General Election 2019

[Ebeneezer Goode]

If that’s the case, then there is more evidence of UK citizens wanting to stay in the EU than leave it.

Only about 20% of votes went to parties vowing to revoke Article 50. I personally think that Labour would have tried to keep us in the EU by hook or by crook, but that's certainly not what they campaigned on.

The SNP do have a mandate to pursue a second Independence Referendum, but I don't think that neccessarily gives Westminster a mandate to give them one.

 

[Gassy]

It’s not about revoking completely, it’s remain vs leave parties. Labour said they’d campaign to remain, Lib Dems/remain alliance is obvious, SNP remain - their votes outweighed Tory & Brexit. That’s both for EU elections and the general election, so that’s 2-1

I’m not saying it’s a mandate or anything, but you can’t have it both ways on majority of Scotland didn’t vote for SNP and therefore don’t want independence, but the majority of UK didn’t vote Tory but the majority do want Brexit.

I guess just agree to disagree on this one guys.

 

[Laker]

It’s not about revoking completely, it’s remain vs leave parties. Labour said they’d campaign to remain, Lib Dems/remain alliance is obvious, SNP remain - their votes outweighed Tory & Brexit. That’s both for EU elections and the general election, so that’s 2-1

I’m not saying it’s a mandate or anything, but you can’t have it both ways on majority of Scotland didn’t vote for SNP and therefore don’t want independence, but the majority of UK didn’t vote Tory but the majority do want Brexit.

I guess just agree to disagree on this one guys.

Hey I’m personally not against the Scots having a referendum. I just don’t see the case for it - the SNP (the only pro Independence Party in Scotland) hasn’t gained more votes in this election than previous elections, therefore I see no evidence to suggest a change in mood which would warrant a referendum.

Also I genuinely think that referendums shouldn’t happen often, especially on the same matter (otherwise where does it end?). I wouldn’t ordinarily want them to have another one on this basis and the remote case for another referendum in Scotland is because Brexit has happened in the interim.

But yes let’s agree to disagree. We’re clearly planes apart here!

 

[Fompous Part]

Looking at the results in a bit more detail this morning.

Favourite fact so far is Hugh Grant's 0% success rate. Every candidate he canvassed with lost.

A close second is that every defector MP (i.e. the Change UK lot and anyone else who left their GE2017 party but didn't seek approval via a byelection) got rejected as well.

The role of the Brexit Party hasn't received much attention, which makes sense as their presence in 'red wall' seats clearly didn't do the Tories much harm in the end. Nonetheless, they did do damage in some interesting Tory–Labour marginals. Think it's fair to say they saved Yvette Cooper, Ed Miliband, and Jon Trickett.

 

[Boletus Edulis]

I think it's more likely of a Catalonia situation tb?

Hmm, I would not put it past him to try and arrest the SNPs leadership.

 

[Fompous Part]

Interesting

 

[Boletus Edulis]

My twelve hour flight started just before 10 pm, so no idea what the result was until mid-morning on Friday. What strikes me as concerning for democracy is that the Conservative party is fairly mono in flavour now. The various counterweights on the centre and left barely exist. This is not inherently a political point, in the early nineties the right provided the counterweight to Major. The Conservative Party pretty much sees the world through one prism, with few or no other views. This is a dangerous situation, as this is when a Government is likely to make stupid decisions. So yes I don’t like the outcome, but the bigger concern is that the Conservative Party is now no longer a broad church - echo chambers do not make for good decisions.

 

[Gladders]

Looking at the results in a bit more detail this morning.

Favourite fact so far is Hugh Grant's 0% success rate. Every candidate he canvassed with lost.

A close second is that every defector MP (i.e. the Change UK lot and anyone else who left their GE2017 party but didn't seek approval via a byelection) got rejected as well.

The role of the Brexit Party hasn't received much attention, which makes sense as their presence in 'red wall' seats clearly didn't do the Tories much harm in the end. Nonetheless, they did do damage in some interesting Tory–Labour marginals. Think it's fair to say they saved Yvette Cooper, Ed Miliband, and Jon Trickett.

