Oxford v Carlisle - Sat 12th

[eric read]

You should have won the game? Bull shit. I was there and a draw was fair. Hitting the post from a free kick does not mean you should have won the game. If you don't hit the target you can't expect to score, just like us when our player blazed an easy chance over the bar from 8 yards just after half time.

The only real notable saves I can remember from Gillespie was the one in the first half that he tipped over and the one right at the end after Roofe missed with his header.

Stop being so bloody touchy!

I said you were decent, and I think you were. But, we gifted you your goal and I do think there is a world of difference between a free kick that comes back off the post, with your keeper beaten, and your striker blazing about ten yards over the bar. Also, if you'd hit the bar and then the keeper also made a good save from the rebound in the last seconds of the game, wouldn't you have thought you were unlucky not to have won it?

I stand by what I said, we had an off day, maybe due in some part to your tactics, and you couldn't beat us. Look forward to the return game.

 

[eric read]

I seem to have heard this after a few of your matches - it was certainly true against us. I also remember you failing to crumble (just) under our, final 10 minute, aerial bombardment that had undone a few lesser teams (York and Wimbledon in particular). Like Plymouth, it seems you need a goal scoring striker (or a change of approach) to be the complete article - easier said than done.

Yeah, that's not a bad analysis.

We have got goals in the side, Roofe, Sercombe, Hylton to name three, although Danny Hylton doesn't seem to be getting a huge amount of game time at the moment, and we are generally a better side when he's on the pitch. On our day we really do play some beautiful stuff, and have only lost three out of our last 37 games in all competitions, so I think it's going ok and wouldn't want to change too much.

It would be interesting to see what a Barry Corr would be like in our side, but it might have to come at the expense of our playing style?

 

[Habbinalan]

Yeah, that's not a bad analysis.

We have got goals in the side, Roofe, Sercombe, Hylton to name three, although Danny Hylton doesn't seem to be getting a huge amount of game time at the moment, and we are generally a better side when he's on the pitch. On our day we really do play some beautiful stuff, and have only lost three out of our last 37 games in all competitions, so I think it's going ok and wouldn't want to change too much.

It would be interesting to see what a Barry Corr would be like in our side, but it might have to come at the expense of our playing style?

No, the Corrminator fits well with a midfield playing the ball around him but he also offers another string to your bow when needed - reflected exactly in the 2 assists he got for us yesterday. That said, he's not for sale.

 

[hellogregory]

Stop being so bloody touchy!

I said you were decent, and I think you were. But, we gifted you your goal and I do think there is a world of difference between a free kick that comes back off the post, with your keeper beaten, and your striker blazing about ten yards over the bar. Also, if you'd hit the bar and then the keeper also made a good save from the rebound in the last seconds of the game, wouldn't you have thought you were unlucky not to have won it?

I stand by what I said, we had an off day, maybe due in some part to your tactics, and you couldn't beat us. Look forward to the return game.

I'm not being touchy I'm just telling you that your team weren't unlucky not to have won the game.

No mate, hitting the post means shit. It's off target, he missed. The big difference between the 2 incidents is you got an element of fortune for getting the free kick in the first place, where as Wyke's miss came from our winger creating it by skinning 3 of your players. But both efforts were off target.

 

[eric read]

I'm not being touchy I'm just telling you that your team weren't unlucky not to have won the game.

No mate, hitting the post means shit. It's off target, he missed. The big difference between the 2 incidents is you got an element of fortune for getting the free kick in the first place, where as Wyke's miss came from our winger creating it by skinning 3 of your players. But both efforts were off target.

Oh FFS I give up! We're shit and you're brilliant. Happy now?

 

[hellogregory]

Oh FFS I give up! We're shit and you're brilliant. Happy now?

You should give up because you obviously haven't read my posts. Did I say you're shit and we're brilliant? Nope.

If you do happen to read my posts before replying again, you'll see that I never said such a thing. I've clearly said more than once that a draw was a fair result. I simply didn't agree when you said you should have won the game.

Jesus fucking christ.

 

[ThisTinpotLeague]

I wondered why Carlisle fans went quiet about that disallowed goal, now I've seen it and

Nice passage of play though, if you allow for the head tennis.

