Promotion thread

[The_Viking_Magpie]

I’m beginning to long for the day we can be a long ball struggling L1 club, at least for a season! It feels a long time for us Notts fans since we’ve been out of our depth in the 3rd tier of English football.

 

[Maple Hatter]

Should we go up I think we'll cope. We have a lot of young players who have made a lot of progress this year. The only issue I have is our central defence which has been a problem for a while now. That will need looking at. I'm also quite sure we would make the necessary investment to consolidate a league one position. Our style of football is more suited to league one than the more phsycial nature of league two. Accrington will do what they do best and that's loan or pick up fringe players from nearby clubs who are out of contract. Their major problem will be their lack of income to be able to afford the increased salary payments. If Wycome go up they will struggle with their limited squad. None of the teams that went up last season have struggled and two are near the play off positions. I'm not the least bit worried about the step up.

 

[AdamStag]

It does make you wonder how any of the 4 promoted clubs will fare in L1 next season. Without virtually entire squad overhauls a real struggle beckons. Those hoofing sides will get nowhere and there is a distinct lack of quality throughout. Yes, of course, I’d love to sneak in via the play offs but I can’t think of any of our current players who are L1 standard.

Mansfield and Notts have decided we don't want to be there, Swindon are having a chill in 9th

Had Coventry won the top 7 could have been confirmed.

There's no doubt a good number of our fans will turn on flitcroft (I won't and not saying it's big or clever) but he's 2 satuddays in a row we cant lose, Crewe and Chesterfield

 

[The_Viking_Magpie]

Yep Nottinghamshire saw the potential to go up to League One and both clubs didn’t really fancy it. The chairmen must be hoping Chesterfield stay up and Lincoln don’t go up for financial reasons. Better to be in L2 next season, perhaps?

We’ve had a slow puncture on our old bargain classic motor since about December, we are slowly coming to a stop. Whereas our near neighbours accelerated slowly but then got up to a good top speed and were crushing before all of a sudden hitting the handbrake (DF) at the business end of the season

 

[Indian Dan]

Things are starting to emerge with Flitcroft and his ‘management’ style at his time with us.

Hussey, who had been out injured since September, miraculously recovers when he left. He tweeted today he and Flitcroft had fallen out and was using the injury excuse for not picking him. Add to that his falling out with Vigouroux and there is an unhappy squad. Phil Brown alluded to things not being right behind the scenes and there had been a big clear the air meeting.

Him and Futcher have previous for sidelining players, bullying and not liking any fans’ favourites.

You need to get shot.

 

[JJ1532]

94 - Predicted Champions 2018
93 - Guaranteed Champions 2018
92 -
91 -
90 - Champions 2015
89 - Champions 2012
88 - Guaranteed Automatics 2018
87 - Champions 2016, 2017
86 -
85 - Automatic Promotion 2016
84 - Automatic Promotion 2012
83 - Predicted Automatics 2018
82 - Champions 2014 Guaranteed Play Offs 2018
81 -
80 - Champions 2013, Accrington(39)
79 -
78 - Automatic Promotion 2017
77 - Automatic Promotion 2013, 2014, Luton(41)
76 -
75 - Predicted Play Offs 2018
74 - Wycombe(41)
73 -
72 -
71 - Play Offs 2012
------------------------------------------------------------
70 - Play Offs 2016, 2017
69 - Play Offs 2015, Exeter(40)
68 - Play Offs 2013
67 - Notts County(41), Lincoln(40)
66 -
65 - Coventry(40)
-------------------------------------------------------------
64 -
63 - Play Offs 2014, Mansfield(40)
62 - Swindon(40)
61 - Colchester(41)

Forthcoming fixtures:

1st Accrington(39) - 80 points. Colchester(A), Exeter(H), Wycombe(A), Yeovil(H), Newport(A), Lincoln(H), Swindon(A)
2nd Luton(41) - 77 points. Yeovil(A), Crewe(H), Carlisle(A), Forest Green(H), Notts County(A)
3rd Wycombe(41) - 74 points. Yeovil(A), Lincoln(A), Accrington(H), Chesterfield(A), Stevenage(H)
---------------------------------------------------
4th Exeter(40) - 69 points. Cambridge(A), Accrington(A), Chesterfield(H), Crawley(H), Stevenage(A), Colchester(H)
5th Notts County(41) - 67 points. Coventry(H), Colchester(A), Yeovil(H), Grimsby(A), Luton(H)
6th Lincoln(40) - 67 points. Port Vale(A), Wycombe(H), Colchester(H), Coventry(A), Accrington(A), Yeovil(H)
7th Coventry(40) - 65 points. Notts County(A), Crawley(A), Stevenage(H), Lincoln(H), Cheltenham(A), Morecambe(H)
--------------------------------------------------
8th Mansfield(40) - 63 points. Crewe(H), Stevenage(A), Chesterfield(A), Port Vale(H), Yeovil(A), Crawley(H)
9th Swindon(40) - 62 points. Carlisle(H), Yeovil(H), Newport(A), Grimsby(H), Colchester(A), Accrington(H)
10th Colchester(41) - 61 points. Accrington(H), Notts County(A), Lincoln(A), Swindon(H), Exeter(A)

Wow, the superlatives probably don't do is justice for Accrington. 80 points now, they are all but up. No way are 3 other teams getting more than that to pip them. Promoted with games to spare, now they just have to go and win the title. Incredible.

Luton and Wycombe might not catch Accrington for top spot, but they solidified their automatic hopes with wins. Luton have 2 winnable games now, 6 points from those and they could be home and hosed. Although I think they have all but confirmed promotion, because again, not many of the chasing pack look capable of catching them with games running out. Wycombe don't play for 2 weeks due to Yeovil being in the Checkatrade final, no doubt they'll be nervously checking scores next Saturday.

Exeter move into 3rd and have a game in hand on Wycombe, couple of tricky away games next up for them. Can't afford any slip ups at Cambridge with Wycombe not playing next weekend. Notts County have blown their top 3 chances, they'll probably make the play offs given their remaining fixtures and the fact they have 3 home games left.

Lincoln are clicking into some impressive form, 6 games unbeaten now and back to back wins. Got some tricky games coming up, but they look to be heading into the play offs bang in form. Coventry, what in the name of all things holy was that?! 6-2 to Yeovil at Huish Park would be a shock, but at the Ricoh? Incredible. Need a reaction at Notts County next weekend.

As for the chasing pack, nobody want to go up? It seems not. Still, their run in is kind, I'm sure the Alex will help patch them up with a nice win next week. Swindon can't string any form together, but if they can get 7-9 points from their next 3 home games, they'll be right in the hunt.

Finally, we have a new entrant in 10th, as Colchester replace Carlisle. They are coming in hot, having won 3 in a row to make a late surge. They, like Carlisle, have probably left it too late, but who knows, they could do it. Too bad their run in is horrible.

With 5-6 games to go, would I be wrong in saying the top 3 is set, as is the top 7? Just need to sort out the order by the looks of it.

 

[Kenneth E End]

If Exeter lost today (they were losing), we would've been 10 points clear with 5 points left; thus could've been promoted on Saturday.

That's how close we are now.

 

[thewwfc]

Accy play us in two weeks time. I very much hope we can spoil their party.
Shame about the Wycombe result today, think they are getting away now

I very much hope Accy beat you 43-0 (goal difference is very important).

And there’s no way we’re “getting away”. We do have a long break now (thanks to Lincoln being in The Tinpot) which I guess is good for patching up some of the walking wounded, but in some ways I’d rather the games keep coming.

Also the rescheduled game could make key players a bit leggy and sluggish - who knows.

We’d struggle for sure with our Dad’s Army if, IF, we got to L1, but as I understand it you’re allowed to sign new players in the summer?

The last 2 times we’ve been promoted we’ve come straight back down - but both times we didn’t sort out our budget until late in the day (for reasons too dull to explain) which meant we missed out on a lot of our first picks and had to make do with scraps.

That said I suspect we’d struggle to pay competitive wages at L1 level, so we may well be stuck with the scraps anyway.

 

[dedwardp]

We would have to win all five of our remaining games to have a chance I think, which has no chance of happening. Even four wins and a draw is probably not enough. Losing to Crewe, Yeovil and Barnet a month ago has completely ruined our season.