Best thing was Anna Soubry getting rejected! Worst thing was SNP picking up seats.

I think if Brexit party didn't exist, Tories would had more seats, certainly helped them not standing in Tory seats though. But even Hartlepool could have been Tory without Brexit standing.

 

[Gassy]

Best thing was Anna Soubry getting rejected! Worst thing was SNP picking up seats.

I think if Brexit party didn't exist, Tories would had more seats, certainly helped them not standing in Tory seats though. But even Hartlepool could have been Tory without Brexit standing.

Maybe, but works both ways. I knew a few of my family wanted to vote Brexit party, but couldn't because they weren't running there - so they had to vote Tory.

 

[Gladders]

Maybe, but works both ways. I knew a few of my family wanted to vote Brexit party, but couldn't because they weren't running there - so they had to vote Tory.

Hence the "certainly helped them not running in Tory seats"

 

[Gassy]

Hence the "certainly helped them not running in Tory seats"

Well..

In my defence...

You should have bolded it or something. You weren't being very clear

 

[Laker]

Interesting

That’s all fine but the election would have looked very different under PR - presumably I wouldn’t have been confined to Con, Lab, Lib or Ind for example, there’d be less to no tactical voting, the Brexit party probably wouldn’t have stood down any candidates etc. It’s interesting, I agree, but the numbers presented are largely meaningless.

 

[Ebeneezer Goode]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1205803831378006017

I want to believe this is real.

 

[Abertawe]

We told you before the referendum happened the blue collar Labour vote wanted brexit and leave would win. We told you nationalisation and socialist minded wealth redistribution policies would be popular in the midst of the coup. We told you to respect democracy when you made arguments for a second referendum.

Our above declarations put into manifesto policy and put to the election test resulted in Labour getting more votes than in '05, '10 & '15 and if you allowed for the SNP factor in '01 as well. This was achieved with a leader the bulk of the blue base considered to be an anti west, anti army, pro IRA, jihadi sympathising socially awkward retard.

We told you that to improve on the election success Labour needed to rid itself of authoritarian liberals intent on pushing through minority appealing consensus splitting policies. We told you that Labour being seen to adopt a nationalist stance intent on delivering brexit, ie the overwhelming sentiment of the blue base would be the way to go.

But nah you dickheads who never wanted or thought brexit would happen and were centrist pro remain protagonists in the midst of the coup got your way. Because you mix in & around London and went to some bants uni you knew better - Labour became remain and went with job creation policy which directly discriminated against white males.

What happens next because of the air you gave this nonsense? Dominic Cummings spearheads a nationalist brexit campaign and the Tories have all but wiped Labour out and have free reign to set whatever post EU rules they like. They will be re-elected as well. FTA with EU pretty much certain, trade with other countries and the kitty that was being saved for Gideon becoming PM still left over means Boris can't really fuck this up.

I don't know who reads this anymore but well done guys. smat max pagnell cardiff c*** with the numbers jockney pineapple -to differing extents you all knew better didn't you. You'll no doubt call for Keir Starmer, Lisa Nandy or Jess Phillips which should it happen will mean Labour become extinct at the next election. And no Corbyn should not resign immediately and allow the cuntrists an open door.

The incompetence of Corbyn, McDonnell, Starmer, Thornbury, Abbott, Gardiner, Ashworth for allowing this to happen is unforgivable. They should never have direct influence in the operations of the party ever again once the period of reflection is over.

 

[Abertawe]

The SNP won 45% of the vote in Scotland. The Green Party (1%) are generally pro-independence, so let's be super generous and say the pro-independence vote was 46%. The remaining 54% voted for pro-Union parties.

On every important metric (total votes, vote share, seats won, etc.) the SNP did significantly better in 2015, which was before the EU referendum. No doubt Sturgeon, Blackford, et al. will say this result provides a mandate for IndyRef2, but it's a nonsense.

It was good night for the SNP, and credit to them. But if you ignore seat distribution (i.e. FPTP nonsense) and look at vote share, there is little evidence that opinion in Scotland has shifted very much since 2014.