I'm not sure why that one guy is so uptight about hitting the woodwork either. If you hit the post, you're closer to scoring than if you just plant your four yard header miles wide. Pretty simple - we were closer to scoring. More importantly, hitting the woodwork looks cool.

 

[cufc17]

If you hit the post, you don't score.
If you hit it over the bar, you don't score. There's no point arguing which was closer, neither of them went in.

The Oxford fans on here love a bit of wumming.

 

[ThisTinpotLeague]

If all that matters is what goes in, save yourself a lot of petrol and just look at the final score on the BBC site. There's nothing wrong with discussing, and enjoying, the 89 minutes and 57 seconds that didn't involve a ball crossing a goal line.

 

[BigDaveCUFC]

All I am looking at currently is the big change of approach this last month.

Early in season we went to top sides at time Orient and Plymouth and while open we were cautious, went more for strong counters.

Now we go to top sides Plymouth and Oxford and have the balls to take game to them, make them defend and hit us on break.

It shows how confidence has risen. We took big risks sat. Oxford coped well early on and may have then punished us for not scoring when on top.

But I find it good we went to a strong side, played very open football, tried to force game on them and showed no fear.

Has to be better for all than sides who come 9-0-1 slow timewaste defence stuff.

 

[shoddycollins]

All I am looking at currently is the big change of approach this last month.

Early in season we went to top sides at time Orient and Plymouth and while open we were cautious, went more for strong counters.

Now we go to top sides Plymouth and Oxford and have the balls to take game to them, make them defend and hit us on break.

It shows how confidence has risen. We took big risks sat. Oxford coped well early on and may have then punished us for not scoring when on top.

But I find it good we went to a strong side, played very open football, tried to force game on them and showed no fear.

Has to be better for all than sides who come 9-0-1 slow timewaste defence stuff.

You obviously haven't read the Oxford fans' match reports. Our game plan was big strikers, and rely totally on long throws for our attacking threat... but for a few freakish occurances, Oxford would have won 5-0

 

[eric read]

What's wrong with you Carlisle fans?

I've said you looked decent, but you had a game plan. It's a fact that you used long throws at every opportunity. It's a fact that you are a big side. It's a fact that you put the ball into danger areas early and at every opportunity. It's a fact that your goal was a bizarre own goal by us. It's a fact that despite all of your supposed fantastic play, you never breached our goal yourselves. How do I know this? Because I was actually there, unlike all bar one of you.

There's no shame in any of the above, what are you still arguing about? Let it go. Your a decent side, but not the best in the league.

 

[BigDaveCUFC]

to be honest me thinks some of our fans must've just read a post or two and got wound up.

am not sure why, when I read your forum we got a lot of praise from a good portion of fans so we must've done ok.

I can understand your fans saying you had an off day, when your top of the league you usually think its your side didn't perform rather than the opposition did.

If you did have one slight worry it is that usually the best sides play poor............and win, saying that I suppose you very nearly did.

Good luck on season anyway, I think both could well be around top.

 

[Carver]

What's wrong with you Carlisle fans?

That fan of yours 'ThisTinpotLeague' is a little wum, he started it. He's a disgrace to your lot so you should tell him to stop embarrassing your club!

 

[eric read]

to be honest me thinks some of our fans must've just read a post or two and got wound up.

am not sure why, when I read your forum we got a lot of praise from a good portion of fans so we must've done ok.

I can understand your fans saying you had an off day, when your top of the league you usually think its your side didn't perform rather than the opposition did.

If you did have one slight worry it is that usually the best sides play poor............and win, saying that I suppose you very nearly did.

Good luck on season anyway, I think both could well be around top.

Fair points and a bit of common sense, cheers.

I agree that we'll both be there or thereabouts at the end of the season. Could be a good game at (hopefully!) Brunton Park in April, and good luck to yourselves.

 

[eric read]

That fan of yours 'ThisTinpotLeague' is a little wum, he started it. He's a disgrace to your lot so you should tell him to stop embarrassing your club!

I don't know who he is, but I think you've just told him anyway!

 

[ThisTinpotLeague]

That fan of yours 'ThisTinpotLeague' is a little wum, he started it. He's a disgrace to your lot so you should tell him to stop embarrassing your club!

I started it? I predicted that you wouldn't score. I was correct.

 

[daviejones]

Christ is this still going?

