Promotion odds

[masi51]

I think the bottom half of league one is not much better than league two, I mean we slapped Accrington 5-1 and beat Burton relatively comfortably with half our squad out last season and many teams below 50 points surviving shows that but the top ten are miles ahead, mostly big teams who’ve flopped for whatever reason but with big budgets plus solid sides like Wycombe, MK and Oxford who’ve pushed on over a number of seasons.

Whilst loads to be excited about and Vale have a bright future we need to have a solid season, our days knocking about at the arse end of league two are surely behind us but it let’s not get carried away and focus on developing the excellent work we’ve been doing and hopefully we can emulate the likes of Wycombe and Oxford over time.

We should aim to be half way, don’t want us to be aiming just to stay up or to finish 20th and don’t think that will be our aim, if we finish 13-16th il take that.

Hartlepool and Stockport knocked us out of two cups last season......Cup football you will always get freak results
It is all about turning Accrington over this season and Burton with your full squad.
For what its worth i think you will be ok

 

[leedsvaliant]

You are playing in a 12 team league. Your aim is to finish above the bottom four. Nothing more nothing less
Also in that 12 team league are the three teams that finished above you last season and at least 2 that got promoted the season before................I dont see a bad team in lge1 at present.

I think initially that has to be our aim. I think we're going to be better than avoiding the bottom 4 but that's just a hunch at this stage. I don't agree that the top 12 is insurmountable but it would take another summer of decent signings like last summer, with many more hits than misses.

Again, all these teams are down here for a reason. They have failed to get promoted for a reason. Just because they have been successful teams once, a long time ago, has no bearing on the present.

I may be proved completely wrong, but there's always surprise packages. We almost escaped relegation from this league the last time we were in it with probably the worst team in our history. We were even in the top 7 up until about November. Yes, there's a couple of historically bigger clubs but this idea that we might as well not bother playing this fabled 'top 12' as we won't get any points out of them feels misplaced.

 

[SVH]

Nobody said you won’t take points of the top teams, we are saying you won’t trouble the top 6 or see a surprise package like Accrington or yourselves finish that high. Whilst fans will take a mid table finish, in house the aim will be to stay up.

I also think it’s a nonsense teams in lower league one are the same standard as league two.

You make a mistake in this league and you get punished. In league two you can make two or three mistakes before you get punished. We played Northampton in the FA Cup and in both games we didn’t get out of second gear. In fact we were very poor in both games and still won.

 

[leedsvaliant]

Nobody said you won’t take points of the top teams, we are saying you won’t trouble the top 6 or see a surprise package like Accrington or yourselves finish that high. Whilst fans will take a mid table finish, in house the aim will be to stay up.

I also think it’s a nonsense teams in lower league one are the same standard as league two.

You make a mistake in this league and you get punished. In league two you can make two or three mistakes before you get punished. We played Northampton in the FA Cup and in both games we didn’t get out of second gear. In fact we were very poor in both games and still won.

I think any team that has just come up would target not getting relegated as their first aim. Again, I'd be amazed if there isn't a surprise package.

Unless the standard has improved dramatically since we were last in the division (which I doubt), it's not the sort of league where you get punished for every mistake. I think you're building it up to be something it is not. In the championship and premier league, yes. But this is still the 3rd division.

Again, we only got relegated by a point last time out and with a far worse squad than we had now, made up of reserve players from the Dutch and Portuguese 4th divisions.

In terms of the cup, I don't think you can pay much mind to it. We outplayed most of the league 1 sides we played last season but were they truly that bothered? Just like Northampton I'm sure were more interested in the league than anything else. We outplayed Brentford for much of the second half....they are one off games.

 

[SVH]

You can't compare a season back in 2016 to this season. I look at the league table from when you were relegated and I notice Scunthorpe and Fleetwood finished third and fourth. Things have moved on in terms of budgets and heavy weights in this league.

