The Labour Thread

[Pliny Harris]

Owen Smith is standing. The Anyone But Corbyn vote is split.

 

[smat]

What is he doing? Is he hoping to force Eagle to quit the race?

Edit: The vote won't be split cos of AV

 

[Pagnell]

What a shambolic fucking mess. The Tories will be loving it. The Labour party have become a complete embarrassment, and I say that as someone who's never voted for anyone else.

 

[Aber gas]

https://twitter.com/yorkshire_rebel/status/752461550523473920
But of course it's Corbyn behind all the abuse ...

 

[Aber gas]

Might start a regular series. Labour belters against Corbyn. Stay tuned for updates.

 

[The Jovial Forester]

Time was when a brick through a window wouldn't even make the local papers, but now it's leading the national bulletins. Shithouse scabs.

 

[Aber gas]

Just one more for today. Here's a weirdo shitcrumple trying really, really hard to not link Corbyn to jo Cox's murder.

https://twitter.com/andrewspoooner/status/753127306374307841

 

[TheMinsterman]

Time was when a brick through a window wouldn't even make the local papers, but now it's leading the national bulletins. Shithouse scabs.

You live in an age where tweets are considered the height of emotional abuse.

 

[NorfolkWomble]

I don't understand how Corbyn backers are so ignorant to the fact he will not win a general election. If he has no chance in an election how can he effectively hold the govt. to account?

 

[The Jovial Forester]

I don't understand how Corbyn backers are so ignorant to the fact he will not win a general election. If he has no chance in an election how can he effectively hold the govt. to account?

I don't think it's true. Poll today has them neck and neck again despite this shenanigans and every sign the boom in membership can build momentum.
Also minded of a Tory writing during the first leadership campaign saying they should hope he doesn't win because he challenges the austerity narrative in a way new labour didn't and that will get through.

 

[Modernist]

I don't understand how Corbyn backers are so ignorant to the fact he will not win a general election. If he has no chance in an election how can he effectively hold the govt. to account?

Any politician who thinks their party's primary purpose is to get into power should not get anywhere near power.

 

[NorfolkWomble]

I don't think it's true. Poll today has them neck and neck again despite this shenanigans and every sign the boom in membership can build momentum.
Also minded of a Tory writing during the first leadership campaign saying they should hope he doesn't win because he challenges the austerity narrative in a way new labour didn't and that will get through.

Can I see the poll? Every one I have seen has had Tories 10+ ahead.

Any politician who thinks their party's primary purpose is to get into power should not get anywhere near power.

This is mindnumbingly stupid.

 

[The Paranoid Pineapple]

Can I see those polls? I haven't seen a single one with 10 digit plus Tory leads (although it's surely only a matter of time if this farce continues).

 

[The Jovial Forester]

Can't link off the phone, was a tweet of latest IpsosMori Westminster voting intention.
ETA does this work? https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/753187095687139329

 

[.V.]

Latest Poll has the Tories 1 point ahead on 36%. But the same poll (Ipsos Mori) shows people satisfied with Corbyn at 24% and Cameron at 28%.

 

[Renegade]

Polling data for the last two major votes had Labour and Conservatives neck and neck and the EU referendum as 10 point victory for Remain. We saw how both of those went. I won't be confident of a Labour victory unless they have a significant lead in the polls, many don't vote the way they say they will or shy Tories simply don't participate in these polls. In the wake of Brexit, I assumed Labour's support would have jumped ahead of the Tories in any opinion poll, which doesn't fill me with much confidence if a general election is called before 2020.

 

[Gashead]

Any politician who thinks their party's primary purpose is to get into power should not get anywhere near power.

No change is ever achieved by not even thinking about power, Momentum and co. suggesting that elections aren't that important or whatever they said is extremely worrying.

The key is finding a balance, rather than putting power above principles all of the time or vice versa.

 

[The Jovial Forester]

Polling data for the last two major votes had Labour and Conservatives neck and neck and the EU referendum as 10 point victory for Remain. We saw how both of those went. I won't be confident of a Labour victory unless they have a significant lead in the polls, many don't vote the way they say they will or shy Tories simply don't participate in these polls. In the wake of Brexit, I assumed Labour's support would have jumped ahead of the Tories in any opinion poll, which doesn't fill me with much confidence if a general election is called before 2020. I

Yeah, polls clearly not a certain guide but also can't see why it wouldn't go the other way, underestimating Labour support in same way referendum polling underestimated appetite for change (any change). Either way, point is it's not a lost situation but something that can be built on.

 

[Gashead]

Polling data for the last two major votes had Labour and Conservatives neck and neck and the EU referendum as 10 point victory for Remain. We saw how both of those went. I won't be confident of a Labour victory unless they have a significant lead in the polls, many don't vote the way they say they will or shy Tories simply don't participate in these polls. In the wake of Brexit, I assumed Labour's support would have jumped ahead of the Tories in any opinion poll, which doesn't fill me with much confidence if a general election is called before 2020.

