General Election 2015

[Aberstone]

It's not exactly been the best couple of days for the Conservative Party. George Osborne's 'car-crash' interview on the Andrew Marr show yesterday and Matthew Hancock's inability to answer any question put forward by the audience at the forum hosted by Victoria Derbyshire this morning.

Liz Truss' claim on Question Time last week that the Tory campaign has been the most positive seems utterly perverse, it's been repeatedly false claims that Ed Miliband stabbed his brother in the back and today's #SameOldLabour.

 

[The Paranoid Pineapple]

http://www.theguardian.com/commenti...liband-tories-parliament-daily-mail-telegraph

Good write up there.

Following on from the bizarre lies about unilateral disarmament, the Tories look like they're in full-on crisis mode now.

Yes, this is on the money. The Tory party and press don't seem to understand their own narrative. He's weak but he's ruthless; an awkward wonk, yet a smash with the ladies. If they think that unrelenting negativity and smear campaigns are going to deliver them an election victory I fear they may be somewhat disappointed.

How are the figures calculated? Is it primarily about the size of the majority? Because some 'safe' LD seats are definitely up for grabs.

Yes, this is true. I also think there are certain parts of the country where the vote may be somewhat volatile and unpredictable. I certainly think that's the case for some London constituencies that have an increasingly transient population and/or have experienced significant demographic changes.

A none too powerful 0.272 for me, anyway.

 

[Tilbury]

 

[BigDaveCUFC]

It's not exactly been the best couple of days for the Conservative Party. George Osborne's 'car-crash' interview on the Andrew Marr show yesterday and Matthew Hancock's inability to answer any question put forward by the audience at the forum hosted by Victoria Derbyshire this morning.

Liz Truss' claim on Question Time last week that the Tory campaign has been the most positive seems utterly perverse, it's been repeatedly false claims that Ed Miliband stabbed his brother in the back and today's #SameOldLabour.

second part is quite true, I must admit I'm swinging to being a Labour voter this one as it stands from being a Tory voter at the last one, ironically for similar reasons to the last election, but other way around.

Labour seem to be attempting to give some clear reasons (some will be flawed but they are trying) as to what to do going forward, while the Tory line this whole campaign seems to be constantly reminding everyone of the previous Labour Governments.......if we keep harping back to the past governments they wouldn't be in due to its late 80's, early 90's one....the past is the past, so move on.

add in their horrendous interviews so far and Cameron's total and utter reluctance to pretty much answer any public questions or go into debates and its as sif they want to hide and cover up everything when they do not need to.

Tory for me making same mistake as Labour did last time, too much attack on other party than giving us ideas moving forward.

 

[BigDaveCUFC]

Yes, this is true. I also think there are certain parts of the country where the vote may be somewhat volatile and unpredictable. I certainly think that's the case for some London constituencies that have an increasingly transient population and/or have experienced significant demographic changes.
A none too powerful 0.272 for me, anyway.

The Lib Dems for me have ran the worst campaign and it'll be why they are in serious risk.

They have a lot of seats in south-east which can be quite tory areas so with them being in this coalition maybe afew decided voting Tory this time is easier than bothering.

but Clegg should have been spending the last 12 months trying to focus only on them who voted Lib Dem last time and appealing to them on reasons why them getting into power was a good thing even if it meant selling out their ideas and how being in power again can help their cause.

instead he's just focused on trying to run a normal campaign which will win them no voters and without apologies and explanations to what good the coalition was its lost them afew voters aswell.

 

[merseyboyred]

Tories making extending & making Right to Buy easier a key election promise, when we're in the midst of an affordable housing "crisis" seems a really smart pledge...

4.5 million were already on Council House waiting lists in 2012 when they originally made it easier, they've fallen way off their pledge to replace the depleted stock from that already (~23,000 more houses sold off than replaced since the Government announced that in 2012).

 

[JaredSUFC]

www.voterpower.org.uk/

dont know if this has been posted before but quite interesting, see how much your vote is worth. where i am it's in 0.290, almost certainly Labour.