 

[valefan16]

You can't compare a season back in 2016 to this season. I look at the league table from when you were relegated and I notice Scunthorpe and Fleetwood finished third and fourth. Things have moved on in terms of budgets and heavy weights in this league.

Yeah I agree on that, in the past you've had your heavyweights but usually 1 or 2 at a time for example Sheffield Wednesday 2003-05 or Leeds and Forest or Wolves and Sheffield United but now you have Ipswich, Portsmouth, Bolton, Sheffield Wednesday and Derby plus Charlton to a lesser degree.

It is difficult to compete at the moment for the rest. However you do have one small club unsettling the apple cart in Wycombe (smaller than Vale) and they are the example others will be looking up at. They've done extraordinary well, however its unlikely from a Vale view that we would waltz up and become Wycombe this season, it takes time and a lot to go your way.

I am sure League One will drop back to its usual standard in time as the faltering giants sort themselves out but for now its about staying out of trouble and building a platform using the matrix etc, if we finish 13-16th and bloody a few of the big boys noses on the way it will have been a solid progression.

 

[mozzavale]

Just been looking at a prediction thing on YouTube. Far too early at the moment but it makes me smile when the predictions for the top 6 are basically the 6 biggest teams. Football just doesn't work like that unless you're in the Premier League. Your can guarantee that at least 2 of those teams will have an unexpectedly shite season and 2 or 3 teams expected to finish mid to bottom half will finish in the top 7 or 8.

Yes, there's a gap in terms of budget but at this level it doesn't make as much of a difference. League one teams can still ultimately only attract a certain level of player. Same in league 2....teams like Salford, Bradford and Mansfield thrown loads of money at it but certainly in Salford's case they just throw players together and hope for the best. Even those with the biggest budget in this league will still need to have a canny manager and a decent ethos. For the bigger teams, if they start badly the pressure can quickly grow and before you know it they are out of the running.

Seen the replies to this

I read it and completely get your point, the 6 biggest clubs may not necessarily make it into the top 6. It's quite clear. How that has translated into, Vale will make the top 6, I've absolutely no idea, but here we are, being told where our place is.

 

[Bartonyellow]

I think the bottom half of league one is not much better than league two, I mean we slapped Accrington 5-1 and beat Burton relatively comfortably with half our squad out last season and many teams below 50 points surviving shows that but the top ten are miles ahead, mostly big teams who’ve flopped for whatever reason but with big budgets plus solid sides like Wycombe, MK and Oxford who’ve pushed on over a number of seasons.

Whilst loads to be excited about and Vale have a bright future we need to have a solid season, our days knocking about at the arse end of league two are surely behind us but it let’s not get carried away and focus on developing the excellent work we’ve been doing and hopefully we can emulate the likes of Wycombe and Oxford over time.

We should aim to be half way, don’t want us to be aiming just to stay up or to finish 20th and don’t think that will be our aim, if we finish 13-16th il take that.

You beat us in a one off game. In the fa cup. Don’t confuse the cup with the league. Accrington are more than capable of coming to your place and winning easily.

 

[Bartonyellow]

Yeah I agree on that, in the past you've had your heavyweights but usually 1 or 2 at a time for example Sheffield Wednesday 2003-05 or Leeds and Forest or Wolves and Sheffield United but now you have Ipswich, Portsmouth, Bolton, Sheffield Wednesday and Derby plus Charlton to a lesser degree.

It is difficult to compete at the moment for the rest. However you do have one small club unsettling the apple cart in Wycombe (smaller than Vale) and they are the example others will be looking up at. They've done extraordinary well, however its unlikely from a Vale view that we would waltz up and become Wycombe this season, it takes time and a lot to go your way.

I am sure League One will drop back to its usual standard in time as the faltering giants sort themselves out but for now its about staying out of trouble and building a platform using the matrix etc, if we finish 13-16th and bloody a few of the big boys noses on the way it will have been a solid progression.

On what measure do you class Wycombe as “smaller” than you?
Interested to know.

