European Union Referendum

[Hooped Wizard]

Great guy

Hopefully when we vote out he wins a by election and becomes the PM.

 

[smat]

I follow Hannan on Twitter, for balance. He's a posh sod who wishes Britain still had a massive empire. I still kind of like him though.

 

[The Paranoid Pineapple]

Oh come on. Nobody is saying we should strive to emulate inadequate prisons or immigration removal centres (tbh we have some of those already). The argument here is about a fundamental point of principle. Australia takes its refugees directly from the UN. It refuses to accept people who randomly show up. Is that a sensible approach? Yes, I think it probably is. The numbers of people making the perilous journeys have reduced drastically thanks to Australian Government policy.

The last year for which stats are available shows that Australia took in almost 200,000 permanent migrants, including 14,000 on its humanitarian programme. That's not counting another 400,000 temporary migrants (students, people with short-term business projects etc). I know people love to attack horrible old racist Australia but it doesn't appear to be a view based in reality.

You can hardly take the detention centres (and their cruel and inhumane conditions) out of the equation; they're a key component of Australian border policy. In addition to the concerns over the Nauru and Manus Island centres, the policy of tow-back has also attracted criticism (the UN refugee agency having suggested that this may be in breach of international law) as has the refusal to resettle any of the arrivals in Australia. So far as I can tell relatively few of these criticisms have much do with a perception of Australia being "horrible" and "racist" (indeed, some of the condemnation is domestic - the Australian Human Rights Commission having criticised the policy of detaining children). No, the chief concern of the UN and Rights agencies is that the country is shirking its international responsibilities to refugees fleeing war and conflict - some have been returned home even if they face persecution whilst others are sent to impoverished nations ill-equipped to handle them. Even if you were to be charitable to Australia you'd find it difficult to conclude that their stance is particularly helpful in a global context. The boats may not be arriving on Australia's shores quite so often but the likelihood is that these people have simply become someone else's problem.

I'll happily admit that there's no obvious solution to this particular issue, and I do think Australia has the right to protect its borders, but we also ought to acknowledge that such a hard-line stance can have a terrible human cost.

 

[Alty]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-35665635

 

[Alty]

You can hardly take the detention centres (and their cruel and inhumane conditions) out of the equation; they're a key component of Australian border policy. In addition to the concerns over the Nauru and Manus Island centres, the policy of tow-back has also attracted criticism (the UN refugee agency having suggested that this may be in breach of international law) as has the refusal to resettle any of the arrivals in Australia. So far as I can tell relatively few of these criticisms have much do with a perception of Australia being "horrible" and "racist" (indeed, some of the condemnation is domestic - the Australian Human Rights Commission having criticised the policy of detaining children). No, the chief concern of the UN and Rights agencies is that the country is shirking its international responsibilities to refugees fleeing war and conflict - some have been returned home even if they face persecution whilst others are sent to impoverished nations ill-equipped to handle them. Even if you were to be charitable to Australia you'd find it difficult to conclude that their stance is particularly helpful in a global context. The boats may not be arriving on Australia's shores quite so often but the likelihood is that these people have simply become someone else's problem.

I'll happily admit that there's no obvious solution to this particular issue, and I do think Australia has the right to protect its borders, but we also ought to acknowledge that such a hard-line stance can have a terrible human cost.

I can really only repeat my point from earlier. Australia does accept it has obligations to refugees and it meets those obligations through the official channels. Permanently settling 14,000 people via its humanitarian programme is demonstrative of this. If you start engaging in whatabouttery with regard to where people hail from, when tow back is okay etc etc, you start confusing the issue. It's actually much fairer to have straightforward rules that are properly enforced.

I hope it goes without saying that conditions in detention centres should meet a minimum standard. Plenty of countries need to do better there (as they do with their prisons too).

 

[Ebeneezer Goode]

Confessions of a lonely, left-wing Brexiteer

[...]

What is this sudden passion for the EU? It is like football fans crying, “I love Fifa”. Such affection for a gargantuan, unaccountable, self-serving bureaucracy, synonymous with progressive, internationalist, bigger-together unity, yet as capable of taxing Google or stopping Russia annexing Ukraine as Nick Clegg in a Benetton sweater.

For my Europhile friends, the current arrangement is all win. I often wish the English working class had an exotic restaurant cuisine or made handicrafts which looked fetching against Farrow & Ball walls. Maybe then the middle class would find them charming, rather than the only group it dares treat as Untermensch. A Labour-voting Mr Fairtrade Coffee Bean jokes to me about shipping his Polish builders up to revamp his country residence because local tradesmen are more expensive and lazy. Some commentators dream of amputating the inconvenient Ukip-voting north or visit seaside backwaters to mock poorer compatriots for their weight and dress-sense. Companies don’t want to train these people: cheaper to buy some energetic graduate Poles. Why don’t they hurry up and die out.

