European Union Referendum

[mowgli]

Can't decide whether he was once good but became a devil worshiper or was always an opportunistic ratbag.
Whatever his views he should in The Hague charged with war crimes,can't believe i was naive enough to vote for this self serving parasite

 

[Captain Scumbag]

I'm not going to reply to the individual points there but I agree with chunks of it..

Yeah, fair dos. I had a bit of time on my hands and wrote more than usual. I didn’t expect you to answer every point, and I'll avoid writing a quote-heavy response here. Just a few points I wish to comment on:

That feels like a reasonable role for referendums to play in representative democracy - as ratification for major constitutional changes the government wants to make.

I agree. My usual rule of thumb vis-à-vis referenda is to vote against big change unless the government advocates the change and makes a convincing case. I broke my rule on this occasion because the opportunity to fulfil a long-held political ambition was too great. I didn’t see it getting done any other way.

The EU referendum was different, in that very few people understood what a Brexit vote would actually mean. Part of that was the level of engagement, but also the terms of the vote were so ill-defined.

I would go a step further: no one knew exactly what Brexit would mean. But that isn’t because everyone in Britain is a clueless numbnuts on the subject (though most are); it’s because a lack of detailed certainty is inherent to the Brexit process.

Just think about the process in its most basic form. An Article 50 notification will initiate a 2-year period of negotiation. What Brexit will mean in practice will depend greatly on the outcomes of that negotiation. The outcomes will depend greatly on what the leaders of other EU countries are willing to agree to.

Viewed in this context, the idea that Mrs May can determine the ultimate ‘softness’ or ‘hardness’ of Brexit (implicit in much of the recent debate on the subject) is obviously fallacious. The government can choose what kind of Brexit to pursue in the negotiation and it can choose its negotiation strategy, but it can’t determine the outcome. If it could, it wouldn’t be a negotiation.

Remain did highlight this problem (or potential problem) during the campaign; alas, they didn’t do it very well. The likes of Gove, Farage and Hannan expressed unshakeable confidence that Britain will be fine because in the end rational self-interest will carry the day. It’s a strange article of faith coming from people who have spent years excoriating the EU (usually justifiably!) for putting political dogma before economic common sense, but they got away with it.

 

[Veggie Legs]

I think what people object to, with regards to a hard Brexit and the leave campaigners, is the path it'll lead us down in order to to be competitive. So legislating against workers rights, environmental/work place protections, opening up the country to products banned by the EU due to safety reasons etc.

I don't recall this being something the leave campaign were telling us would happen. Some in the remain camp did, but given it was being driven mainly by Dave and co, it was not a narrative they wanted to push.

That didn't take long...

 

[smat]

^^ I think that article is 5 years old

 

[.V.]

We're fucked aren't we.

https://uk.news.yahoo.com/no-deal-brexit-govt-is-bluffing-with-cards-123258985.html

 

[Abertawe]

We're fucked aren't we.

https://uk.news.yahoo.com/no-deal-brexit-govt-is-bluffing-with-cards-123258985.html

Because Ian Dunt says so?

 

[Veggie Legs]

^^ I think that article is 5 years old

Then it's even worse than I thought.

 

[johnnytodd]

Well me and the Mrs have decided to foster an immigrant when we leave the EU for good. You know just to do my bit.





















4 cans on the back of the head should do the job.

 

[smat]

Record numbers of EU nurses quitting NHS

The figures, released as part of a freedom of information act request, show that almost 2,700 EU Nurses left the NHS in 2016 compared to 1,600 in 2014 – an increase of 68%.

The Royal College of Nursing (RCN) discovered a 92% drop in the number of EU citizens working as nurses after the Brexit vote.

The Government said it would like to offer three million EU citizens the right to remain, but has refused to offer any guarantees, claiming doing so would lose the UK “negotiating capital”.

On the other hand, at least the City is calling for fewer regulations and lower taxes in light of Brexit.

lol @ lexiters

 

[Abertawe]

The city is of it's own.

 

[.V.]

Record numbers of EU nurses quitting NHS



On the other hand, at least the City is calling for fewer regulations and lower taxes in light of Brexit.

lol @ lexiters

The need for us to be 'competitive' will see us lose a shit load of our workers rights and tax breaks for the richest. #stickingittotheelite

 

[smat]

Trigger warning, snowflakes. Article 50 will be triggered on the 29th March.

 

[Abertawe]

Swansea is the city most dependent on the EU and they're stupid to vote leave they said but we just got a deal worth billions. It may pay for me to return to my homeland in the future, happy days.

 

[.V.]

https://www.ft.com/content/35dc3b9a-0d4f-11e7-b030-768954394623

 

[ProfessorGreen]

I'm off to Greece next month, would those in the know consider it wise to change my pounds to Euros before 29th March?

 

[silkyman]

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/u...-michael-gove-environment-drugs-a7649041.html

Yay. Unregulated medical testing! Slash and burn development!