 

[valefan16]

On what measure do you class Wycombe as “smaller” than you?
Interested to know.

Its not a slating of Wycombe but in most aspects they are a smaller club than us?

Fan Base, Stadium, League History, Average Attendance...

 

[valefan16]

You beat us in a one off game. In the fa cup. Don’t confuse the cup with the league. Accrington are more than capable of coming to your place and winning easily.

Of course that wasn't the point i was making.

 

[Bartonyellow]

Its not a slating of Wycombe but in most aspects they are a smaller club than us?

Fan Base, Stadium, League History, Average Attendance...

Their average crowds are about 6k? Which is the same as you?
Got to an fa cup semi final ( same as you )
Championship level ( same as you )
Took 22000 to Wembley ( similar to you )
Ground is smaller, but less empty seats
It stacks up to me as a similar size. It’s also a neat stadium and a well run club. Travel well usually too especially to us.
History - well, every year a club makes new history. Which is what puts the larger clubs in league 2 noses out of joint that league 1 has us, fleetwood, Accy and morecambe in it ( plus now fgr) as we are making history. What really defines a small club ? ( or a big club for that matter )

 

[Bartonyellow]

Of course that wasn't the point i was making.

Perhaps not, but I think it’s disingenuous to say “we slapped Accrington” as we all know the cup is different. Last season they handed many a team arse on their plate, and no doubt will do it again this year.
Yes on the day I’m sure you can win, but as Massi says, league 1 has 2 leagues in it, and even the bottom half is pretty capable. I did notice a jump up when we moved out of league 2. Although in fairness we did spring straight up again so perhaps I’m been hypercritical ..

 

[valefan16]

Their average crowds are about 6k? Which is the same as you?
Got to an fa cup semi final ( same as you )
Championship level ( same as you )
Took 22000 to Wembley ( similar to you )
Ground is smaller, but less empty seats
It stacks up to me as a similar size. It’s also a neat stadium and a well run club. Travel well usually too especially to us.
History - well, every year a club makes new history. Which is what puts the larger clubs in league 2 noses out of joint that league 1 has us, fleetwood, Accy and morecambe in it ( plus now fgr) as we are making history. What really defines a small club ? ( or a big club for that matter )

They are smaller than us. Their home average is below ours and I would hazard a guess the away average at their place is a far higher than at ours considering the sides visiting.

Point though is irrelevant on the field we are all league one clubs and my point was they’ve done incredible as a small club to compete with so called giants such as Sunderland, Sheffield Wednesday and Ipswich and make the play offs twice in three years and have a season in the second tier (similar point with you a few years ago) so was a compliment if anything.

League One will be far tougher than League Two. It’s not new to Vale fans of course we’ve spent 12 of the last 22 seasons at that level but the bottom half this season has been relatively poor, the maths say that, the Vale side relegated in 2016 with the same points haul as that season finish 9 points clear it’s bonkers. That’s not to say of course next season the sides down the bottom who survived won’t improve of course and most haven’t done their business yet (neither have we).

We are a very well run club now, with direction and a model we work to behind the scenes so from our view it’s nice to have a good crack at this without a tight owner or the club being a basket case! We are light years from the club of Smurthwaite and V2001 eras so it’s an exciting journey and hopefully we can progress. It doesn’t mean though any Vale fan is expecting a charge on the play offs this season as that generally isn’t the feeling.

 

[leedsvaliant]

Their average crowds are about 6k? Which is the same as you?
Got to an fa cup semi final ( same as you )
Championship level ( same as you )
Took 22000 to Wembley ( similar to you )
Ground is smaller, but less empty seats
It stacks up to me as a similar size. It’s also a neat stadium and a well run club. Travel well usually too especially to us.
History - well, every year a club makes new history. Which is what puts the larger clubs in league 2 noses out of joint that league 1 has us, fleetwood, Accy and morecambe in it ( plus now fgr) as we are making history. What really defines a small club ? ( or a big club for that matter )

You're joking right? Please tell me you're joking. Wycombe were a non league club throughout their history until the 90s and were amateur until the 70s. They've spent 1 year in the championship in their history....we've had 46 years in the championship and another similar amount in league one. This last spell in league 2 was our longest period in the bottom division. Their average attendance has generally been around the 4-5k mark, probably boosted by very good away followings in recent years. Their stadium holds half of ours. I'm not suggesting we are a big club because we're not. We're a fairly average sized club but by any measure we are a far bigger club than wycombe.

