League One 1-24 prediction 24-25

[Pedlar]

quite correct we have been in div 2 old div4 for two seasons 2 years out of 150 getting out of the division on both occasions. Both times the club was a basket case ..........Comparing Crawley with Bolton is night and day.
Enjoy your one season no malice towards Crawley but you wont last the season

I'm not comparing Crawley with Bolton. Bolton have a rich history, we are just tinpot and proud. Everybody loves an underdog. I was more referring to your comment "There you are proof that those in lge 2 have no clue about football".

 

[Pedlar]

I’m aware. But the team that Alain was referring to, I.e. the one that got you promoted, has been almost entirely dismantled. I was wondering if the sentiments about surprising fancied teams, having quality all over the pitch and having no doubts about avoiding the drop were still true? Genuine interest as I’m obviously hoping the bottom four slots get filled before the relegation reaper’s scythe reaches Orient.

We are up against it, League 1 is big step up. There are a lot of big hitters in this league. Staying up would be some achievement for Crawley.

 

[EnglishRed]

We are up against it, League 1 is big step up. There are a lot of big hitters in this league. Staying up would be some achievement for Crawley.

To be fair to Crawley most people thought they'd be relegated last season too and they ended up going up.

 

[ForzaCounty]

To be fair to Crawley most people thought they'd be relegated last season too and they ended up going up.

To be more fair that was because of the basketcase owners. They hadn't been dismantled like this summer

 

[Stocky]

The Crawley owners have a plan. We should respect it. They've not done too badly. The players they've sold were nobodies 12 months ago.

 

[Alain]

We have done the same recruitment for this season as last with players being brought in on their stats - if Scott Lindsey and the coaching staff can get these new signings playing in the same style as last season then we have a good chance of not getting relegated. As has been said the players brought in last season were from non league and surplus to requirements at other clubs - yes all of us here at Crawley were extremely concerned about our recruitment but credit to the coaching staff improved them massively, especially Orsi, Lolos and Liam Kelly. They will certainly get the best out of these new signings- so here’s hoping we succeed. Watch out Blackpool don’t be complacent you will be in a tough game.

 

[Stocky]

1.Birmingham
2.Huddersfield
3.Wrexham
4.Bolton
5.Charlton
6.Rotherham
7.Barnsley
8.Reading
9.Peterborough
10.Wigan
11.Blackpool
12.Wycombe
13.Bristol Rovers
14.Stockport
15.Mansfield
16.Leyton Orient
17.Lincoln
18.Exeter
19.Stevenage
20.Burton
21.Cambridge
22.Shrewsbury
23.Northampton
24.Crawley

 

[Conker]

Stockport will finish above Wrexham, just gotta avoid those awful starts you’ve had, and keep the gaffer obvs.

 

[EnglishRed]

Stockport will finish above Wrexham, just gotta avoid those awful starts you’ve had, and keep the gaffer obvs.

Thats just Stocky talking down County as always. Spinning his yarns.

 

[Conker]

Thats just Stocky talking down County as always. Spinning his yarns.

They’ve recruited really well, but they do seem to implode early in the season which they need to cut out.

I would snap your hands off at 15th, got the smallest turnover in the league so very much just seeing where we are in January and then gradually improving the squad slowly. Bit worried we may not replace Brunt, but we definitely have some money to spend on the right player.

 

[Spanishstag]

Here goes
1 Birmingham
2Bolton
3Peterborough
4Huddersfield
5Rotherham
6Charlton
7Barnsley
8Stockport
9Reading
10 Wrexham
11 Blackpool
12Mansfield
13Wigan
14 Bristol rovers
15Leyton orient
16Exeter
17 Lincoln
18 Crawley
19Burton
20 Shrewsbury
21Stevenage
22Northampton
23Crawley
24Cambridge
Probably miles off but the san miguels working its magic

 

[Stocky]

I don't think there was much between the three automatic League Two sides at all. We got the league but it could have gone any of the three ways.

We've had the biggest shake up of the three so far, I'm not 100% convinced by us. A lot of "potential" there. Not many are proven at this level and we've taken a massive chunk of experience off the squad.

