but played a game more.

Who knows. Its fine saying you only need 50 points or whatever, but if you are on a bad run where are those points coming from? Theres always one team that falls along with one from the bottom who pick up at the end.
However, considering how bad we have been and we are 7 points clear with a game in hand on most, you have to assume the ones at the bottom are really awful

 

[AdamStag]

I appreciate the view that being 10 clear with a better GD is something some would love, but when you’ve not won in 8 it would be foolish to outright ignore either.

 

[BRFC_Gas]

I appreciate the view that being 10 clear with a better GD is something some would love, but when you’ve not won in 8 it would be foolish to outright ignore either.

The good thing for you guys is that the bad run will surely end, especially given most of the season you have done really well

 

[Stocky]

Mansfield won't go down. They'll string a couple of wins together soon or 2 wins in 3 or something like that and that will be safety in all but name.

The bottom four seem to have been the bottom four for a while. They've actually been doing OK on the most part but a psychological blow for all 4 that they just can't seem to get out. The teams they need to suck in are picking up good wins here and there at a similar rate which will be disheartening.

I still think one of the current bottom four will survive and I'm sticking with Shrewsbury. Just need to keep someone like Peterborough down there close to them with 4 or 5 games to go. Not sure Peterborough would have the bottle for it. Maybe even a Wigan. Wigan didn't look anything like a relegation side on Saturday to be fair, a decent enough side in aspects but they're quite a young team that could struggle under a relegation dog fight.