 

[Topher]

On what measure do you class Wycombe as “smaller” than you?
Interested to know.

There is only one measure of club size. Potential attendance. They averaged nearly 500 less than us despite finishing 23 places above. That's pretty cut and dried.

 

[leedsvaliant]

Seen the replies to this

I read it and completely get your point, the 6 biggest clubs may not necessarily make it into the top 6. It's quite clear. How that has translated into, Vale will make the top 6, I've absolutely no idea, but here we are, being told where our place is.

The main thrust of the argument seems to be coming from teams that didn't do all that well last season , who therefore may have an over inflated opinion of how good the league is.

I'll reiterate that I would be happy for vale to survive/mid table next season and probably for the next 3 or 4 until we've made enough progress to replicate the likes of burton and wycombe , and accrington before that.

I may end up with egg on my face but this 'impenetrable top 12' strikes me as a load of bollocks perpetuated by teams that struggled last season.

It's division 3. Wednesday aren't Barcelona, Ipswich aren't Real Madrid. I'm sure they'll do well with decent fan bases and good money but I can guarantee that 2 or 3 of the big boys won't do as well as they think.

 

[leedsvaliant]

There is only one measure of club size. Potential attendance. They averaged nearly 500 less than us despite finishing 23 places above. That's pretty cut and dried.

And we achieved that after years of mismanagement and some of the poorest seasons in our history, and with several away followings of less than 100.

 

[Soz]

didn't realise they knocked the european super league on the head because they couldn't compete with the top few in league one

 

[GeneralLee]

The main thrust of the argument seems to be coming from teams that didn't do all that well last season , who therefore may have an over inflated opinion of how good the league is.

I'll reiterate that I would be happy for vale to survive/mid table next season and probably for the next 3 or 4 until we've made enough progress to replicate the likes of burton and wycombe , and accrington before that.

I may end up with egg on my face but this 'impenetrable top 12' strikes me as a load of bollocks perpetuated by teams that struggled last season.

It's division 3. Wednesday aren't Barcelona, Ipswich aren't Real Madrid. I'm sure they'll do well with decent fan bases and good money but I can guarantee that 2 or 3 of the big boys won't do as well as they think.

Top 12 might be a stretch. Anything below 8th are pretty poor and won’t ever trouble the top six. The drop in quality is quite significant, more so last season than any since we’ve been in League One. Last season budgets really played a much bigger role than in previous seasons. The top two I’d say is an insurmountable task unless you throw significant funds at autos. Playoffs are achievable as Lincoln showed on a tight budget but sustaining that finish is difficult without finance. The loan market will be critical as will taking chances on young saleable assets with high potential.

The gap between the top two and plays offs, the play offs with teams just outside, those just outside and the rest of the division is much bigger now than ever before. To be honest anyone from 9th - 24th is unpredictable. The rest are largely expected.

We didn’t make the playoffs yet we’d blow most bottom half sides out of the water. Heck, we hit Gillingham for seven away from home but then look decidedly average at a Rotherham for example. It’s a league which I don’t think will offer all that many surprises as in previous seasons.

 

[leedsvaliant]

Top 12 might be a stretch. Anything below 8th are pretty poor and won’t ever trouble the top six. The drop in quality is quite significant, more so last season than any since we’ve been in League One. Last season budgets really played a much bigger role than in previous seasons. The top two I’d say is an insurmountable task unless you throw significant funds at autos. Playoffs are achievable as Lincoln showed on a tight budget but sustaining that finish is difficult without finance. The loan market will be critical as will taking chances on young saleable assets with high potential.

