European Union Referendum

[blade1889]

I think I wrote that in a bad mood when I heard on the Beeb that Greece was using the negotiations to get concessions on its bailout package...

What I've seen in the last few days is just further evidence of the dysfunctional nature of the organisation. From the outside at least - living in Asia - it just appears that the EU is locked in a never-ending cycle of Crunch Talks, invariably seeking last-minute-half-arsed-deals to crisises that they had a hand in creating.

Maybe I'm being sucked into the media sensationalism, but I'm beginning to wander why we voluntarily want to be part of this Union.

Anyway, I'm not fantastically well informed on the matter, so it's been interesting reading this thread. My gut feeling is we'll vote to leave, basically as it'll be far easier to sell the negatives of the EU rather than the positives aspects, and subsequently sway the floaters towards an exit.

Fair enough, I'm also not in the country so try and stay well-informed but it ain't easy!

My gut is that we're a country that's happy with what we've got, or at least too scared to lose what we have to go with leave.

 

[Aber gas]

Whilst I vehemently dislike Farage I can see their worth to the campaign even if I disagree with their politics. UKIP gained plenty of support, far more than the SNP, Greens and I'm pretty sure far more than the Lib Dems (without looking it up) in the GE and Farage can comfortably point to that as reason why he should be a key spokesperson for the leave campaign. Hes a charismatic person that clearly people do get behind, I think of friends and relatives and many of them are more likely to be swayed by the UKIP anti-immigration route than the left socialist. If they sit down and work together on a double pronged attack then it could work well for them, but pushing forward one side over the other will neglect one clear source of where votes could come from.

It's not about pushing one side of the debate over another. A campaign heavily loaded towards the issue of immigration and ignoring to an extent the more important issues (imvho) of lack of democratic accountability, massive and wanton waste, sovereignty and the creation of an unworkable and unwanted federal state alienates supporters and doesn't present a coherent argument. Farage is liked and respected by some people but is also rightly imo despised and widely mocked by a large portion of society. If the leave campaign wants to win this then Farage and his ilk are too divisive to be front and centre.

 

[blade1889]

It's not about pushing one side of the debate over another. A campaign heavily loaded towards the issue of immigration and ignoring to an extent the more important issues (imvho) of lack of democratic accountability, massive and wanton waste, sovereignty and the creation of an unworkable and unwanted federal state alienates supporters and doesn't present a coherent argument. Farage is liked and respected by some people but is also rightly imo despised and widely mocked by a large portion of society. If the leave campaign wants to win this then Farage and his ilk are too divisive to be front and centre.

I wouldn't disagree that those are more important issues but to many others they wouldn't be. A fair proportion of the 'out' votes will come from UKIP supporters so silencing him would be a bad move.

I wouldn't disagree though that the socialist arguments should be pushed forward more and aren't being. Someone on a different thread mentioned how being in a free movement union increases the flow of cheap labour thus benefitting the rich to the detriment of the poor. Its an argument then stuck in my head as a good one but not one that's I've seen repeated elsewhere.

 

[Alty]

Kate Hoey spoke well on Marr FWIW.

 

[Ebeneezer Goode]

Brexit vote could turn UK into a 'safe haven' triggering EU disintegration, say Barclays


#yeswecan

 

[Ebeneezer Goode]

Bankers say City 'would continue to thrive' in or out of Europe

 

[Captain Scumbag]

Looks suspiciously like the kind of "scaremongering" (not sure whether we're retiring this word or not) tactics that we were assured the leave camp wouldn't be employing in their campaigning!

A few additional points on this "scaremongering" business.

First, there's nothing inherently wrong with basing decisions on fear. Each of us does so literally dozens of times a day. Locking your front door when you leave for work in the morning is a fear-based decision. So is wearing a seatbelt. So is stopping at red lights. So is resisting the urge to call your boss an incompetent wanker. So is using contraception during an one-night stand. And so on.

It's basing decisions on fears that are irrational, exaggerated or entirely fictional that we ought to avoid. The charge of scaremongering is fair enough if someone is making arguments by evoking those kinds of fears, but identifying those kind of fears (distinguishing them from fears that have a strong rational and/or evidential basis) actually requires some thought, debate and analysis. And that sort of argumentation is often conspicuous by its absence.

That's my principal objection to people playing the scaremongering card. It's become a lazy and reactionary way of dismissing an argument one does not want to hear. So when Mr Cameron argues that leaving the EU would make us more vulnerable to terrorist attack, 'Eurosceptics' (we should definitely retire that term, BTW) immediately dismiss it as scaremongering bollocks. But quite often they don't explain why. It would be much better if they did, or at least tried. Ditto when IDS claims staying in makes us more vulnerable.

Increasingly these days, it seems that an argument merely having a "fear" component (e.g. it being an "if we do X, then Y is more likely to happen" type argument) is sufficient to provoke the charge of scaremongering. Such a charge ought to be backed by substantive arguments, reasoning, facts, etc. There should be at least some effort to distinguish an irrational fear from a rational one. But quite often there's not.

In all seriousness, I don't want the word banned. I just want people to use it more carefully, or consider charges of "scaremongering" with a bit more critical scrutiny. Not a partisan point. It goes for both sides.