0.118 in Neath. In 2010 Labour had a majority of 9,772, and I can't see much of a dent in that this time around

 

[The Paranoid Pineapple]

The Lib Dems for me have ran the worst campaign and it'll be why they are in serious risk.

They have a lot of seats in south-east which can be quite tory areas so with them being in this coalition maybe afew decided voting Tory this time is easier than bothering.

but Clegg should have been spending the last 12 months trying to focus only on them who voted Lib Dem last time and appealing to them on reasons why them getting into power was a good thing even if it meant selling out their ideas and how being in power again can help their cause.

instead he's just focused on trying to run a normal campaign which will win them no voters and without apologies and explanations to what good the coalition was its lost them afew voters aswell.

Clegg appears to be preparing for coalition again. This seems inherently sensible given the polls but it also seems like the least healthy option for his party. They could really do with a spell on the sidelines - regroup, replace the leader, rediscover an identity. I say this with a certain sadness as a former Lib Dem voter but at the moment I'm not entirely sure who they are, what they stand for or what section of the electorate they're looking to appeal to. Disaffected Tories and Labour voters are increasingly seeing UKIP and the Greens as a natural home. In positioning the Lib Dems somewhere between the two main parties I'm not sure that they're really striking a chord with anyone. It's all rather frustrating.

 

[Ebeneezer Goode]

I don't think the Lib Dems will have to worry about the Greens for much longer. The more they open their mouths about the economy the more clueless they sound.

 

[Veggie Legs]

Got a letter from David Cameron this morning, is this the kind of privilege you get for living in a marginal constituency or does everyone get one?

 

[merseyboyred]

www.voterpower.org.uk/

dont know if this has been posted before but quite interesting, see how much your vote is worth. where i am it's in 0.290, almost certainly Labour.

1.107

I shall use my power wisely.

I feel that my current constituency is actually more likely to gain a stronger majority for the incumbent this time round, and my previous constituency more likely to change.

 

[Aberstone]

0.073. Put a blue rosette on a pig and it would still be elected to parliament here in Mid Bedfordshire. Luton North is 0.220, a safe Labour seat.

Edit: Ceredigion is a very safe seat according to that website, it's not, there's a high proportion of Welsh speakers in the constituency and the Liberal Democrats can't rely on the student vote again. Plaid Cymru will be going all in for it.

 

[The Paranoid Pineapple]

Put a blue rosette on a pig and it would still be elected to parliament here

Think your MP is living proof of this

 

[silkyman]

0.073. Put a blue rosette on a pig and it would still be elected to parliament here in Mid Bedfordshire. Luton North is 0.220, a safe Labour seat.

Edit: Ceredigion is a very safe seat according to that website, it's not, there's a high proportion of Welsh speakers in the constituency and the Liberal Democrats can't rely on the student vote again. Plaid Cymru will be going all in for it.

Similar here, giving me a 0.118

 

[Leewilson]

Think I'll be voting Lib Dem again. Their policies appeal the most to me personally really (not saying much mind) and I think the best realistic I can hope for is a Labour/Lib Dem coalition.

 

[.V.]

http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/apr/14/right-to-buy-children-tories-pledge

 

[Gladders]

http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/apr/14/right-to-buy-children-tories-pledge

I'm sure some people would love the right to buy children

 

[Ebeneezer Goode]

 

[BigDaveCUFC]

Labour trying their hardest not to win seats back i suppose.

From what i read they put signs up in Carlisle today (A Big Key Labour target in this election as it used to be Labour till the last election) and the signs were for the Lancaster Candidate and not the Carlisle one.

How inept is that really.

 

[Krazy8]

Think I'll be voting Lib Dem again. Their policies appeal the most to me personally really (not saying much mind) and I think the best realistic I can hope for is a Labour/Lib Dem coalition.

 

[Alty]

Another TV debate tonight. Opposition parties only. Likely to be a tough one for Miliband. He'll have 3 parties saying (correctly) that he's not really anti-austerity, plus a fourth saying (correctly) that Labour are going to have a hell of a struggle eliminating the deficit and starting to pay down the debt.