That's assuming everyone in favour of independence only votes for SNP which is retarded when the election prior to the referendum being called they only got 20% of the vote. If a ref can be called on the basis of less than 21% voting for IND supporting parties resulting in only 6 seats then it certainly can with 46% and 48 especially after brexit.

"there is little evidence that opinion in Scotland has shifted very much since 2014"

Fucking hell mate tell me you haven't convinced yourself this to be reality?

 

[Fompous Part]

That's assuming everyone in favour of independence only votes for SNP which is retarded when the election prior to the referendum being called they only got 20% of the vote. If a ref can be called on the basis of less than 21% voting for IND supporting parties resulting in only 6 seats then it certainly can with 46% and 48 especially after brexit.

IndyRef1 happened because the SNP won a clear parliamentary majority in 2011, allowing them to get the relevant legislation through the Scottish Parliament. They won that majority because there was a massive Labour-to-SNP swing between May 2010 and May 2011. This is very well documented.

The trend since 2011 is very clear: people who want independence vote SNP; people who want to stay in the Union vote Labour, Lib Dem or Tory depending on their socio-economic views. If you’re a social democrat who wants independence, why the hell would you vote Labour or Lib Dem?

Fucking hell mate tell me you haven't convinced yourself this to be reality?

Let’s look at the statistical trend since GE2010:

• 2011 Scottish Election – 45% voted SNP.
• 2014 Independence Referendum – 45% voted SNP / Independence
• 2015 General Election – 50% voted SNP
• 2016 Scottish Parliament Election – 45% voted SNP
• 2017 General Election – 35% voted SNP
• 2019 General Election – 45% voted SNP

Clearly, the high-water mark for Scottish Nationalism was in 2015, i.e. before Brexit. Since then, it’s fluctuated a bit but has never topped the 45% the nationalists achieved in the last referendum. This is despite Brexit providing the SNP with a perfect grudge and grievance narrative for a secession movement, Ruth Davidson flaking out, and at least 3 years of Westminster politics being an utterly dysfunctional shitshow.

Frankly, it’s a small miracle that the SNP aren’t polling at 55%+.

Trust me, I’m not in denial. I don’t do that. I am a conservative. I habitually err on the side of pessimism. I know perfectly well that the SNP achieved an impressive positive swing at this election, and I know perfectly well that that could continue over the next 12-18 months. The test will be the Scottish Parliament election in 2021. Right now, the SNP are polling at 45%, which is where they were in 2014.

 

[Fompous Part]

Abertawe
Your preference for next Labour leader?

 

[GTFCfish]

I think if Brexit party didn't exist, Tories would had more seats.

On the flip side though there are seats like Blyth Valley where the Tories won by 712 votes with 3394 for the Brexit Party of which the majority will have been Labour leave voters.

 

[smat]

smat

I know I look and sound like David Mitchell but this is not fair on me. Quite recently on this forum I was still arguing that the referendum should be respected by Labour. We would have been squeezed by the Lib Dems had we not changed tack, but the cost/benefit calculation was completely wrong.

 

[Stringy]

What are the next steps for Labour? I liked this leadership and thought we were going steadily after the 2017 result.

I don't want from this next leadership race a Tory in a red suit. I'd probably vote for a Tory in a red suit but I don't think that is what Labour should be.

Maybe the Tories will do the work for us and the country will go up in the flames after Brexit, or is that too much to hope for? Okay, I am willing to swallow my pride but seriously, what can we do? The situation feels pretty dreadful atm.

 

[Laker]

What are the next steps for Labour? I liked this leadership and thought we were going steadily after the 2017 result.

I don't want from this next leadership race a Tory in a red suit. I'd probably vote for a Tory in a red suit but I don't think that is what Labour should be.

Maybe the Tories will do the work for us and the country will go up in the flames after Brexit, or is that too much to hope for? Okay, I am willing to swallow my pride but seriously, what can we do? The situation feels pretty dreadful atm.