We do seem to fare better against the teams above us though. We've won six games out of 13 against the top nine so far, whilst we've only won six games out of 22 against the bottom 11.

 

[JJ1532]

If Exeter lost today (they were losing), we would've been 10 points clear with 5 points left; thus could've been promoted on Saturday.

That's how close we are now.

Might want to check your maths there. Had they lost, then Lincoln were your nearest threats and they still have 6 games left. So 10 clear with 18 to play for. They lose next Saturday and you win, that's 15 to play for them and a 13 point gap, 14 accounting for goal difference.

In all likelihood, you will probably get promoted against us in 2 weeks time. Oh the joys.

 

[Luke Imp]

It does make you wonder how any of the 4 promoted clubs will fare in L1 next season. Without virtually entire squad overhauls a real struggle beckons. Those hoofing sides will get nowhere and there is a distinct lack of quality throughout. Yes, of course, I’d love to sneak in via the play offs but I can’t think of any of our current players who are L1 standard.

I was saying to GodsGift on Twitter earlier in the season that L1 seems to be the one where the league switches to a more footballing one and the more direct sides don't necessarily get the result to the extent that you can in L2 and the NL. Him covering Blackpool agreed that you could see the change in approach from teams in there.

I think the jump from L2 to L1 is probably bigger than NL to L2, and the latter is a big jump.

 

[Luke Imp]

Might want to check your maths there. Had they lost, then Lincoln were your nearest threats and they still have 6 games left. So 10 clear with 18 to play for. They lose next Saturday and you win, that's 15 to play for them and a 13 point gap, 14 accounting for goal difference.

In all likelihood, you will probably get promoted against us in 2 weeks time. Oh the joys.

Although we don't play next Saturday, so it'll probably be the game after you.

 

[JJ1532]

Although we don't play next Saturday, so it'll probably be the game after you.

Ah. Thank the gods. Could have done without those lot invading the pitch at full time.

 

[Laker]

I was saying to GodsGift on Twitter earlier in the season that L1 seems to be the one where the league switches to a more footballing one and the more direct sides don't necessarily get the result to the extent that you can in L2 and the NL. Him covering Blackpool agreed that you could see the change in approach from teams in there.

I think the jump from L2 to L1 is probably bigger than NL to L2, and the latter is a big jump.

My perception of League 1 is that there is a big gulf in quality between the top sides and the bottom ones in terms of the individual skill of the players and therefore the type of football played. This doesn’t seem to be quite so big in League 2.

 

[AdamStag]

Things are starting to emerge with Flitcroft and his ‘management’ style at his time with us.

Hussey, who had been out injured since September, miraculously recovers when he left. He tweeted today he and Flitcroft had fallen out and was using the injury excuse for not picking him. Add to that his falling out with Vigouroux and there is an unhappy squad. Phil Brown alluded to things not being right behind the scenes and there had been a big clear the air meeting.

Him and Futcher have previous for sidelining players, bullying and not liking any fans’ favourites.

You need to get shot.

I didn't want him in the fucking first place mate.

 

[denzel ecfc]

So we need 5 wins from 6 to go up automatically? Ain't gonna happen. Playoffs it is then (please let's not fail at Wembley again.. .)

 

[The_Viking_Magpie]

I didn't want him in the fucking first place mate.

Blame your obese mate the worshipped one, for rightly and royally rogering the players, staff, and above all the chairman who I genuinely feel sympathy for.

In other words the fat pr|ck has done the dirty on Mansfield Town FC. But that sums up that pair of blubber mercenaries perfectly , nobody should really be surprised he’s a former convicted criminal after all.

What a horrible horrible man, and ginger muppet. Blame him and only him for the handbrake

 

[The_Viking_Magpie]

Also surely the step up in divisions increases as you go up the footballing pyramid.

Championship to Premier League the biggest, then reducing as you go down the leagues?

That’s how I’ve always viewed it

 

[thewwfc]

So we need 5 wins from 6 to go up automatically?

Whoever said that?

We can choke quite easily thanks v. much - think how motivated Mr Tisdale and your players must be to go up at the expense of the dark lords of anti-football? All to play for.