The gap between the top two and plays offs, the play offs with teams just outside, those just outside and the rest of the division is much bigger now than ever before. To be honest anyone from 9th - 24th is unpredictable. The rest are largely expected.

We didn’t make the playoffs yet we’d blow most bottom half sides out of the water. Heck, we hit Gillingham for seven away from home but then look decidedly average at a Rotherham for example. It’s a league which I don’t think will offer all that many surprises as in previous seasons.

Am I missing something here? When did league one turn into the premier league? Yes, there's a few bigger boys down here but I'll reiterate that there's still a ceiling on the quality that can be brought in. It's division 3, it's a bit of un upgrade on division 4. The step up to the championship is huge, now that really is a league based on budgets. And then even more so in the premier league.

Again, I'll probably have egg on my face for saying this but league one is being talked up like it's serie A. All of these teams are down here for various reasons and they're playing 3rd division football for a reason....even those who chuck loads of money at it. Surely Wigan's and Rotherham's budget can't have been more than Wednesday's, Sunderlands, Ipswich, Portsmouth, Bolton, Mk Dons? Yet they finished above all of them. Wycombe finished above far higher budgets too. The only really additional 'big' teams added to the mix are Derby and to a lesser extent Barnsley.

League's are virtually impossible to predict and this will be another one. It never goes how you think it will.

 

[PuB]

Am I missing something here? When did league one turn into the premier league? Yes, there's a few bigger boys down here but I'll reiterate that there's still a ceiling on the quality that can be brought in. It's division 3, it's a bit of un upgrade on division 4. The step up to the championship is huge, now that really is a league based on budgets. And then even more so in the premier league.

Again, I'll probably have egg on my face for saying this but league one is being talked up like it's serie A. All of these teams are down here for various reasons and they're playing 3rd division football for a reason....even those who chuck loads of money at it. Surely Wigan's and Rotherham's budget can't have been more than Wednesday's, Sunderlands, Ipswich, Portsmouth, Bolton, Mk Dons? Yet they finished above all of them. Wycombe finished above far higher budgets too. The only really additional 'big' teams added to the mix are Derby and to a lesser extent Barnsley.

League's are virtually impossible to predict and this will be another one. It never goes how you think it will.

You’re in for a big shock if you don’t think there’s a big difference between the bottom half of league 1 and the top.

Plymouth missed out on the playoffs with 80 points, while down the other end Fleetwood stayed up on goal difference, 5th from bottom, on 40 points.

Yes, there are those who buck the trend (as always) but they are just the odd outliers.

 

[kieran_vale]

Am I missing something here? When did league one turn into the premier league? Yes, there's a few bigger boys down here but I'll reiterate that there's still a ceiling on the quality that can be brought in. It's division 3, it's a bit of un upgrade on division 4. The step up to the championship is huge, now that really is a league based on budgets. And then even more so in the premier league.

Again, I'll probably have egg on my face for saying this but league one is being talked up like it's serie A. All of these teams are down here for various reasons and they're playing 3rd division football for a reason....even those who chuck loads of money at it. Surely Wigan's and Rotherham's budget can't have been more than Wednesday's, Sunderlands, Ipswich, Portsmouth, Bolton, Mk Dons? Yet they finished above all of them. Wycombe finished above far higher budgets too. The only really additional 'big' teams added to the mix are Derby and to a lesser extent Barnsley.

League's are virtually impossible to predict and this will be another one. It never goes how you think it will.

Wigan are pretty minted I think am right in saying so they almost certainly will have spent more than some of those clubs mentioned. Peterborough coming down also will have enough resources behind them.

It’s way too early to be talking about this stuff as most teams barely started recruiting yet but especially now there is going to be five subs allowed it’s going to change the way the game is played and will be even more of a squad game than before. That naturally will favour teams with bigger budgets even more than it does right now.

