The annual relegation Thread

[springerbfc]

We went from 2nd on new years day to going down with the last kick of the season

It's happening again...

 

[Shotsfan1993]

I think our home record will keep us up eventually, we will win enough games there. On the 'home' table we are 9th. The away table......24th even with the win yesterday. We will need just poor away form to stay up instead of the current diabolical form.

The rest of the teams down there are generally just as bad at home or away with the possible exceptions of Aldershot who are middle of the road at home and most bizarrely, Maidenhead who are one of the best teams away from home in the whole league.

We've had a strange season, at the start we were really good away and awful at home, but since the end of September we've been great at home and dreadful away.

Important game today at the Racecourse, a win and we may well be looking at mid table mediocrity, a defeat and we're in big trouble.

 

[simonfromsurrey]

Two more wins and we'll be out of it. Not bad for a team that was supposed to be down by October

 

[CFC91]

Our next 3 home games are Fylde, Wrexham and Ebbsfleet. Suppose that will decide our fate pretty much

 

[Optipez]

No team is down yet, the gaps aren't enormous but it's looking bleak for Chorley and Ebbsfleet. Losing 7-0 isn't trying hard enough and without real effort to dig yourself out you drop.
I think Jim Bentley will turn Fylde around , Chesterfield need to get a run going and Maidenhead look to be on a bit of a slump.
Maybe it's just me but I find relegation battles fascinating although I'm happier when Notts aren't in them.
I'm guessing only three down and I'd go Chorley, Ebbsfleet and Wrexham. Wrexham haven't got an owner to chuck money in and a limited transfer window and have already sacked a manager.
Daggers may get a boost from the new manager, they need one and although they're well up the table Torquays goals against column puts huge pressure on the strikers to score at least two a game for a win, if they stop scoring before the defence tightens up it could spiral downwards quickly.

 

[Aeneas]

No team is down yet, the gaps aren't enormous but it's looking bleak for Chorley and Ebbsfleet. Losing 7-0 isn't trying hard enough and without real effort to dig yourself out you drop.
I think Jim Bentley will turn Fylde around , Chesterfield need to get a run going and Maidenhead look to be on a bit of a slump.
Maybe it's just me but I find relegation battles fascinating although I'm happier when Notts aren't in them.
I'm guessing only three down and I'd go Chorley, Ebbsfleet and Wrexham. Wrexham haven't got an owner to chuck money in and a limited transfer window and have already sacked a manager.
Daggers may get a boost from the new manager, they need one and although they're well up the table Torquays goals against column puts huge pressure on the strikers to score at least two a game for a win, if they stop scoring before the defence tightens up it could spiral downwards quickly.

Particularly if Reid is sold this month as rumoured. Still think they'll be alright regardless but leagues are littered with teams who spiral down the table and seem to fair worse than the 'scrappers' who have been there all season. At the moment, my money is on Dagenham or Maidenhead to join Chorley and Ebbsfleet.

Like with most predictions that's based on a fair dollop of bias (traditional 'size'/resources/results at a glance) rather than any actual intelligent insight. As we've already seen, a few results either way could change someone's fortunes dramatically. Sutton were 23rd ten games ago and Chesterfield hauled themselves out of trouble with 30 points in 16 games this time last year.

 

[chipmunx]

Particularly if Reid is sold this month as rumoured. Still think they'll be alright regardless but leagues are littered with teams who spiral down the table and seem to fair worse than the 'scrappers' who have been there all season. At the moment, my money is on Dagenham or Maidenhead to join Chorley and Ebbsfleet.

Like with most predictions that's based on a fair dollop of bias (traditional 'size'/resources/results at a glance) rather than any actual intelligent insight. As we've already seen, a few results either way could change someone's fortunes dramatically. Sutton were 23rd ten games ago and Chesterfield hauled themselves out of trouble with 30 points in 16 games this time last year.

and Barrow were 21st 19 games ago - so things can change around

 

[simonfromsurrey]

So then are we in agreement that its Ebbsfleet, Chorley + 1

I can't see Wrexham going down, or Chesterfield. Maidenhead look vulnerable

 

[chipmunx]

So then are we in agreement that its Ebbsfleet, Chorley + 1

I can't see Wrexham going down, or Chesterfield. Maidenhead look vulnerable

nope - it's really too early to tell - the middle of February will be a good time for agreements - but a lot of sides at the bottom will be signing players now and some might actually end up being good and improve the teams.

 

[BarraMatt]

Maidenhead down in addition to the current bottom two for me.

 

[GlynTheMilk]

I'm guessing only three down and I'd go Chorley, Ebbsfleet and Wrexham. Wrexham haven't got an owner to chuck money in and a limited transfer window and have already sacked a manager.

Not one owner, but a couple of thousand , and there is money in the bank. Quite a lot of it, by all accounts. Steady crowds and Danny Ward moving from Liverpool to Leicester. That doesn't mean we won't go down, it's just that money won't be the issue. Unless you count that the club is mainly being run by volunteers rather than full-time staff. A lot of people think this is the issue we have. They may be right, but full-time staff aren't immune from ballsing things up.