 

[masi51]

Here goes
1 Birmingham
2Bolton
3Peterborough
4Huddersfield
5Rotherham
6Charlton
7Barnsley
8Stockport
9Reading
10 Wrexham
11 Blackpool
12Mansfield
13Wigan
14 Bristol rovers
15Leyton orient
16Exeter
17 Lincoln
18 Crawley
19Burton
20 Shrewsbury
21Stevenage
22Northampton
23Crawley
24Cambridge
Probably miles off but the san miguels working its magic

crawley are so bad you named them twice

 

[Spanishstag]

crawley are so bad you named them twice

Bugger like i said san miguels working its magic cant even be bothered to go back and see who ive missed

 

[masi51]

Bugger like i said san miguels working its magic cant even be bothered to go back and see who ive missed

Wycombe fans will love you

 

[Spanishstag]

Wycombe fans will love you

Wycombe fans will love you

Sorted

 

[chief]

Definitely still too early.

1. Birmingham
2. Rotherham
3. Bolton
4. Peterborough
5. Lincoln
6. Huddersfield
7. Charlton
8. Barnsley
9. Wrexham
10. Blackpool
11. Wycombe
12. Stockport
13. Wigan
14. Orient
15. Reading
16. Northampton
17. Bristol Rovers
18. Exeter
19. Mansfield
20. Cambridge
21. Shrewsbury
22. Stevenage
23. Burton
24. Crawley

 

[Conker]

I don't think there was much between the three automatic League Two sides at all. We got the league but it could have gone any of the three ways.

We've had the biggest shake up of the three so far, I'm not 100% convinced by us. A lot of "potential" there. Not many are proven at this level and we've taken a massive chunk of experience off the squad.

Where are you most worried on the pitch?

For me it’s defence particularly full back positions, at centre back I’m happy with Flint and Cargill, by the time Alfie Kilgour is back it’ll be over a year out which is hard going.

Left back we’ve signed Frazer Blake-Tracy - got no idea if he’s up to L1. Kept on Stephen McLaughlin who’s been a great servant but is getting on and was injured most of last season.

Right back our first choice is probably Elliot Hewitt who is a really good full back but been out for pretty much an entire season, going to be tough for him to get back in to things. Can we get away with Bowery in defence in L1? Probably not.

 

[Stocky]

Where are you most worried on the pitch?

For me it’s defence particularly full back positions, at centre back I’m happy with Flint and Cargill, by the time Alfie Kilgour is back it’ll be over a year out which is hard going.

Left back we’ve signed Frazer Blake-Tracy - got no idea if he’s up to L1. Kept on Stephen McLaughlin who’s been a great servant but is getting on and was injured most of last season.

Right back our first choice is probably Elliot Hewitt who is a really good full back but been out for pretty much an entire season, going to be tough for him to get back in to things. Can we get away with Bowery in defence in L1? Probably not.

I wouldn't say it's one area of the pitch, we do tend to recruit quite evenly but I just think there has been a lot of upheavel in general across the whole team.

I do understand our thought process behind it and it's a high risk, high reward type of bet. We'll see.

 

[AdamStag]

Obviously budget wise wrexham were ahead of everyone by a mile and stockports was somewhat larger than ours, as conker says we’ve recruited well in midfield and attack certainly need that central defender, especially if flint gets injured. Brunt would’ve been a great player for us but we can compete with that circus at wrexham. We can’t start going down the route of playing bowery and akins in defence again, not here.

What mansfield lack with budget we make up with clough who’s endless experience but also a well earned reputation for his good work and many contacts.

 

[Less than a mile (WAFC)]

I don't think there was much between the three automatic League Two sides at all. We got the league but it could have gone any of the three ways.

We've had the biggest shake up of the three so far, I'm not 100% convinced by us. A lot of "potential" there. Not many are proven at this level and we've taken a massive chunk of experience off the squad.

Without offending Mansfield fans, and they did get the job done but I was never overly convinced by them last season. Went to both away games, league and cup and the game at our place.

Always felt us and yourselves had a bit more quality when it mattered.

 

[AdamStag]

Without offending Mansfield fans, and they did get the job done but I was never overly convinced by them last season. Went to both away games, league and cup and the game at our place.

Always felt us and yourselves had a bit more quality when it mattered.

Which is just that, if you base it on 2 games. The home league game we should’ve been 2/3-0 up at half time against wrexham, not so good in the cup game.

We beat stockport both times, absolutely battered them at home despite it being 3-2 and won 2-0 away.

Though of course that’s how most see teams - through when they’ve played yours.