 

[shane]

I know the Daily Mail is a backwards piece of shit but this is still a remarkable throw back.

 

[silkyman]

The telegraph asked for things that people will be most pleased to see the back of...

Apparently Brexit means higher electricity bills, lower electricity bills, killing newts and bendy fucking bananananas.

And allowing us all to work longer because some guff about doctors.

https://twitter.com/leohickman/status/846634268973518848

 

[Captain Scumbag]

Look, I appreciate your need to work through your post-defeat rage with link-heavy ‘contributions’ of this sort – hell, I even find something quite reassuring in their regularity – but I must ask, what with Article 50 being invoked tomorrow, whether you can imagine any future in which Brexit is not a terrible thing?

Or to frame the question another way: what, in your opinion, would be indicative of its success? Do you have any particular economic metrics in mind, or does the whole thing just bother you on a very basic existential and/or symbolic level? If, say, in 10 years' time the post-Brexit UK economy is booming and continental Europe is a shambolic mess, would us leaving the club still bother you?

 

[silkyman]

If that happens, then we have been very, very lucky indeed.

And no one has 'any particular economic metrics in mind'. Not even the people in charge of doing the fucking thing, as they invoke article 50 tomorrow to meet an arbitary deadline they set themselves.

It bothers me on a variety of levels.

 

[silkyman]

Not least, because this sort of thing fair fills you with confidence.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-39417715

 

[mowgli]

Benn is a total twat and his father would be ashamed of his son. Over 17 million of those who bothered to vote decided Brexit was the way forward for The UK and for idiots like Benn and other Labour MP's to try to stop what we voted for is a disgrace and another reason why Labour are as relevent as the Lib Dems in other words a joke.

 

[Alty]

Can't say you didn't try, Scummers.

 

[Captain Scumbag]

It’s a tricky question, TBF. My dad (pro-Remain) recently asked me under what circumstances would I admit Brexit had been a mistake. I couldn’t answer. That’s certainly not due to any delusions of grandeur on my part; I know I'm as fallible as the next guy*. Nor is it due to a paucity of imagination. My conservatism is rooted, more than anything else, in bog-standard pessimism; imagining things going tits up comes very naturally to me.

The problem was, the old boy was thinking in terms of economic consequences and I struggle to assess success or failure in those terms, especially when my guiding motivations aren’t economic. What price do you put on, say, the principle of government by democratic consent? Does a 10% drop in GDP make that unimportant or not worth it? How about 20%? The transient nature of economics affairs of course only adds to the difficulty.

But if someone voted Remain due to economic anxiety then they should be able to imagine a hypothetical scenario in which Brexit, either by luck or design, actually turns out okay. Just imagine the indicators of disaster and then imagine the reverse. Not lower GDP, but higher. Not lower GDP per capita, but higher. Not increased unemployment, but reduced. Not a declining average wage, but a growing one. And so on. If, on the other hand, they voted Remain for more sentimental** or existential reasons, imagining “being wrong” is much harder – perhaps impossible. I'm interested to know where Silky stands on this kind of thing.

* There are, admittedly, limits to this humility. For example, basic self-respect dictates that "the next guy" does not include Johnny Todd.

** In this context at least, I do not intend “sentimental” as a pejorative.

 

[silkyman]

I've been through all this several times in the past. It's not inherently impossible that it might all work out for the best. It just doesn't seem very likely at this point and I didn't think it was very likely during the debates before the vote.

The reasons I'm angry are many and legion, and one of which is that the best argument you have above is that I have to really try and 'imagine' that it's all unicorns and fairy dust when the best the government has come up with is mixed messages, a royal yacht and innovative fucking jam.

Every news story that comes out of the proceedings just shows how utterly incompetent those in charge are.

We have members of the committee who are supposed to be delivering the future of the country walking out of a meeting because they don't like anyone being negative, the day before the completely arbitrary deadline.

If someone, anyone, came out and said 'actually... this is going to be really difficult. We'd best make sure we know where we stand before actually starting the two year stopwatch' then I might feel a little less anxious. But as it stands, even people saying 'can our elected representatives have a gander at this' are labelled as undemocratic enemies of the people.

A question for you. You asked what I would feel if everything turned out great, and the answer is, great. I'm happy to be wrong if it's the best thing for the country. (I do disagree with the angle of not caring about the economy for ideological reasons) So. If, after two years of negotiations it's demonstrably clear that this IS a disaster and we are about to drop off the edge of a cliff, destroy the UK as Scotland and Northern Ireland both depart, and we would be clearly and unarguably be better off staying in the EU, should there not be an emergency break option for parliament?

Does an advisory referendum with a narrow winning margin where the winning side gleefully admitted to lying about all of their key messages hours after the result, really give a clear mandate for a PM, who is unelected by the population and head of a party currently under an electoral fraud investigation which could wipe out their majority, to pick and choose her own version of Brexit which involves directly breaking a manifesto promise that got her predecessor elected (and was denied repeatedly by the leave campaign) and can't possibly be the version of leaving the EU that was actually wanted by the majority of the electorate without the elected representatives of said electorate actually being given any meaningful say in the matter.....?

