European Union Referendum

[Ebeneezer Goode]

The status of Britain as a world power is massively downplayed in my view. We have an economy larger than Russia's and a far greater reach in terms of power projection and soft power too. If Britain isn't a world power then the world only has one, maybe two at a stretch. We talk up Russia because it's great to have that pantomime villain at hand, but they really have no more potential to exert military power globally than a country like France does, arguably less so. It's only their fossil fuels that makes up the difference.

 

[Alty]

The status of Britain as a world power is massively downplayed in my view. We have an economy larger than Russia's and a far greater reach in terms of power projection and soft power too. If Britain isn't a world power then the world only has one, maybe two at a stretch. We talk up Russia because it's great to have that pantomime villain at hand, but they really have no more potential to exert military power globally than a country like France does, arguably less so. It's only their fossil fuels that makes up the difference.

Agreed. I think it stems from the fact that there was a time in living memory - or just slightly beyond living memory - when we genuinely were the world's greatest power. There's a feeling that our power and influence has been diminishing ever since and so we need to tag ourselves to something else in order to feel important.

In reality we are an important player on the world stage. Just not to the extent we once were nor with same level of influence as a small handful of others. Which is fine. Doesn't scare me to the extent that I feel we have to give away democratic control of our own country.

 

[Madejski]

If the US went against us we'd have no power whatsoever though.

 

[Alty]

If the US went against us we'd have no power whatsoever though.

Yes, but they wouldn't. Because of the historical links and soft power we've been talking about.

We're not the world's hegemonic power any more but we are well placed and respected on the world stage.

 

[Martino Knockavelli]

 

[Dr Mantis Toboggan]

tis interesting to wonder how much of our power is, in essence, afforded to us by the u.s. in a diversification of theirs. our power and our standing in the g8 and the un security council is due to them. if the u.s. didn't require a foil in international diplomacy i'd wager we'd sit in far less councils and the like. going to the extreme, if the u.s. wasn't a liberal, republican state, and didn't (half-heartedly) promote an international legal, diplomatic and economic community, then we'd have the commonwealth and that'd be it. i don't think there's ever been a more pronounced power in history than the u.s. think you'd have to look to antiquity for a comparable hegemon and that 'd obviously not be be a global one. their commitment to capitalism and internationalism has dictated not just the alliances of today but the power levels of their allies and opponents (relative to each other) as well. eb is right we do downplay our power, but we certainly downplay america's too. we're in the running pack behind them with a few others nipping at our heels

 

[SUTSS]

There is also the issue about people saying that we would be like Norway, I can't see how that arrangement could possibly be better.

 

[Alty]

There is also the issue about people saying that we would be like Norway, I can't see how that arrangement could possibly be better.

I don't think many British Eurosceptics actually want a Norway-esque arrangement. Norway's deal suits them because of their particular circumstances, particularly with natural resources. Places like Norway and Switzerland are cited simply to remind people there are developed Western European countries that prosper outside the EU. The world doesn't fall in just because you're not full members of the club.

 

[Alty]

By the way, following on from Scumbag's point earlier, former Italian Prime Minister Enrico Letta gave a public lecture/Q&A at the London School of Economics recently on the possibility of Brexit and the future of the EU more generally. It's available as a podcast if anyone's interest.

Really quite disturbing stuff. This guy represents the European political class perfectly and he talks quite openly about the fact that the nation state is on its last legs. The answer to Europe's problems is a federal superstate. We need an EU Finance Minister and an end to national autonomy to save the Euro and safeguard the future of the European people. Complete fanaticism.

I appreciate that few people have the spare time to start digging for evidence of how the EU might head, but there's plenty of worrying stuff out in the public domain. Fancy a pan-European Justice System based on the Napoleonic Code? The foundations are there: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Public_Prosecutor

 

[Art Morte]

The fundamental problem with the EU is that for something that's not exactly necessary to have, it's become too complicated and extensive. Works fine in good times, but the moment when issues arise where one solution doesn't work for all, you are bound to have discontent. The same rules don't work for everyone on immigration. The single currency doesn't work the same for everyone. We have on-going economical difficulties here in Finland and many seem to think that the euro is too strong for our economy in these circumstances. If we had our own currency it would be less valuable and would help our exports, that we are dependent on. This same applies to countries like Greece or Spain. The EU expanded too rapidly both in terms of countries taken in and in terms of its regulations for its members. In principal I like the idea of the EU a lot, that European countries - who do share a lot of the same values, culture and view of the world - come closer together in order to develop a well-working internal market, gain increased global political power and create a sense of security that we're all in the same boat here, everyone will be taken care of and times of war and violence in Europe are over. In principal I like the thought of togetherness within Europe. It's just been implemented too quickly and extensively.