In reality with wrexham’s budget being 2/3 times bigger than ours last season that we finished 2 points below you it’s testament to our season - and against a side that should’ve won the league easily.

Swings and roundabouts, i don’t expect us to be close that circus this season.

 

[EnglishRed]

In reality with wrexham’s budget being 2/3 times bigger than ours last season that we finished 2 points below you it’s testament to our season - and against a side that should’ve won the league easily.

It'll. be interesting to see how big the budgets were last season. Ours will be the biggest but I am interested to see by how much. We did have to overspend to sign players when we were in the National League though- not easy persuading everyone to drop down a couple of divisions. Mansfield had the benefit of building their squad over a couple of years.

I'm not sure we were ever sensible favourites to win League 2. People massively underestimate how hard it is to step up a league. You could say the same about Stockport the season before yet they finished fourth after a poor start. There is always a period of readjustment- as I expect to see this season. It's why back to back promotions are relatively rare.

I'm happy with how last year went at the 'Circus'. Could probably do with a bit of consolidation to build for the next phase, especially infrastructure wise. Mid table, flirting with the play offs, would do for me.

 

[AdamStag]

I certainly think the 3 auto sides should hold their own, certainly.

 

[E10rifle]

I'm not sure we were ever sensible favourites to win League 2. People massively underestimate how hard it is to step up a league. You could say the same about Stockport the season before yet they finished fourth after a poor start. There is always a period of readjustment- as I expect to see this season. It's why back to back promotions are relatively rare.

I don’t think there’s an easier step-up between divisions than National League —> League Two. So many clubs just going through the motions down there and always a couple of basket cases to rely on which virtually guarantees survival.

 

[SVH]

As things currently stand this is my prediction.

Birmingham
Rotherham
——————-
Charlton
Huddersfield
Peterborough
Bolton


Bottom 4
—————
Stevenage
Northampton
Shrewsbury
Crawley

 

[Gassy]

Not sure how Northamptons summer has gone, but I’d be very surprised to see them relegated. They were one of the surprise packages in the end, not for just their position, but the football they played.

 

[bigfatron]

Here are some stats that might be interesting, covering the last 20 seasons:

First, how well do relegated teams do?
- of sixty teams relegated into League One, 12 have been automatically promoted in their first season
- fourteen more have made the play-offs in their first season, but only three of them have won the play-offs
- six out of sixty have been relegated straight into League Two
- in only one season have all three relegated teams been promoted straight back (2016/16: Wigan, Blackburn and Rotherham)
- in just one other season all three teams finished in the top six (2021/22)
- in eight seasons no relegated team got promoted straight back, and in five seasons (a quarter) no relegated team even made the top six.

So, while the pundits/bookies might be right to forecast two of the relegated teams will go straight back up, and all three will finish in the top five, this is what they predict most seasons, and most seasons they are wrong...

Teams that finished 4th, 7th and 11th have gone on to get promoted in 5 out of 20 subsequent seasons - some encouragement for Peterborough, Lincoln and Orient perhaps?

What about teams promoted from League Two?
- on average one promoted team in each group of four goes straight back down
- on average another relegation place will be filled from the teams that are now in their second or third seasons after promotion into this division (i.e. Northampton, Orient, Stevenage, Exeter, Bristol R)
- fourth season after promotion is the most risky (i.e. the proportion of teams that make it to season four but then get relegated that year is higher than for the first, second, third or fifth+ seasons after promotion) - Cambridge and Bolton are therefore at high risk statistically (well, probably not Bolton...)
- in the last twenty years (80 promoted teams), six teams have been promoted straight up into the Championship

So, for relegation, the pundits/bookies seem on firmer ground picking (generally) Crawley, Cambridge and two of Shrewsbury, Burton and Northampton to drop.

However I would point out that we have been favourites to be relegated for all four season we've been in this division, and so far we are still here!

 

[Conker]

Without offending Mansfield fans, and they did get the job done but I was never overly convinced by them last season. Went to both away games, league and cup and the game at our place.

Always felt us and yourselves had a bit more quality when it mattered.

Funnily enough I see it the other way round, think Stockport and Mansfield were the superior sides. I think the better style of football helps mind.

 

[chief]

I think the better style of football helps mind.

Do enjoy this comment from a fella who's watched a season of Cloughball.

We've had 2 promotions on the bounce and you've had one in the last 10 years. I know which style I'd rather watch.

Reckon Mansfield will get a decent humbling next year.