 

[shoddycollins]

Just gonna leave this here

'After an even first half, visitors Carlisle significantly out-created Oxford in the second. The home side took 20 minutes to register their first shot and were relatively quiet after netting the game’s opening goal.'

Bit surprised to be honest, and I'm not putting this here to create argument, just because I myself was surprised by this assessment. I thought it was even at best for us... but experimental361's statistical approach is always interesting, if a bit obscure. As far as I can tell each of those little jumps in 'expected goals' represents a chance on goal (think it includes things like the ball fizzing across the box as well as actual shots on goal), and the height of the jump reflects how good a chance it was. Just because a chance is good and has a high probability of resulting in a goal doesn't mean it will do, but the idea behind this is that if each team scored in accordance with how good their chances were, the final score would have been 2-1 or 3-2 to Carlisle.

So both teams scored from chances where they were never really likely to score, and had much better chances in the game. Them's the breaks, and it's interesting and not foolproof and focusses entirely on opportunities to score, rather than ability to stop them I think, but it does present a different story to the one where Oxford should have won but for the rub of the green going Carlisle's way.

 

[eric read]

Just gonna leave this here

'After an even first half, visitors Carlisle significantly out-created Oxford in the second. The home side took 20 minutes to register their first shot and were relatively quiet after netting the game’s opening goal.'

Bit surprised to be honest, and I'm not putting this here to create argument, just because I myself was surprised by this assessment. I thought it was even at best for us... but experimental361's statistical approach is always interesting, if a bit obscure. As far as I can tell each of those little jumps in 'expected goals' represents a chance on goal (think it includes things like the ball fizzing across the box as well as actual shots on goal), and the height of the jump reflects how good a chance it was. Just because a chance is good and has a high probability of resulting in a goal doesn't mean it will do, but the idea behind this is that if each team scored in accordance with how good their chances were, the final score would have been 2-1 or 3-2 to Carlisle.

So both teams scored from chances where they were never really likely to score, and had much better chances in the game. Them's the breaks, and it's interesting and not foolproof and focusses entirely on opportunities to score, rather than ability to stop them I think, but it does present a different story to the one where Oxford should have won but for the rub of the green going Carlisle's way.

To use a technical term, what a load of bollocks!

 

[hellogregory]

A draw was a fair result, Eric. Just accept it.

 

[ThisTinpotLeague]

A draw was a fair result, Eric. Just accept it.

But that's not what the graph says, and therefore it's not what he was disagreeing with.

 

[shoddycollins]

But that's not what the graph says, and therefore it's not what he was disagreeing with.

The people at exp361 never really claim that their expected goals indicates what a fair result would have been.

 

[hellogregory]

But that's not what the graph says, and therefore it's not what he was disagreeing with.

I don't give a flying fuck about the graph (no offence shoddy ), I was at the game and it was as even a game as you'll see.

 

[ThisTinpotLeague]

I don't give a flying fuck about the graph (no offence shoddy ), I was at the game and it was as even a game as you'll see.

If you don't care about the graph, why on earth are you trying to pick fights with people who are only commenting on that same graph?

Straw men must have a bloody hard time of it around Carlisle way.

 

[ThisTinpotLeague]

The people at exp361 never really claim that their expected goals indicates what a fair result would have been.

In that case it's a pretty poor piece of evidence to "present a different story to the one where Oxford should have won but for the rub of the green going Carlisle's way".

 

[hellogregory]

If you don't care about the graph, why on earth are you trying to pick fights with people who are only commenting on that same graph?

Straw men must have a bloody hard time of it around Carlisle way.

I'm not trying to pick fights.

If that's what is classed as picking a fight, I guess you Oxford boys haven't seen any real action

 

[ThisTinpotLeague]

I'm not trying to pick fights.

If that's what is classed as picking a fight, I guess you Oxford boys haven't seen any real action

You sound really tough.

 

[hellogregory]

You sound really tough.

Really? Based on posts in this thread. I'm shocked.

 

[shoddycollins]

In that case it's a pretty poor piece of evidence to "present a different story to the one where Oxford should have won but for the rub of the green going Carlisle's way".

I said it wasn't proof of what a fair result should have been... no such thing as a 'fair result' or a 'deserved win'. But it shows there was more going on in the game than Oxford attacking.