 

[AFCB_Mark]

Really interesting FT piece here regarding how a Brexit might be the first step towards a wider EU fall out. Although I'd argue Greece was at least a couple of steps already!

"Donald Tusk, European Council president, has warned that Britain’s “negotiation and referendum” strategy has already set a dangerous trend whatever the outcome of the British vote; the French National Front is among the parties demanding EU reforms to be put to a referendum."

"There is a debate on whether to highlight these concerns in the referendum campaign, with some arguing that some voters might be more inclined to vote for a Brexit if they thought it could help to bring down the whole EU."

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/79624872-d624-11e5-8887-98e7feb46f27.html?ftcamp=published_links/rss/brussels/feed//product#axzz40WXXRfDL

This is a view shared by the Czech PM, Mr Sobotka said: "I am concerned about a domino effect, which means that if the United Kingdom leaves, the reaction will be a sort of wave of nationalism and separatism, which could tear apart the whole of Europe."

"If I had the right to vote in the referendum, I would vote for Britain to remain in the European Union," he added, according to the TV."

We also see murmurs in Spain and obviously well documented in Greece.

It's an interesting angle on the topic and how this doesn't just affect ourselves, but possibly the entire project. It's easy to get wrapped up in our own politics.

The strategy call on the IN side as to possibly not bringing this up, because doing so may actually push people towards voting out deliberately because they might like the idea of destabilising the whole EU, is quite a funny point!

 

[Dr Mantis Toboggan]

what aspects of the eu experiment have worked particularly well, out of interest? i, like many i assume, find my loyalties lie more with the concept of internationalism rather than with the eu itself. if we were to start from scratch what could we salvage

 

[Art Morte]

what aspects of the eu experiment have worked particularly well, out of interest? i, like many i assume, find my loyalties lie more with the concept of internationalism rather than with the eu itself. if we were to start from scratch what could we salvage

The single or free market is probably the best thing about the EU, that there are no barriers for trade within the EU. It puts businesses in different EU countries on the same line and brings more choices to customers without artificially altered prices due to different tax or import barriers.

The free movement principle is good when it comes to travelling, but doesn't work the same for immigration within the EU. Some places, like the UK or Germany, will attract a lot of inter-EU immigration while places like Bulgaria will have a lot less immigration. Mind you, strong economies like the UK or Germany will also attract some of the most talented workers from weaker economies. I'd keep the free movement for travelling, but on actual immigration it should be altered, bring back quotas or something.

The EU acting as one in foreign policy and foreign trade issues is also mostly good, imo. That non-EU countries cannot bully a single EU country in foreign politics or trade issues. There is political and economical power in the togetherness of the EU. If you mistreat one EU country, you are damaging your relationship and trade prospects with the whole of the EU.

So, there are definitely good things about the EU, if you ask me. Some limitations should be (re-)introduced to immigration. And I think there are too many nations, too wide a range of very different economies, in the monetary union, but that's perhaps not directly related to the rest of the EU. I'd like to keep most of the EU, but scale down on some things.

 

[AFCB_Mark]

I think if the EU had it's time again, it'd be fair to say it wouldn't have expanded so quickly or been so aggressive in pushing the single currency to all corners. In general less aggression in mashing together and homogenising disparate values, cultures and geo-political outlooks, which causes member nations to feel that their independence is threatened.Obviously migration has snowballed beyond what I'm sure the original intentions were.

There's plenty of logic and benefit to be gained in free flowing of finance and trade, or speaking with one voice on the global level where Europe's goals and values are mutual, bringing representatives from each member nation together to discuss pan European or worldwide issues and encourage collaboration in general, large infrastructure etc. Just a generally less dogmatic and regimented approach.