Left social liberals and right neo-liberals alike see themselves as global citizens, cruising smoothly above crude national boundaries, with no more fealty to a Croydon builder than the bloke from Bucharest who undercut him. The former because it would be “racist” to care, the latter because they love cheap labour. But freedom of movement — which, let’s not kid ourselves, is the throbbing heart of the EU issue — doesn’t benefit everyone equally. If, for example, Romanian citizens who earn four or five times less than British workers are allowed unfettered access to our jobs market, people lose out. But who cares: they’re already poor.

In Ben Judah’s startling book This Is London, he describes the British builders who once earned £15 an hour but, after waves of migration, are down to £7. He notes the minimum wage is a fiction when Romanian labourers stand outside Wickes in Barking at 6am beating each other down to get a day’s work, just like dockers in the pre-unionised 1930s.

In broken northern industrial towns, companies such as Next, Sports Direct and Amazon, not content with an already cheap local workforce, prefer to recruit migrants via employment agencies because they have fewer rights. They, along with Lincolnshire’s agricultural towns, will vote overwhelmingly to leave the EU, and not because they are stupid. A 2015 Bank of England study showed net migration has driven down pay for the lowest paid. Across the economy, although employment is high, wages have stagnated because the pool of labour is almost infinite.

Moreover these voters have experienced huge and rapid changes in their streets and GP surgeries and their kids’ schools. These are not global but rooted citizens. Their identity, once attached to a job — being a miner, a steelworker — is now defined only by place. Islington lawyers and Shoreditch dotcom millionaires will not, like the people of Hexthorpe, in my home town of Doncaster, have 500 Slovak Roma move into their village in the space of months, bringing every kind of social problem from fly-tipping to knife fights. The well-off transcend community so care nothing for cohesion. They remain untouched by culture clash, overcrowding or fights for limited resources. Yet they condemn those affected — if they dare to complain — as bigots.

[...]

 

[mnb089mnb]

I for one am looking forward to wage increases across the board under our new UKIP and Tory overlords once the UK leaves the EU.

 

[Aber gas]

Confessions of a lonely, left-wing Brexiteer

[...]

What is this sudden passion for the EU? It is like football fans crying, “I love Fifa”. Such affection for a gargantuan, unaccountable, self-serving bureaucracy, synonymous with progressive, internationalist, bigger-together unity, yet as capable of taxing Google or stopping Russia annexing Ukraine as Nick Clegg in a Benetton sweater.

For my Europhile friends, the current arrangement is all win. I often wish the English working class had an exotic restaurant cuisine or made handicrafts which looked fetching against Farrow & Ball walls. Maybe then the middle class would find them charming, rather than the only group it dares treat as Untermensch. A Labour-voting Mr Fairtrade Coffee Bean jokes to me about shipping his Polish builders up to revamp his country residence because local tradesmen are more expensive and lazy. Some commentators dream of amputating the inconvenient Ukip-voting north or visit seaside backwaters to mock poorer compatriots for their weight and dress-sense. Companies don’t want to train these people: cheaper to buy some energetic graduate Poles. Why don’t they hurry up and die out.

Left social liberals and right neo-liberals alike see themselves as global citizens, cruising smoothly above crude national boundaries, with no more fealty to a Croydon builder than the bloke from Bucharest who undercut him. The former because it would be “racist” to care, the latter because they love cheap labour. But freedom of movement — which, let’s not kid ourselves, is the throbbing heart of the EU issue — doesn’t benefit everyone equally. If, for example, Romanian citizens who earn four or five times less than British workers are allowed unfettered access to our jobs market, people lose out. But who cares: they’re already poor.

In Ben Judah’s startling book This Is London, he describes the British builders who once earned £15 an hour but, after waves of migration, are down to £7. He notes the minimum wage is a fiction when Romanian labourers stand outside Wickes in Barking at 6am beating each other down to get a day’s work, just like dockers in the pre-unionised 1930s.

In broken northern industrial towns, companies such as Next, Sports Direct and Amazon, not content with an already cheap local workforce, prefer to recruit migrants via employment agencies because they have fewer rights. They, along with Lincolnshire’s agricultural towns, will vote overwhelmingly to leave the EU, and not because they are stupid. A 2015 Bank of England study showed net migration has driven down pay for the lowest paid. Across the economy, although employment is high, wages have stagnated because the pool of labour is almost infinite.

Moreover these voters have experienced huge and rapid changes in their streets and GP surgeries and their kids’ schools. These are not global but rooted citizens. Their identity, once attached to a job — being a miner, a steelworker — is now defined only by place. Islington lawyers and Shoreditch dotcom millionaires will not, like the people of Hexthorpe, in my home town of Doncaster, have 500 Slovak Roma move into their village in the space of months, bringing every kind of social problem from fly-tipping to knife fights. The well-off transcend community so care nothing for cohesion. They remain untouched by culture clash, overcrowding or fights for limited resources. Yet they condemn those affected — if they dare to complain — as bigots.

