Hollywood announce war on Trump SAG Awards turns into a night-long protest

[Ebeneezer Goode]

Feeling more confident about my Le Pen bet now anyway!

With the way the French elections are structured I'm sure the socialists and conservatives will conspire to drop candidates so as to not split the vote in their favour. They basically have no chance in my opinion.

 

[TheMinsterman]

Sorry, it was a bit of a smart-arse reply given there are only tiny numbers of Lipka Tartars left in Poland. And Hungary, for all its historic Ottoman Turkish influence, only has a tiny Muslim minority. (I've been down an interesting wikipedia rabbit-hole though - there used to be an arabic script for writing Belorussian https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Belarusian_Arabic_alphabet).

I find these sorts of things pretty interesting. Nationalists like to imagine nation-states as historically sharing an ethnic and religious identity, but in fact that's a fairytale. Migration and disaporism always has been the norm.

You have to imagine historic tensions in the cultural memory with the Ottomans is also a big factor in Eastern Europe too, after all it was Poland who lifted the siege of Vienna, the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth often were at odds with them, the Balkans, Bulgaria, Hungary etc were obviously even directly ruled by them on off. I'd not be surprised to see them invoking some of these in the current climate.

 

[nousername]

^ Good point. Was going to raise that up regarding Ian's comment.

Still possible lingering antipathy (suspicion?) regarding Ottoman colonisation and invasion.

There may well have been migration and disaporism in these locales, but unsure if it was entirely positive.

 

[nousername]

With the way the French elections are structured I'm sure the socialists and conservatives will conspire to drop candidates so as to not split the vote in their favour. They basically have no chance in my opinion.

I share your thoughts, but I also think she has a not improbable chance of gaining a majority in the first round and winning it outright, with no need for a run-off.

 

[Captain Scumbag]

She has a not improbable chance in the same way that I have a not improbable chance of enjoying a threesome with Hayley Atwell and Maggie Gyllenhaal. It could happen. There's just no known data in the world indicating that it will.

 

[TheMinsterman]

^ Good point. Was going to raise that up regarding Ian's comment.

Still possible lingering antipathy (suspicion?) regarding Ottoman colonisation and invasion.

There may well have been migration and disaporism in these locales, but unsure if it was entirely positive.

Obviously a lot of Ottoman expansion in Europe was negative, the Janissaries were kidnapped Christian boys, there was forced colonisation too, the continued destruction of war etc. They're all useful cultural memories to invoke in a period of increased anti-Islamic sentiment.

 

[nousername]

She has a not improbable chance in the same way that I have a not improbable chance of enjoying a threesome with Hayley Atwell and Maggie Gyllenhaal. It could happen. There's just no known data in the world indicating that it will.

Oddschecker is telling me that Le Pen has a 1/2 chance of winning the first round.

Odds of Captain Scumbag having a threesome (of any sort [or a twosome]) are hard to come by...

 

[Captain Scumbag]

For the record, the closest I got to a threesome was with two Irish lasses at summer camp in the sweltering Pennsylvanian summer of 1999. It never got past the foreplay stage, sadly. I vomited a delightful brew of peach schnapps and chips over a sleeping bag, and the ingénue Zoe bailed after Niamh, a raven-haired fruitcake from County Down, tried to shove my electric toothbrush (not a euphemism) up her arse. True story.

But I digress.

Look, my bad. I know you’re going through that pitiful process of desperate straw-clutching that all men do after making a bad bet. A kinder person than me would have just left you to it. But honestly, man, there is NADDA in the polling data that indicates even an outside chance of Le Pen winning the first round outright, thereby avoiding the run-off. She would have to improve her polling by 25+ points between now and April. It’s not going to happen.

I want to end this on a more positive note, so please find below a picture of Hayley Atwell writing on a motorbike.

 

[Martino Quackavelli]

boobs

 

[nousername]

Look, my bad. I know you’re going through that pitiful process of desperate straw-clutching that all men do after making a bad bet. A kinder person than me would have just left you to it. But honestly, man, there is NADDA in the polling data that indicates even an outside chance of Le Pen winning the first round outright, thereby avoiding the run-off. She would have to improve her polling by 25+ points between now and April. It’s not going to happen.

Thank you for ending on such a positive and sympathetic note...!

To clarify, my bet is not that Le Pen will win outright in the first round. My bet is that she will be next French President. I simply stated that I think there a possibility it may happen. Granted, you're correct her polling would have to dramatically improve, but equally I'm guessing there is an awful lot of Le Pen sympathisers out there keeping their head down. We'll see.

Anyway, more interestingly, I have a £100 wager with a French-Syrian colleague who think she won't even get passed the first round. Possibly more out of hope than expectation...