 

[GeneralLee]

Am I missing something here? When did league one turn into the premier league? Yes, there's a few bigger boys down here but I'll reiterate that there's still a ceiling on the quality that can be brought in. It's division 3, it's a bit of un upgrade on division 4. The step up to the championship is huge, now that really is a league based on budgets. And then even more so in the premier league.

Again, I'll probably have egg on my face for saying this but league one is being talked up like it's serie A. All of these teams are down here for various reasons and they're playing 3rd division football for a reason....even those who chuck loads of money at it. Surely Wigan's and Rotherham's budget can't have been more than Wednesday's, Sunderlands, Ipswich, Portsmouth, Bolton, Mk Dons? Yet they finished above all of them. Wycombe finished above far higher budgets too. The only really additional 'big' teams added to the mix are Derby and to a lesser extent Barnsley.

League's are virtually impossible to predict and this will be another one. It never goes how you think it will.

You’re missing something.

I too think you’ll be in for a bit of a surprise. I don’t think anyone is suggesting League One sides are world beaters, however results speak for themselves. When sides like Sheffield Wednesday can call upon a Barry Bannan, over a season the gulf in quality is telling. He is a very very good player and frankly should be nowhere near League One. There are similarly good players playing their trade at League One. We have Cameron Brannagan. He‘a too good for us, but he’s a difference maker in midfield. Some of the better sides can count upon multiple standouts. Some of those play League One football because they choose to, others because they can’t get a Championship gig.

Nevertheless the top 8 can boast equally capable players. The difference between top and bottom is night and day. More worryingly the top 8 probably would struggle to stay up in the Championship.

I would suggest the sides 9th - 24th have dropped in quality by some distance whereas the sides 1st - 8th have improved. Games last season against the lesser sides were fun viewing but essentially a training exercise.

 

[masi51]

You’re missing something.

I too think you’ll be in for a bit of a surprise. I don’t think anyone is suggesting League One sides are world beaters, however results speak for themselves. When sides like Sheffield Wednesday can call upon a Barry Bannan, over a season the gulf in quality is telling. He is a very very good player and frankly should be nowhere near League One. There are similarly good players playing their trade at League One. We have Cameron Brannagan. He‘a too good for us, but he’s a difference maker in midfield. Some of the better sides can count upon multiple standouts. Some of those play League One football because they choose to, others because they can’t get a Championship gig.

Nevertheless the top 8 can boast equally capable players. The difference between top and bottom is night and day. More worryingly the top 8 probably would struggle to stay up in the Championship.

I would suggest the sides 9th - 24th have dropped in quality by some distance whereas the sides 1st - 8th have improved. Games last season against the lesser sides were fun viewing but essentially a training exercise.

keep your fishing rod in the shed.............9th Downwards you say
9th Bolton...............cast your line
10th Portsmouth
11th Ipswich
Them three will improve past Oxford this coming season
I dont see any of the three promoted teams worrying the top 11. Ipswich ended on 70 points while Accrington in 12th ended the season on 61 points. The table tells you where the in balance starts

 

[eric read]

keep your fishing rod in the shed.............9th Downwards you say
9th Bolton...............cast your line
10th Portsmouth
11th Ipswich
Them three will improve past Oxford this coming season
I dont see any of the three promoted teams worrying the top 11. Ipswich ended on 70 points while Accrington in 12th ended the season on 61 points. The table tells you where the in balance starts

What makes you say that?

We've been third, sixth, and eighth for the last three seasons and have retained all of last season's players that we wanted to. We now have the squad space, and money, for 5 or 6 top level additions. We're not some tinpot outfit that's just ridden our luck for a few months. We'll be up there again and it'll surprise no one.

 

[GeneralLee]

keep your fishing rod in the shed.............9th Downwards you say
9th Bolton...............cast your line
10th Portsmouth
11th Ipswich
Them three will improve past Oxford this coming season
I dont see any of the three promoted teams worrying the top 11. Ipswich ended on 70 points while Accrington in 12th ended the season on 61 points. The table tells you where the in balance starts

My question to you would be did any of those sides ever really threaten the top six (a fleeting run of form aside)?