[...]

Well either Judah is being deliberately misleading or he hasn't done his research ...http://www.payscale.com/research/UK/Job=Builder/Hourly_Rate
According to this guide the median rate is £11.00 with just a small percentage earning £7.00.

 

[Aber gas]

From the natural home of liberal regressives http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/...stry-leading-way-ending-squeeze-salaries.html Doesn't look like a skills surplus to me ....

 

[Ebeneezer Goode]

So do you believe that the availability of workers effects wages or not? You can't have it both ways.

 

[Aber gas]

So do you believe that the availability of workers effects wages or not? You can't have it both ways.

Not sure what you're on about mate, I'm making the point that whatever you imagine is happening regarding immigration and wages the figures don't back it up. I know you are opposed to immigration for many reasons but the wages arguement doesn't stand up.

 

[Tilbury]

http://www.theguardian.com/business...o-the-world-economy-says-draft-g20-communique
Osborne warns brexit would rock world economy.

 

[Aber gas]

http://www.theguardian.com/business...o-the-world-economy-says-draft-g20-communique
Osborne warns brexit would rock world economy.

They're worried but I'm not sure we should be, being able to negotiate our own trade agreements should be a positive for our economy as will be the ability to protect our industry.
I find the the rhetoric pathetic tbh. We are not intending on leaving the EU as a failed state with no option. If we leave it will be because the EU has failed us and many other countries.

 

[Tilbury]

We can't remove ourselves from the world economy, what happens in America, Europe and China affects us. Sure, but trade agreements take time, and who knows what kind of deals we will get, it's all unknown. America has already shown it's intent in preferring to negotiate with blocs', ahead of individual states, I'm worried an exit is going to leave us behind.

 

[Ebeneezer Goode]

Not sure what you're on about mate, I'm making the point that whatever you imagine is happening regarding immigration and wages the figures don't back it up. I know you are opposed to immigration for many reasons but the wages arguement doesn't stand up.

If you accept the figures in the article and it's premise of labour supply driving wages, then we can actually extrapolate from those numbers that wage stagnation must be happening in certain professions in order for the average rise to be at 1.8% while over 10% for some.

 

[Aber gas]

If you accept the figures in the article and it's premise of labour supply driving wages, then we can actually extrapolate from those numbers that wage stagnation must be happening in certain professions in order for the average rise to be at 1.8% while over 10% for some.

You posted a article from the Times which quoted Judah in reference to falling wages due to immigration. The author and yourself have consistently cited wage deflation amongst skilled trades in the building trade as examples of the negative effect of skills surplus brought about by immigration. This is clearly not happening. Not sure how much clearer I can make it.

 

[SUTSS]

There is a lot of talk about Scotland being take out against their will but if there was a slim win for leave in England that England could be kept in against it's will. How does that work with the narrative of English oppression of Scots?

 

[mnb089mnb]

There is a lot of talk about Scotland being take out against their will but if there was a slim win for leave in England that England could be kept in against it's will. How does that work with the narrative of English oppression of Scots?

I guess the 'narrative' would be if 'England' was so desperate for Scotland to stay, then they have to allow the to have their vote as part of the UK.

 

[Furry Beaver]

Interestingly very close in this poll!

I would vote to leave as i think the set up of the EU is all wrong and undemocratic and there are a lot of failing economies there that drag it down such as Greece and Portugal.

An exit would more than likely trigger a second referendum in Scotland though with the SNP who have hijacked the country claiming that everyone in Scotland is pro Euro which isn't the case at all. I don't think i could live through another referendum though which makes it a tough decision.

 

[Conker]

We can't remove ourselves from the world economy, what happens in America, Europe and China affects us. Sure, but trade agreements take time, and who knows what kind of deals we will get, it's all unknown. America has already shown it's intent in preferring to negotiate with blocs', ahead of individual states, I'm worried an exit is going to leave us behind.

I don't think we have to worry about that considering our importance in the world economy to be honest. Especially with America considering the level of cooperation and investment we have with each other.

 

[blade1889]

I cant see that it would effect much wrt trade deals.

Maybe I'm naive but if they wanted to stop trade with us then we'd do the same. It would benefit everyone to keep trade the same!?

 

[Ebeneezer Goode]

You posted a article from the Times which quoted Judah in reference to falling wages due to immigration. The author and yourself have consistently cited wage deflation amongst skilled trades in the building trade as examples of the negative effect of skills surplus brought about by immigration. This is clearly not happening. Not sure how much clearer I can make it.