 

[George Reilly's Hairpiece]

I would vote to leave but I don't see an overall "No" vote as a definitive act that will see us leave. The EU can't afford to let the UK leave. A No vote though might be the best chance we have of being able to have a proper renegotiation and not the charade that is currently taking place in Brussels.

 

[mente captus]

its really weird that a country called united kingdom governed from London is saying that a united europe governed from Bruxelles does not work.



all the time is an give me here and give me there from the island.....i am sick of it....dont hit the door on your way out

 

[Dr Mantis Toboggan]

oh i remember u. always bitching about england/the uk on tff

 

[nousername]

Seeing the circus of a negotiation taking place in Brussels has probably tipped me towards leaving. National interest clearly trumps any notion of pooling resources/risk for the common good.

 

[.V.]

If we vote to leave, surely the EU will not treat Britain favourably. They're going to want other countries to not even consider leaving.

 

[JaseTheVillain]

its really weird that a country called united kingdom governed from London is saying that a united europe governed from Bruxelles does not work.



all the time is an give me here and give me there from the island.....i am sick of it....dont hit the door on your way out

Let's be honest, the only reason your own country and the other big players in the EU don't moan is because they haven't got the bollocks to. To be honest, no one seems to get a great deal out of the union. Napoleon and Hitler wanted a closer Europe too, I believe? The state of Germania seems to be coming true regardless though, as, let's face it, all of Europe bar us (as usual) will tow the line with Germany, if we leave, you'll have free reign to finally rule Europe. Have fun.

 

[mnb089mnb]

Haha ffs.

 

[Ebeneezer Goode]

Michael Gove now joining the out campaign.

its really weird that a country called united kingdom governed from London is saying that a united europe governed from Bruxelles does not work.

Not really, given that it's demonstrably true, while our union has lasted 300 years. It also shouldn't be a surprise that Scottish people and English people, for example, have a bit more in common than Greeks and Danes. There's never going to be any possibility of stability so long as "a solution that suits everyone" is really just a euphemism for a solution that suits France and Germany.

 

[blade1889]

Seeing the circus of a negotiation taking place in Brussels has probably tipped me towards leaving. National interest clearly trumps any notion of pooling resources/risk for the common good.

Honest question, why is it a circus? Only really read BBC articles but seemed fairly 'ok' from them.

Interesting point .V. on how they'd treat us, guess it depends how much they value our imports and exports. Treat us poorly with the latter and the former will be reduced by us.

I'm still undecided, a lot for me will come down to the vague 'ever closer union'. I do not want there to be a risk of us being pushed into the euro in future because I cant see us being tied so strongly to the economies of Greece et al. as positive.

 

[Super_horns]

Sounds like a deal has been agreed - who blinked first?

 

[blade1889]

Sounds like a deal has been agreed - who blinked first?

If its Dave then it'll show how little we can change in the EU even with the threat of leaving and push the 'out'campaign forward.


But then that will be countered by Gove joining the out campaign...maybe hes secretly in but knows hes hated!?

 

[Ebeneezer Goode]

"EU-UK deal includes seven-year brake on welfare payments and UK safeguards to protected City of London"

I suspect this is misleading, and what it actually is is a staggered 7 year period where migrants get more the longer they've been here.

 

[JaseTheVillain]

"EU-UK deal includes seven-year brake on welfare payments and UK safeguards to protected City of London"

I suspect this is misleading, and what it actually is is a staggered 7 year period where migrants get more the longer they've been here.

Not to forget "Another sticking point, child benefit curbs, will apply to existing claimants from the start of 2020." That, for me isn't good enough. Either change the rules now, or don't bother, don't fuck us around with 7 years of being able to do something, then 4 years until we can apply the other.

 

[The Paranoid Pineapple]

Heard any scaremongering from the 'Out' camp yet? Genuine question. What I've heard thus far has been more about appealing to people's patriotism (not in the sense of hating anyone else, but of rediscovering our national self-confidence), Atlanticism, re-engaging with the Commonwealth, a global future, more freedom for business, regaining control of our borders etc etc. You might think some of this is pie in the sky/unachievable, naive or in some cases just undesirable. But I don't think any of it can be labelled scaremongering.