The world isn’t against Bolton (who by the way we’re brilliant against us at the Kass). As evidenced, they performed well in part but never genuinely threatened to amass enough points and certainly weren’t consistent across a whole season. Portsmouth were rebuilding and will go again. Ipswich had a high turnover of playing staff and changed direction mid-season with their management. Poor might be a stretch, however none of those sides ever showed consistency to significantly trouble Plymouth, Ox, Wycombe, MK, Sheff Wednesday and Sunderland. Whether Bolton make the top six this season or not, there will still likely be a drop in quality across a whole season (heck, we didn’t even make the top six!) so we are part of the equation. None of of were good enough.

Case in point, I thought Ipswich gave us a real lesson at the Kass. But you get those sides that chop and change in January and have a go over a three month period but faltered over the rest of the campaign. It’ll happen again next season. Evidently over a whole season if a team doesn’t perform the table doesn’t lie (ourselves and our deficiencies included).

 

[cookiemonster]

What makes you say that?

We've been third, sixth, and eighth for the last three seasons and have retained all of last season's players that we wanted to. We now have the squad space, and money, for 5 or 6 top level additions. We're not some tinpot outfit that's just ridden our luck for a few months. We'll be up there again and it'll surprise no one.

Is Matty Taylor still in your mix? For some reason I wondered if we might be able to tempt him back here once he gets to the autumn of his playing days.

 

[BRFC_Gas]

Am I missing something here? When did league one turn into the premier league? Yes, there's a few bigger boys down here but I'll reiterate that there's still a ceiling on the quality that can be brought in. It's division 3, it's a bit of un upgrade on division 4. The step up to the championship is huge, now that really is a league based on budgets. And then even more so in the premier league.

Again, I'll probably have egg on my face for saying this but league one is being talked up like it's serie A. All of these teams are down here for various reasons and they're playing 3rd division football for a reason....even those who chuck loads of money at it. Surely Wigan's and Rotherham's budget can't have been more than Wednesday's, Sunderlands, Ipswich, Portsmouth, Bolton, Mk Dons? Yet they finished above all of them. Wycombe finished above far higher budgets too. The only really additional 'big' teams added to the mix are Derby and to a lesser extent Barnsley.

League's are virtually impossible to predict and this will be another one. It never goes how you think it will.

Its like the first day of secondary school and the older kids telling you that you are going to get a kick-in or head down the bogs.
Lets face it, if Wycombe can get promoted then finish in the play off final the last 2 seasons they were in L1, it cant be that hard.

 

[leedsvaliant]

You’re missing something.

I too think you’ll be in for a bit of a surprise. I don’t think anyone is suggesting League One sides are world beaters, however results speak for themselves. When sides like Sheffield Wednesday can call upon a Barry Bannan, over a season the gulf in quality is telling. He is a very very good player and frankly should be nowhere near League One. There are similarly good players playing their trade at League One. We have Cameron Brannagan. He‘a too good for us, but he’s a difference maker in midfield. Some of the better sides can count upon multiple standouts. of those play League One football because they choose to, others because they can’t get a Championship gig.

Nevertheless the top 8 can boast equally capable players. The difference between top and bottom is night and day. More worryingly the top 8 probably would struggle to stay up in the Championship.

I would suggest the sides 9th - 24th have dropped in quality by some distance whereas the sides 1st - 8th have improved. Games last season against the lesser sides were fun viewing but essentially a training exercise.

"play League One football because they choose to, others because they can’t get a Championship gig"

I think that's a key quote. No footballer would choose to play in league 1 if they were good enough to play higher and if they are good enough to play higher they would have got a championship gig by now.

I guess we'll see. I think last season was a bit of an anomaly in terms of points. I think it'll be a closer league.