Yay democracy

 

[silkyman]

Benn is a total twat and his father would be ashamed of his son. Over 17 million of those who bothered to vote decided Brexit was the way forward for The UK and for idiots like Benn and other Labour MP's to try to stop what we voted for is a disgrace and another reason why Labour are as relevent as the Lib Dems in other words a joke.

And almost as many wanted to stay in, but pricks like you think we deserve no voice at all. Not even on what type of brexit we end up lumbered with. This isn't democracy, it's fucking mob rule.

 

[The Paranoid Pineapple]

Despite being a committed Remainer I actually found it easier to envisage a "good Brexit" before the referendum. I now struggle to see any circumstances in which this might conceivably not be a complete disaster. And actually, it's not merely the prospect of economic gloom that concerns me, as I thought would be the case. I think I've come to the realisation that I'm rather more of an internationalist than I thought I was because I feel a profound, and really quite surprising, sense of loss about the whole process of extricating ourselves from the EU and all it represents (to me that's a group of nation states working collaboratively, in all its messy, flawed glory). Whatever else it is, it seems so much more preferable than a retreat into insular, small-minded nationalism and xenophobia. This isn't a point I particularly enjoy making as it feels a bit cheap and people misconstrue it as an assault on all Leave voters but it is sadly unavoidable. The sheer nastiness that we witnessed during the course of, and in the wake of, the campaign has made me feel as though Brexit has already cost the country too much.

Perhaps I'll feel more comfortable and not quite so pessimistic about the process somewhat further down the line but, to date, I feel that the government has done precisely nothing to reassure fearful Remoaners that all will be ok. I can appreciate that it's difficult prior to negotiations, that only then will we have anything substantive, but it feels as though we're entering the process completely blind with a vague wishlist and haven't actually advanced very far from the "have cake and eat it" position. The government resisted all attempts for parliament to have any say on the matter and we still have no assurances on workers rights, on environmental protections, on Northern Ireland, on EU nationals living in the UK and a whole host of other issues that will have a profound effect on people's lives (if we're not meant to know this kind of stuff then it rather underlines the absurdity of the whole process). We have a feeble opposition, barely worthy of the name, and a rabidly right-wing, jingoistic press which rather makes one wonder who the fuck will be scrutinising the whole process. In the end parliament will get a laughable compromise - a vote as to whether to accept a potentially lousy deal or reject it and see the UK crash out on potentially ruinous WTO terms! And you'd struggle to say that the noises coming out of the government so far - confused and seemingly contradictory statements from different ministers, the Chancellor threatening to turn the UK into a tax haven if negotiations go awry - really inspire confidence.

If things turn out well economically (which I'm very much struggling to see) I'll be quite happy to revise my assessment. Perhaps less so if it takes a decade, two... three?? for any gains to materialise (that's a fairly substantial chunk of a person's life). And one must also consider that the UK will be expending an enormous amount of time and effort exiting a body which we agreed with 97% of the time. One wonders what we could have achieved if all the resources that are going to be committed to this process had instead been invested in sorting out looming or very real crises in housing, health, education and social care.

 

[Ian_Wrexham]

Look, I appreciate your need to work through your post-defeat rage with link-heavy ‘contributions’ of this sort – hell, I even find something quite reassuring in their regularity – but I must ask, what with Article 50 being invoked tomorrow, whether you can imagine any future in which Brexit is not a terrible thing?

Or to frame the question another way: what, in your opinion, would be indicative of its success? Do you have any particular economic metrics in mind, or does the whole thing just bother you on a very basic existential and/or symbolic level? If, say, in 10 years' time the post-Brexit UK economy is booming and continental Europe is a shambolic mess, would us leaving the club still bother you?

In the long run, it's going to be fine, isn't it? I mean, we're probably going to end up more or less where we were with the EU when the dust clears - whatever trade deals eventually gets agreed will mire us in the same red-tape as before, so I don't think there's any threat to our nation's pastime of getting angry at fruit.

The main big, scary consequences are for Northern Ireland - I still don't think I've seen any proper consideration of how the situation there will be resolved without a degradation of the peace-process.

The short term consequences are clearly pretty grim though - both in terms what will happen as an inevitable process of Brexit, the political opportunities it opens up for the Tories to reshape the country in their own image, and the damage the referendum and subsequent months have done to our political discourse.

Just as worryingly, it opens up the prospect of the comeback of the Lib Dems and also the threatened return of Tony Blair (so yeah, political opportunities for Tories).

 

[Captain Scumbag]

Just as worryingly, it opens up the prospect of the comeback of the Lib Dems and also the threatened return of Tony Blair.

I hate you.

 

[.V.]

What happens if we end up with a lousy deal? Will Farage etel hold up their hands or will they blame it on those nasty foreigners? Could we see a rise in nationalism if Brexit fails?