This is going to sound a bit sweeping but I think hard left or socialism is dead in this country. We’ve not had such a government elected in the UK since 1974 - if Boris sees out the full five years, it’ll be 50 years since a socialist government was elected.

So I think a centre left Labour stands more chance with the electorate. Not Blairite as such, but certainly liberally conscious.

 

[Stringy]

This is going to sound a bit sweeping but I think hard left or socialism is dead in this country. We’ve not had such a government elected in the UK since 1974 - if Boris sees out the full five years, it’ll be 50 years since a socialist government was elected.

So I think a centre left Labour stands more chance with the electorate. Not Blairite as such, but certainly liberally conscious.

I don't want you to be right. Didn't Labour win their most votes ever in 2017 on a reasonably socialist platform? There must be some other reasons that socialism isn't dead and buried. Everyone thought liberalism was dead at one point.

 

[Laker]

I don't want you to be right. Didn't Labour win their most votes ever in 2017 on a reasonably socialist platform? There must be some other reasons that socialism isn't dead and buried. Everyone thought liberalism was dead at one point.

Yes they won a ton of votes in 2017 after some good campaigning, but Labour was still outvoted by a dreadful Tory campaign.

Of course I could be wrong as much as I could be right. I actually think our politics is at its best when left and right challenge each other, when there’s a good balance to debates. I just wonder whether the hard left will ever win an election again.

 

[GodsGift]

Labour burying their heads in the sand and remaining a hard-left peer pressure group is the worst thing they could do. To win an election they've got to win over centrists like me. Labelling sensible centrist MPs as "Tories in a red suit" isn't going to help your cause.

Who do Labour represent now anyway? It's clearly not the working classes. Is it just students and intellectuals from the cities? This isn't a dig btw, because as someone that's never voted Tory and never will do, I'd love nothing more than an electable Labour party.

 

[Ebeneezer Goode]

Maybe the Tories will do the work for us and the country will go up in the flames after Brexit, or is that too much to hope for?

This is the definition of putting party before country. I don't think you're alone though, especially after some of the John McDonnell footage that has surfaced.

I don't want you to be right. Didn't Labour win their most votes ever in 2017 on a reasonably socialist platform?

I don't believe so. You got more votes Tony Blair last did, but then the population has increased by about 10% since then.

 

[BigDaveCUFC]

Labours best policy now is to just go to something simple and completely disown brexit now and abstain any voting for it and just simply state the public gave the tories the mandate to ‘get brexit done’

there is very little chance Tory can achieve a brexit suitable for garage and the erg without pretty much a uk wide recession.........either way the p*ss off a chunk of their base.

On top of that is battling between what uk wants and trump wants.....being able to keep ANY promises with the financial clout brexit will have

And trying to balance out needs for the north when they only deliver for the south historically, plus a battle coming up with Scotland.

looks good now but it could collapse quick, 6 months ago Tory was in labours collapsed state.

Brexit was always a barbed wire noose for labour, it’s vote is split to both extremes, the election has at least allowed them to remove that problem and move away from it.

 

[Stringy]

Labour burying their heads in the sand and remaining a hard-left peer pressure group is the worst thing they could do. To win an election they've got to win over centrists like me. Labelling sensible centrist MPs as "Tories in a red suit" isn't going to help your cause.

Who do Labour represent now anyway? It's clearly not the working classes. Is it just students and intellectuals from the cities? This isn't a dig btw, because as someone that's never voted Tory and never will do, I'd love nothing more than an electable Labour party.

Okay, I accept the point about winning an election but I really feel a centrist Labour wouldn't deliver the type of change that the country desperately needs. I feel Labour is therefore stuck between a rock and a hard place. For me, there's not that much point in going into government if all we are doing is slowly reversing the changes the Conservatives have made and adding the odd bit or bob here and there. We might as well stick to our guns, but accept the Conservatives' economic argument and wait patiently for it to go tits up. I accept that my views are probably on the fringe, but these last few years have been the first I didn't feel alienated by politics in general.