 

[denzel ecfc]

Whoever said that?

We can choke quite easily thanks v. much - think how motivated Mr Tisdale and your players must be to go up at the expense of the dark lords of anti-football? All to play for.

I'm going by JJs analysis that 83 points is needed for automatics. So either 5 wins or 4 wins and 2 draws. Especially with our goal difference.
And I think Tisdale is mates with Ainsworth, he's not motivated who he finishes above, just where he finishes

 

[thewwfc]

Also surely the step up in divisions increases as you go up the footballing pyramid.

Championship to Premier League the biggest, then reducing as you go down the leagues?

That’s how I’ve always viewed it

From a fair few seasons of watching L1, albeit not recently - the big difference is that the (better) strikers are that much sharper, and you can’t hope that they won’t punish defensive howler after defensive howler else you’ll come unstuck - and badly.

Defenders are also less prone to said comedy howlers, so if you haven’t upgraded your strikers to allow for that, expect to score less.

Wingers still run about like headless chickens with more speed than skill, but even *they* have marginally more end product than at L2 level.

 

[thewwfc]

I'm going by JJs analysis that 83 points is needed for automatics.

Right, but it’s a projection, it’s not a done deal. Like anyone else, you just need to focus on winning your own games, and hoping us/Lu’un fuck up. God knows we’ve choked on multiple occasions in the run-in.

 

[Dave-Vale]

Are Accrington going to set a record for being promoted with the lowest average home crowds?

 

[Trapdoor]

Are Accrington going to set a record for being promoted with the lowest average home crowds?

Highly likely, what were fleetwood and burton averaging?

 

[Dave-Vale]

Highly likely, what were fleetwood and burton averaging?

Probably check Dagenham as well.

 

[Habbinalan]

Highly likely, what were fleetwood and burton averaging?

What are Accrington going to average? Perhaps creep above 1,700? I think they're on around 1,650 at the moment, just above Morecambe but below Barnet.

I assumed Blackpool would be a shoo in until I saw those figures but thanks to all us enjoying the bright lights of the seaside they averaged 3,581 last season - if anyone believes the figures the Oystons put out.

I then thought that Crawley and D & R might come close but Crawley managed an average of 3,257 (2011/12) and I think D & R probably come second. They managed only 2098 (2009/10).

Burton averaged 2,713 (2014-15) and Fleetwood 2,819 (2013-14).

 

[The Reverend Skyblue]

Right I have now recovered enough from yesterdays debacle to talk about it, actually I don't think I am.
See if I can do it tomorrow

 

[Davidimp]

What are Accrington going to average? Perhaps creep above 1,700? I think they're on around 1,650 at the moment, just above Morecambe but below Barnet.

I assumed Blackpool would be a shoo in until I saw those figures but thanks to all us enjoying the bright lights of the seaside they averaged 3,581 last season - if anyone believes the figures the Oystons put out.

I then thought that Crawley and D & R might come close but Crawley managed an average of 3,257 (2011/12) and I think D & R probably come second. They managed only 2098 (2009/10).

Burton averaged 2,713 (2014-15) and Fleetwood 2,819 (2013-14).

Accrington's current average is 1722.

 

[GEORGE]

The difference in skill between Championship and League one is enormous but the difference in League one and League two is significant. Looking at the sides in contention to get promoted from League 2 this season I really think only Luton will have any chance to establish themselves at the higher grade.For one thing you need to have money in order to compete with some of the bigger clubs. We ourselves spent over half a million on two players and I would say we are one of the poorer clubs budget wise. Accrington may surprise a few but others will be nearer the bottom.And after watching Bury on Friday I would stress if they can sort out their current problems will be challenging at the right end of the table.

 

[ASFC Tom]

Genuinely won't care if we struggle next year, or even get relegated straight back down. It will be worth it for promotion/winning the championship this year. Would rather have a year of success followed by relative disappointment than years more of mid table mediocrity. You never know, we may continue to confound expectations and have a great time in league one. I've always felt that underestimation by the opposition is our biggest asset. Long may it continue.

Also, we have never been relegated under Coleman. Just saying.