 

[Hooped Wizard]

It's not a good idea for certain members of the leave campaign to start banging on about immigration in regards to the referendum. If the leave campaign is going to work it's going to need it's leftist element. I'm not going to campaign on the same platform as bigoted nutbags like ids and Farage. Someone needs to have a word and tell them to shssh their noise for a bit.

George Galloway is fairly left-wing isn't he.

I can't abide him mind.

 

[Aber gas]

George Galloway is fairly left-wing isn't he.

I can't abide him mind.

Yes,but he's a c***.

 

[Alty]

Farage, whatever you think of him, is a very effective politician and an excellent debater. I agree that it's important he isn't seen as the one and only face of the 'Out' campaign and that the Left are given a prominent role (if that involves reminding people of Foot and Benn, then so be it), but let's be honest - Farage is probably one of the 'Out' campaign's main assets.

I'm sure he'd avoid it, but if Cameron was forced into a one on one debate with Farage, I'm certain it would help the 'Out' campaign.

 

[Tilbury]

The UKIP GE vote is very much secured for the leave campaign. It will be the bigger group of tory voters (and labour to a lesser extent) who determine whether we leave or not. Out should keep Farage away and use other people to head the campaign.

 

[SUTSS]

Sounds more like Boris is a second referendumer rather than a true (be)leaver.

 

[blade1889]

The UKIP GE vote is very much secured for the leave campaign. It will be the bigger group of tory voters (and labour to a lesser extent) who determine whether we leave or not. Out should keep Farage away and use other people to head the campaign.

Are tory voters more likely to be persuaded by a socialist or Farage? Of the ones I know theres no chance of them siding with the socialist reasons.

 

[silkyman]

Farage isn't an excellent debater, he's a bar room shouter.

 

[mnb089mnb]

Who else is looking forward to voting in the Tory leadership election this summer?

Cameron or Johnson.

 

[Tilbury]

Are tory voters more likely to be persuaded by a socialist or Farage? Of the ones I know theres no chance of them siding with the socialist reasons.

They're not the only options though. Boris being the significant alternative now.

 

[silkyman]

Who else is looking forward to voting in the Tory leadership election this summer?

Cameron or Johnson.

Cameron is fucking off anyway, so there'll be another 'in' candidate throwing their hat into the PM ring.

Johnson as PM though? Holy shit. It doesn't bear thinking about.

 

[JaseTheVillain]

Is it wrong that I'd find it hilarious?

 

[Ebeneezer Goode]

Here's a thought... we all assume that Scotland will vote overwhelmingly to stay inside the EU, but surely if you're a Scottish Nationalist the best course of action for you would be to vote for Brexit and then force another referendum, no? I wonder if this will be taken advantage of...

 

[SUTSS]

Here's a thought... we all assume that Scotland will vote overwhelmingly to stay inside the EU, but surely if you're a Scottish Nationalist the best course of action for you would be to vote for Brexit and then force another referendum, no? I wonder if this will be taken advantage of...

There's bound to be a few that do that but I can't see it being too many.

 

[Cheese & Biscuits]

(Link to where I saw it: http://www.thepoke.co.uk/2016/02/23/ukip-brexit-song/)

 

[Abertawe]

Cameron & Ozzy are in a quandry. New world order forcing them to petition to stay in the EU, whereas any real Tory would vote overwhelmingly to leave. Illuminati got em between a rock & a hard place. The big corps want us to stay within the EU, Cams & Oz can't go against em, they'd get dead.

 

[johnnytodd]

George Galloway is fairly left-wing isn't he.

I can't abide him mind.

This sentence makes no sense.

 

[Alty]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-35636838

Interesting one this. A whole load of big firms have said they think we should stay in. Good, reputable firms like Vodafone who also think that big companies paying next to no tax is advantageous to the average Briton.

But there are some big names missing from the list. Perhaps most notably the biggest British company of all; Tesco. All the Japanese car manufacturers with a strong presence in Britain have also said they're not bothered one way or the other whether we stay or leave.

 

[SUTSS]

Toyota have said they'd prefer to be in.

I think a lot of companies wouldn't sign something political because they don't want to annoy any customers. That's not saying they'd definitely agree with this letter but them not signing it doesn't mean they endorse the opposite point of view.

 

[The Paranoid Pineapple]

Yes, I don't think the lack of a signature can be taken as an indication that those companies are "not bothered" about the outcome.

 

[silkyman]

I saw a guy on he news talking about it and his theory was that until there is a similar letter with companies demanding 'out' then it's 38-0 to the in camp.

 

[Ebeneezer Goode]

The whole debate is in danger of being swallowed up by the economic argument.

 

[AFCB_Mark]

The whole debate is in danger of being swallowed up by the economic argument.

I think economics will form the central point of discussion for the time being, understandably so, not that very many definitive conclusions can be drawn.
Come the spring, the migrant crisis will reappear and will probably be prominent in the media.

 

[SUTSS]

I think economics will form the central point of discussion for the time being, understandably so, not that very many definitive conclusions can be drawn.
Come the spring, the migrant crisis will reappear and will probably be prominent in the media.

I think this is one of the reasons why Cameron wanted the referendum in June. The migrant crisis is likely to get to it's worse in the late summer/early autumn again and that would sway people.

The general election and the scottish referendum both seemed to come down to the two sides arguing about economics as well so I don't think it's any surprise.