The 'In' campaign have focused on one rather nebulous concept, namely that of "being part of a strong bloc" in the face of enemies. Quite what EU membership has to do with feeling safe from ISIS and/or expansionist Russia I don't know, but hey. Arguably that's scaremongering because it implies we'd be in peril if we were to leave the EU, but perhaps I'm being a little unkind.

There have been the stupid comments about Calais 2.0 in Kent, which frankly was blatant scaremongering.

And there's been the implication that trade with Europe would reduce drastically and 3 million jobs could go post-Brexit. Which is also scaremongering.

Out of interest, as you're one of very few loyal Lib Dems I actually respect, what are your reasons for wanting the UK to remain in the EU? It's often said that people don't understand the EU, which is why they don't like it. In all honesty I think it's precisely the opposite. I was pro-EU until I actually learned a bit about the thing. At which point I got increasingly alarmed. If people were to learn how the whole thing actually works rather than being faced with an argument between the demand for straight bananas vs the random EU-funded art project in their home town, I struggle to see why they'd remain in favour of membership.

To which "out" camp are you referring? Aren't there about three at the moment? (hate myself for using this smilie). I can't claim to have paid very close attention to the campaign but I don't think the observation - that there's an awful lot of bilge written about Europe - is unfair; it's surely fairly unarguably that both the mainstream media and eurosceptic politicians are guilty of distorting or misrepresenting apparent "facts" about Brussels. I'm fond of Britain and don't think us an intolerant bunch by any means, but I am rather of the opinion that we possess something of an insular island mentality, inherently suspicious of those nefarious continental types and what horrors they might unleash on our great nation. To that end I'd argue that it's less the people at the forefront of the out-campaign that trouble me; it's the quality of the discourse (the cartoonish depiction of Europe as some awful bogeyman) that I find alienating. But anyway...

I'm not sure I'd regard myself as a loyal Lib Dem these days! I'm not an especially big europhile either. Frankly, I think the EU faces some very substantial challenges and one can only hope it will deal with them in a much more effective way than it has done to date (a right hash has been made of the eurozone and migrant crises, frankly). And as much as I remain wary of any move towards federalism, aware that some influential figures within the EU still view that as the end goal, I still find the arguments in favour of exiting the Union unconvincing. The utopian vision of a Britain that won't pay into the EU budget but will retain access to the single market and set its own immigration limits is pure fantasy. I see that this has been raised already but it does baffle me when Norway and Switzerland are promoted as examples of countries who can successfully operate outside the EU - it's a strange notion given that they both pay into the EU budget and observe most of its rules. Such a settlement for the UK surely couldn't rightly be regarded by eurosceptics as being anything other than Pyrrhic victory. And whilst the idea that we're a fairly powerful player and can negotiate our own deals holds true to an extent, so far as I see it we either a) exit the EU but surrender some sovereignty/relinquish any influence in order to retain access to the world's largest single market b) pursue trade deals with others giants but lose the negotiating clout of belonging to said market. I feel certain that Britain's influence on the world stage would diminish, a strange outcome for a country which likes to view herself as a big international player.

Frankly, while I'm fairly sympathetic to some eurosceptic arguments I don't think it's at all self-evident that exiting is a path that would best serve British interests. I feel certain that it will create uncertainty and upheaval and so I'll likely be voting to retain the status quo.

 

[Ebeneezer Goode]

I think the biggest myth of all is that being inside the EU somehow gives us added "clout" in trade deals. These are deals that we have next to no influence over, to the point that British representatives are asked to leave the room when they're actually being hashed out. Any advantage we get is diminished by the fact that said deal has to be tailored to work for an entire continent of varied economies instead of just our own. It's probably not a coincidence that these noises only seem to come from EU countries that don't want us to go, and Americans that want us in there as their proxy.

 

[The Paranoid Pineapple]

Might just add (to bolster my being receptive to a counter-argument credentials) that my choice of summer reading a couple of years ago was the late Teresa Gorman's great literary work, The Bastards. Not remotely on the same page as her or any of her fellow "Bastards" politically and I'm afraid I don't share her stance on Europe either but it's a pretty entertaining account of the rebellions over Europe which dogged Major's government. I imagine some of you may enjoy it.