 

[BigDaveCUFC]

what he will lose on one hand by being the one attacked by other parties he will gain by the fact he has the balls to bother turning up.

not bothering will do abit of damage to Cameron and Clegg it just says bluntly that neither can defend anything they have done while in Government which is pretty bad when both are asking to be allowed in again.

If I were Labour I'd actually be quite happy for this event without Cameron because Labour's chances of losing/winning lie mostly with Scotland and it is therefore his main chance for a one-to-one vs the SNP

 

[Alty]

what he will lose on one hand by being the one attacked by other parties he will gain by the fact he has the balls to bother turning up.

not bothering will do abit of damage to Cameron and Clegg it just says bluntly that neither can defend anything they have done while in Government which is pretty bad when both are asking to be allowed in again.

If I were Labour I'd actually be quite happy for this event without Cameron because Labour's chances of losing/winning lie mostly with Scotland and it is therefore his main chance for a one-to-one vs the SNP

That last point is a good one, actually. Wresting a few seats back from the Nats is essential for Labour so tonight does represent an opportunity for Miliband. But at the same time, if Sturgeon performs better it'll put people off voting Labour in Scotland AND England. High stakes.

 

[AFCB_Mark]

Car crash interviews seem to be a reoccurring theme in this election. UKIP deputy Suzzane Evans made an absolute tit of herself on R4 yesterday.

The biggest UKIP boast in their manifesto is that all their spending is fully costed. Evans goes on radio and cannot answer questions on the cost of Trident, she didn't have a clue how much it would cost, gave one figure and then was asked if that was for one submarine or 4, ended up being just one, it became a farce.

She ended up complaining of a poor line and not being able to understand questions.

Also contradiction and confusion between the figures on allowed immigration between what she was saying and what Farrage had announced earlier in the day.

It was all painful listening.

 

[Cheese & Biscuits]

Car crash interviews seem to be a reoccurring theme in this election. UKIP deputy Suzzane Evans made an absolute tit of herself on R4 yesterday.

The biggest UKIP boast in their manifesto is that all their spending is fully costed. Evans goes on radio and cannot answer questions on the cost of Trident, she didn't have a clue how much it would cost, gave one figure and then was asked if that was for one submarine or 4, ended up being just one, it became a farce.

She ended up complaining of a poor line and not being able to understand questions.

Also contradiction and confusion between the figures on allowed immigration between what she was saying and what Farrage had announced earlier in the day.

It was all painful listening.

But they'll kick out Johnny Foreigner so who cares about policies?

Also, what kind of UKIP voter would listen to Radio 4 anyway?

 

[Martino Knockavelli]

Also, what kind of UKIP voter would listen to Radio 4 anyway?

Really? I mean, I listen to Radio 4, but it's certainly (at least partially) the terroir of a certain flavour of middle Englander. Lieutenant Brigadier Chumley-Smithe ringing up Gardeners' Question Time to ask about his begonias, and whilst he's on can he just make it known that he's jolly well not happy about that new pickaninny continuity announcer they've got, can't understand a blasted word he says!

Boschian grotesques with white socks and knuckle tattoos make for an easier stereotype, but this lot are surely part of the UKIP base too, no? (The Captain Scumbag wing of the party is what I'm saying, basically).

 

[Cheese & Biscuits]

I suppose you are correct. I had, mistakenly, lumped them all in to the latter category without thinking about the ex-Tory, middle-England vote. I apologise.

 

[SUTSS]

I agree with Martino but in a less eloquent way. UKIP's base is the poor coastal towns as well as large parts of the countryside with the middle class, radio 4 listening, Britain was better in the 1950s, type of person.

 

[Alty]

Also, some working class people listen to Radio 4, just as some read broadsheet papers. Shocking, I know.

 

[Martino Knockavelli]

Thank the good Christ you're here to appraise me of the situation down on the filthy ground, which I can scarcely perceive from the gilded throne here in my East Midlands Chambord.