I understand precisely what you're saying, you're just wrong, and the article you posted demonstrates that fact. Without wage deflation those numbers don't add up. You can't take an average of the whole sector and then extrapolate from that that every single profession involved is not experiencing wage deflation, especially when some professions are experiencing inflation over five times the average. Now, that doesn't necessarily prove that worker surplus is the cause, but it certainly refutes your claim that those figures prove it doesn't exist.

 

[Aber gas]

I understand precisely what you're saying, you're just wrong, and the article you posted demonstrates that fact. Without wage deflation those numbers don't add up. You can't take an average of the whole sector and then extrapolate from that that every single profession involved is not experiencing wage deflation, especially when some professions are experiencing inflation over five times the average. Now, that doesn't necessarily prove that worker surplus is the cause, but it certainly refutes your claim that those figures prove it doesn't exist.

All I've read from you regarding wage deflation in the building sector is a few anectodal statements from your "friends" and a load of waffle. Just because something doesn't fit into your narrative doesn't make it wrong. We could go into every job, trade and profession in the country and find examples of both wage deflation and inflation but it's not really relevant, you cited skilled trades as being negatively effected by a skills surplus brought about by immigration and the figures suggest that's not the case. I don't really understand why you are pressing the point, there are loads of decent reasons for us to leave the EU but this just isn't a valid one.

 

[mnb089mnb]

I don't really understand why you are pressing the point

Because EB never believes he is wrong. Even when he is.

 

[Ebeneezer Goode]

All I've read from you regarding wage deflation in the building sector is a few anectodal statements from your "friends" and a load of waffle. Just because something doesn't fit into your narrative doesn't make it wrong. We could go into every job, trade and profession in the country and find examples of both wage deflation and inflation but it's not really relevant, you cited skilled trades as being negatively effected by a skills surplus brought about by immigration and the figures suggest that's not the case.

They don't though, that's the problem. What they do suggest is that the opposite was true of more skilled professions than not in 2014. That's not the same as refuting the point that surplus workers are causing wage deflation. The two are not mutually exclusive, and actually, if you look at the average and how high inflation is at the top end, the numbers suggest that wage deflation very likely is an issue.

I don't really understand why you are pressing the point, there are loads of decent reasons for us to leave the EU but this just isn't a valid one.

If you were making the claim that it isn't a massive issue, or it's less of one than it's been made out to be, then fair enough, but you're making claims with far more scope than the evidence supports. To suggest that the average wage inflation of skilled jobs proves that wage deflation due to worker surplus isn't happening is like citing the average wage as proof that poverty isn't a problem. It's a non sequitur.

 

[Aber gas]

They don't though, that's the problem. What they do suggest is that the opposite was true of more skilled professions than not in 2014. That's not the same as refuting the point that surplus workers are causing wage deflation. The two are not mutually exclusive, and actually, if you look at the average and how high inflation is at the top end, the numbers suggest that wage deflation very likely is an issue.



If you were making the claim that it isn't a massive issue, or it's less of one than it's been made out to be, then fair enough, but you're making claims with far more scope than the evidence supports. To suggest that the average wage inflation of skilled jobs proves that wage deflation due to worker surplus isn't happening is like citing the average wage as proof that poverty isn't a problem. It's a non sequitur.

It was you that brought up the deflation of skilled worker's wages to make your point. I'm pointing out that this isn't the reality. You originally cited the deflation of wages in the skilled trades as an example of skills surplus caused by immigration and then posted a poorly researched article quoting a similarily poorly researched book as evidence.
Skilled workers in the building trades aren't suffering from wage deflation however much you want it be the case.

 

[Ebeneezer Goode]

It was you that brought up the deflation of skilled worker's wages to make your point. I'm pointing out that this isn't the reality.

[...]

Skilled workers in the building trades aren't suffering from wage deflation however much you want it be the case.

Again, you're confusing wage inflation in an economic sector with an absence of wage deflation among different professions within that sector. If the average rate of inflation can be over 10% in some professions, then there has to be deflation in others in order for the average across the board to be dragged down to 1.8%. The article you're citing doesn't prove your point, it refutes it.

You originally cited the deflation of wages in the skilled trades as an example of skills surplus caused by immigration and then posted a poorly researched article quoting a similarily poorly researched book as evidence

Um, no I never. I made no link between the two. That discussion was over. You just plucked that line out of a six paragraph excerpt.

 

[Arkan]

 

[Captain Scumbag]

^
Great to have the barmy bastard on board. Indescribably envious of his matching T-shirt and screensaver.

 

[Veggie Legs]

Again, you're confusing wage inflation in an economic sector with an absence of wage deflation among different professions within that sector. If the average rate of inflation can be over 10% in some professions, then there has to be deflation in others in order for the average across the board to be dragged down to 1.8%. The article you're citing doesn't prove your point, it refutes it.

No there doesn't. All you can conclude is that some professions have wage inflation of less than 1.8%.