I think people overestimate the idea that the polls are always wrong.

Leave led consistently in the run up to the referendum, No led consistently before indy ref, Cons led consistently before the last election. Important to consider these things as a trend, rather than as individual polls.

 

[Aber gas]

The NEC are planning to "ban" constituency Labour parties from meeting during the election. That'll go down well.....

https://twitter.com/skynewsbreak/status/753177655512539136

 

[SUTSS]

I think people overestimate the idea that the polls are always wrong.

Leave led consistently in the run up to the referendum, No led consistently before indy ref, Cons led consistently before the last election. Important to consider these things as a trend, rather than as individual polls.

Also elections easier to poll because of historical data.

The problem with polling for elections is that vote share doesn't equal seat share. Polling exclusively in the key target seats would probably give you a better indication of the outcome.

 

[The Paranoid Pineapple]

I think people overestimate the idea that the polls are always wrong.

Leave led consistently in the run up to the referendum, No led consistently before indy ref, Cons led consistently before the last election. Important to consider these things as a trend, rather than as individual polls.

Yes, indeed. A couple of pollsters got it horribly wrong in their last published EU Ref polls but then again others (TNS & Opinium) were really very close. They all pretty much got in wrong in the last general election but have made lots of methodology changes in the wake of that. I think it's probably fair to say that this is a challenging time for the polling industry but would definitely hold that polls remain useful as a general guide and are largely pretty effective when it comes to identifying trends.

Think I'd agree with Ren though re Labour - they really need a decent lead over a sustained period prior to a GE before I'd particularly fancy their chances.

 

[Aber gas]

Polls right now are fairly pointless really. New prime minister, labour leadership up in the air, UKIP completely irrelevant, Lib Dems err ..are they even still going? Parliament off for it's holibobs. Not sure any poll now is going to have much relevance to any forthcoming elections.

 

[merseyboyred]

I'd ignore any YouGov poll in particular atm, their sampling seems pretty horrible.

 

[SUTSS]

Polls right now are fairly pointless really. New prime minister, labour leadership up in the air, UKIP completely irrelevant, Lib Dems err ..are they even still going? Parliament off for it's holibobs. Not sure any poll now is going to have much relevance to any forthcoming elections.

We'll also probably see the Tories picking up a fair bit in the polls with a honeymoon effect for May. Although we could see it going the other way with some eurosceptic Tory support breifly saying they'd support UKIP with May a remainer before coming back after a couple of months.

 

[.V.]

http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandpolicy/could-labour-win-an-election-by-mobilising-non-voters/

 

[Kopper]

I don't understand how Corbyn backers are so ignorant to the fact he will not win a general election. If he has no chance in an election how can he effectively hold the govt. to account?

We know he won't win a general election, but no left leaning candidate will. I would rather JC than an empty suit.

 

[Abertawe]

I don't understand how Corbyn backers are so ignorant to the fact he will not win a general election. If he has no chance in an election how can he effectively hold the govt. to account?

This coup only came about because they recognised that he had a clear path to winning a general election. Stop forming opinion from headlines and look at the country and even the world as a whole. People are looking for new directions and the establishment is flailing, all over the world it's resulting in previous irrelevant parties or movements coming to the fore. Whether that be the right wing national front in France, Party for Freedom in Holland or the very exciting Five Star Movement in Italy, all are on the verge of achieving something historic, all are also anti-EU. Further afield the Liberal Party came from nowhere to win Canada, using basically all the policies Corbyn calls for. Then we have Trump, the ultimate protest vote. The establishment is toppling.

 

[Max]

And again that comes down to theory. We haven't seen any evidence that proves Corbyn is unelectable. Please stop with your condescending self-pompous tones unless you're trotting out verifiable facts.

I'm so glad you asked.

Exhibit A: Opposition leaderdership ratings after 10 mths:
Foot - 32
Kinnock -7
Smith +1
Blair +29
Hague -16
IDS - 9
Howard -15
Cameron -1
Ed M -7
Corbyn -41

Exhibit B: His popularity AMONG LABOUR MEMBERS is now -3%

Exhibit C: 70% of Union members don't think he can win a general election.

I have always provided you evidence. You have always ignored it.

 

[Abertawe]

I'm so glad you asked.

Exhibit A: Opposition leaderdership ratings after 10 mths:
Foot - 32
Kinnock -7
Smith +1
Blair +29
Hague -16
IDS - 9
Howard -15
Cameron -1
Ed M -7
Corbyn -41

Exhibit B: His popularity AMONG LABOUR MEMBERS is now -3%

Exhibit C: 70% of Union members don't think he can win a general election.

I have always provided you evidence. You have always ignored it.

Oh dear, that's theorising.

Your infatuation with making Corbyn look like the anti-christ is strange. If you really do stand for the things you purport to do then you need saving from yourself, let's leave it at that.