 

[Gassy]

Okay, I accept the point about winning an election but I really feel a centrist Labour wouldn't deliver the type of change that the country desperately needs. I feel Labour is therefore stuck between a rock and a hard place. For me, there's not that much point in going into government if all we are doing is slowly reversing the changes the Conservatives have made and adding the odd bit or bob here and there. We might as well stick to our guns, but accept the Conservatives' economic argument and wait patiently for it to go tits up. I accept that my views are probably on the fringe, but these last few years have been the first I didn't feel alienated by politics in general.

I know how you feel mate. I do think JCs manifesto would have done better without Brexit being there, most likely it would have been a hung parliament again. I don't want to get into the whole leadership debate again, but I do think JC would have been great for this country.

For me he was the only one (apart from the greens) who wasn't there for his own ego and political gain.

Some of his policies were great, some were not. If he'd had dropped his free broadband, voting for under 16's, voting for migrants & inheritance tax then he might have stood a better chance. He unfortunately over promised which led people to not believe it was possible - a stupid reason not to vote for someone if you haven't done your research, but hey - that's democracy.

On a quick side note: I was so happy to read about the 16 year olds getting a vote. When I was studying politics in A levels back in 2008, I remember feeling angry at the system & the way corporations work against under 18s. In essence, if you're 16 then you can't earn the 18 year old minimum wage, can't drink, smoke, vote, drive - do anything really. However, you're charged adult prices in everything. Back in those days I was working in Sainsburys checkouts earning £4.54 per hour - I had to work more than an hour just to be able to pay for my bus to work. 16 year olds are essentially getting f*cked in every way, so either make everything at 18 (including adult pricing) or allow 16 year olds to earn more.

 

[Fompous Part]

If he'd had dropped his free broadband, voting for under 16's, voting for migrants & inheritance tax then he might have stood a better chance. He unfortunately over promised which led people to not believe it was possible.

FWIW, that was the feedback I got while canvassing. To be fair, I wasn't canvassing for Labour and I was doing it in Scotland (where the Labour Party has pretty much been superseded by the SNP), but from what I've read Labour canvassers in England had similar experiences.

 

[smat]

Okay, I accept the point about winning an election but I really feel a centrist Labour wouldn't deliver the type of change that the country desperately needs. I feel Labour is therefore stuck between a rock and a hard place. For me, there's not that much point in going into government if all we are doing is slowly reversing the changes the Conservatives have made and adding the odd bit or bob here and there. We might as well stick to our guns, but accept the Conservatives' economic argument and wait patiently for it to go tits up. I accept that my views are probably on the fringe, but these last few years have been the first I didn't feel alienated by politics in general.

What actually is centrism? What kinds of policies would a centrist Labour party put forward? I suspect when most people say they want Labour to be more centrist, what they actually mean is "not in the news as much". Sensible. Moderate. Empty signifiers with no content.

Centrism doesn't have the ideas to deal with the urgent and scary problems of the day. The Liberal Democrats suggested deposit loans for renters and something called "skills wallets" (?). They got their arses handed to them and their leader lost her seat. A dozen or so MPs formed a new sensible, moderate centrist party that had media attention lavished on it. It exploded on contact with democracy and the remnants won about 10,000 votes across the UK last Thursday. Centrism doesn't have anything to offer and it is not remotely popular.

Apart from anything else, I don't see any evidence that it would be a successful electoral strategy. Labour has been steadily losing support in those Northern Leave seats for decades, going back to Blair. We even lost a few seats there two years ago but no one really noticed because of gains elsewhere. Centrists need to face up to the fact that Labour's opponent is no longer the tough but fiscally responsible Conservative Party - it's basically now rightwing populism, and any new direction needs to have a plan for that or we will rerun Hillary vs Trump.

I absolutely accept that the left has some tough lessons to learn and may need to compromise to rebuild an electoral coalition. But the idea that Labour needs to improve on 2017 and 2019 by returning to the blueprints of 2010 and 2015, where we received an even lower vote share, is basically incoherent. We need to work out another way to win.