I can't see Wrexham going down, or Chesterfield. Maidenhead look vulnerable

Until recently, I'd have said the same, but watching us against Aldershot, we really were dogshit. Aldershot were awful (sorry Aldershot fans), but they were worthy winners and should've scored more. I'm starting to worry; Keates simply has to get January additions spot on, or we're toast. The only positive I can take is that it's only midfield that needs sorting, and he's already got one midfielder who is more than up to the task in Luke Young. The strikers are hampered by lack of service, the defence hampered by lack of protection, and Young hampered by having to do everything. Two or three decent midfielders and we'll be fine. Otherwise, and we could be getting the atlases out for next season.

 

[Soup Ladle]

Resurrection

So what do we reckon then? Are the current bottom 3 nailed on? Or is it 4 down? When will they actually just fucking tell us?

 

[AdamStag]

Resurrection

So what do we reckon then? Are the current bottom 3 nailed on? Or is it 4 down? When will they actually just fucking tell us?

It’ll be 3 down, why would the conference do it differently to what league 1 and 2 have done. Given chesterfield are involved I hope it’s 4, because if only 3 go down won’t it bugger the playoffs etc from the north and the south

 

[EnglishRed]

It’ll be 3 down, why would the conference do it differently to what league 1 and 2 have done. Given chesterfield are involved I hope it’s 4, because if only 3 go down won’t it bugger the playoffs etc from the north and the south

Not if only 1 is coming down.

At present if 2 go up, and 3 go down then we need 5 new teams next season. 1 from League 2 and 2 each from CN/S

They'll just move someone from the Midlands who is in the North this season into the south etc.

 

[Chief Rocka]

Chorley probably got their last nail hit in on Saturday losing to Ebbsfleet, Fylde have up to two games in hand on those around them but haven't won in 11 games, need to string some wins together sharpish and Ebbsfleet play Chesterfield Saturday, both need to win that.

What do we reckon safety target will be this year, surely must be low barring a miraculous up turn in form from the current bottom three, 45-46?

 

[#Beebot]

Not if only 1 is coming down.

At present if 2 go up, and 3 go down then we need 5 new teams next season. 1 from League 2 and 2 each from CN/S

They'll just move someone from the Midlands who is in the North this season into the south etc.

In theory it should all filter down based on PPG down to whatever level phoenix Bury come in at.

 

[doveranddover]

the north & south divs are being expanded to 24 teams next season so north/south swapping won't happen i suppose

 

[#Beebot]

the north & south divs are being expanded to 24 teams next season so north/south swapping won't happen i suppose

As things stand we're looking at an odd number of teams down from step 2 so one team will have to move with 8 promotions from step 3 at the end of the season.

 

[DarkSithLord]

As things stand we're looking at an odd number of teams down from step 2 so one team will have to move with 8 promotions from step 3 at the end of the season.

Why are we looking at a odd number of teams down from step 2?

 

[Onslaught]

Long shot,heard various rumours, at this end that we ,Bury could be admitted to the NLN next season,due to expansion, applied for NWCL so don't know

 

[AdamStag]

Long shot,heard various rumours, at this end that we ,Bury could be admitted to the NLN next season,due to expansion, applied for NWCL so don't know

Last I heard they were going into the NWCL1 like you said, I believe others have had to reform down there so or start again there so they should do also

 

[Master D]

Barnet and Chorley are gone, final 2 places will go to the wire IMO.

 

[Monkey Tennis]

Barnet and Chorley are gone, final 2 places will go to the wire IMO.

Barnet won the league when they beat us in the Trophy the other week.

 

[rudebwoyben]

Yeah, we’ll be the first team to simultaneously win the league and be relegated.

 

[#Beebot]

Why are we looking at a odd number of teams down from step 2?

Because Bury going under leaves a shortfall at every level down to wherever the phoenix club comes in.

 

[AdamStag]

The total lack of organisation is one of the few things I miss about the conference.

The league took the pretty obvious step of only relegating 1 side and as beebot said the issue gets passed down until it reaches whatever bury will go into, presumably the NWCL div 1.

Whyever would it take the conference so long to come to the same conclusion, surely when the usually farcical conference AGM takes place - presumably in a Wetherspoons somewhere - they’ll announce the same thing.

 

[BarraMatt]

Fylde will stay up.

 

[chipmunx]

Fylde will stay up.

probably - but i hope you're wrong....

 

[John Still]

Anyone from Maidenhead is still in this, could be anyone in that bunch as all are crap.

 

[joethegill]

Ebbsfleet have responded pretty well since the drubbing at Barrow - 2 wins and 2 draws in the 5 games since, with just one defeat coming against Harrogate. Beat Chesterfield at the weekend and they'll be just one point behind them, and possibly just one win away from getting out of the bottom 4. If only 3 go down this year, they've got half a chance now.